Malê Rising

[TFSmith121]

Somewhere, the Male-verse equivalents of

… At the desert’s southern edge, another challenge awaited: the slow advance of the dunes into the Sahelian nations. Several dry years in the early 1960s, combined with overgrazing, decimated the grasses that anchored the soil, and by the end of the decade, the desert was on the march. [9] At the time, no one knew and few guessed that this was a forerunner of a changing global climate, but it was clear that no one state could fight the desert alone, and that doing so required a Belloist community of nations.
In 1969, in response to a Malian initiative, representatives of the Sahelian nations – including France, represented by the Senegalese departmental government – met at an encampment by the Tree of Ténéré, an acacia located in greater Bornu more than 400 kilometers from the nearest other tree. [10] There, they agreed to pool their resources for plantings and other anti-desertification measures, jointly manage subterranean aquifers and oases, and regulate nomadic land use, and pledged that the richer Sahelian states would help the poorer ones implement farming and herding practices that would minimize overgrazing and deforestation. The League of the Tree of Ténéré, as it was called, would be the first multinational authority established for primarily environmental reasons, and it would include all the Sahelian nations from Bornu and its vassals all the way to Senegal…

Somewhere, the Male-verse equivalents of Rachel Carson and Frank Herbert are smiling...

Entertaining stuff.

Best,

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

For those who haven't yet seen it, the update is on the previous page at post 6208.

I'm surprised that given South America's different borders and somewhat spotty history a Amazon River Authority or similar hasn't sprung up. It seems like TTL would be the perfect venue for an organization to safeguard the waters, the watershed, and the people who live along it.

Shhh, don't give away spoilers. This hasn't happened yet because several of the necessary countries are politically dysfunctional for much of the 1950s and 60s, but a push to internationalize the Amazon is on tap for later.

Excellent update, by the way. I'm particularly interested in the Mossi and how neo-colonialism (of a sort) may play out as they interact with their neighbors.

The Mossi are in an interesting dilemma: they've kept their culture purer than nearly any other African people, but in doing so, they've made themselves economically vulnerable, and their draconian preservation measures have alienated many people. The 70s through 90s will have many twists and turns for them.

Somewhere, the Male-verse equivalents of Rachel Carson and Frank Herbert are smiling...

No doubt. The greater industrial development of West Africa ITTL is a two-edged sword: on the one hand, it means that the Sahelian nations are facing environmental problems earlier, but it also means that they're in a much better position to do something about it. And the Belloist ideology that runs across many of the front-line states inclines them to face the problem together.

Europe next, to close out 1955-70.

 

[TFSmith121]

Okay, so the next question - who is the Maleverse

No doubt. The greater industrial development of West Africa ITTL is a two-edged sword: on the one hand, it means that the Sahelian nations are facing environmental problems earlier, but it also means that they're in a much better position to do something about it. And the Belloist ideology that runs across many of the front-line states inclines them to face the problem together.

Okay, so the next obvious question - who is the Maleverse analogue of Edward Abbey?

One final paragraph of advice: do not burn yourselves out. Be as I am — a reluctant enthusiast... a part-time crusader, a half-hearted fanatic. Save the other half of yourselves and your lives for pleasure and adventure. It is not enough to fight for the land; it is even more important to enjoy it. While you can. While it’s still here. So get out there and hunt and fish and mess around with your friends, ramble out yonder and explore the forests, climb the mountains, bag the peaks, run the rivers, breathe deep of that yet sweet and lucid air, sit quietly for a while and contemplate the precious stillness, the lovely, mysterious, and awesome space. Enjoy yourselves, keep your brain in your head and your head firmly attached to the body, the body active and alive, and I promise you this much; I promise you this one sweet victory over our enemies, over those desk-bound men and women with their hearts in a safe deposit box, and their eyes hypnotized by desk calculators. I promise you this; You will outlive the bastards.

Best,

 

[Ganesha]

The Mossi are in an interesting dilemma: they've kept their culture purer than nearly any other African people, but in doing so, they've made themselves economically vulnerable, and their draconian preservation measures have alienated many people. The 70s through 90s will have many twists and turns for them.

Do they see other West African states as less pure? Would they see themselves as morally superior? It's an interesting position to be in in this world of more bi-directional colonial relationships.

Europe next, to close out 1955-70.

Looking forward to the updates!

