No Spanish Civil War at all

Never seen this one before. When the question comes up it concerns the outcome of the civil war. But, what would be the consequences of the government of 1937 dodging the outbreak of revolt & managing a coalition closer to center, defusing the situation?

1. No Spanish Civil War 1937-39 to distract Europe from other matters.

2. No test ground for the German Wehrmacht

3. No failures in Spain for the Italian army to add to the disillusionment of the Ethiopean failures.

4. No outwash of Spainish leftist refugees to populate dismal camps such as those at Vernet France.

5. A better Spainish economy post 1939.

Any other consequences in any ones opnion?
 
Another possible PoD would be having the Popular Front take the warnings of discontent and an impending coup in the military seriously instead of dismissing them in hopes of making the problem go away by ignoring it. Proactive efforts to sack untrustworthy military officers, reorganize the Army of Africa, and other moves could have broken up the necessary networks of soon to be Francoist officers required for the Civil War to happen in the first place.
 
Another possible PoD would be having the Popular Front take the warnings of discontent and an impending coup in the military seriously instead of dismissing them in hopes of making the problem go away by ignoring it. Proactive efforts to sack untrustworthy military officers, reorganize the Army of Africa, and other moves could have broken up the necessary networks of soon to be Francoist officers required for the Civil War to happen in the first place.

Well, the proactive efforts you mention were in the books, I mean, in the plans of the Popular Front and they were one of the reasons to convince the africanist generals to take action. But as you say, if Casares quiroga had taken seriously the warnings about the ongoing coup, things could have been different. Another similar POD is Dr. Strangelove's POD for his No spanish War TL, were Franco never joins the coup (he doubted till the last moment) and the other generals backpedal or are arrested since they can assure the Army of Africa.

A previous POD, back in time, could be after Sanjurjo's coup attempt in 1932. Many of the ploters were also important pieces in the 1936 coup. There is a letter from Lázaro Cárdenas to Manuel Azaña where he recommendedd Azaña to execute the ploters, but Azaña replied that he preferred to be cautious, ironies of history.
 
I would say that the most obvious POD would have been for the Fronte Popular to recognize that the popular vote had been evenly divided between the right and the left and make an effort to avoid the most controversial policies (which might have caused a rift with the extreme left, but this might have led to a government's shift toward the centre and a possible support from moderates on the other side).

The same thing would have happened if the right won, probably with even a smaller majority in Parliament. OTOH, if the right does not see the light of reason there will be strikes and popular insurrections, up to and including a civil war.

Another possibility would be if the Stresa front holds and manages to implement common policies in Europe: the Hoare-Laval proposal would avoid the war in Ethiopia, Hitler's aggressive moves would have been stopped (or at least made much more difficult and risky) and last but not least the would-be golpists would not have the expectation (if not reassurance) of Italian and German support. Even if the pronunciamento still happens, the Spanish navy - mostly republican leaning - would have been in the position to interdict the transport of the army of Africa to the mainland. France, UK and Italy might certainly enforce a ban on arms supplies and butterfly away the German intervention. At worst a limited insurrection (Franco would almost certainly sit it out) easily suppressed by the government. After which one may hope that there would not be a major purge of rightist elements and some effort to mend fences.
 
After which one may hope that there would not be a major purge of rightist elements and some effort to mend fences.

This would have been a terrible idea. The rightist elements of the military refused to recognize the Republic's legitimacy or right to exist. Any who actively supported or were involved in the coup would need to be removed from power at the bare minimum to prevent another coup from happening again. It would be extremely foolish not to. It would also make a lot of sense, and probably win some support from the anti-clerical Spanish peasantry, to enact a campaign of Spanish laicete to break similar rightist blocs within the Church.
 
This would have been a terrible idea. The rightist elements of the military refused to recognize the Republic's legitimacy or right to exist. Any who actively supported or were involved in the coup would need to be removed from power at the bare minimum to prevent another coup from happening again. It would be extremely foolish not to. It would also make a lot of sense, and probably win some support from the anti-clerical Spanish peasantry, to enact a campaign of Spanish laicete to break similar rightist blocs within the Church.

Definition of "purge":
noun
1.
an abrupt or violent removal of a group of people.
"the savagery of government's political purges"

It is quite obvious that high-ranking officers who rebel against a legitimate government cannot be left in their position. There is however a major difference between cashiering (or even giving prison terms after due process) said officers and putting them against a wall to be shot.
If the Popular Front looses control of the situation and the botched coup ends up in a blood bath it is not good news for Spain.

BTW, what ever gave you the idea that Spanish peasantry was anti-clerical? There was certainly a strong anti-clerical sentiment on the left, among industrial workers and miners, but among the peasantry....
 
