Lines in the Sand: A History of the Gulf War

Bump! Don't let this die, Neo!

It isn't dying he said in the last update he was moving at the end of October so thats what is probably cutting into his time.

Right you are, LitS is hardly dead if I can help it but sadly is on the back burner for a bit longer. Comps exams are this Friday and moving day comes in 2 weeks, but I do have the first section of the next update written out thus far. The support and burning desire to know what happens next is always appreciated though, thankee!

Awesome, just awesome. Loving every word! :D

Thank you kindly, good sir! The feeling is quite mutual in regards to GitD as I'm very interested to see what Iraqi logistics can accomplish before August is finished. Looks like we both have the same problem of academics sucking up most of our writing time, hopefully not for much longer though.
 

Gian

Banned
Just read this from top to bottom. This is one of the greatest things I have ever read.:D

And it's a good thing my dad is safe under Prince Mansour's control (He was working in Jeddah at the time).
 
Update to the map. Wanted to do more, but don't have the time today. Next update I hope to include the airbases, naval bases, army bases and Saudi national guard bases.

This update includes labelling of towns containing oil refineries (solid underline) and oil tanker terminals (dotted underline). Water desalination plants are indicated by a yellow asterisk (whether beside a labelled town or seemingly beside an unlabelled area, as can be seen in Ash Shuqaiq in the south near Abha). Water pipelines (the major ones that can be shown anyway) are indicated as solid yellow lines being somewhat transparent (much like the oil pipelines).

EDIT: Going back through these two sources posted earlier in the thread, it would seem that not only Riyadh but Buraydah and Ha'il rely to some extent on desalinated water from Al Jubail and Khobar. The capture of Riyadh should make it possible for Saddam to turn the water back on through pipelines from Al Jubail at least unless he intends to scatter the Riyadhi population (I do remember NeoDesperado referring to the "Exodus of Riyadh" earlier in the thread...) to keep the Coalition off balance while he attempts to conquer the area between Riyadh and Ad Dammam before turning the water back on and handing over the conquered area to Nayef...

arabia relief map edited with oil cities railways roads bases desalination incomplete jpeg with .jpg
 
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Hey everyone, quick update. Still haven't forgotten about you all or this TL, just still in the process of dealing with life stuff from October. Think I did okay with exams (should know my results by this weekend), though there's still one last project in an indexing class to deal with in the meantime.

A week later and we're *still* moving stuff out of the old house. The landlords were kind enough to give us some extra time to sort through everything, which is fine by me because it's frankly astounding just how much random crap one can accumulate in 4 1/2 years at one place. Most of the major stuff is moved though, and now it's more of a matter of sorting through what stays and what goes into storage.

But that's not really why you're reading this, is it? ;) This isn't a blog about my personal life, it's a TL that at least a few people want to see the next chapter of, seeing as how we're currently on a bit of a cliffhanger. Like I said earlier, a book indexing project is sucking up most of my free time for the near future, but I do have the first part of the next update finished and just need to write up the new Mother of all Battles chapter before we're ready to roll again. Barring any unforeseen problems, let's tentatively schedule an update for this weekend. I figure that's quite doable.

As always, thank you all for reading and your comments and contributions. It wouldn't be nearly as good (or as fun) without your help along the way.

Were you thinking of putting Lines in the Sand in your signature?

I'd support that.

You know, I keep meaning to do that...

Just read this from top to bottom. This is one of the greatest things I have ever read.:D

And it's a good thing my dad is safe under Prince Mansour's control (He was working in Jeddah at the time).

Thank you! Always glad to see a new reader discover this TL. As for your dad, here's hoping that he was on one of the first boats/planes out of the country after March 3.

Update to the map. Wanted to do more, but don't have the time today. Next update I hope to include the airbases, naval bases, army bases and Saudi national guard bases.

This update includes labelling of towns containing oil refineries (solid underline) and oil tanker terminals (dotted underline). Water desalination plants are indicated by a yellow asterisk (whether beside a labelled town or seemingly beside an unlabelled area, as can be seen in Ash Shuqaiq in the south near Abha). Water pipelines (the major ones that can be shown anyway) are indicated as solid yellow lines being somewhat transparent (much like the oil pipelines).

