Mexico too.
If Mexico enjoys a brief oil boom as a result of a prolonged Gulf War, that might affect NAFTA, illegal immigration, etc. issues in the 1990s.
Mexico too.
Looking at a map of Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni blockade of the Red Sea will keep units from coming down the Suez from turning the corner of Arabia without a fight, but as far as bringing troops and supplies, all they really need to do is come through the Suez Canal and go to Jeddah. The Yemeni action might not nearly be as effective as I initially thought.
Of course, getting carrier battle groups into the Persian Gulf itself will require forcing the Red Sea, but couldn't they operate against Iraq from the eastern Mediterranean?
(Syria might allow overflights and Jordan if they decide to ally with the West rather than go for the Hejaz. And if Jordan joins Saddam, there'll be aerial attacks on them.)
What kind of anti-ship missile assets do the Yemenis have and what kind of goodies did or could the Iraqis get to them before the war began? The Yemeni Navy doesn't strike me as being able to put up a significant fight, but throwing lots of missiles at ships does play on ships' vulnerability to aircraft and missile attack.
If Mexico enjoys a brief oil boom as a result of a prolonged Gulf War, that might affect NAFTA, illegal immigration, etc. issues in the 1990s.
Looking at a map of Saudi Arabia, the Yemeni blockade of the Red Sea will keep units from coming down the Suez from turning the corner of Arabia without a fight, but as far as bringing troops and supplies, all they really need to do is come through the Suez Canal and go to Jeddah. The Yemeni action might not nearly be as effective as I initially thought.
Of course, getting carrier battle groups into the Persian Gulf itself will require forcing the Red Sea, but couldn't they operate against Iraq from the eastern Mediterranean?
(Syria might allow overflights and Jordan if they decide to ally with the West rather than go for the Hejaz. And if Jordan joins Saddam, there'll be aerial attacks on them.)
However, the months of preparation may have seen a few shipments of Silkworms and Exocets make their way from Iraq...
Regarding the USSR, it's on its way out, but you might want to consider the possibility of people like Yeltsin never coming to power, or having the transition from Union to no Union be somewhat smoother. Without Russia's declaration of independence, some of the former SSRs might be retained.
Offering to negotiate could be a PR thing to look like a peacemaker while extending the negotiation period as long as possible, thus keeping oil prices high.
The New Union Treaty?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_Sovereign_States
Some of the board's Soviet-philes make a good case that this was a better alternative to OTL's collapse of the USSR, especially for, say, Central Asia.
If the coup is butterflied away because Gorbachev has brought lots of money into the USSR by prolonging "negotiations" and keeping the crisis going to keep oil prices up, this might actually work.
What about Gaddafi mobilizing on the Egyptian border without actually doing anything else, just to prevent the Egyptians from sending units east ?
The Omanis also have a few scores to settle from ~30 years previously (Dhofar, etc.), so would probably be more than happy to do the Yemeni government a bad turn...Given that Oman is very pro-British and that the SAS train there, it wouldn't be too much for SAS patrols to sneak across the border to direct the laser-guided bombs on Yemeni airbases. Nice practice for the big show to come in Saudi and Iraq...
The Omanis also have a few scores to settle from ~30 years previously (Dhofar, etc.), so would probably be more than happy to do the Yemeni government a bad turn...
Doesn't this depend on which way the forces are coming from? Those from the Med, Europe or the Atlantic are going to be restricted but forces from units in the Pacific can go directly to the Gulf. True the bulk of the heavy ground units will be affected by this as they will probably come from the west. However should be able to get naval support fairly quickly via the Pacific.
Also I think the main ground units fighting the Yemeni are likely to be from Arab/Muslim nations, simply because they must operate near to the holy cities. This is related to the importance of getting Egypt and possibly other such nations on side ASAP.
The problem of course is that if Jordan does join Saddam then any fighting is going to be adjacent to Israel and very likely to overflow into conflict with Israel. If nothing else Saddam might well try and drag Israel into it as in OTL Gulf War to poison western-Arab relations. Its far more likely to be possible if Jordan is an ally, even if as is likely Jordan desperately wants to avoid this. This could be a reason for Jordan to avoid Saddam like the plague because even if Saddam 'wins' Jordan itself is likely to be creamed and its current government and establishment to lose power.
