I think we can have a fairly late PoD and I suggest the Battle of Hanau in late October 1813. In OTL an Austro-Baviarian army under the Bavarian General Wrede tried to block Napoleon's retreat from Leipzig, but were brushed aside, not at least because they ran out of ammo in the midst of battle ( a staff officer had forgotten the ammo train at Würzburg!).
It will not be difficult with minor PoDs to have the Bavarians win this battle and kill/capture Napoleon. That will drastically change the roles in Germany - in short Prussia's role will be much diminished and that of Bavaria magnified. The Bavarians apparently had plans about dominating southern Germany and in a TL like this they will have splendid opportunity. Wrede will be a splendid organiser in this TL.
In the post war years they will first of all stand as those who liberated Germany from Napoleon, and will increasingly find opposition from the conservative Austrians, but will easily find support in Germany. So we have a conflict between the Habsburgs and a Bavarian led German federation of some kind and the Bavarians/Germans winning all-out. Could be followed by/combined with a claim on the Imperial Throne. A Catholic Bavarian Monarch can easier do that than a protestant Prussian, and anyway the Wittelsbacher had done it before in 18th century. Why not have the Bavarians claim rebirth to the HRE and in that process (through a number of lucky campaigns) swallow the Habsburg's posessions - those whimps who gave up the HRE just because they were scared of some frogs...
At some time I guess the Prussians and other N.Germans will be pissed about the S.German/Catholic dominance, but judging from your map the Emperor in Munich and the King of Denmark has found together in oppressing the rebellious N.Germans - and the King of Denmark rewarded with Slesvig-Holsten and possibly more (Oldenburg and Lauenburg?).
The Kingdom of Prussia apparently is gone, and Ruhr seem to be included in the Kingdom of Bavaria.
Alsass-Lothringen being German could be the result already at the first post-Napoleonic peace agreement, but could of course also be the result of a Franco-German war.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard