No Zimmerman Telegram

Let's say that Germany does declare USW, but doesn't have the Zimmerman telegram.

  • DOW

    Votes: 19 47.5%
  • 80% chance DOW

    Votes: 10 25.0%
  • 50% chance DOW

    Votes: 6 15.0%
  • 20% chance DOW

    Votes: 4 10.0%
  • No DOW

    Votes: 2 5.0%
  • DOW, but altered in some way (explain below)

    Votes: 3 7.5%

  • Total voters
    40

tenthring

Banned
Let's say that Germany does declare USW, but doesn't have the Zimmerman telegram. Does this avoid or in any way change the US Declaration of War?
 
The Zimmermann Telegram was not the reason for the declaration of war - it was an excuse. The reason for them entering the war was tied to USW damaging their economic interests, which does not change without the telegram. It is quite probable that the US would have entered the war anyway.
 
If unrestricted sub warfare continues, the US will join eventually no matter what. America's already maintaining its little well-its-neutrality-but-really-we're-giving-Britain-arms.

Assuming Germany knows this, it's better for them to send the telegram anyway on the off chance that Mexico will actually attack the US. Mexico will get slaughtered, but the European scene is a lot brighter for Germany.
 
If unrestricted sub warfare continues, the US will join eventually no matter what. America's already maintaining its little well-its-neutrality-but-really-we're-giving-Britain-arms.

Assuming Germany knows this, it's better for them to send the telegram anyway on the off chance that Mexico will actually attack the US. Mexico will get slaughtered, but the European scene is a lot brighter for Germany.

There was negative chance that Mexico would attack while embroiled in a civil war. Their best approach would have involved not doing unrestricted submarine warfare, period. Starving Britain out completely wasn't the ideal way to win the war anyways.
 

ben0628

Banned
No telegram means Dow is delayed, potentially allowing Germans to capture Paris before significant amounts of American troops arrive. Idk if that would end the war though, I personally feel that America and GB would fight on.
 
No telegram means Dow is delayed, potentially allowing Germans to capture Paris before significant amounts of American troops arrive. Idk if that would end the war though, I personally feel that America and GB would fight on.
Beat me to it lol.
Basically that is it, Wilson will need another excuse to join the war since as far as I know the US was mad about USW but not "let's go to war" mad about it, and who knows how long that'll take. Now, if there's no declaration yet, does Germany still plan for the Kaiserschlacht or do they adopt a different strategy?
 
If unrestricted sub warfare continues, the US will join eventually no matter what. America's already maintaining its little well-its-neutrality-but-really-we're-giving-Britain-arms.

Though that could become less of an issue if Britain's financial difficulties (absent unsecured US loans) lead to a drastic curtailment of imports from the US. There might be fewer American merchantmen out there to be sunk.
 
No telegram means Dow is delayed, potentially allowing Germans to capture Paris before significant amounts of American troops arrive. Idk if that would end the war though, I personally feel that America and GB would fight on.
Given the German troups were very raw and had to be trained by the French until being in fighting shape, I'm not sure a slight delay would mean much in term of the front.
 
Unrestricted submarine warfare is not something the US can ignore. American ships were sunk, American lives were lost. Sure, the DoW might come a month or so later without Zimmerman's, but it would come.
 
There was negative chance that Mexico would attack while embroiled in a civil war. Their best approach would have involved not doing unrestricted submarine warfare, period. Starving Britain out completely wasn't the ideal way to win the war anyways.
I agree. My comment was assuming that Germany was going to do USW no matter what. The "off-hand" was a bit of an understatement.

Though that could become less of an issue if Britain's financial difficulties (absent unsecured US loans) lead to a drastic curtailment of imports from the US. There might be fewer American merchantmen out there to be sunk.
Possibly, but the question is if the US would be willing to go back into complete (or almost-complete) neutrality at any point after so blatantly (though secretively) supporting Britain.
 
Unrestricted submarine warfare is not something the US can ignore. American ships were sunk, American lives were lost. Sure, the DoW might come a month or so later without Zimmerman's, but it would come.


True, but that could have been a while.

After the sinking of the Aztec on April 1 there was no further American loss of life until April 28 when the Vacuum was torpedoed, and then no more until the sinking of the Rockingham on May 16. All other sinkings in this period followed "cruiser rules" and caused no casualties. So if the Vigilancia and Aztec sinkings had not suffice to make up Wilson's mind, it could be well into May before he did so. It is one of the oddities of the whole "USW" caper that Germany accepted war with the US for quite literally the right to sink an additional two or three ships, some even of which might have been sinkable by cruiser rules if the U-boat captains had been so minded.

Most likely the sinkings would still have led to war at some point. But with Wilson one never knows. Had h still been neutral in early May, he would probably have been aware of the enormous rate at which British ships were going down. Herbert Hoover recalled that on his return to America, his ship heard numerous distress signal from sinking vessels, but dared not respond for fear of herself attracting the attention of a U-boat. It also passed within fifty feet of two mines. In such circs, Wilson might have come to think (erroneously but he mightn't know that) that entering the war was futile because American troopships would just get sunk on the way. Probably not, but you never can tell. He's a hard guy to read.
 
If a nation declares war on the US, the US has to declare war back.

Germany did not declare war on the US in 1917 - though she did in 1941.

However, a pretty good case could be made that attacks without warning on US vessels amounted to waging war against the US, whether declared or not.
 
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