Steve
Regarding the USSR, it's on its way out, but you might want to consider the possibility of people like Yeltsin never coming to power, or having the transition from Union to no Union be somewhat smoother. Without Russia's declaration of independence, some of the former SSRs might be retained.
The New Union Treaty?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_of_Sovereign_States
Some of the board's Soviet-philes make a good case that this was a better alternative to OTL's collapse of the USSR, especially for, say, Central Asia.
If the coup is butterflied away because Gorbachev has brought lots of money into the USSR by prolonging "negotiations" and keeping the crisis going to keep oil prices up, this might actually work.
He wouldnt even need to do that, given Saddam's implusive hubris & the build up time for NATO forces & the fact Saddam would burn the oil-wells rather than lose them.
Right, Saddam is more than happy to burn down the toy store if he can't get his shiny new bike.
I go by the rule that anything would've been better than Yeltsin, or at least more sober whilst making policy.
As for the new New Union Treaty that was as much a referendum on Gorbachev’s leadership as anything else. Improved standing for Gorby could butterfly that need, though the Baltic States and Caucasus would still be a major headache.
Essentially he’d be ''pulling a Putin’’ insofar as the Russian/Soviet economy is stabilised by high-energy prices in 1990 rather than 2000, before the collapse of Russian GDP & the Union itself.
It'd only delay them for about as long as it takes for the Egyptian government & top-brass to stop laughing. The Libyan military had gotten it’s arse handed to it by Chad remember.
What about Gaddafi mobilizing on the Egyptian border without actually doing anything else, just to prevent the Egyptians from sending units east ?
Yemen is in a tricky place at this time. North and South only reunited in 1990 and there must be some political fallout from this, although starting a war is generally regarded as good for uniting a country.
They are likely to be the first country to be attacked by the US / Coalition and they can't hold out for long. To clear the sealanes they will want total freedom in the air and pre-emptive attacks on the enemy bases will clear the skies. Recon flights and airstrikes from Diego Garcia will be the first order to deny use of Yemen airbases and to destroy the small Yemeni Air Force as well as any units Iraq may have sent to help in the Straits blockage plan. Yemen's navy will be gone quickly too, probably with help from Delta Force and the USMC in the ports.
The US Navy will also be launching the first carrier raids in this war on Yemen, they may even be closer and more ready to attack than main forces on Diego Garcia or other land bases.
Given that Oman is very pro-British and that the SAS train there, it wouldn't be too much for SAS patrols to sneak across the border to direct the laser-guided bombs on Yemeni airbases. Nice practice for the big show to come in Saudi and Iraq...
What are Turkey doing in all this? Are they with the US or leaning towards the Muslim states?
The Omanis also have a few scores to settle from ~30 years previously (Dhofar, etc.), so would probably be more than happy to do the Yemeni government a bad turn...
If Yemen is jumping on the Saudis' back over Asir, that works too.
Everyone is wanting a piece of their neighbors right now, and old (and some not so old) grudges are getting called out into the open again.
If Saddam took Mecca and based his military HQ there, it would be unbombable by Western forces because if the religious implications.
Here's an idea re: the USSR:
The increased oil money from the prolonged Gulf crisis is used to fund a gradual transition from state socialism instead of the "shock therapy" that in Russia at least caused so much havoc.
Even if the USSR crumbles per OTL, there might be some positive butterflies in that quarter from the situation.
I guess going the Cape route is not an option/would take too long/would excessively strain logistics?
If Saddam took Mecca and based his military HQ there, it would be unbombable by Western forces because of the religious implications.
King Thomas
If Saddam got that far he would be doing bloody amazing. However the allies then simply cut the supply lines across hundreds of miles of desert between that HQ and his resource bases in Iraq.
Steve
Hopefully (for him and for his soldiers) Saddam wouldn't be stupid enough to order a cross-desert march against Mecca, especially since the real prizes are in the Eastern Province and that's where the war with the U.S. will be fought. Leaving Mecca to the rump al-Sauds or the Jordanians would be the smart thing to do.
Of course, just because something is stupid doesn't mean Saddam won't do it.
With the wider war, Senator Sam Nunn will probably vote for intervention. From what I read, his voting against it IOTL is one of the reasons he didn't run for president in 1992. With the larger crisis, someone with foreign policy credentials would probably have an edge in the Democratic primaries.