EDIT: Going back through these two sources posted earlier in the thread, it would seem that not only Riyadh but Buraydah and Ha'il rely to some extent on desalinated water from Al Jubail and Khobar. The capture of Riyadh should make it possible for Saddam to turn the water back on through pipelines from Al Jubail at least unless he intends to scatter the Riyadhi population (I do remember NeoDesperado referring to the "Exodus of Riyadh" earlier in the thread...) to keep the Coalition off balance while he attempts to conquer the area between Riyadh and Ad Dammam before turning the water back on and handing over the conquered area to Nayef...

This just keeps looking better and better Chris, fantastic work! :D:D


I know it's been mentioned earlier, but if anyone else wants to try their hand at maps for the TL (situation maps, unit deployments, etc.) I'll gladly welcome your assistance and contributions. My graphic design experience sadly doesn't go much further than half-remembered Photoshop lessons from a class going on a decade ago, so my options are somewhat limited. :(
 
...And we are back in business folks! :D Many, many thanks for your patience while I got things sorted out in the real world, and hope that you enjoy the latest installment in this mess of a conflict.

Lines in the Sand: A History of the Gulf War


XVI


“People of the United States, your President Bush has placed you on the wrong side of history. It is not too late to reverse his folly. I urge you to spare your fathers and sons from needless suffering and hardship.” – Saddam Hussein

“I don’t care if Saddam has troops marching through two or twelve countries. The smug bastard is going to get his when the hammer comes down and the more he spreads his forces out the better.” - Norman Schwarzkopf


Transcript for Saturday Night Live sketch aired April 13, 1991
Season 16, Episode 17 / Host: Catherine O’Hara / Musical Guest: R.E.M.

*Scene opens on the Oval Office, with Dana Carvey portraying George H. W. Bush sitting behind the desk, a serious expression on his face*

Dana Carvey – Mah fellow Americans. I speak to you tonight on a matter of grave importance. That tyronneous villain Saddam Hussein has conquered yet another peace-loving country and in the process made me right peeved. I want you to know that myself and Danny Quayle are doing everything in our power to ensure that this never happens again. I know that we said the exact same thing the last time Saddam did this, but this time we mean it. No more monkey business, play time is over. Read my lips: no more countries conquered on my watch. No sir, not gonna happen. In fact-

*Phone on desk rings, DC picks it up*

DC – Hello? Why yes, this is the President, that’s me…he did what? Now just hold on a minute here, you’re telling me that Iraq just conquered another five countries? Maybe you don’t understand, I just did the ‘read my lips’ thing and told him not to do that. Well, that makes me quite the fool, doesn’t it? Dang nab it, I thought we were putting a stop to this nonsense. Well…okay, thank you for calling.

*Hangs up phone*

DC – Well then, doesn’t that just beat all…hello again, America. It seems I spoke just a tad too hastily earlier concerning the whole ‘stop taking over countries’ thing. Iraq seems to have just conquered the remainder of the Middle East. Sure, that’s a bit of a setback, but rest assured, the situation is under control. And to all those nay-sayers out there who are calling the war in Saudi Arabia another Vietnam, they couldn’t be further from the truth. For one thing, a desert is the complete opposite of a jungle and I’m told they don’t actually speak Vietnamese in Baghdad.

*Phone rings again*

DC – Hello? Oh, it’s you again. Yes, this is still the President. Oh dear…he did what now? Oh dear me…
Folks, I’ve just been informed that Iraqi troops have just conquered the nation of Vietnam and added it to their holdings. So, from a technical standpoint, it would appear that Saudi Arabia and Vietnam are now in fact the same thing, seeing as they’re now both part of the Greater Iraqi Empire. That’s a bit of a hum-doodle, no two ways about it. That Saddam’s really gotten my goat now, and I’m not gonna stand for it. Not gonna do it, no how, no sir. Colin? Hey Colin, what are we doing about this?

*Enter Tim Meadows dressed as General Colin Powell*

Tim Meadows – Well, Mr. President, the situation on the ground is-

DC – Colin, don’t be rude, say hello to the nice people of America.

*TM pauses, then turns to wave awkwardly at the camera*

TM – Uhm…hello…America. Listen, Mr. President, about the Iraqis-

DC – You betcha! Iraq! Buncha cattle rustlers that need to be taught a lesson! Heck, I’m a generous fellow, England and France can even take a shot at him, no need to let us have all the fun!

