What if Italy and the walllies came to a deal that let Italy stay neutral through out ww2. Trading with both sides makes Italy very rich. But how does an Italy with Mussolini in charge effect the Cold War, does he side with the west or does he stay neutral?
Neutral Italy in ww2 effects on the cold war
- Thread starter Bullmoose713
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So WW1 again? We would likely see a surge of Italian turncoat jokes in the aftermath....for eternity.
It's a bit of a loaded question, as the fine points of how it happens could potentially vary a lot.
By the German invasion of Poland, Italy has already made moves; Ethiopia has been conquered, Albania has been placed in personal union with Italy's royal family and is a protectorate, and Italian aid has ushered in a pro-Fascist, if unaligned, regime in Spain.
The obvious question is what happens next. Italy's non-support of Fall Gelb until the absolute end likely means France falls. Italy has some claims on regions of France, and I could see Italy "Occupying" something like Corsica as a "peacekeeping mission" that somehow never ends.
The real question about Italy is in the other direction--Yugoslavia. Italy has been supporting Croatian Nationalists and has claims to Dalmatia dating to the heydays of Venice. Furthermore, Italy has been trying to aim its Albanian puppet regime against Yugoslavia as well.
What this is likely to end up with is an Italy that's ironically been somewhat successful in expanding itself. The UK and USA might not like Italy very much, but I could see an Italo-Spanish Axis with Italian gains at the expense of Yugoslavia.
Mussolini's health at the end of WWII, before he and his mistress were hung upside down and executed, was not good, and he's not going to live much beyond 1945. Meanwhile, Victor Emmanuel III is probably looking for a way to get rid of the Fascists and take more power for his own--so, with Mussolini dead, he may take a more conventional royalist dictatorship; VE3 died in 1948, and Umberto II takes the crown in an enlarged and unstable Italy.
Italy at this point is not a minor power. Basically strengthening itself throughout World War II, there's no way that it can be ignored, particularly once Libyan Oil improves its economic position. However, in the "any anti-communist bastard is our bastard" ethos of the early Cold War, I think a lot of Italian sins will be forgiven.
The Spanish example also bears a lot of consideration. I'm not sure how likely it is for Italy to have its own Juan Carlos--a King that decides to reintroduce liberalism and then overrule a coup in favor of that government. OTOH, I think the pomp and celebrations in the 1940s may well turn to prolonged oppression in the 1970s. In a world filled with liberation movements that even worn out the United States (Vietnam), can Italy really hope to hold onto Croatians, Albanians, Ethiopians, Somalis and Libyans that want out?
There are a lot of ways it could go.
By the German invasion of Poland, Italy has already made moves; Ethiopia has been conquered, Albania has been placed in personal union with Italy's royal family and is a protectorate, and Italian aid has ushered in a pro-Fascist, if unaligned, regime in Spain.
The obvious question is what happens next. Italy's non-support of Fall Gelb until the absolute end likely means France falls. Italy has some claims on regions of France, and I could see Italy "Occupying" something like Corsica as a "peacekeeping mission" that somehow never ends.
The real question about Italy is in the other direction--Yugoslavia. Italy has been supporting Croatian Nationalists and has claims to Dalmatia dating to the heydays of Venice. Furthermore, Italy has been trying to aim its Albanian puppet regime against Yugoslavia as well.
What this is likely to end up with is an Italy that's ironically been somewhat successful in expanding itself. The UK and USA might not like Italy very much, but I could see an Italo-Spanish Axis with Italian gains at the expense of Yugoslavia.
Mussolini's health at the end of WWII, before he and his mistress were hung upside down and executed, was not good, and he's not going to live much beyond 1945. Meanwhile, Victor Emmanuel III is probably looking for a way to get rid of the Fascists and take more power for his own--so, with Mussolini dead, he may take a more conventional royalist dictatorship; VE3 died in 1948, and Umberto II takes the crown in an enlarged and unstable Italy.
