No Jagiellonian inheritance; effects in the Empire and beyond

[Fehérvári]

I'm currently trying to explore a scenario inwhich Louis II of Hungary doesn't die at the Battle of Mohács. Putting aside the exact developments concerning Hungary itself, what I wish to discuss here is the potential butterflies West of the Leitha.

This is sort of a sequel/reboot of my previous thread:

No Jagiellonian inheritance; alternate division of Habsburg realms

I'm currently trying to explore a scenario inwhich Louis II of Hungary doesn't die at the Battle of Mohács. Putting aside the exact developments concerning Hungary itself, what I wish to discuss here is the potential butterflies West of the Leitha. This is what I settled on so far: Margaret of...

www.alternatehistory.com

Since most of the OP was rejected, I decided to create a new thread with a new title.

Let's approach the subject step-by-step:

Religious tension was especially high in the Empire following the conclusion of the Diet of Augsburg(1530). Protestant princes left the diet early, refused to adhere to its resolutions and established a military alliance in the form of the Schmalkadic League. IOTL war was averted for the time being as the Imperials were forced to make concessions in the Peace of Nuremberg(1532) due to the threat posed by a new Ottoman attack.

Another source of Imperial worry was the League of Saalfeld which was created in opposition to Ferdinand's election as King of the Romans. The members of the alliance were Electoral Saxony, Bavaria and Hesse. The League managed to secure allies outside of the empire in the form of Denmark(1531) and France(1532). IOTL the dispute was resolved by 1534, but things could turn out differently ITTL.

How could things play out in a scenario inwhich the Diet of Augsburg concludes similarly and Ferdinand also still gets elected akin to OTL, but there's no imminent direct threat posed by an Ottoman invasion? Could the conflict remain contained within the Empire (an earlier Schmalkadic War) or would it spread to involve Bavaria too, or maybe even evolve into a new chapter of the "Italian Wars"? How likely is an Imperial victory in either case and what could be the repercussions?

What do you think?

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

I'm currently trying to explore a scenario inwhich Louis II of Hungary doesn't die at the Battle of Mohács. Putting aside the exact developments concerning Hungary itself, what I wish to discuss here is the potential butterflies West of the Leitha.

This is sort of a sequel/reboot of my previous thread:

No Jagiellonian inheritance; alternate division of Habsburg realms

I'm currently trying to explore a scenario inwhich Louis II of Hungary doesn't die at the Battle of Mohács. Putting aside the exact developments concerning Hungary itself, what I wish to discuss here is the potential butterflies West of the Leitha. This is what I settled on so far: Margaret of...

www.alternatehistory.com

Since most of the OP was rejected, I decided to create a new thread with a new title.

Let's approach the subject step-by-step:

Religious tension was especially high in the Empire following the conclusion of the Diet of Augsburg(1530). Protestant princes left the diet early, refused to adhere to its resolutions and established a military alliance in the form of the Schmalkadic League. IOTL war was averted for the time being as the Imperials were forced to make concessions in the Peace of Nuremberg(1532) due to the threat posed by a new Ottoman attack.

Another source of Imperial worry was the League of Saalfeld which was created in opposition to Ferdinand's election as King of the Romans. The members of the alliance were the Electoral Saxony, Bavaria and Hesse. The League managed to secure allies outside of the empire in the form of Denmark(1531) and France(1532). IOTL the dispute was resolved by 1534, but things could turn out differently ITTL.

How could things play out in a scenario inwhich the Diet of Agusburg concludes similarly and Ferdinand also still gets elected akin to OTL, but there's no imminent direct threat posed by an Ottoman invasion? Could the conflict remain contained within the Empire (an earlier Schmalkadic War) or would it spread to involve Bavaria too, or maybe even evolve into a new chapter of the "Italian Wars"? How likely is an Imperial victory in either case and what could be the repercussions?

What do you think?

I think this is in wrong forum, it should be in before 1900, and Ferdinand would be a non-entitity politically if he didn't get Bohemia and Hungary. Maybe he could be elected, but IMHO Charles's plan to prompt Philip as Ferdinand's succesor in HRE would succeed and there is nothing Ferdinand could do about it.

 

[isabella]

I think this is in wrong forum, it should be in before 1900, and Ferdinand would be a non-entitity politically if he didn't get Bohemia and Hungary. Maybe he could be elected, but IMHO Charles's plan to prompt Philip as Ferdinand's succesor in HRE would succeed and there is nothing Ferdinand could do about it.

Ferdinand would still have more lands than his great grandfather Frederick III and if he can keep Wurttemberg (likely in this scenario) his holdings would be more extended than Maximilian I’s and neither of them was a political non-entity

 

[Fehérvári]

I think this is in wrong forum, it should be in before 1900, and Ferdinand would be a non-entitity politically if he didn't get Bohemia and Hungary. Maybe he could be elected, but IMHO Charles's plan to prompt Philip as Ferdinand's succesor in HRE would succeed and there is nothing Ferdinand could do about it.