*Phone rings, DC answers, TM leans down to listen in*

DC – Hello? Oh it’s just you again, now what? …Oh for…of all the blasted…yes, thank you for calling.

*DC sets phone down, stares vacantly for a moment then slams his fists onto the desk*

DC – DANG NAB IT!!

*DC notices the camera again and straightens his tie*

DC – Uhmm…ah heh…hi, folks. Our little alliance with England and France has run into the teensy little itty bitty problem of Iraqtakingthemoverjustnow. Uh…hmm. Colin, who does that leave us with?

*TM consults a clipboard for several seconds*

TM – I think that just leaves us, Mr. President. Europe’s gone, Australia’s gone, the Soviets are drunk and aren’t returning our calls…we did get a nice condolence card from China. It plays a song when you open it.

DC – We don’t need anyone or their stupid cards! Buncha losers anyway, see if I care! Fine, we’ll just have to kick Saddam’s keister all by our lonesome. It’s better this way, isn’t it? No backseat drivers mucking it all up. Okay, first things first, have we tried shooting at them? Would that work?

*Door to the Oval Office swings open, revealing Chris Farley dressed as Saddam Hussein, followed by several people dressed as construction workers*

TM – What’s the meaning of this?

Chris Farley – Bleah, you call this place fit for a ruler? I want all of this removed at once. Tariq, take notes. I want shag carpeting, statues of me in every room, a harem in the West Wing, and this paint job is unacceptable. Everything will be painted gold, you understand? Oh my, look who it is…my old friend President George.

DC – Now see here, you puffed up horny toad, you can’t just come in here and put up shag carpeting and dancing girls. I live here, you can’t just run around all willy nilly taking over things! There are rules!

CF – Oh George, you Americans and your wacky humor! I’m glad you’re here though, I need a new pool boy ever since I shot my last one. Tariq here will get you set up, won’t you Tariq? And you, dark man! I desire entertainment and hereby promote you to Head Dancing Boy. A very great honor indeed!

TM – Sir, I have absolutely no intention of performing any sort of dance-

CF – DANCE OR DIE!!

*TM begins awkwardly dancing*

CF – Much better! Now, where was I…oh yes, Tariq, can we change all of the signs from White House to ‘Saddam’s Pleasure Palace Number 347’? It has a much better ring- Pool Boy! Why are you still here? There are pools to clean! Many of them! Go now!

*DC gets escorted offstage looking dejected and holding a cleaning net, CF notices the camera*

CF – How long has that been there?! I have been on camera this entire time period? Why did no one tell me this? Now everyone has probably been looking at my bad side! Tariq! Executions for everyone, including yourself! Gather a firing squad and then report outside to be shot. Head Dancing Boy, shut off that camera at once!

*TM fumbles with lens, screen changes to the Iraqi flag overlaid with a sad face and ‘WE ARE HAVING TECHNICAL PROBLEMS THANK YOU’ with stereotypical Middle Eastern music playing*



Excerpt from Mother of All Battles: A New History of the Arabian War
By Simon Anderson Naval Institute Press 1995

Fractures
While the potential loss of Riyadh had been planned for by CENTCOM and evacuations of allied personnel and sensitive documents had been underway even before April 7, the fall of a second capital of a sovereign nation to Iraqi forces in less than two months still shocked the world community. In a matter of weeks the armies of Iraq had secured territory far exceeding that of 8 years of bloodied and grinding conflict with Iran. Economically, the price of oil shot up another $5 US on April 12 despite a recent slight decrease thanks to several new pending deals for the Soviet Union to sell oil to the West. While the United States had been less than pleased at the prospect of the Russians gaining lucrative additions to their coffers, for the moment the industrialized nations (particularly Japan) cared little for the source of their oil so long as the taps stayed on. In any case, the United States had far more reason to protest the April 12 announcement from Iraq that it had agreed to release all Soviet citizens and military advisors in exchange for Soviet promises to ‘look more closely at the Iraqi peace proposal’. Though in private Gorbachev would assure allied leaders (among them an incensed President Bush) that these promises did not constitute a shift in the USSR’s disapproval of Iraqi/Yemeni actions, the separate deal to secure their people was a significant blow to thawing Western-Soviet relations.

