No Spanish Civil War?
- Thread starter Roberto
- Start date
For Spain to avoid the war the Popular Front government needs to not come to power, or have nationalist, and traditionalist elements with in it. Perhaps the land reforms could be attempted at a slower pace, and with the input of the other political parties. For there was a great fear that it was only a matter of days before Communism took hold in Spain.
I'd say Franco coming to power without the army is difficult. Franco lacked any consistent political ideology other than fierce anti-communism. He was able to play nationalist, monarchist, fascist, the church, centralist, so perhaps if he did go into politics he could get power by means of a coalition government.
I'd say Franco coming to power without the army is difficult. Franco lacked any consistent political ideology other than fierce anti-communism. He was able to play nationalist, monarchist, fascist, the church, centralist, so perhaps if he did go into politics he could get power by means of a coalition government.
Well one could expect a civil war of some kind. The monarchy was not taking care of the Spanish population, and it could be a repeat of the first Spanish Civil War. It would be Royalists v. Liberals pushing for government reform. For despite the bad reputation the Republicans got in the war, for the most part they were planning very little reforms to the system.
The Popular front was going to keep the monarchy, and most things, but make changes to the banking system, as well as change land laws to make it easier on the lower and middle class.
Markus
Banned
That´s easy. The fascists started the coup in the African colonies 24 hours before the coup in the Spanish mainland began. Trade union leaders and so on asked the government for weapons immediately. They wanted to blockade the barracks of the Spanish army, to discourage or trap and rebellious units. Wherever they did that, the troops either remained loyal or were quickly defeated.
That was option No.1, here is No.2:
The governments of other democratic countries permit the sale of arms to the democratically elected government of Spain while taking steps to prevent or at least reduce arms shipments to the fascists.
And last but not least No.3:
France, faced with the prospect of being surrounded by fascist dictatorships answers to a call form the spansih government and deploys a two or three regular divisions –perhabs the FL or colonial units- to help put down the coup.
Given the lack of guts and back the governments of France and not-so Great Britain showed, the best way to handle thing is No.1.
That was option No.1, here is No.2:
The governments of other democratic countries permit the sale of arms to the democratically elected government of Spain while taking steps to prevent or at least reduce arms shipments to the fascists.
And last but not least No.3:
France, faced with the prospect of being surrounded by fascist dictatorships answers to a call form the spansih government and deploys a two or three regular divisions –perhabs the FL or colonial units- to help put down the coup.
Given the lack of guts and back the governments of France and not-so Great Britain showed, the best way to handle thing is No.1.
1.) That still has a civil war, if weapons are sent to one side over another then that means fighting will go on.
2.) There was a lot more then fascist's involved. The nationalists, clergy, centerists, and all manner of pro-monarchy groups almost ensured the Popular front government was not favored by the elite.
3.)The army did the initial movements against the government, with assistance with the paramilitary assault guard acting along side them. The first troop movements occured with the colonies yes, but that was because local garrison's were expected to simple take over the town they where in. Almost 70% of the army sided with Franco.
I think I've got a POD that prevents the Spanish Civil War. In 1933, instead of choosing Lerroux to be vice-president, invites Gil-Robles. According to my sources, if he was VP, he would have reacted to the turmoil leading up to the Civil War a lot better than Lerrous did OTL. That's something to work with, at least.
Well it may and it may not. Gil-Robles was in charge of the CEDA, and for the most part it was pro-Nationalist during the Civil War. In fact when three CEDA men where appointed Ministers in 1934 it started the leftist Revolution of October 1934. Most paint him as a accidentalist, not supporting republicanism, yet accepting it as the constitutional structure of the time. Some even claim he advocated a return to monarchy. The man made so many speeches tailored to so many crowds it is difficult to tell just what his stance was in terms of politics other then he was right leaning.
You can avoid the Spanish Civil War only if the right remains in power, presumably by tampering with the election results. However, in that case you cannot avoid extensive rioting or outright insurrections in some cities. The right may remain in power, but Spain will be rocked by continuing internal strife and instability.
As to Franco coming to power, I don't see it. If the rightist politicians are in charge, they will woo the army, certainly, and possibly use it to quell the rioting if the Guardia Civil isn't enough, but they weren't keen on disposing of their power. Besides, even assuming a military figure comes to the fore in politics, it may well not be Franco; remember the peculiar series of accidents that made way for him.
As to Franco coming to power, I don't see it. If the rightist politicians are in charge, they will woo the army, certainly, and possibly use it to quell the rioting if the Guardia Civil isn't enough, but they weren't keen on disposing of their power. Besides, even assuming a military figure comes to the fore in politics, it may well not be Franco; remember the peculiar series of accidents that made way for him.
Admiral Canaris
Banned
Or we could just let the initial rebellions succeed in a few more cities, perhaps even Madrid itself. Then it wouldn't have been a drawn-out war, but rather a quick, relatively bloodless coup. Since the main problem of the early risings was lack of co-ordination, this shouldn't be impossible. The government then comes to include all the right-wing factions: Robles from the CEDA, Generals like Mola or Franco, the-Carlist-leader-whose-name-I've-forgotten and perhaps even Primo de Rivera (the younger) from the Falange if the Republicans gave up without a fight and released him.
This would also have various repercussions on the coming Second World War, including a stronger Italian economy and military, since Mussolini wouldn't waste the amounts of money and materiel he did on the war IOTL. Spain, on the other hand, would also be a little stronger, but probably remain neutral. There wouldn't be a great famine or hundreds of thousands of prisoners, but there would still be widespread unrest and dissent.
This would also have various repercussions on the coming Second World War, including a stronger Italian economy and military, since Mussolini wouldn't waste the amounts of money and materiel he did on the war IOTL. Spain, on the other hand, would also be a little stronger, but probably remain neutral. There wouldn't be a great famine or hundreds of thousands of prisoners, but there would still be widespread unrest and dissent.
A quick coup would not have worked either. For Franco was in chrage of the most experinced faction of the military at the time, and he was given somewhat de facto control of the operations. Much of his planning involved a long war to get rid of as much Republican forces, and sympathy as possible.
Say what one likes but Franco had an amazing ability to play sides against each other, and see the bigger picture.
Say what one likes but Franco had an amazing ability to play sides against each other, and see the bigger picture.
But the initial plan was to seize power ASAP. The longer war may have suited Franco, but it wasn't the intention. However a quick successful coup probably does not result in Franco as leader, but rather some junta led by Sanjurjo or Mola.
A Falange government would be interesting, but hard to achieve with such strong anarchist and socialist opposition.
Ultimately though, the easiest way to avoid the civil war is to take an early POD, and have some reforms instituted by Rivera or by a subsequent regime that defuse some of the tensions. Limited land reform or taxation reform could do it.
Also for the quick action to work you need so much control that the nationalists did not have. They expected full naval support, but while the officers where nationalists the crews supported the Republic. Without the navy the 30,000 Army of Africa cannot get to the mainland in proper order. Conversly the Government needs control that it just does not have either, for in the same amount of time that the Nationalists rose up, anarchists and communists did as well in places like Asturias and Catalonia
Well you'd need a quick takeover of power centres. Madrid would be a good start. You're right in that they would be unlikely to grab the navy and some parts of the country straight off, but a month or two of localised fighting would finish them off, and there'd be little foreign support for the opposition, who wouldn't have much credibility as a continuing government.