Oh damn. I will ask for it to be moved.

 

[Fehérvári]

Ferdinand would be a non-entitity politically if he didn't get Bohemia and Hungary. Maybe he could be elected, but IMHO Charles's plan to prompt Philip as Ferdinand's succesor in HRE would succeed and there is nothing Ferdinand could do about it.

Philip becoming the successor of Ferdinand is not impossible, but that still means that Ferdinand is elected first. That means the League of Saalfeld is still a factor that needs to be considered to determine the likely course of events in the 1530s, so Ferdinand's election is not inconsequential.

Alright, let's say there's an early Schmalkadic War in 1532 that expands to involve Bavaria, Denmark-Norway and France on the side of the League. What could be the consequences of an Imperial victory here? An early defeat of Protestantism? Strenghtened Imperial power?

 

[Nuraghe]

Philip becoming the successor of Ferdinand is not impossible, but that still means that Ferdinand is elected first. That means the League of Saalfeld is still a factor that needs to be considered to determine the likely course of events in the 1530s, so Ferdinand's election is not inconsequential.

Alright, let's say there's an early Schmalkadic War in 1532 that expands to involve Bavaria, Denmark-Norway and France on the side of the League. What could be the consequences of an Imperial victory here? An early defeat of Protestantism? Strenghtened Imperial power?

then it certainly depends on when the war breaks out and who is further involved in the conflict, but I think we will see a very close clash overall ( similar to the Italian wars of 1521 - 1530 and 1536 - 38 OTL ), we will certainly see the papacy remaining neutral or at least pro-imperial ( Clement certainly does not want to risk another sack of Rome, moreover the city is still slowly recovering ), the Habsburgs who must not also concentrate against the Ottomans ( seeing as Otl were busy on three fronts, fighting them on the sea, in the Balkans and even in Italy ) they may have a good chance of winning against the league in the Empire ( and perhaps they will be able to convince Bavaria to come over to their side, perhaps making them some territorial concessions ) certainly an imperial victory will greatly discredit the politics and ideology of the Lutheran princes , becoming a very useful weapon of imperial propaganda, which can potentially strengthen imperial power if it is played carefully ( especially by convincing the minor Catholic princes and imperial cities that this victory does not represent a threat to their security, which can be truly fundamental , given that Otl most of them joined the league because they feared the renewed imperial power ) furthermore a defeat of the league, means that for some period the Protestant world will be engaged in internal struggles to understand how it is possible that they lost is of who is to blame ( which Charles and Ferdi must immediately exploit to their advantage ), certainly nothing prevents a new conflict from happening again in the future, but at least the Habsburgs should find themselves in a better position than in Otl, in particular if they manage to collaborate with the Catholic branches of the Welf and the Hohenzollern, although the imperial faction would seem less threatening than in Otl, where they also ruled Bohemia and obviously Hungary, it will be interesting instead what England will do in this scenario, Otl Henry although busy with his internal problems and above all short of funds, still wanted to have his say on the continent, he was courted in an absurd manner by both sides ( with the imperials, who offered him gains in France and also in the empire, if he supported them )

 

[Janprimus]

I think this is in wrong forum, it should be in before 1900, and Ferdinand would be a non-entitity politically if he didn't get Bohemia and Hungary. Maybe he could be elected, but IMHO Charles's plan to prompt Philip as Ferdinand's succesor in HRE would succeed and there is nothing Ferdinand could do about it.

Who's to say. With Philip perhaps installed in the duchy of Milan, perhaps Charles gives "Burgundy" as a dowry, when his eldest daughter Mary marries the eldest son of Ferdinand, most likely called Maximilian.

 

[isabella]

Who's to say. With Philip perhaps installed in the duchy of Milan, perhaps Charles gives "Burgundy" as a dowry, when his eldest daughter Mary marries the eldest son of Ferdinand, most likely called Maximilian.

The childless death of Francesco II Sforza (and so the possibility for Charles to invest his son with the Duchy of Milan) is not guaranteed.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

Ferdinand would still have more lands than his great grandfather Frederick III and if he can keep Wurttemberg (likely in this scenario) his holdings would be more extended than Maximilian I’s and neither of them was a political non-entity

Frederick III was political non-entity in all ways besides of prestige of HRE (that's why anyone took him seriously and that's why Charles the Bold agreed to marry his daughter to Maximilian) most of whose reign was spent on losing to his brother and Hungarians who took his capital and Frederick could do nothing about it. Maximilian was relevant because he had some degree of control over Burgundian inheritance. And well, Austrian lands + Wurtemberg are barely in top tier of German principalities (like Bavaria or Saxony) and I can't imagine how Ferdinand ITTL would be anything other than just a pawn for his brother, he would not be able to oppose Charles in any influential matter.