Among foreign observers, opinions concerning the unexpected Iraqi successes generally fell into two camps of thought; those that felt the events since March 1 proved the might of the Iraqi war machine, and those who believed that the Iraqi victories were simply a case of waging battles against heavily outnumbered and/or undertrained opponents. While there was strong evidence pointing to the validity of the second theory, especially in the wake of the latest reverses suffered by the Republican Guard along the coastal front, the media tended to opt for the theory of Iraqi invincibility in their reports. This was in part the result of CENTCOM’s refusal to allow reporters anywhere near the battle zone and providing information only through carefully arranged press conferences. For journalists being told of allied military successes around Buqayq (an insignificant town few could even locate) when the Saudi capital was flying the Iraqi flag, there was a marked suspicion of allied claims that things would soon swing in their favor. Iraqi propaganda was quick to take advantage of this uncertainty, to the point where the Sunday April 14 edition of the New York Times devoted a front page spread to an article covering the fall of Riyadh from a ‘trusted inside source’ and published a map depicting ‘future Iraqi military options’. The map in question was an absolute farce to anyone familiar with Iraqi military logistics, showing large red arrows representing Republican Guard columns sweeping across the entire Arabian peninsula and proposed new borders dividing up Arabia between Iraq and Yemen. The trusted insider was later shown to be an Iraqi plant who had deliberately played up the Republican Guard’s capabilities (claiming, for example, that there were no less than 5 Iraqi divisions occupying Riyadh) and an apology and retraction were printed later in the week after several allied military sources came forward to dispute the article.

This prevailing myth of Iraqi strength, while far from accurate, nonetheless found a willing audience who felt the United States was blundering its way through the conflict and had no real idea how to handle the situation. In their defense, it must be noted that CENTCOM faced an extraordinarily difficult situation on the ground during the early weeks of the conflict. With their expected base of support in a state of civil war and military threats operating along multiple axes, General Schwarzkopf was forced to make hard decisions on how to best employ his limited assets in response. Ultimately, the Iraqi force on the coast posed the greatest strategic threat to the allied position and had to be held in check, leaving the defense of Riyadh as a secondary concern to planning. It was a matter of choosing the least odious option, and while the decision to concentrate on the coastal front for the time being was the correct choice, it had lasting consequences both for the alliance and the world at large.

The actual situation within Riyadh leading up to and during its capture was chaos bordering on anarchy. While the majority of American military assets in the capital had been relocated to Qatar well before April 11 (including the precious Patriot batteries pulled in spite of protest), there was still the matter of the U.S. embassy and it staff. Even as Iraqi tanks were entering the northern outskirts of Riyadh, helicopters were frantically shuttling personnel and U.S. citizens from the embassy grounds south to Al Kharj Air Base before placing them on transports bound for Qatar and the UAE. Al Kharj was itself undergoing evacuation procedures in light of the looming threat from Republican Guard forces now 40 miles to its exposed north. Augmented by several ground convoys, the embassy officially closed its doors as the first Iraqi tanks were breaking through at Al Qirawan shortly before nightfall. The evacuation itself proceeded in an acceptable manner despite several instances of transport helicopters taking small arms fire and in one extreme case was targeted by an RPG that thankfully missed. The ground convoys, comprised of groups of buses escorted by Humvees, were subjected to hurled debris from gathered crowds as they left the city, most of which were scattered with tear gas and warning shots. Some hours later, a small Iraqi force would storm the abandoned embassy grounds and hang their flag from the main compound’s roof, leading to more propaganda photographs that were seized on by Saddam as further proof of Iraqi invincibility against the hapless Americans.

For the Sultan government, the evacuation from Riyadh was much more haphazard than the pullout of the Western embassies. Prince Sultan and most of his advisors had secretly fled the capital after the Republican Guard captured Al Maajmah but continued to release televised statements in the following days to give the illusion of still being in the city. In trying to keep the already embattled capital from falling apart completely, Sultan government statements made no mention of the Iraqi advance on Riyadh, though unofficially word had already reached many of the reverses in the north. While provisions were taken to ensure that other (pro-Sultan) high ranking members of the Al Saud family were able to escape Saddam’s grasp, lesser members of the royal family were forced to flee by any means they could secure, paying exorbitant prices for a chance to fly out on the last few flights from Abdul Aziz Airport. Sadly, the Al Sauds placed much higher importance on securing the contents of their palaces than destroying military supplies and government documents, allowing many of these to fall into the Republican Guard’s possession when their tanks rolled in. It was a huge intelligence coup for the Iraqis, giving them the names and locations of thousands of Saudi government officials and, more importantly, Saudi secret police and operatives. Those unfortunate enough to be trapped in Riyadh after April 11 were swiftly tracked down and rounded up by the Republican Guard, with most getting shipped back to Iraq for further interrogation.