 

[wannis]

Would the later German unification of TTL affect that, though? ITTL the North German Confederation lasted thirty years, meaning that government wasn't centralized in Berlin until the late 1890s. Would this give another city such as Frankfurt or one of the Hanseatic city-states time to become pre-eminent in finance, or would the pull of Berlin as the Prussian capital and the NDB's center of gravity still draw most of the bankers there?

That might help. I think this has been dicussed before, but I don't remember - Frankfurt stays a free city state, with ITTL's Prusso-Austrian war going differently? That might help as well. OTOH, I read in several sources (one of them here - PDF in German) that two big reasons for Frankfurt falling behind was that (1) it was more conservative and due to earlier crashes mistrusted shares, listing only a few while concentrating on bonds, so missing out on the boom in share emissions in the second half of the 19th century, and (2) that it also fought the new wave of joint-stock bank corporations, protecting the private banks that dominated Frankfurt; the latter then were not able to compete with the amounts of financing the joint-stock banks were able to provide, making Frankfurt again to lose out on business. For that reason, Frankfurt was overtaken not only by Berlin, but also by Hamburg, which was more open to innovation. I assume Frankfurt not becoming a part of Prussia in 1866 might even increase the conservative streak of Frankfurt, as the private bankers would be able to lobby local Frankfurt financial legislation much more than Prussian legislation. Hamburg really took off only after the unification of Germany, when the chance to profit from the economic boom became stronger than the conservatism of the traditional merchant class. So, if you don't want to butterfly these tendencies away, I'd expect Berlin and Hamburg to slug it out for the first place ITTL.

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

Okay, so the next obvious question - who is the Maleverse analogue of Edward Abbey?

There would almost have to be someone like him, wouldn't there? His analogue ITTL would probably be one of the cranky right-wing environmentalists, the ones who believe that conservation is necessary to maintain traditional ways of life and leisure (with or without dodgy cultural ideas), and would distinguish himself from his comrades with a touch of individualist anarchism.

BTW, in case it isn't clear already, one effect of environmentalism having a broader presence across the political spectrum is that there are several distinct approaches to the environmental movement, which may be allies of convenience on certain issues but are often at cross purposes. Left, right, anarchist and religious environmentalists don't always get along, and find homes in different parties.

Speaking of eccentric environmentalists, I wonder if TTL will have a Pentti Linkola. Another side effect of broader environmental consciousness is that more crackpots will latch onto it. I could imagine someone like him among the more fanatic Shelterers.

Do they see other West African states as less pure? Would they see themselves as morally superior? It's an interesting position to be in in this world of more bi-directional colonial relationships.

The hard-line, hermit-kingdom faction does see the neighboring cultures as impure. They don't view culture as dynamic, and they believe that the neighboring states sold out to Europe, Islam or both and lost themselves in the process. And they do think of themselves as morally superior: they resisted while others let themselves be conquered. Their view of things is in large part myth, of course, but that's true of much nationalism.

The conflict now that the hard-liners are out of power could be interesting. The right wing sees the fight for preservation as more important than ever while the modernists are conflicted: they have a forbidden-fruit attraction to the cosmopolitanism of the Niger Valley and the Francophone Sahel, but they've also bought into the idea that culture is a national treasure.

That might help. I think this has been dicussed before, but I don't remember - Frankfurt stays a free city state, with ITTL's Prusso-Austrian war going differently?

No, it got mediatized; Hannover was the only state that survived ITTL other than the ones that did so IOTL. So Frankfurt might end up losing out due to its own conservatism as well as Prussian policies favoring Berlin, and as you say, Berlin and Hamburg could be competitors for financial prominence in the twentieth century.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Ok, I have updated the map with the corrections noted above. Is there anything else I've missed?

For ex, is Guinea a part of the Afro-Atlantic Common Market by now?

 

[Falecius]

It's not very important, but the Venetian, Friulian and Giulian autonomous areas should be smaller toward the West.
Also, I'd expect Sardinia to have reached a comparable degree of autonomy by 1970.

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

Is there anything else I've missed?

Mongolia needs the same colouring as Xinjiang and/or the Amur Republic.

 

[Dr. Niles]

Great map! However, I believe Korea is now in association with Japan not Russia after TTL's Sino-Russian War.

 

[Grand Prince Paul II.]

However, I believe Korea is now in association with Japan not Russia after TTL's Sino-Russian War.

Post-Sino-Russian War Korea is a fully independent country.
The new ties to Japan did merely help balance Korea's deep ties to Russia.