Alright, let's say there's an early Schmalkadic War in 1532 that expands to involve Bavaria, Denmark-Norway and France on the side of the League. What could be the consequences of an Imperial victory here? An early defeat of Protestantism? Strenghtened Imperial power?

Would they pull up a victory here? Habsburgs are here in worse position than IOTL. And if Bavaria, Denmark-Norway and France are all on the side of League there is good chance Habsburgs would lose that war or at least stalemate it.

Who's to say. With Philip perhaps installed in the duchy of Milan, perhaps Charles gives "Burgundy" as a dowry, when his eldest daughter Mary marries the eldest son of Ferdinand, most likely called Maximilian.

That's assuming Charles would do that. Ferdinand and his line ITTL are completely dependent on goodwill of Charles, and without it, they are non-entities.

 

[Nuraghe]

then it certainly depends on when the war breaks out and who is further involved in the conflict, but I think we will see a very close clash overall ( similar to the Italian wars of 1521 - 1530 and 1536 - 38 OTL ), we will certainly see the papacy remaining neutral or at least pro-imperial ( Clement certainly does not want to risk another sack of Rome, moreover the city is still slowly recovering ), the Habsburgs who must not also concentrate against the Ottomans ( seeing as Otl were busy on three fronts, fighting them on the sea, in the Balkans and even in Italy ) they may have a good chance of winning against the league in the Empire ( and perhaps they will be able to convince Bavaria to come over to their side, perhaps making them some territorial concessions ) certainly an imperial victory will greatly discredit the politics and ideology of the Lutheran princes , becoming a very useful weapon of imperial propaganda, which can potentially strengthen imperial power if it is played carefully ( especially by convincing the minor Catholic princes and imperial cities that this victory does not represent a threat to their security, which can be truly fundamental , given that Otl most of them joined the league because they feared the renewed imperial power ) furthermore a defeat of the league, means that for some period the Protestant world will be engaged in internal struggles to understand how it is possible that they lost is of who is to blame ( which Charles and Ferdi must immediately exploit to their advantage ), certainly nothing prevents a new conflict from happening again in the future, but at least the Habsburgs should find themselves in a better position than in Otl, in particular if they manage to collaborate with the Catholic branches of the Welf and the Hohenzollern, although the imperial faction would seem less threatening than in Otl, where they also ruled Bohemia and obviously Hungary, it will be interesting instead what England will do in this scenario, Otl Henry although busy with his internal problems and above all short of funds, still wanted to have his say on the continent, he was courted in an absurd manner by both sides ( with the imperials, who offered him gains in France and also in the empire, if he supported them )

Furthermore, it must also be considered that in response to the formation of the Schmalkaldic League, the Catholic League was founded in Nuremberg with the aim of countering the growing spread of Protestantism in the Empire. It was mainly composed of ecclesiastical states and minor princes but however, it was never militarily active and only existed from 1538 to 1539 ( but rather served as the basis for the subsequent league of the same name that arose in 1608 ), but given that the military pressures within the Reich are stronger, then it is likely that it actually sees a military function, perhaps wisely used by Ferdinand or a Habsburg ally

 

[Fehérvári]

then it certainly depends on when the war breaks out and who is further involved in the conflict

First half of 1532 could be a logical start date, but it could start even earlier. The original deadline for the Protestants to adopt the diet's measures was 1531 April 15th, but they appealed for arbitration at the Imperial Chamber Court which delayed the confrontation. Without having to watch their back against a potential Ottoman attack (Suleiman explicitly refused peace in 1530 so an attack was expected in any moment), Charles might disregard the appeals, and once the deadline is crossed, he could place the non-complying members of the Schmalkadic League under Imperial ban for breaching the peace of the Empire. Still, I believe there still would be some delays here and there, so the first half of 1532 might still be the most likely time for hostilites to actually begin.

As for Bavaria, maybe it wouldn't oppose the Habsburgs after all. Louis X claimed the throne of Bohemia IOTL, and that was the source of the conflict. With Louis Jagiellon still alive and kicking, there's no Wittelsbach claim on Bohemia and thus all is fine and dandy. Bavaria might even step up as an ally of the Emperor against Protestantism. This of course means there's no League of Saalfeld and Ferdinand's election would only be protested by the Schmalkadic League. Still, if the alliance with Denmark and France can still be secured regardless, then we're still looking at the prospect of a huge war.

The Schmalkadic League was smaller and weaker in the early '30s than it was in the mid '40s. Although the Danish and French alliances would make up for that easily, if we compare this coalition's strength to that of the Franco-Ottoman alliance in the Italian War of 1536-'38, it falls short. Meanwhile, the Imperial-Spanish side might be even stronger than IOTL. Bavaria might participate as an ally, the still functioning Swabian League too (alongside with Habsburg Württemberg), while Danish involvement on the other side might even result in notable Papal support as well. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Louis II of Hungary sending some troops either (maybe in exchange for the promise of a future anti-Ottoman campaign or subsidies).