After reaching a fever pitch of activity on April 11 as citizens fled south from Riyadh, the situation after the Iraqis took over become one of Republican guard units standing idly by while pro-Nayef forces in the city attacked pro-Sultan areas. The cease-fire between Iraq and the Nayef regime thus far hadn’t translated to open support and assistance in military operations, but the Iraqi military seemed content to let the Saudi factions fight amongst themselves while they tended to their own pressing concerns. Foremost among these were the pointed directives from Baghdad for the 2nd Armored and 4th Mechanized Divisions to continue their advance against Sultan and American positions at the earliest opportunity. The simple truth of the matter was that the advance on Riyadh had badly overextended Iraqi supply lines and it had been a minor miracle that they had been able to push this far south to begin with. With an exposed logistics train running north along the single highway through Hafar al Batin and into occupied Kuwait, even a move against Al Kharj was only somewhat less impossible than a drive along Highway 40 to assist the coastal offensive. Whatever the urgings of their political officers, the 2nd and 4th Divisions were fully committed to maintaining control over their sectors of a rapidly disintegrating city. While pro-Nayef forces were generally consistent in steering clear of confrontations with the Republican Guard within the city, an atmosphere of lawlessness was descending over the Saudi capital as clashes between mobs and street gangs armed from looted government stores increased in both frequency and intensity. By April 15, the Iraqi occupation of Riyadh extended only to certain government structures (centered on the royal palace), the airport, and the main avenues within the city. Eager to avoid getting caught in the crossfire, most of the Iraqis had fortified themselves in the local Army and National Guard bases.

Realizing that their situation was untenable beyond the short term and after prolonged discussion with Baghdad, on April 17 the commander of the 2nd Armored sent out overtures to the head of the Nayef government’s Riyadh branch for a potential turnover of the capital to their forces as a goodwill gesture from Saddam Hussein to Prince Nayef. Not only would the turnover free up the 2nd and 4th for operations elsewhere, but it would strengthen ties between Iraq and a dominant faction of the warring Saudi princes that was becoming increasingly dependent upon Saddam as its primary backer. More importantly, it would be one further nail in the coffins of Prince Sultan and Prince Mansour as the Nayef regime gained one further measure of legitimacy as the rightful King of Saudi Arabia. Understandably, the Nayef government readily accepted the proposal and by April 19 the first column of New Ihkwan vehicles was entering Riyadh to assume control. In a formal ceremony on the antechamber of the royal palace (the very same room that King Fahd had approved the deployment of American soldiers into the country some weeks before), the Republican Guard officially turned over control of the city to Prince Nayef and the New Ihkwan. Though the Iraqis would continue to base two brigades in the area to ostensibly support the Nayef government and protect it from ‘terrorist and pro-imperialist elements’, Riyadh saw its third government within the span of a month take control. Prince Nayef himself would not move into the royal palace until April 22, well after the New Ihkwan had finished securing control of the local facilities and driven the remaining pro-Sultan opposition to ground.

Outside of Riyadh, the loss of the capital had greatly damaged Prince Sultan’s remaining prestige as multiple units and areas abruptly switched allegiances following April 11. In the Asir, the large pro-Sultan area based around Bishah threw their support behind Prince Mansour after fearing for their fates at the hands of Nayef’s New Ihkwan. Elsewhere, the northern town of Arar surrendered to besieging New Ihkwan units in exchange for promises of leniency for the local populace. While the New Ihkwan would initially respect these promises, the defending militia were rounded up and sent into the interior to join other captured Saudis in several camps sprouting up across the central provinces. Cut off after the fall of Riyadh, the towns of Al Duwadimi and Shaqra fell to New Ihkwan assaults on April 16 and by the time of the turnover on April 19 the whole of the Ar Riyad province (with the exception of Al Kharj) had fallen under Prince Nayef’s control.

