Military Capacity of Both Sides of the Spanish Civil War/PODs during said war?

[Mr. Magi]

I'm rather curious on what the military capacity of the Nationalists and Republicans was during the beginning of the Spanish Civil War. Much of this curiosity has to do with the fact that I referenced the Frente Popular at one point in my little election game when I revealed the winner of the 1936 elections.

I'm mostly in the dark on this subject; I know that the sides were often split (loosely) between Military, Catholics, and Carlists for the Nationalists; and Rebublicans, Socialists, and the far left for the Republican side. I know that both sides received some level of support from other nations, with Germany and Italy throwing quite a bit towards the Nationalists, and the Soviets supplying armor and small arms to the Republican in exchange for their gold reserves. That's about all I know though. I'd love to hear more information about the forces at hand for this civil war; what each party in this struggle had and the like.

I'm mostly curious to see where would be some possible points where the Republicans could've won against the Nationalists. One I vaguely picked up on was having Franco remaining neutral/mildly supportive of the government due to fellows like Mola saying rude things at him, but what are some other divergences that could affect a Republican victory?

 

[TxCoatl1970]

The big problems the Republicans faced at the git-go was the horrible state of the Spanish army in terms of outdated gear, poor tactics, and abysmal logistics IF they had everything in the inventory in 1936.

The nationalists managed to yoink 80% of what officer and NCO cadre the Spanish Army had, leaving the Republic with a bunch of geezer generals trying to herd the cats from various political militias ranging from anarchists, rightist social democrats in PSOE to Communists to democrats who had as much fun sniping at each other as firing downrange at the Nationalists.

FWIW while the Republican army was paralyzed, militias were the ones confronting the Nationalist troops with scratch weaponry and enthusiasm vs veteran, trained trroops with heavy weaponry.

It didn't help that the Guardia Civil (national police but more like the Italian carbinieri) were in the nationalists' pocket and brutally suppressed the anarchist and socialist militias when the Moorish legion came across the straits to Andalucia allowing them to (A) get a foothold unmolested and (B) tear through to Murcia and Aragon (Spain's breadbasket) as well as guarantee uninterrupted supplies from Portugal.

So within two months, the Republic goes from dealing with a comic-opera coup and instead finds itself dealing with huge swathes of western Spain under Nationalist control.

What made the war such a mess for the Republicans was while they had plenty of industry in Madrid, Barcelona and Bilbao, they had zero capital to work with and arms embargoes by the democracies and everyone else, enforced by the British and French navies while the Nationalists were lavishly equipped by the Germans and Italians.

so what could the Republic have done to win the SCW?

#1 Butterfly the anti-clerical campaign and pre-SCW lawlessness that absolutely disgusted Western democracies and center-right support for the Republic.

#2 The plot gets discovered in Morocco and units of the Guardia Civil and army round up the plotters and shoot them. Without the Moorish Legion as cadre, rebellion goes nowhere.

#3 Spanish navy manages to interdict the Germans trying to sealift Moorish legion and slaugters the transports. If Germans try firing back, war is declared. Germany ajnd italy get bitch-slapped by LoN. WWII as we know it in Europe is butterflied.

#4 Get Leon Blum to realize the French right-wing threat is a damp squib and give substantial aid to the Spanish Republic. With French support of the Republic, the Condor legion and italian expeditionary forces are toast.

It'd give the French military valuable experience to improve coordination between air and ground forces, mobile warfare tactics, and unclog the sclerotic nature of French military strategy and TOE.

 

[Comisario]

I don't mean to blow my own trumpet, but... (Check my signature)

 

[Mr. Magi]

The big problems the Republicans faced at the git-go was the horrible state of the Spanish army in terms of outdated gear, poor tactics, and abysmal logistics IF they had everything in the inventory in 1936.

The nationalists managed to yoink 80% of what officer and NCO cadre the Spanish Army had, leaving the Republic with a bunch of geezer generals trying to herd the cats from various political militias ranging from anarchists, rightist social democrats in PSOE to Communists to democrats who had as much fun sniping at each other as firing downrange at the Nationalists.

FWIW while the Republican army was paralyzed, militias were the ones confronting the Nationalist troops with scratch weaponry and enthusiasm vs veteran, trained trroops with heavy weaponry.

It didn't help that the Guardia Civil (national police but more like the Italian carbinieri) were in the nationalists' pocket and brutally suppressed the anarchist and socialist militias when the Moorish legion came across the straits to Andalucia allowing them to (A) get a foothold unmolested and (B) tear through to Murcia and Aragon (Spain's breadbasket) as well as guarantee uninterrupted supplies from Portugal.

So within two months, the Republic goes from dealing with a comic-opera coup and instead finds itself dealing with huge swathes of western Spain under Nationalist control.