The outcome could perhaps be the following: The Schmalkadic League loses and is forcefully disbanded, its former members are forced to adopt the resolutions of the Diet of Augsburg(1530). They begrudginly comply, and thus the Imperial ban is lifted on them. All this however doesn't stop many from covertly continue supporting the Protestant movement and the actual implementation of Imperial policies are done in a halfhearted manner if not straight up sabotaged. German protestantism is suppressed for the time being, but a new conflict is already slowly brewing underground.

Meanwhile, Frederick I of Denmark's death in 1533 plunges the country into civil war which allows Christian II to get restored in Denmark and Norway with Imperial and Papal help. Catholicism is reinvigorated in the region.

Last but not least, France could probably enjoy some success during this war. French occupation of the Three Bishoprics, Savoy or Milan are all possible outcomes. If the war in Germany concludes relatively early, then fighting could shift to Italy once Francesco II Sforza dies in 1535 and leaves Milan without ruler. From then on, the conflict could conclude similarly to OTL (Italian War of 1536-'38). What do you think?

it will be interesting instead what England will do in this scenario, Otl Henry although busy with his internal problems and above all short of funds, still wanted to have his say on the continent, he was courted in an absurd manner by both sides ( with the imperials, who offered him gains in France and also in the empire, if he supported them )

As long as Catherine of Aragon and Anne Boleyn both live, I don't see an Anglo-Imperial alliance being likely to materialise (except if Henry takes back Catherine, of course).

The childless death of Francesco II Sforza (and so the possibility for Charles to invest his son with the Duchy of Milan) is not guaranteed.

It's not, but I would like to keep it that way.

And well, Austrian lands + Wurtemberg are barely in top tier of German principalities (like Bavaria or Saxony) and I can't imagine how Ferdinand ITTL would be anything other than just a pawn for his brother, he would not be able to oppose Charles in any influential matter.

Even so, Charles need to die before a new King of the Romans could be elected. At that point, the Emperor would be none other than Ferdinand, who as such could have considerable influence over the Imperial election. The Spanish defaults of 1557 and 1560 also call into question Philip's ability to bribe the electors for his election.

Also, Austria+Württemberg is certainly not much, but I think it still a bit above the likes of Bavaria and Saxony. If we're looking at it from the perspective of Imperial Circles, the Austrian Habsburgs would dominate two, Bavaria one and Saxony none.

Furthermore, it must also be considered that in response to the formation of the Schmalkaldic League, the Catholic League was founded in Nuremberg with the aim of countering the growing spread of Protestantism in the Empire. It was mainly composed of ecclesiastical states and minor princes but however, it was never militarily active and only existed from 1538 to 1539 ( but rather served as the basis for the subsequent league of the same name that arose in 1608 ), but given that the military pressures within the Reich are stronger, then it is likely that it actually sees a military function, perhaps wisely used by Ferdinand or a Habsburg ally

Didn't know that. Sounds interesting (and certainly useful for the Habsburgs).

 

[Nuraghe]

First half of 1532 could be a logical start date, but it could start even earlier. The original deadline for the Protestants to adopt the diet's measures was 1531 April 15th, but they appealed for arbitration at the Imperial Chamber Court which delayed the confrontation. Without having to watch their back against a potential Ottoman attack (Suleiman explicitly refused peace in 1530 so an attack was expected in any moment), Charles might disregard the appeals, and once the deadline is crossed, he could place the non-complying members of the Schmalkadic League under Imperial ban for breaching the peace of the Empire. Still, I believe there still would be some delays here and there, so the first half of 1532 might still be the most likely time for hostilites to actually begin.

As for Bavaria, maybe it wouldn't oppose the Habsburgs after all. Louis X claimed the throne of Bohemia IOTL, and that was the source of the conflict. With Louis Jagiellon still alive and kicking, there's no Wittelsbach claim on Bohemia and thus all is fine and dandy. Bavaria might even step up as an ally of the Emperor against Protestantism. This of course means there's no League of Saalfeld and Ferdinand's election would only be protested by the Schmalkadic League. Still, if the alliance with Denmark and France can still be secured regardless, then we're still looking at the prospect of a huge war.

The Schmalkadic League was smaller and weaker in the early '30s than it was in the mid '40s. Although the Danish and French alliances would make up for that easily, if we compare this coalition's strength to that of the Franco-Ottoman alliance in the Italian War of 1536-'38, it falls short. Meanwhile, the Imperial-Spanish side might be even stronger than IOTL. Bavaria might participate as an ally, the still functioning Swabian League too (alongside with Habsburg Württemberg), while Danish involvement on the other side might even result in notable Papal support as well. I wouldn't rule out the possibility of Louis II of Hungary sending some troops either (maybe in exchange for the promise of a future anti-Ottoman campaign or subsidies).