Italy at this point is not a minor power. Basically strengthening itself throughout World War II, there's no way that it can be ignored, particularly once Libyan Oil improves its economic position. However, in the "any anti-communist bastard is our bastard" ethos of the early Cold War, I think a lot of Italian sins will be forgiven.
The Spanish example also bears a lot of consideration. I'm not sure how likely it is for Italy to have its own Juan Carlos--a King that decides to reintroduce liberalism and then overrule a coup in favor of that government. OTOH, I think the pomp and celebrations in the 1940s may well turn to prolonged oppression in the 1970s. In a world filled with liberation movements that even worn out the United States (Vietnam), can Italy really hope to hold onto Croatians, Albanians, Ethiopians, Somalis and Libyans that want out?
There are a lot of ways it could go.
RousseauX
Donor
He's a pro-western ally, the model for this is obviously Salazar's Portugal and Franco's Spain. After some initial distaste about working with Fascists NATO will get over it and admit Italy as a member.
Italian fascism increasingly becomes dysfunctional and it gets caught up in colonial wars in Libya and Ethiopia. Libya becomes something like the Italian Algeria and Ethiopia becomes its Angola. I don't see Italy winning in any of those places because the fundamental balance of power between the colonizers and the colonized is tiled too much towards the latter. Italy's economy will be weak under Fascism and at least in Ethiopia Communists would be sending lots of weapons in. Eventually Italy loses the war in both places and the regime loses credibility. By the 1970s at the latest Mussolini will die for sure and his death is likely to trigger a liberal revolution, the monarch will probably support it and Italy democratizes like Spain.
Lybia? Forget it, due to sheer italian (and arab) numbers an Algeria like scenario is not possible, expecially if Italy remain neutral and the massive colonization program continue; the arab will soon become a minority in many cities.
The current generation of local arab are too cowed by Graziani job to even think about rebel, the real troubles will start in the 60's but by that moment we will have more a North Ireland scenario than an Algeria-one.
Ethiopia? That's much more probable, but with the added problem that Eritrean and Somalian will not support their rebellion, probably the contrary.
Hell the entire decolonization process will be different with an Italy neutral, as this mean an United Kingdom that's much less spent than OTL (no East African and North African campaign, less panic for a possible invasion by the Germans so Dakar and Mars el Kebir can be butterflyed away...smoothing relations with Free France and get them some more colonies), totally different pacific campaign as there will be no need to divert asset in the Meditterean and speaking of that sea, now it's open greatly simplify the logistic situation
Basically we will have a totally different WW2 and so a radically different post-war.
Mussolini will try to get the most from the allies to keep his neutrality but what can directly obtain it's limited (implementation of the Franco-Italian agreement of 35, cultural right in Malta, some share of Suez or at least favorable price for his use, basin rights and on Djibouti, maybe even some demilitarizated zone on Algeria and Tunisia and the discard of the 1918 french law regarding the italian community in Tunisia ).
Indirectely he will try to get a free hand on Yugoslavia, this can complicate Italian-German relations as Berlin will not like someone that rock the boat of the Balkans before Barbarossa...still the situation in Yugoslavia it's so complicated that frankly anything can happen.
The moment Rome see the writing on the wall for Germany will join the allies, expecially to get back Austria as a puppet and to block any advance on the region by the URSS
After the war, Italy with Spain, Portugal (and maybe Greece if not involved in the war) can form her mini-block of fascist nations that will proudly declare their independence from both block but in reality will be clearly western aligned.
Benny will never see the 60's, too stress, too damaged health...too excess
.Following the great tradition of the italian leader...i doubt that he will have a designated heir (sure there will be a series of supposed heir but they will not last long as they will quickly become a possible competion) and this mean that the moment he die, the entire castle go down, quietly (more or less) but will go down, with at least some democratic reform to quiet the internal opposition and please the foreign (western) allies.