What made the war such a mess for the Republicans was while they had plenty of industry in Madrid, Barcelona and Bilbao, they had zero capital to work with and arms embargoes by the democracies and everyone else, enforced by the British and French navies while the Nationalists were lavishly equipped by the Germans and Italians.

so what could the Republic have done to win the SCW?

#1 Butterfly the anti-clerical campaign and pre-SCW lawlessness that absolutely disgusted Western democracies and center-right support for the Republic.

#2 The plot gets discovered in Morocco and units of the Guardia Civil and army round up the plotters and shoot them. Without the Moorish Legion as cadre, rebellion goes nowhere.

#3 Spanish navy manages to interdict the Germans trying to sealift Moorish legion and slaugters the transports. If Germans try firing back, war is declared. Germany ajnd italy get bitch-slapped by LoN. WWII as we know it in Europe is butterflied.

#4 Get Leon Blum to realize the French right-wing threat is a damp squib and give substantial aid to the Spanish Republic. With French support of the Republic, the Condor legion and italian expeditionary forces are toast.

It'd give the French military valuable experience to improve coordination between air and ground forces, mobile warfare tactics, and unclog the sclerotic nature of French military strategy and TOE.

Thanks for the extra information; it added some perspective to things. I knew the Republicans were not well off when it came to their military, but I didn't think it was THAT bad. I mean, the fact that their NCO and Officer Corp vanished was bad enough. The extra disadvantage of having an army so bad that you can have a squad of goons, none of them with any uniforms mind you, shooting each other in the face with prison guns they made out of dead wood, and with four of them facing the wrong way just makes it worse. Especially when you have the opponent be an actual squad of soldiers with some actual equipment, like machine guns or an armored car.

I am grateful for the POD ideas of yours too. Especially having the Frente Popular chill out and not completely alienate Europe (I might as well spoil things and say I'll use this for the game I'm doing in Shared Worlds). I also like the idea of having Blum's government calming down over the threats of coups. I think I can use these two, since the POD for the game was in 1932, with a far-left coalition having a successful rule of government. Those two seem fairly reasonable occurrences since they synergize with each other.

I'll be sure to read your TL Comisario. I'm sure it'll be interesting.

As I peruse said story, any more information about each force and their capabilities would be grand. Actually, general information on the war would be fine too.

 

[kung Zog]

#4 Get Leon Blum to realize the French right-wing threat is a damp squib and give substantial aid to the Spanish Republic. With French support of the Republic, the Condor legion and italian expeditionary forces are toast.

Well, he was nearly murdered by them so I can understand the reasoning.

And, if he would give substantial aid, which he tried, he would lose his post quickly when the Radicals would leave him (as they did later on)...

 

[Mr. Magi]

Well, he was nearly murdered by them so I can understand the reasoning.

And, if he would give substantial aid, which he tried, he would lose his post quickly when the Radicals would leave him (as they did later on)...

Ah. That makes some sense. How much support could France feasibly give anyway?

Also, what would a less isolated Republic have access to? I figure with a successful model for how a left-wing coalition would work (In the US), they'd be less prone to the whole anti-church/forcing of communes on their land/cowboy thing.

 

[TxCoatl1970]

Well, if the French Navy goes from enforcing the embargo on the Republic to enforcng it on the Nationalists, and squeezing Portugal enough that Salazar's economy crashes, the Kondor Legion and italian expeditionary forces' effectiveness withers away pretty quick w/o fuel, ammo, and spare parts/replacement gear.

That's substantial w/o one poilu on the ground.

With French logisitical help and materiel coming in by railcar instead of dribbling in by the occasioanl shipload, the Republic can actually go on the offensive.

I've speculated before that French troops helping the Republic would be very controversial on both sides of the Pyrenees.

You might think the Peninsular War between Napoleon and the guerrillas was old news, but it'd be a great recruiting poster for the Nationalists for much the same reasons.

The French was to force "modernity" down our throats again?

One thing that crippled France's defense against the Germans in 1940 was a miserable sortie rate by the AdA.

A German squadron would put out three or four sorties to one by a French squadron. The French had decent planes and motivation, but horrific coordination with ground forces and each other so despite having an advantage in numbers of planes and being on home turf, their effectiveness sucked compared to the Luftwaffe.

I could certianly hope that the French army and AdA getting some experience in Spain would convince their upper echelons to adopt more flexible combined-arms tactics instead of trying to re-fight WWI.

YMMDV, but if Blum didn't back down and made a definite commitment to the Spanish Republic, neither Spain nor France would fall to fascism.

 

[Mr. Magi]

Well, if the French Navy goes from enforcing the embargo on the Republic to enforcng it on the Nationalists, and squeezing Portugal enough that Salazar's economy crashes, the Kondor Legion and italian expeditionary forces' effectiveness withers away pretty quick w/o fuel, ammo, and spare parts/replacement gear.

How would the UK feel about this situation though? My base knowledge is that they were in many ways a restraining bolt to France; the French tended to be a more active, but were told to back down by the UK. Would the UK condone a total blockade?