The outcome could perhaps be the following: The Schmalkadic League loses and is forcefully disbanded, its former members are forced to adopt the resolutions of the Diet of Augsburg(1530). They begrudginly comply, and thus the Imperial ban is lifted on them. All this however doesn't stop many from covertly continue supporting the Protestant movement and the actual implementation of Imperial policies are done in a halfhearted manner if not straight up sabotaged. German protestantism is suppressed for the time being, but a new conflict is already slowly brewing underground.

Meanwhile, Frederick I of Denmark's death in 1533 plunges the country into civil war which allows Christian II to get restored in Denmark and Norway with Imperial and Papal help. Catholicism is reinvigorated in the region.

Last but not least, France could probably enjoy some success during this war. French occupation of the Three Bishoprics, Savoy or Milan are all possible outcomes. If the war in Germany concludes relatively early, then fighting could shift to Italy once Francesco II Sforza dies in 1535 and leaves Milan without ruler. From then on, the conflict could conclude similarly to OTL (Italian War of 1536-'38). What do you think?

As long as Catherine of Aragon and Anne Boleyn both live, I don't see an Anglo-Imperial alliance being likely to materialise (except if Henry takes back Catherine, of course).

It's not, but I would like to keep it that way.

Even so, Charles need to die before a new King of the Romans could be elected. At that point, the Emperor would be none other than Ferdinand, who as such could have considerable influence over the Imperial election. The Spanish defaults of 1557 and 1560 also call into question Philip's ability to bribe the electors for his election.

Also, Austria+Württemberg is certainly not much, but I think it still a bit above the likes of Bavaria and Saxony. If we're looking at it from the perspective of Imperial Circles, the Austrian Habsburgs would dominate two, Bavaria one and Saxony none.

Didn't know that. Sounds interesting (and certainly useful for the Habsburgs).

I think you have framed the possible development of the conflict quite well, although I think that in Italy, things would not be so bad, I would say that France would still occupy Savoy, but otherwise without the enormous distraction of the Ottomans Otl ( in the war 1536 - 38, the Habsburgs had sent enormous resources against the Turks both in North Africa and in Southern Italy, Suleiman had imitated Mehmet II, and had landed an army in Puglia ( I am obviously excluding the Balkan front ) so I would say that all in all Milan would be freed ( with difficulty ) from French control, for the rest I agree with what you said

 

[Janprimus]

Frederick III was political non-entity in all ways besides of prestige of HRE (that's why anyone took him seriously and that's why Charles the Bold agreed to marry his daughter to Maximilian) most of whose reign was spent on losing to his brother and Hungarians who took his capital and Frederick could do nothing about it. Maximilian was relevant because he had some degree of control over Burgundian inheritance. And well, Austrian lands + Wurtemberg are barely in top tier of German principalities (like Bavaria or Saxony) and I can't imagine how Ferdinand ITTL would be anything other than just a pawn for his brother, he would not be able to oppose Charles in any influential matter.



Would they pull up a victory here? Habsburgs are here in worse position than IOTL. And if Bavaria, Denmark-Norway and France are all on the side of League there is good chance Habsburgs would lose that war or at least stalemate it.



That's assuming Charles would do that. Ferdinand and his line ITTL are completely dependent on goodwill of Charles, and without it, they are non-entities.

Okay I'll bite, they are not non entities within the Empire, sure more on the same tier as say Bavaria. OTOH Charles still needs Ferdinand to represent him in the Empire, which is still likely to be formalized in the election of Ferdinand as King of the Romans. Moreover ITTL the Habsburgs will fight harder to keep the duchy of Württemberg.

As noted by among others @isabella the duchy of Milan is not a certainty, though @Fehérvári stated a bit otherwise. Who's to say, how things develop. Philip wasn't particularly thrilled about the Empire nor the duchy of Burgundy. Sure Ferdinand was also interested in the duchy of Milan, but his branch keeping the Empire with the blessing of Philip, plus his son gaining the Burgundian Lands after marrying the (eldest) sister of Philip II, in exchange (as compensation) the duchy of Milan, seems reasonable. Such a deal would require Charles dying before he can invest the duchy of Milan, that would technically mean the duchy of Milan as an Imperial Fief is something Ferdinand can decide about, but at the same time it is controlled by Spanish troops, so de facto Philip would have a greater say.

OTOH no Jagiellonian Inheritance, I'm not sure that is good for Hungary, if they end up being overrun by the Ottomans, IOTL the Austrian Habsburg reconquest greatly benefited from additional troops from Imperial support.

 

[raharris1973]

What was the real size of Habsburg Wurttemburg at this time? I always thought that the Wurttemburg of the classic size that got merged into the 2nd Reich of 1871 was a pretty new creation of the CoV at that particular size and shape, assembled from various much smaller parts.

