I would've updated in the last week but the flu has been spreading across campus in the last week and I've been having hellish congestion issues. Thus I've mostly been bedridden in my free time and haven't had any creative juices flowing. I am taking medication now so hopefully I can write something soon.
Ack, sorry to hear that. Rest up and take of yourself, the TL can dang well wait.
Hmm, continuing thoughts of the ITTL Spanish American War:
Even before Toombs is discovered I think there will be tension. in part because the Radical Republicans abolitionist agenda will be offended by the slavery colony across the straits. The RRs have little to lose pushing such with Texas now a free nation, Brazil is too far away and not tied to the USA enough to be a concern right now. the Black States would be natural allies to this. Then beyond party lines you would just have the nationalists and imperialists who want to expand the Union, period.
And of course like OTL I expect there will be a lot of outcry in the American public over the methods used by Colonial authorities against rebels. Yellow Journalism also playing its role in all likelihood.
Then the DR joins the Lone Star Republic, and the American nationalists flip out. Because prior to the ACW most Americans I think regarded Texas much like Quebec, a little brother of sorts. Proud of their achievements, befuddled by their choices(Seguin and the ICA) but still not in the same league. But now Texas had withstood a lot in the Mexican War, and helped France seize Veracruz in the Post War order.
Not only is Texas moving on its own against American interests they think, but the French are showing they can still make waves in the New World. Things like the Southwest Pact and French influence in Central America suddenly get cast in a new light. The USA it seems is not just inevitable in dominating the region they now think.
Now a lot of this is paranoia, for one we know France even after Veracruz is looking more to Asia and Africa for colonial ventures. And that Austin and Merida are in no way Paris' lackeys each serving their own agenda under the umbrella of alliance. But a perceived threat motivates much as a real one. And so the imperialist/nationalists in America, Cuba can't just be left hanging, lest it get snatched away by the 'French crowd'.
And once Toombs is found its seized on these various forces as a catalyst for war. Basically they claim only two possibilities exist, either Spain is so incompetent they let a neo Confederate Force grow under their watch, or they deliberately harbored an international criminal and possibly aided his terrorist plots. All of this propaganda of course implying Cuba is practically crawling with diehards ready to cross the straits, seize Florida and kick off round two of the ACW.
So with the public whipped up in anger and fear the American government issues an ultimatum, for the Spanish to allow a significant American military force onto Cuba to end this threat to American security. this is framed as the least Spain can do, proving their lack of ill intent toward the USA. If they refuse its presented as proof they are treacherous or apathetic to America's peril. The Spanish of course are outraged that after turning over the archtraitor Toombs to the USA, they are commanded to allow their territory be invaded by American forces!
What Spain does at that point would matter little, as the USA is determined for war, so anything less than complete submission to the demands will lead to war.
That's my theory.