The Biggest Effect initially will be a much reduced threat to the "British Empire" and no 'Verdun of the Mediterranean' leeching British forces
The Home fleet will be stronger (Royal Navy less Stretched) and force Z (if still required) will be a proper Fleet + Malaya wont get the 3rd string from the Army + the 1st tier Aussie and Indian Divisions will not be fighting in North Africa.
Megatons of Merchant shipping are freed up by continued use of the Med (i.e. not having to go around Africa and adding 2 weeks)
The other effect will be far less chance of Churchill trying to force a 'soft underbelly' strategy on the Wallies and this would probably result in D-Day happening in 1943
The Home fleet will be stronger (Royal Navy less Stretched) and force Z (if still required) will be a proper Fleet + Malaya wont get the 3rd string from the Army + the 1st tier Aussie and Indian Divisions will not be fighting in North Africa.
Megatons of Merchant shipping are freed up by continued use of the Med (i.e. not having to go around Africa and adding 2 weeks)
The other effect will be far less chance of Churchill trying to force a 'soft underbelly' strategy on the Wallies and this would probably result in D-Day happening in 1943
A neutral italy could have a range of butterflies. IF - and thats a big IF - Italy kept herself out of the war and/or kept her adventures separate and small, could have been acted as an anchor/counterweight for some of the axis minors in their relations with Germany. I think, that Romania still joins the germans (because of bessarabia), but Hungary, Bulgaria might not, and IF (again, the big if) Italy had not go after both Yugoslavia nad Greece, but only one or for the best, neither, the post-war situation could go different (no SE EU under soviet influence, except Romania).
And by 44, or by the time the Germans are weakened (since im quite sure, that at least Italy would have made a fortune trading with Germany, making Germany stronger materialwise) and the allied powers strenghtened, a DOW by Italy - and the other minors - if enough allied troops could be provided for those fronts, entirely possible.
If Italy could pull this out, switching sides succesfully at the right moment, not only would be in a much more better economic position (not US-level, but better than the brits f.e.), she may had allies (f.e. Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece and Austria, maybe even Croatia - and yes, i left out Spain, not by mistake) and beeing anti-communist, i imagine, that she would have a firm seat at the table - the western table.
Of course, there is a possibility, that Benny have to go. Not liked much by the allied powers, his pact with Hitler would have never be forgotten, but a retirement after a good peace deal, with some territorial gains could be forced by the king. A job well done, now, you should write your memoirs.
And by 44, or by the time the Germans are weakened (since im quite sure, that at least Italy would have made a fortune trading with Germany, making Germany stronger materialwise) and the allied powers strenghtened, a DOW by Italy - and the other minors - if enough allied troops could be provided for those fronts, entirely possible.
If Italy could pull this out, switching sides succesfully at the right moment, not only would be in a much more better economic position (not US-level, but better than the brits f.e.), she may had allies (f.e. Hungary, Bulgaria, Greece and Austria, maybe even Croatia - and yes, i left out Spain, not by mistake) and beeing anti-communist, i imagine, that she would have a firm seat at the table - the western table.
Of course, there is a possibility, that Benny have to go. Not liked much by the allied powers, his pact with Hitler would have never be forgotten, but a retirement after a good peace deal, with some territorial gains could be forced by the king. A job well done, now, you should write your memoirs.
Deleted member 1487
Assuming Mussolini stays out then Italy is golden post-war; Italy has Libyan oil, which while only a fraction of Italy's overall wealth will be a critical commodity for them and establish that colony as a '4th shore'. They can then help prop up a Fascist bloc for prestige, but also with work with the US/UK against the Soviets. Mussolini is without a doubt going to move into Austria and Yugoslavia in 1945 to secure its buffer zones against the Soviets and dependents, while also securing German technology and effectively providing an escape hatch for Germans of value out of retribution from the Soviets/Allies provided they have skills/knowledge Italy could use. They will be a critical ally for the US post-war, so will have a lot of leeway for their wartime/late war actions.