 

[raharris1973]

What is holding the Ottomans back here?

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

Even so, Charles need to die before a new King of the Romans could be elected. At that point, the Emperor would be none other than Ferdinand, who as such could have considerable influence over the Imperial election. The Spanish defaults of 1557 and 1560 also call into question Philip's ability to bribe the electors for his election.

He doesn't need to die, vivente imperatore election was accepted in HRE, and thus Philip could be elected during both his uncle's and his father's lifetime. The only scenario in which I see Ferdinand's eldest son being elected is when Ferdinand appeals to German prince's xenophobia and de facto betrays his brother, if the France is doing well, maybe it would take the chance to divide and weaken the Habsburgs and would prompt election of TTL's Maximilian II as HRE.

Also, Austria+Württemberg is certainly not much, but I think it still a bit above the likes of Bavaria and Saxony. If we're looking at it from the perspective of Imperial Circles, the Austrian Habsburgs would dominate two, Bavaria one and Saxony none.

Both Bavaria and Saxony are presumably richer than Austria + Wurrtemberg, but even than, Austrian Habsburg cannot hope to achieve their OTL position with them being treated like Great Power in their own right.

Okay I'll bite, they are not non entities within the Empire, sure more on the same tier as say Bavaria. OTOH Charles still needs Ferdinand to represent him the Empire, which is still likely to be formalized in the election of Ferdinand as King of the Romans. Moreover ITTL the Habsburgs will fight harder to keep the duchy of Württemberg.

But they are non-entities compared to likes of Spain and France and that's what matters. And yes, Ferdinand will probably still become King of Romans, tho unless he finds another backer (like France) his role would be: "do what Charles tells you to do".

As noted by among others @isabella the duchy of Milan is not a certainty, though @Fehérvári stated a bit otherwise. Who's to say, how things develop. Philip wasn't particularly thrilled about the Empire nor the duchy of Burgundy. Sure Ferdinand was also interested in the duchy of Milan, but his branch keeping the Empire with the blessing of Philip, plus his son gaining the Burgundian Lands after marrying the (eldest) sister of Philip II, in exchange (as compensation) the duchy of Milan, seems reasonable. Such a deal would require Charles dying before he can invest the duchy of Milan, that would technically mean the duchy of Milan as an Imperial Fief is something Ferdinand can decide about, but at the same time it is controlled by Spanish troops, so de facto Philip would have a greater say.

Well, unless we change also England, Philip would still need Low Countries to be able to marry Mary Tudor. And I wouldn't say giving your family lands to your sister is particularly smart policy.

OTOH no Jagiellonian Inheritance, I'm not sure that is good for Hungary, if they end up being overrun by the Ottomans, IOTL the Austrian Habsburg reconquest greatly benefited from additional troops from Imperial support.

OP specifically wanted not to focus on Hungary, I only brought it up to show how weak Frederick III's position was, because he took L after L from it.

 

[Nuraghe]

What was the real size of Habsburg Wurttemburg at this time? I always thought that the Wurttemburg of the classic size that got merged into the 2nd Reich of 1871 was a pretty new creation of the CoV at that particular size and shape, assembled from various much smaller parts.

actually Kingdom of Wurttemberg, which was born from the Napoleonic campaigns, had more or less tripled in size, given that it took over many Habsburg ( i.e. most of further Austria ) and minor ecclesiastical territories present in the area, approximately in the 17th century it had 350,000 inhabitants ( at least before the devastation of 30YW ) so it would still be a pretty good profit for the Habsburgs


because it is good to remember that Ulrich had been placed under imperial ban long before being ousted in 1519 by the Swabian League, and there were plans to push Max to depose him by the Wittelsbachs, already since 1514, his attack on an imperial city taking advantage of the vacant seat, was just the last drop

 

[Fehérvári]

I think you have framed the possible development of the conflict quite well, although I think that in Italy, things would not be so bad, I would say that France would still occupy Savoy, but otherwise without the enormous distraction of the Ottomans Otl ( in the war 1536 - 38, the Habsburgs had sent enormous resources against the Turks both in North Africa and in Southern Italy, Suleiman had imitated Mehmet II, and had landed an army in Puglia ( I am obviously excluding the Balkan front ) so I would say that all in all Milan would be freed ( with difficulty ) from French control, for the rest I agree with what you said

Then the outcome in Italy could be the same as IOTL, just with a bit earlier conclusion?

OTOH no Jagiellonian Inheritance, I'm not sure that is good for Hungary, if they end up being overrun by the Ottomans, IOTL the Austrian Habsburg reconquest greatly benefited from additional troops from Imperial support.

What is holding the Ottomans back here?