That's substantial w/o one poilu on the ground.

With French logisitical help and materiel coming in by railcar instead of dribbling in by the occasioanl shipload, the Republic can actually go on the offensive.

Well hell. Combined with what I picked up from Comisario's evaluation, it seems that a decent sized factor for their failure was supplies. Heck, the point in time I'm looking at can favor them.

Actually, if the Frente Popular was a bit more restrained on their programs, how much would that change its opinion in Europe? Would it lessen their isolation? I'm kind of thinking that with a successful model to base a popular front around (Since my interest is driven by Building Bridges to a degree and the American Party can be called a Popular Front), their policies would be a bit more directed and restrained... well as directed and restrained as a Social Democrat/Communist/Anarchist coalition can be in a new democracy.

I've speculated before that French troops helping the Republic would be very controversial on both sides of the Pyrenees.

You might think the Peninsular War between Napoleon and the guerrillas was old news, but it'd be a great recruiting poster for the Nationalists for much the same reasons.

The French was to force "modernity" down our throats again?

I kind of got some idea on how powerful the Peninsular War is engrained in Spanish minds due to Milarqui's La Gloriosa. The Spanish got pretty supportive of the new government because of French intervention against them. I wouldn't be shocked that that would have a negative effect based on that, and the Nationalists can also point out that the French too have elected commies to boot.

One thing that crippled France's defense against the Germans in 1940 was a miserable sortie rate by the AdA.

A German squadron would put out three or four sorties to one by a French squadron. The French had decent planes and motivation, but horrific coordination with ground forces and each other so despite having an advantage in numbers of planes and being on home turf, their effectiveness sucked compared to the Luftwaffe.

I actually picked up from A Blunted Sickle that the AdA was prone to defeatism and the abject fear of getting shot down, despite not being that horrible of a force. I remember hearing that the officer corp were a big factor in this way of thinking and the horrible sortie rate, even going so far as hiding their numbers during Fall Gelb to not go out to fly.

Not sure if that's fully accurate, but that's what I know of the AdA.

I could certianly hope that the French army and AdA getting some experience in Spain would convince their upper echelons to adopt more flexible combined-arms tactics instead of trying to re-fight WWI.

YMMDV, but if Blum didn't back down and made a definite commitment to the Spanish Republic, neither Spain nor France would fall to fascism.

So I see the French possibly being more inclined to ship and cart supplies then, maybe keeping a rail line or two going along with the ports. I think that having any large numbers of French troops or planes shift down to assist is implausible based on what I'm getting from everyone I've read and listened to.

 

[Damascius]

#1 is dead simple. The Army of Africa is stranded there, either due to Republican Naval interference in the crossing or Mussolini deciding that he was not sending planes (his initial reaction was negative before he swung behind the nationalists)

 

[Mr. Magi]

#1 is dead simple. The Army of Africa is stranded there, either due to Republican Naval interference in the crossing or Mussolini deciding that he was not sending planes (his initial reaction was negative before he swung behind the nationalists)

How long did it take for Mussolini to warm up to them actually? Just for curiousity's sake.

And based on what I wrote as an aside, I made it ambiguous enough to where this method could work just as well as the other method of having a Nationalist collapse in '37/'38 due to a different supply lay out for the Republic and different outcomes to some key fights in the war.

 

[TxCoatl1970]

@ Mr Magi-- You have excellent points re: UK reaction, but say France bolts from the UK's definition of being "responsible" IOW- enabling Hitler to take out all those nasty Commies.

There was a lot of Hitler-worship or apologists in UK Conservative circles pretty much until the invasion of Poland and M-R Pact that carved it up.

It has some definite questions re the Entente Cordiale in 1940.

As for French support- sending supplies, especialy materiel is nowhere near as controversial as French troops on the ground.

I argue that France didn't need to do very much, but improving on the way the USSR dribbled resources in covertly by ship vs what France could do by the railcar is worlds apart for the Republicans' capabilities and morale.

Say the Croix de Feu gets pissed and tries sabotaging those shipments.
They get branded as German collaborators and shunned and shut down hard.

Letting Spanish troops train on French planes, tanks, and so forth, how to equip and run a more modern army would do wonders for the Republican army and having observers see what the Germans and Italaians had and did would do a lot to shake the sclerotic rot IF anyone paid attention back in France.

I'm going on a bit b/c the Spanish Republic with all of its faults was nowhere near as bloody-minded or backward as the Nationalists were.

You could argue it was just a matter of time and span of control. Whoever was in charge in Spain Republican or Nationalist, after "winning" the Civil War was going to be heavy-handed, brutal, and intolerant. That may be.

I'm arguing that w/o the USSR as the only folks sending substantial help (other than Mexico) Communism and the Stalinist vision of a centralized, authoritarian oligarchy wouldn't be nearly as attractive as the way to combat fascism and thus get a lot more support from various nations.

YMMDV.