By April 20 the only area of Saudi Arabia that Prince Sultan could still claim ownership of was that controlled by the United States military, constituting a narrow strip of land stretching from holdouts at Al Kharj east along Highway 10 to the border with Qatar and bulging to the north as far as Judah and Buqayq. With his few remaining loyal commanders operating from new facilities in Al Hofuf, Prince Sultan found himself in much the same position as the Al-Sabahs of Kuwait; completely dependent upon the actions of the West to restore him to the throne. There was one increasingly glaring difference between the two in that while Arab leaders were in agreement over placing the Emir back in control of Kuwait, there was a growing split among Middle Eastern leaders over who to back in the Saudi civil war. Though officially the alliance was still united and dedicated to seeing Saudi Arabia and Kuwait liberated, away from the cameras things were far from ideal. What began more as a matter of location and convenience in helping Prince Mansour secure the western provinces of Saudi Arabia had steadily grown into an Arabian Faction of the alliance spearheaded by Egypt and Syria. Recent weeks had shown the Sultan government to be little more than a proxy of the West and requiring extensive American military support to keep what small bit of territory it had left. With Prince Nayef’s territory serving as a border through central Saudi Arabia, to the east the Gulf states were aligning themselves with the United States’ Western Faction as it was the only thing currently holding the Iraqis at bay, while to the west the Arabian Faction was gaining support among the African states, particularly Morocco and Niger. This division within the alliance over who should become the next ruler of Saudi Arabia was kept secret from the general public and it would be some time before it would begin to interfere directly with allied military activities.

Difficulties and disputes were hardly confined to the allies, as the Iraqis found themselves hopelessly stalled in the advance and unable to make any further progress in the face of American firepower around Buqayq. Making matters worse, April 14 saw the arrival of the first units of the 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment after its speedy activation and transfer from Germany, bringing CENTCOM one step closer to its desired defensive levels. Though the coastal supply lines were somewhat better protected against air interdiction (despite increasing occurrences of strikes against supply depots by American F-117 stealth fighters), there was only so much that Iraqi logistics could do and by April 15 Saddam had grudgingly approved another halt to allow the exhausted Republican Guard to dig in. Excused as ‘temporary consolidation before the final campaign against the imperialists’, the order gave local Republican Guard commanders some measure of cover for a push had been effectively halted well before that point. Needing a handy scapegoat to explain the recent lack of progress along the coast and the failure to destroy the American enclave, the Republican Guard declared that it had been the victim of Shiite saboteurs and Western agents operating in the Dhahran area. It was an idea that readily appealed to Saddam, who by this stage in the conflict was buying more and more into his own propaganda of Iraqi invincibility against the West. By April 20 hundreds of Shiites had been rounded up in Dhahran on fabricated charges of sabotage against the Iraqi state; most were executed by firing squad in back alleys or simply disappeared. These saboteur sweeps backfired badly on the Iraqis as it led to the formation of an actual Shiite-dominated underground network in Dhahran sympathetic to the allies. For a religious group that had seen decades of persecution and repression from the Saud regime, it realized that its chances under Prince Sultan and the Americans were far more enviable to life under Saddam Hussein’s regime. In an even more interesting development, the Iraqi crackdown on Shiites in Dhahran received criticism from an unexpected corner; that of its ally Yemen. While Yemeni protest was limited to a strongly worded statement from President Saleh, it was the first crack in the Iraqi/Yemeni alliance.
 
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Money

As I remember, the Saudi's had lots of money in financial investments, real estate and other items across the West. Now with the old government gone and the new one still shaky, who is going take ownership? What will the west do if it is in less than unfriendly hands?
 
I would imagine that Saudi money held in the West is either frozen, or the only one who has access to it is Prince Sultan.

Nice update, btw. The buildup is proceeding, and soon, CENTCOM comes down on the Iraqis like a Mountain Lion on a goat.
 
Perhaps this could lead to a Shi'a uprising in South Iraq?
Would this mean Iran aiding the Coalition? Could Special Forces be airdropped into the north of Iraq to aid the Kurds in attacks?
 
This is shaping up to be amazing! The Iraqi's are about to get smacked hard and the US will be steamrolling them to Baghdad (I hope).

Now what happens after that in this lovely little political snafu on the other hand...is going to be far less pleasant ;)
 
This is shaping up nicely, I especially like the snip about the USSR's oil, that will provide many changes to the looming crisis in the Comintern, now the USSR can use the hard cash to slowy try to dragg itself out of the crisis. So will we see the USSR surviving in some form? Like the New Union or something?
 