Louis II loses at Mohács, but he's able to flee from the battlefield. Just like IOTL, Suleiman's army wastes time at Mohács to await the arrival of the "real Hungarian army", allowing some fleeing units to reconstitute and rally around the King. Soon Suleiman marches on Buda and besieges it. The defenders of Buda, reinforced by survivors of Mohács and some additional forces, withstand 5 weeks of siege (Sept. 12. – Oct. 17.) until eventually the coming end of the campaign season makes Suleiman lift the siege and leave the country. (So it's pretty much like OTL's siege of Vienna in 1529.)

Once the Ottoman main army is no longer present, the country's forces go on a counteroffensive and clear the country of whatever few raiders and garrison were left behind here or there. There's even a failed attempt to recover Belgrade. Meanwhile, Louis sends a delegation to Suleiman to request peace/armistice. Eventually a truce is signed in early 1527, which confirms the status quo, forces Louis II to pay an annual tribute of 30 000 florins. The duration of the truce is set to be 3 years, but it gets renewed in 1530 and 1533. The truce expires in 1536.

He doesn't need to die, vivente imperatore election was accepted in HRE, and thus Philip could be elected during both his uncle's and his father's lifetime.

Electing a new King of the Romans, when the previously elected one did not even succeed the actual Emperor yet is completely unprecedented. I really doubt it would ever happen.

Both Bavaria and Saxony are presumably richer than Austria + Wurrtemberg, but even than, Austrian Habsburg cannot hope to achieve their OTL position with them being treated like Great Power in their own right.

On the other hand, a Habsburg branch that is solely based within the HRE is strongly incentivised to improve the functionality of the Empire's institutions, even at the cost of making concessions to certain power blocs. And the HRE as a collective is capable of action befitting for a Great Power.

The only scenario in which I see Ferdinand's eldest son being elected is when Ferdinand appeals to German prince's xenophobia and de facto betrays his brother, if the France is doing well, maybe it would take the chance to divide and weaken the Habsburgs and would prompt election of TTL's Maximilian II as HRE.

Ferdinand IOTL agreed to Philip becoming his successor as long as Philip's successor was Maximilian, but this notion failed due to the opposition of the Electors. Ferdinand did not have to appeal to the princes' xenophobia, they were more than capable of tapping into that on their own. The fact that Philip did not know German didn't help his case either. (Also let's not forget that one of the Electors would still be Louis II who would probably prefer the Empire going to his nephew. Not to mention Maximilian would be based within Germany, close enough to quickly provide aid if necessary, while Philip would probably rarely be present in the Empire.)

But they are non-entities compared to likes of Spain and France and that's what matters. And yes, Ferdinand will probably still become King of Romans, tho unless he finds another backer (like France) his role would be: "do what Charles tells you to do".

Sure, Ferdinand would have a weaker foundation without Bohemia and rump Hungary, but he wouldn't be in constant need of his brother's help against the Ottomans either. Based on this, I don't believe his freedom of action would be that much worse vis-a-vis Charles and his descendants compared to OTL.

Well, unless we change also England, Philip would still need Low Countries to be able to marry Mary Tudor. And I wouldn't say giving your family lands to your sister is particularly smart policy.

Yes, the previous thread already pointed out that the Netherlands going to the Austrian branch is an extremely unlikely development.

OP specifically wanted not to focus on Hungary

Yes, thank you for bringing that to attention.

 

[Nuraghe]

Then the outcome in Italy could be the same as IOTL, just with a bit earlier conclusion?


Louis II loses at Mohács, but he's able to flee from the battlefield. Just like IOTL, Suleiman's army wastes time at Mohács to await the arrival of the "real Hungarian army", allowing some fleeing units to reconstitute and rally around the king. Soon Suleiman marches on Buda a besieges it. The defenders of Buda, reinforced by survivors of Mohács and some additional forces, withstand 5 weeks of siege (Sept. 12. – Oct. 17.) until eventually the coming end of the campaigning season makes Suleiman lift the siege and leave the country. (So it's pretty much like OTL's siege of Vienna in 1529.)

Once the Ottoman main army is no longer present, the country's forces go on a counteroffensive and clear the country of whatever few raiders and garrison were left behind here or there. There's even a failed attempt to recover Belgrade. Meanwhile, Louis sends a delegation to Suleiman to request peace/armistice. Eventually a truce is signed in early 1527, which confirms the status quo, forces Louis II to pay an annual tribute of 30 000 florins. The duration of the truce is set to be 3 years, but it gets renewed in 1530 and 1533. The truce expires in 1536.

Electing a new King of the Romans, when the previously elected one did not even succeed the actual Emperor yet is completely unprecedented. I really doubt it would ever happen.

On the other hand, a Habsburg branch that is solely based within the HRE is strongly incentivised to improve the functionality of the Empire's institutions, even at the cost of making concessions to certain power blocs. And the HRE as a collective is capable of action befitting for a Great Power.

