No Bulgarian front of 1877 Russo-Turkish War

[Beefhammer]

Let's say, for whatever reason (Acknowledging the rebellion in Bulgaria is suppressed for the time being? Concern for the Armenians being in the middle of enemy territory the next time a Christian massacre happens? Not having any gains to be made by going into the Balkans or any confidence that a liberated Bulgaria will be a reliable ally going forward? Any combination of these or other reasons?), Russia declines to cross over the Danube delta and focuses all of its efforts on land on the Armenian Highlands. The already existing countries that IOTL made gains at the Ottoman Empire's expense (Serbia, Romania, Montenegro) are likely to get thrown bones at the peace talks; at a minimum, full independence for all.
What comes of this? How far are the Russians likely to penetrate and secure at the peace treaty? I assume roughly the borders of Wilsonian Armenia are the maximum they can get. Does having the Russians so close to their Asian core territories destabilize the Ottoman Empire as much as the loss of so much of their European core territories IOTL, or do they still have the strength to maintain reforms and reconsolidate within their remaining territory (maybe even still being able to carry out their abortive plan to reassert control over Egypt?)? How do the other great powers react to this, compared to OTL? Any other possible questions you think you'd have answers for?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Let's say, for whatever reason (Acknowledging the rebellion in Bulgaria is suppressed for the time being? Concern for the Armenians being in the middle of enemy territory the next time a Christian massacre happens? Not having any gains to be made by going into the Balkans or any confidence that a liberated Bulgaria will be a reliable ally going forward? Any combination of these or other reasons?), Russia declines to cross over the Danube delta and focuses all of its efforts on land on the Armenian Highlands. The already existing countries that IOTL made gains at the Ottoman Empire's expense (Serbia, Romania, Montenegro) are likely to get thrown bones at the peace talks; at a minimum, full independence for all.
What comes of this? How far are the Russians likely to penetrate and secure at the peace treaty? I assume roughly the borders of Wilsonian Armenia are the maximum they can get. Does having the Russians so close to their Asian core territories destabilize the Ottoman Empire as much as the loss of so much of their European core territories IOTL, or do they still have the strength to maintain reforms and reconsolidate within their remaining territory (maybe even still being able to carry out their abortive plan to reassert control over Egypt?)? How do the other great powers react to this, compared to OTL? Any other possible questions you think you'd have answers for?

One of the main reasons to join the war were the Bulgarians and Russia wants to dominate the Balkans, the Caucasus isn't their priority, Pan-Slavism is much more important.

 

[Beefhammer]

Any ideas other than "Nuh uh"?

 

[Captain Jack]

There’s a fair point in that Bulgaria and the other Balkan states were Russia’s primary objective in the 1877 war. The Balkan theater was the primary theater of combat and what the fighting was all about. Additionally, the war was very costly to Russia in both lives and materiel. Bulgaria was a prize worth that level of expenditure, but on their own conquests in Armenia probably weren’t.

So, accepting your premise of a war restricted solely to the Caucasus, I think we’re looking at a significantly smaller war for both Russia and the Ottomans. I think Russia reaching roughly the boundaries of Wilsonian Armenia is plausible if the war is a decisive victory for Russia. More modest gains - maybe out to Erzurum given it was the extent of Russian forces’ advance IOTL - might be more likely. Britain will oppose significant Russian conquests in the Caucasus/Anatolia as they did IOTL but with the war limited to Caucasian theater I doubt they can garner enough support from the other Great Powers to force a modification on Russia.

The biggest impact might well be on Great Power politics. I’d suggest the Russo-Turkish war and particularly the post-Congress of Berlin tension between between Austria and Russia over influence in the Balkans was the seed which ultimately dissolved the League of the Three Emperors. Russia and Austria will still have conflicting ambitions in the Balkans, but with nothing to force those issues to head they might stay dormant. That could potentially reshape the alliance structures of the coming decades. Far from guaranteed something else won’t occur to break the relationship though.

Additionally, there presumably won’t be a Congress of Berlin in this scenario. That means Austria won’t occupy Bosnia and Britain won’t take possession of Cyprus, though both will retain their ambitions toward those areas. Bosnia in particular is significant since it alters the Austrian-Serbian relationship and changes the events which led to the Bosnian and July Crises.