This is shaping up nicely, I especially like the snip about the USSR's oil, that will provide many changes to the looming crisis in the Comintern, now the USSR can use the hard cash to slowy try to dragg itself out of the crisis. So will we see the USSR surviving in some form? Like the New Union or something?

From what I've learned here, the proposed New Union would have been better than OTL's mess. The USSR as basically super-Sweden. :D

With the increased oil revenues and covert assistance to Iraq as a bone to throw to the hard-liners, Gorbachev might be able to avoid OTL's coup that caused the whole thing to implode.
 
Here's an idea:

If Prince Sultan still has all the overseas money, maybe he uses it to hire lots and lots of mercenaries? Maybe South Africa allows its veterans to serve abroad in hopes of buying some good PR for the apartheid regime and hopefully some sweet deals on oil, mineral purchases, etc.

(Given the references to the assassination of Mandela and a South African Civil War, this could have some effects down the line.)

They might not be especially effective or reliable, but there's a lot of overseas money and he doesn't really have a whole lot to lose. Plus if he focuses on Prince Nayef instead of the still-fearsome Iraqis, the mercs might be less likely to run away.

And if Saddam's plan is to leave Riyadh to Nayef while he recalls the "Hail Mary"* forces to fight the Americans around Dhahran, having Nayef suddenly getting attacked could throw a spanner in the works.

*Ironically OTL's "Hail Mary" was the Allied attack on the Iraqis from the west. In TTL, it'll be the Iraqi seizure of Riyadh.
 
Wow—this continues to be one of the most interesting and creative timelines out there. Keep it up!

Thank you kindly, just glad that it's continuing to be a (darkly) fun TL for you all to read!

This may indeed be the end of the beginning for Saddam's attack.

Logistics were never one of the Iraqis' strong points, and ITTL they're really spread out over a lot of territory. Saddam's best chance for defeating the Americans would have been encircling Dhahran and trapping most of the ground forces inside, but CENTCOM opted to not play along with that idea.

As I remember, the Saudi's had lots of money in financial investments, real estate and other items across the West. Now with the old government gone and the new one still shaky, who is going take ownership? What will the west do if it is in less than unfriendly hands?

I would imagine that Saudi money held in the West is either frozen, or the only one who has access to it is Prince Sultan.

Nice update, btw. The buildup is proceeding, and soon, CENTCOM comes down on the Iraqis like a Mountain Lion on a goat.

I'll have to defer to members much more versed in these things (Saudi economics aren't quite my forte) but I'd imagine it's something like what Matt said in that a lot of stuff is frozen, especially accounts and holdings associated with Nayef's people. Once the war's over however, we can expect a lawyer's wet dream of decades of legal battles over the particulars of ownership. It'll make the diplomatic situation seem transparently simple by comparison.

Perhaps this could lead to a Shi'a uprising in South Iraq?
Would this mean Iran aiding the Coalition? Could Special Forces be airdropped into the north of Iraq to aid the Kurds in attacks?

It's a bit early for a Shiite rebellion, but the seeds for a revolt were in place before the Arabian War and this latest blunder has given them another very good reason to try for a change in management. I don't know if I'd go as far as Iran aiding the allies beyond some sympathetic noises; memories of the US Navy openly assisting Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War are still fresh and even if they're rolling back Saddam a successful campaign will just put an uncaring or repressive Al Saud back on the throne.

As for assistance to the Kurds, let's call that a distinct possibility.

This is shaping up to be amazing! The Iraqi's are about to get smacked hard and the US will be steamrolling them to Baghdad (I hope).

Now what happens after that in this lovely little political snafu on the other hand...is going to be far less pleasant ;)

The allies are still a ways out from being able to do anything more than conduct local small scale offensive operations. The last few weeks have mussed up their timetables somewhat as they start to build up supply bases in Qatar and around Al Hofuf, but as mentioned before they thankfully didn't lose all that much since the Iraqi attack came in before they really had a chance to establish depots in the region. That said, the nature of this war is forcing a necessary speeding up in the deployment and supply effort, so any large-scale offensive action on the allies' part will be well before the 6-month mark OTL.

And as you said, this is the easy part. Once the guns fall silent we still have to figure out how to sort this mess.