Ferdinand IOTL agreed to Philip becoming his successor as long as Philip's successor was Maximilian, but this notion failed due to the opposition of the Electors. Ferdinand did not have to appeal to the princes' xenophobia, they were more than capable of tapping into that on their own. The fact that Philip did not know German didn't help his case either. (Also let's not forget that one of the Electors would still be Louis II who would probably prefer the Empire going to his nephew. Not to mention Maximilian would be based within Germany, close enough to quickly provide aid if necessary, while Philip would probably rarely be present in the Empire.

Sure, Ferdinand would have a weaker foundation without Bohemia and rump Hungary, but he wouldn't be in constant need of his brother's help against the Ottomans either. Based on this, I don't believe his freedom of action would be that much worse vis-a-vis Charles and his descendants compared to OTL.

Yes, the previous thread already pointed out that the Netherlands going to the Austrian branch is an extremely unlikely development.

Yes, thank you for bringing that to attention.

as far as Italy is concerned, I wouldn't say that we would have an earlier solution to the conflict compared to OTL, in fact I believe that we will see a very similar progression in reality ( also because there are many variables at play, from Francesco II Sforza who may or may not have some lineage, a different succession in Monferrato, possible pontificates other than Otl, the question of the Medici in Florence, the situation in Emilia Romagna and more ), certainly a quicker conclusion can be achieved (as an Italian I would very much hope for this) but everything depends on how the other fronts of the conflict develop ( a clear example, Otl Carlo lost at least 1/3 of his original troops in Passau, around 10 Thousands of soldiers, they were busy literally occupying the Papal States ( quite common occurrence during his reign, If I'm not mistaken it happens at least 3 times ) , if this situation had not happened, things in Germany would have been different, I could give many other examples of imperial troops that ended up being used for other purposes, other than the original ones ( such as the Spaniards who went to reinforce the defensive lines ( both Venetian and Habsburg ) on site against the Turks, mostly in Dalmatia, Hungary and the Greek islands, or even the imperial garrisons in post-1548 Wurttemberg and in the Swiss Catholic cantons and in ecclesiastical electorates, leaving aside those present in the Italian states their "allies" ) , or even of poor coordination skills with the allies ( particularly in the wars of 1521 - 30 and that of 1542 - 1546, mainly with the English ) , where in the end all this gradually influenced Charles to be almost always on the defensive )


paradoxically, it was more onerous for the Habsburgs to maintain this situation ( i.e. to provide continuos assistance to the allies ) than to have to defend their disparate possessions out of their own pockets ( in particular Milan, it drained more resources for the Habsburgs under the Sforzesco government than after it had become their possession )

 

[Janprimus]

He doesn't need to die, vivente imperatore election was accepted in HRE, and thus Philip could be elected during both his uncle's and his father's lifetime. The only scenario in which I see Ferdinand's eldest son being elected is when Ferdinand appeals to German prince's xenophobia and de facto betrays his brother, if the France is doing well, maybe it would take the chance to divide and weaken the Habsburgs and would prompt election of TTL's Maximilian II as HRE.

Such an election was only accepted after an elected king of the Romans became Holy Roman Emperor. After Maximilian I of Austria was accepted as Emperor-Elect by the Papacy, this from this moment on was possible after succession. In other words neither Maximilian II nor Philip II can be elected, when both Charles V and Ferdinand I of Austria are both alive.

Both Bavaria and Saxony are presumably richer than Austria + Wurrtemberg, but even than, Austrian Habsburg cannot hope to achieve their OTL position with them being treated like Great Power in their own right.

I'd argue that the Austrian Habsburgs would be on the same tier as Bavaria and Saxony, moreover the princely county of Tyrol has valuable mines. Also IOTL the Austrian Habsburgs were only really accepted in the highest tier of European Powers after they completed the reconquest of Hungary (but before their gains during the War of the Spanish Succession).

But they are non-entities compared to likes of Spain and France and that's what matters. And yes, Ferdinand will probably still become King of Romans, tho unless he finds another backer (like France) his role would be: "do what Charles tells you to do".

Before both Charles and Ferdinand became concerned about the succession of their heirs, the brothers worked in tandem for the good of the house of Habsburg.

Well, unless we change also England, Philip would still need Low Countries to be able to marry Mary Tudor. And I wouldn't say giving your family lands to your sister is particularly smart policy.

IOTL Charles V made Philip II king of Naples in order, that he wouldn't be outranked by his wife. Also Princesses were given dowries all the time and in this case, it would stay in the family. The idea floated around for a while, and after the death of Mary Tudor, this became more urgent again. And like I wrote, if the duchy of Milan comes into play, it could de facto be a trade.

OP specifically wanted not to focus on Hungary, I only brought it up to show how weak Frederick III's position was, because he took L after L from it.

Hence why Maximilian of Austria not only loved Mary of Burgundy, but he also admired Valois-Burgundy more than he did Frederick III. OTOH Frederick III often mocked as turtle, turned out to be a sly fox. Besides I only brought up Hungary in combination with the Empire.