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

Also, I'd expect Sardinia to have reached a comparable degree of autonomy by 1970.

Most likely - Sardinia would want autonomy, and with autonomous zones already existing in the north, there would be no principled reason to deny it. There would be a political battle, but I'd expect it to be over by 1970.

I don't think there are any other parts of Italy that would want something comparable, though - do you? Sicily, maybe?

Mongolia needs the same colouring as Xinjiang and/or the Amur Republic.

It should, although I'm not sure what the color should be - Mongolia and Xinjiang are both under nominal Chinese sovereignty, and Chinese influence in 1970 has recovered to the point where it's about equal to Russian. Amur is much more Russian-aligned, and Chinese sovereignty there is a very thin veneer.

Great map! However, I believe Korea is now in association with Japan not Russia after TTL's Sino-Russian War.

Post-Sino-Russian War Korea is a fully independent country.
The new ties to Japan did merely help balance Korea's deep ties to Russia.

Grand Prince Paul is correct - Korea is connected to both Japan and Russia but is fully independent. If anything, the Korean Republic is more influenced by Russian religion and radical agrarian politics than by anything Japanese; its ties to Japan, although strong, are mainly defensive and commercial, while Russian influence has gone deep into the culture.

 

[Neoteros]

Most likely - Sardinia would want autonomy, and with autonomous zones already existing in the north, there would be no principled reason to deny it. There would be a political battle, but I'd expect it to be over by 1970.

I don't think there are any other parts of Italy that would want something comparable, though - do you? Sicily, maybe?

An autonomous Sicily would be even more likely than an autonomous Friuli. There are plenty of other parts of Italy with a strong regional identity that could want autonomy as well, like the Aosta Valley and the rest of the South. However, an Italy where OTL's cultural and linguistic genocide has not taken place, or has been halted by the events before, during and after the Great War, could end up being as diverse as Spain, if not even more so: everyone except those living in central Italy would want autonomy, maybe even Tuscany would.

 

[Falecius]

Most likely - Sardinia would want autonomy, and with autonomous zones already existing in the north, there would be no principled reason to deny it. There would be a political battle, but I'd expect it to be over by 1970.

I don't think there are any other parts of Italy that would want something comparable, though - do you? Sicily, maybe?

Very likely Sicily.
Maybe some Alpine areas too, but probably too small for the scale of the map. And possibly Italian Eritrea.
However, I expect Italy as a whole to decentralize a lot ITTL in the aftermath of the Venetian Revolution, so that their degree of autonomy could be not much above the average for any other part of the country. The minority language rural areas will enjoy broader cultural rights, but with the possible exception of the province of Aosta, that would not warrant a separate representation on that map any more than the US Indian Reservation have. And ITTL, Aosta will probably feel a hell of a lot less "French" than IOTL (not that they do feel French that much IOTL as far as I know). A close up map of Italy ITTL by the seventies would probably look like a major mess, with all sort of Legatum special statutes given out like candy by the Crown overlapping with something resembling the Medieval Communes jigsaw puzzle, intersecting with smaller semi-autonomous patches of Anarchists and special minority areas all over the place. But in general, on a world map scale only Friuli, Sardinia and (possibly) Sicily will be apparent (well, there's also the Vatican and Venice, but they are dots here).

 

[Falecius]

An autonomous Sicily would be even more likely than an autonomous Friuli. There are plenty of other parts of Italy with a strong regional identity that could want autonomy as well, like the Aosta Valley and the rest of the South. However, an Italy where OTL's cultural and linguistic genocide has not taken place, or has been halted by the events before, during and after the Great War, could end up being as diverse as Spain, if not even more so: everyone except those living in central Italy would want autonomy, maybe even Tuscany would.

ITTL, Tuscany certainly would (as everyone else). Not as a unitary region, though. Do you really think that Pisa and Livorno would ever willingly submit themselves to a higher regional authority, much less so one base in - God forbid - Florence ? Every single valley of Tuscany would have be its own semi-autonomous area.*
That is, by the way, why I am not entirely sure that Sicily would be, as a whole, an autonomous part of Italy. It is true that it has a particularly strong regional identity (unlike, for example again, Tuscany, where urban identity is more prevalent) but it could be divided into smaller unities.

* Tuscany would also be so full to the brim with Legatum special administrations that it could be administratively convenient, although politically impossible, to put the whole place under international administration.