I would say that the most obvious POD would have been for the Fronte Popular to recognize that the popular vote had been evenly divided between the right and the left and make an effort to avoid the most controversial policies...

They don't even have to do that. All they need to do is show they are serious about cracking down on left-wing violence, and that they are not a Trojan Horse for the Red Left to overthrow the Republic.

Unfortunately, Azaña was obsessed with anti-clericalism and anti-monarchism, and since the Reds were "sound" on those points, he refused to acknowledge their underlying hostility to the "bourgeois democracy" of the Republic.
 
I think that this thread is ignoring the increasing polarisation of Spanish politics throughout the republic. The idea that the popular front would or could ditch the left and move to the centre is so unlikely in the increasingly fevered atmosphere of 1936. A narrow victory is seen as a victory not as an opportunity for reconciliation. Largo Cabellero for example dramatically increases the tone of his rhetoric such that this once moderate socialist is being described as the Spanish Lenin.

Re the anticlerical violence which contributed to the civil war, it was most extreme in the towns but it was rural as well indeed the only part of republican spain not really affected was the basque area where basque nationalism was at home with the catholic clergy.

Throughout the second spanish republic there were politicians of goodwill who acted in the best interests of everyone (Gimenez Fernandez the right agriculture minister who endeavoured but failed to introduce a measure of land reform) but their efforts were continually stymied by the forces they were up against.

Personally I think that the best way forward would have been for the Azana government in 1931 to make a strategic decision on whether to accommodate the church or the army, my money would be on the army as there were progressive elements there.
 
Thanks for that insight. Not being familar enough with Spanish political history I'd left the question of PoD open. More interested in effects than cause.

At this point it is unclear to me what item #1 implies:

"1. No Spanish Civil War 1937-39 to distract Europe from other matters."

Would be of large consequence in the other key events of European politics of 1937-39. Would the decisions of the German, French, British, & Italian leaders change that much?
 
They don't even have to do that. All they need to do is show they are serious about cracking down on left-wing violence, and that they are not a Trojan Horse for the Red Left to overthrow the Republic.

Unfortunately, Azaña was obsessed with anti-clericalism and anti-monarchism, and since the Reds were "sound" on those points, he refused to acknowledge their underlying hostility to the "bourgeois democracy" of the Republic.

If we go this way, you don't have a civil war if the landowners, conservative generls, clergy, ndustrialist and co. had accepted they had been ruling an oppresive state that kept down peasants and workers and generated untenable inequalities, so they would have accepted progressive reforms before instead of pushing the masses towards revolutionary action :rolleyes:

Unfortunatelly history rarelly works that way. But damn the oppressed for not accepting their opression.





I think that this thread is ignoring the increasing polarisation of Spanish politics throughout the republic. The idea that the popular front would or could ditch the left and move to the centre is so unlikely in the increasingly fevered atmosphere of 1936. A narrow victory is seen as a victory not as an opportunity for reconciliation. Largo Cabellero for example dramatically increases the tone of his rhetoric such that this once moderate socialist is being described as the Spanish Lenin.

Re the anticlerical violence which contributed to the civil war, it was most extreme in the towns but it was rural as well indeed the only part of republican spain not really affected was the basque area where basque nationalism was at home with the catholic clergy.

Throughout the second spanish republic there were politicians of goodwill who acted in the best interests of everyone (Gimenez Fernandez the right agriculture minister who endeavoured but failed to introduce a measure of land reform) but their efforts were continually stymied by the forces they were up against.

Personally I think that the best way forward would have been for the Azana government in 1931 to make a strategic decision on whether to accommodate the church or the army, my money would be on the army as there were progressive elements there.


Those are good points. It was a very difficult political climate to sail. It was like that all around Europe in the period, and in Spain there were sectors whose privileges were too obvious to be ignored (mainly the Church and the southern landowners) In the case of the church the monopoly over education and the sponsor of the state, and in the case of the landowners their staunchy opposition to land reform. The tenssions created by these situations, and others, had led to previous events that created resentment. The repression of the landless peasants in Extremadura in the late 20's was brutal, the repression of the asturian miners in 1917 and 1932 was even more brutal. Thousands of union members were in prision...no Frente Popular government can ignore the bad blood accumulated for decades in the left after being always in the receivng end. The strategy should go taking into consideration this and fnd a way to adress the issue with the maximun possible level of moderation, but at some point confrontational measures are going to be taken. There is also the issue of the forces that opposd the republic since the first moment, before any revolutionary threat to blame, which didn't help to reconciliation.

I think Azaña looked actually to accomodate the army (he was minister of the army) but again you have the old problems. Useless officers entrenched in their privileges opposing any meainingful reform to make a more efficient army, let aside a more democratic one. An army with low prestige after their "glorious" campaings in the Rif, in a war where the class divide was reflected in the death toll... I obviously have bias, but blaming the left for attempting to take down outdated and immobilist power structures is rather unfair and ignores spanish history since 1815 till 1936, specially since the bourbonic restoraton. Every reform attempt in that period faced unflexible opposition from certain social sectors, and every progressive regime was toppled down by the same forces.The methods and political calculations are another matter, and probablt many weren't the most clever, but considering the context, having a cold mind was not easy. So, yeah, even a narrow victory was seen like "finally, this is our hour, let's make them understand how does it feel"

PD: The influence of the anti-clerical violence sparking the war is overstated. There was also anticlreical violence under the monarchy and it didn't led to a civil war. And when I say anticlerical violence, I mean this:

Semana_Tr%C3%A1gica_(1909).jpg

Semana Trágica, 1919. Churches burn in Barcelona

For some reason nobody accused the monarchic regime for this like they did with the Republic. The forces that opposed the republic and its reforms opposed them for other reasons.
 
Thanks for that insight. Not being familar enough with Spanish political history I'd left the question of PoD open. More interested in effects than cause.

At this point it is unclear to me what item #1 implies:

"1. No Spanish Civil War 1937-39 to distract Europe from other matters."

Would be of large consequence in the other key events of European politics of 1937-39. Would the decisions of the German, French, British, & Italian leaders change that much?

May I say that that is the big problem that I see in discussions around the Spanish Civil War. Because of its timing and European position and the involvement of Italy and Germany and to a lesser extent Soviet Russia, the Spanish Civil war is all too often seen as a microcosm of what was happening in Europe and of the idealogical conflicts of the era. A dress rehearsal for WW2 is often one way that it it put.

But the causes of the Spanish Civil war and in many ways the way that it was fought were intrinsically Spanish, something that caused considerable confusion to those of both left and right who went to support their cause.

Similarly the outcome of the Spanish Civil war should I believe be seen in how it affects Spain first. The idea that a republican Spain would somehow have a decisive effect on WW2 is I think unlikely and I don't think that Hitler would have invaded it, what would have been the point? Nor would a republican Spain have automatically come in with the Allies, although it might have been tempted to in late 1944 once the outcome was clear and there was a table to be had at a peace conference.

It has been suggested that a modern paradigm for the Spanish Civil war, i.e. a complex internal conflict which has taken on emblematic elements for the world at large in wider ideological struggles but which basically is obeying the laws of its own internal logic is the Syrian Civil War. That could be a topic to debate.
 
It has been suggested that a modern paradigm for the Spanish Civil war, i.e. a complex internal conflict which has taken on emblematic elements for the world at large in wider ideological struggles but which basically is obeying the laws of its own internal logic is the Syrian Civil War. That could be a topic to debate.

Probably the Syrian Civil War is a good paralell in that regard. I would say that this is true in every internal conflict, since the great and world-appealling ideological categories take their own form in every place, adapting to the local history, struggles and so and so. Recently I met a syrian exile in a conference in Madrid where the lecturer talked at some point about the Syrian Civil War under those international ideological categories, causing a lot of outrage in this syrian guy. So, after the confference I approached him and we were talking about the issue and certainly his view of the events had nothing to do with what I read in the press from any political position. When I read or hear certain external interpretations of our civil war (that, also, for every spaniard is a very emotional issue, and we rarely talk about it amongst us because is condered still unpolite, since you could you learn that the other person's grandpa killed your grandpa) boh form left and right I can understand what this syiran guy was feeling (to an extent, since after all it's the spanish past, but the syrian present)
 
I see a important pont there. The war within Spain was just a more intense phase of a long running series of complex changes. Continuation of the Repulic, however stable a government, does not waive away all the social and economic changes. Those as you say keep Spains position in the general european conflict as ambigious as in OTL.
 

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Probably this prevents the dive bomber from becoming what it did in 1939-41. Also the Germans probably end up leveraging Spain or invading it in 1940-41 to get at the minerals in the country and get at Gibraltar given that there isn't a friendly government there and they won't want to join the Axis and aren't trustworthy to leave alone. In some ways this is good for the Germans, in many other quite bad.
 
It would really depend on the level of communist influence on the Spanish Government. If the civil war had never happened that would be negligible as the pre war communist party was insignificant in Spain. If the civil war happened and soviet russia was the main source of help for the republic (as in OTL) and even enabled it to survive then you would have a soviet satellite in the rear of France. This would work to Hitler's advantage in 1940 but very much to his disadvantage in 1941. It could even lead to a postponing of barbarossa and concentrating on England. I agree that that is speculative but hey its ah.com
 
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