The thing is their neutrality helps both sides, but really ensures the Soviets get it bad in 1941 and on, because without other fronts but the Western and Eastern Germany can concentrate huge power in the East in 1941-42 and only really has to worry in 1943 about a US/UK invasion in France, which would be done by totally green US troops and UK troops not educated in modern combat in North Africa, Italy, and the Mediterranean. Germany troops won't be dispersed fighting in the Mediterranean or likely in the Balkans. If Yugoslavia is carved up in 1941 as per OTL then Italy gets its cut and effectively has its permanent sphere of interest in the Balkans, perhaps getting a free pass to invade Greece later. Germany would then be able to concentrate its limited resources in France/Western Europe to resist a Wallied invasion/any attacks, which means the first chance to be successful for the Wallies would be in 1944 after worse casualties in 1941-43. Romania is out of reach due to distance. So the Soviets/Wallies get beaten up worse to defeat Germany in the end, so perhaps the Soviets don't get as far west by the end as IOTL. Italy will have its buffer against the Soviets in the Balkans and Austria, plus its inheritance from the Nazis at the end of the war (fleeing scientists, military personnel, bureaucrats, technology, money).
In the end Italy is vastly richer and more powerful than IOTL, Austrian history is quite different and might well have a Fascist regime for a while courtesy of Italy moving in and replacing the Nazis, reviving Austro-Fascism as an alternative and dominating them. Their help against the Soviets, assuming the Soviets aren't too badly beat up compared to OTL due to butterflies, will come with aid from the US, as Italy won't need Marshall Plan money other than for Austria and can maintain its sphere in the Mediterranean. The Soviets will hate them, but they will be a pretty powerful enemy blocking their expansion; I think the communist block will stop at Hungary-Romania-Bulgaria, with Italy dominating Austria-whatever Yugoslavia is-Greece. Due to Italy staying out of the war they will probably have a better relationship with France and help out in Algeria, probably will some concessions in Tunisia. I think Italy would also, in conjunction with Spain, have influence in Latin America, particularly Argentina and Chile. Ethiopia would be an interesting place, not sure how that plays out ITTL in the end. They might get actual decolonization there and in Somalia.
In the end due to position and power and better relations with Britain Egypt won't get its independence like IOTL from Britain while the Jewish movement in Palestine probably ends up having some Italian Fascist/hiding Nazis in Italy working against them to help Britain. Without a Mediterranean theater and low overall ground combat until 1943-44 Britain won't be as broke and will have a much more firm control over the Middle East postwar. The Palestine situation could end up playing out somewhat differently. In the Cold War middle east post-colonial regimes Italy will definitely be a major player and probably have their Nazi exiles help out; IOTL Nazis were active in the middle east, like Skorzeny and rocket scientists. Assuming Italy has harbored a fair number as they ended up doing IOTL to a lesser degree, partly because of the Catholic Church helping act as a 'rat line' out of post-war Europe, there are likely a lot of Nazi intelligence specialists with anti-Soviet roles to play. Abwehr/Brandenburger/SS/whatever guys will likely be involved in the Italian military post-WW2 training them up as part of their deal to be hidden and will likely like IOTL end up training Arab militaries. A Fascist post-WW2 Italy would open up all sorts of craziness in the ME.
The thing is their neutrality helps both sides, but really ensures the Soviets get it bad in 1941 and on, because without other fronts but the Western and Eastern Germany can concentrate huge power in the East in 1941-42 and only really has to worry in 1943 about a US/UK invasion in France, which would be done by totally green US troops and UK troops not educated in modern combat in North Africa, Italy, and the Mediterranean. Germany troops won't be dispersed fighting in the Mediterranean or likely in the Balkans. If Yugoslavia is carved up in 1941 as per OTL then Italy gets its cut and effectively has its permanent sphere of interest in the Balkans, perhaps getting a free pass to invade Greece later. Germany would then be able to concentrate its limited resources in France/Western Europe to resist a Wallied invasion/any attacks, which means the first chance to be successful for the Wallies would be in 1944 after worse casualties in 1941-43. Romania is out of reach due to distance. So the Soviets/Wallies get beaten up worse to defeat Germany in the end, so perhaps the Soviets don't get as far west by the end as IOTL. Italy will have its buffer against the Soviets in the Balkans and Austria, plus its inheritance from the Nazis at the end of the war (fleeing scientists, military personnel, bureaucrats, technology, money).