This is shaping up nicely, I especially like the snip about the USSR's oil, that will provide many changes to the looming crisis in the Comintern, now the USSR can use the hard cash to slowy try to dragg itself out of the crisis. So will we see the USSR surviving in some form? Like the New Union or something?

From what I've learned here, the proposed New Union would have been better than OTL's mess. The USSR as basically super-Sweden. :D

With the increased oil revenues and covert assistance to Iraq as a bone to throw to the hard-liners, Gorbachev might be able to avoid OTL's coup that caused the whole thing to implode.

The Soviet Union is already getting hit by butterflies from this conflict and 1991 will be a very different year for them as a result. Oil revenues from a suddenly quite lucrative market will greatly help the Politburo stumble along a bit longer, but the matter of military aid to Iraq is a case of the right hand not knowing what the left is doing. Assisting Saddam may be anathema to Gorbachev, but for the hardliners it's a godsend to tweak the Americans for their meddling in Afghanistan. It's an incredibly risky move that Gorbachev and part of his government are oblivious to, but if those Soviet weapons can keep the war going even a little bit longer (and keep those prices up) then it's a win for Mother Russia.

Here's an idea:

If Prince Sultan still has all the overseas money, maybe he uses it to hire lots and lots of mercenaries? Maybe South Africa allows its veterans to serve abroad in hopes of buying some good PR for the apartheid regime and hopefully some sweet deals on oil, mineral purchases, etc.

(Given the references to the assassination of Mandela and a South African Civil War, this could have some effects down the line.)

They might not be especially effective or reliable, but there's a lot of overseas money and he doesn't really have a whole lot to lose. Plus if he focuses on Prince Nayef instead of the still-fearsome Iraqis, the mercs might be less likely to run away.

And if Saddam's plan is to leave Riyadh to Nayef while he recalls the "Hail Mary"* forces to fight the Americans around Dhahran, having Nayef suddenly getting attacked could throw a spanner in the works.

*Ironically OTL's "Hail Mary" was the Allied attack on the Iraqis from the west. In TTL, it'll be the Iraqi seizure of Riyadh.

Hmmm...I really, really like the idea of Sultan hiring mercenaries to bolster what's left of his army. This force's makeup would depend upon how desperate his is (by this point, very), but they'd be a good choice to take on Nayef's militias in areas where the United States would be too tied up elsewhere. Of course, this would only add to the image of Sultan being nothing more than a puppet of the Western infidels, but as we've seen he can't afford to be overly picky right now.
 
Hmmm...I really, really like the idea of Sultan hiring mercenaries to bolster what's left of his army. This force's makeup would depend upon how desperate his is (by this point, very), but they'd be a good choice to take on Nayef's militias in areas where the United States would be too tied up elsewhere. Of course, this would only add to the image of Sultan being nothing more than a puppet of the Western infidels, but as we've seen he can't afford to be overly picky right now.

Hmm...if you want some "big names," here's a list.

In terms of rank-and-file, you might have proto-Executive Outcomes men from South Africa and proto-Sandline people from Britain. Maybe even some overzealous devotees of Soldier of Fortune magazine might come from America.

(I can imagine Britain and the US getting miffed about their nationals fighting as mercs when their own forces are fighting Saddam.)

Mobotu Sese Seke had Bosnian Serb mercenaries fighting for him, but Yugoslavia is still intact and would probably want to keep its fighting men close to home at this point.
 
Would Sultan really want to hire South African (and thus mainly Christian) mercenaries though? Given his setbacks against the other claimants who are appealing to the conservative and religious element in Saudi Arabia far more effectively (especially Nayef) I would imagine that he would want to hire Muslim mercenaries and maybe find he has to hire South African mercenaries to train them as the Coalition is unwilling to get involved officially with mercenaries and has a lot on its plate anyway without having to train some guns-for-hire
 
Would Sultan really want to hire South African (and thus mainly Christian) mercenaries though? Given his setbacks against the other claimants who are appealing to the conservative and religious element in Saudi Arabia far more effectively (especially Nayef) I would imagine that he would want to hire Muslim mercenaries and maybe find he has to hire South African mercenaries to train them as the Coalition is unwilling to get involved officially with mercenaries and has a lot on its plate anyway without having to train some guns-for-hire

Additionally, a certain Mr. Denard is a Muslim right now.
 
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