 

[Jonathan Edelstein]

For ex, is Guinea a part of the Afro-Atlantic Common Market by now?

Sorry, missed this. Yes, Guinea is a member by 1970. The military government actually takes an almost Ba'athist attitude toward Afro-Atlantism, maintaining that Guinea isn't a nation-state in itself but a unit of the Afro-Atlantic nation. This is the government's attempt to defuse the issue of which ethnic group should control the state by focusing identity on something larger than both. As we'll see during the 1970-2000 cycle, this won't be entirely successful, but it will impact the Afro-Atlantic world going forward.

An autonomous Sicily would be even more likely than an autonomous Friuli. There are plenty of other parts of Italy with a strong regional identity that could want autonomy as well, like the Aosta Valley and the rest of the South.

Very likely Sicily. Maybe some Alpine areas too, but probably too small for the scale of the map. And possibly Italian Eritrea.

However, I expect Italy as a whole to decentralize a lot ITTL in the aftermath of the Venetian Revolution, so that their degree of autonomy could be not much above the average for any other part of the country. The minority language rural areas will enjoy broader cultural rights, but with the possible exception of the province of Aosta, that would not warrant a separate representation on that map any more than the US Indian Reservation have.

Fair enough - so there would be cultural and administrative decentralization that affects every region of Italy, and the areas marked on the map would be those that are more autonomous than the others.

Looking at Sicilian politics since 1945 IOTL: the independence party has never done well, but the autonomists have controlled the regional government a couple of times, and part of the reason the independence party fizzled may have been that the Republic allowed considerable autonomy to begin with. ITTL, with the autonomy precedent already set, Sicily might demand at least as much as Venice is getting - a "most favored province" status. The bulk of the regions, I guess, would be satisfied with local control of language policy, education and cultural patrimony.

 

[TFSmith121]

Abbey was Thoreau with an attitude...

There would almost have to be someone like him, wouldn't there? His analogue ITTL would probably be one of the cranky right-wing environmentalists, the ones who believe that conservation is necessary to maintain traditional ways of life and leisure (with or without dodgy cultural ideas), and would distinguish himself from his comrades with a touch of individualist anarchism.

Abbey was Thoreau with an attitude...

Maybe a West African or North African dedicated to the conservation of the Sahel as a livestock range-shading-into-desert preserve?

Your waves of West African industrialization, or North African/Westernization, presumably would generate a lot of stressors, and a reaction to urbanization and "settled" behaviour.

Along those lines, who is the Maleverse/African Gifford Pinchot or John Muir?

Best,

 

[Neoteros]

I've read the article about Pentti Linkola on Wikipedia and, well... he does make a few good points but, going from "overpopulation is bad, and the environment must be protected" to "Genocide and nuclear holocaust are great ideas, and modern technology is evil" is... well, only a truly insane mind could do that. And you said there will be more people like him in ATL?

 

[Falecius]

Fair enough - so there would be cultural and administrative decentralization that affects every region of Italy, and the areas marked on the map would be those that are more autonomous than the others.

This would be the most logical path IMVHO. The Venetian affair would set up in motion powerful forces to decentralize. I might write a guest update on it when I have time (that is, not now).

Looking at Sicilian politics since 1945 IOTL: the independence party has never done well, but the autonomists have controlled the regional government a couple of times, and part of the reason the independence party fizzled may have been that the Republic allowed considerable autonomy to begin with. ITTL, with the autonomy precedent already set, Sicily might demand at least as much as Venice is getting - a "most favored province" status. The bulk of the regions, I guess, would be satisfied with local control of language policy, education and cultural patrimony.

There would be fiscal and land issues as well, but the whole call for lower and closer to home fiscality that hegemonized much of Northern Italy is rooted in a model of industrial development that might not be so prominent ITTL - in the South, however, most local administration will want some say in land reform and land use at the very least.
Italy ITTL might resemble Switzerland by the 2000.
Sicilian independence/autonomy parties are mostly a post WWII thing IOTL - but the strong sense of Sicilian identity goes far beyond that and will certainly be a powerful force ITTL.

 

[othyrsyde]

I haven't had much to say other than good job. I especially love the dancing revolutions. Though it does seem Abacar's dream of a greater Nigerian Federation is largely dead, not that I'm complaining. It did seem like a rather idealic thing rather than something being seen by both elites and the masses as a practical necessity, such as what India needed to attain independence.