In the end Italy is vastly richer and more powerful than IOTL, Austrian history is quite different and might well have a Fascist regime for a while courtesy of Italy moving in and replacing the Nazis, reviving Austro-Fascism as an alternative and dominating them. Their help against the Soviets, assuming the Soviets aren't too badly beat up compared to OTL due to butterflies, will come with aid from the US, as Italy won't need Marshall Plan money other than for Austria and can maintain its sphere in the Mediterranean. The Soviets will hate them, but they will be a pretty powerful enemy blocking their expansion; I think the communist block will stop at Hungary-Romania-Bulgaria, with Italy dominating Austria-whatever Yugoslavia is-Greece. Due to Italy staying out of the war they will probably have a better relationship with France and help out in Algeria, probably will some concessions in Tunisia. I think Italy would also, in conjunction with Spain, have influence in Latin America, particularly Argentina and Chile. Ethiopia would be an interesting place, not sure how that plays out ITTL in the end. They might get actual decolonization there and in Somalia.
In the end due to position and power and better relations with Britain Egypt won't get its independence like IOTL from Britain while the Jewish movement in Palestine probably ends up having some Italian Fascist/hiding Nazis in Italy working against them to help Britain. Without a Mediterranean theater and low overall ground combat until 1943-44 Britain won't be as broke and will have a much more firm control over the Middle East postwar. The Palestine situation could end up playing out somewhat differently. In the Cold War middle east post-colonial regimes Italy will definitely be a major player and probably have their Nazi exiles help out; IOTL Nazis were active in the middle east, like Skorzeny and rocket scientists. Assuming Italy has harbored a fair number as they ended up doing IOTL to a lesser degree, partly because of the Catholic Church helping act as a 'rat line' out of post-war Europe, there are likely a lot of Nazi intelligence specialists with anti-Soviet roles to play. Abwehr/Brandenburger/SS/whatever guys will likely be involved in the Italian military post-WW2 training them up as part of their deal to be hidden and will likely like IOTL end up training Arab militaries. A Fascist post-WW2 Italy would open up all sorts of craziness in the ME.
Oh, yeah, i forgot, that Japan would have a much harder time in this case...
Italy would act as a vital conduit of raw materials such as rubber, chromium, other rarematerials, foodstuffs, and even manufactured goods such as trucks/trains/refined metals and alloys. Germany might end up holding out until b29 carrying atom bombs obliterate a half dozen or so cities and army groups.
Interesting TL, would we see Italy as a nuclear power post war? Maybe even a seat in the Security Council?
Also would be interesting (at least to me) how Italy's military will look technologically speaking in 1945 and after that. Would their aerospace industry follow a roughly similar route to at least France's (mostly self-sufficient and highly competent)?
If they declare war against Germany in 1944, apart from presumably a good amount of LL stuff the mortified germans will be confronted with italian aircraft powered by their own engines (DB-601/605).
Also would be interesting (at least to me) how Italy's military will look technologically speaking in 1945 and after that. Would their aerospace industry follow a roughly similar route to at least France's (mostly self-sufficient and highly competent)?
If they declare war against Germany in 1944, apart from presumably a good amount of LL stuff the mortified germans will be confronted with italian aircraft powered by their own engines (DB-601/605).
Because much of the success of their offensive was due to the fact that much of the British fleet and the best troops and equipment the United Kingdom have were in Africa and the Mediterrean fighting the Italians.
Italy military effort in WW2 is considered a joke but had tied up the greater part of the Commonwealth armed forces for a couple of years
Because instead of being the historical defenses it's potentially the historical defenses plus every single unit that was busy fighting the Italians OTL.