Neutral Fascist Italy in WWII = Neutral Yugoslavia/no invasion and partition of Yugoslavia?

athgtq16129

In timelines where Fascist Italy either joins the allies (The Footprint of Mussolini), or it remains neutral (La Transizione Imperfetta), Yugoslavia still gets invaded and partitioned by Italy, Hungary, and Bulgaria, however, would this actually occur should Italy wish to remain neutral throughout the war?

Suppose that Mussolini gets assassinated in the early-mid 1930s and gets replaced by Italo Balbo, or Mussolini simply remains neutral during WW2, would one of these PODs have different consequences?, wouldn't Italy want to remain neutral by avoiding to piss off the British by invading Albania, Greece, and then Yugoslavia?

In the specific scenario of Mussolini getting assassinated and replaced (the scenario of La Transizione Imperfetta), would a Fascist Italy led by Italo Balbo still invade Albania, Montenegro, and Yugoslavia?, the invasion of Ethiopia seemed almost inevitable, but outright doing things that would piss off the allies would be a less smart move, since if Italy does not gets humiliated in Greece, then the Germans do not need to come to save it and waste a crapton of resources in invading and occupying such a large area in the Balkans.

The topic of whenever if a neutral Italy would still invade Albania, Montenegro, and Greece for example is also something that I really wanted to know about, but I would prefer this to be its own separate thread, Yugoslavia is the focus in here.
 

lukedalton

Invading Greece? Doubtfoul, it was done OTL to prop up Benny and Italy political and military status after the mess in North Africa...and it was done only because Berlin nixed the real target aka Jugoslavia, plus Greece was seen as belonging to the British sphere of influence so getting in a war with them will be a big no no. Said that whoever is in charge will press London to 'convince' Greece to give concession to Italy.
Regarding Jugoslavia, well the problem is that Hitler don't want any problem at the eve of Barbarossa and OTL invaded in reaction to pro-british coup (at least in his mind), so they can invade or convince Italy and the others to do the dirty work for them
 

Evil Crusader

If Mussolini remains at the helm, the chances of an eventual showdown are virtually 100%. Completing the irredenta fits nicely in his bombastic foreign policy, and Jugoslavia is that much fragile (and surrounded by enemies). It's a when, not if.
Balbo at the helm changes everything. He's likely to not pursue any more aggressive expansion and focus on advancement and growth. If Jugoslavia bursts into conflict, it still is possible that Italy tries to secure Dalmatia; the occasion may prove too tempting, and it's not like anybody is going to seriously oppose it.
 
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