Lines in the Sand: A History of the Gulf War

NeoDesperado,

Would you be interested in utilizing some other maps to show the situation on the ground in TTL? I've come across a number online in addition to the one you are using which might be quite useful (including these: 1, 2, 3, 4)

If any of our resident map makers might have the time they could probably mesh a few of them together...
I could give those a shot if anyone's interested.

Calm down. You are getting way too vexed over that. My point is quite simply that American media tends to dominate globally but that American media tends to be focused on the American audience. In America, the word "secession" is far more likely to be encountered in print or television media due to the Civil War than "succession" (despite there being a presidential line of succession). The Civil War is more discussed in popular media (think of the History Channel for instance) than the presidential line of succession or the War of the Austrian Succession. That's just how it is. Hence there is the potential for the more frequently used word to be confused with the less frequently encountered word. In any case we have at least one OTL example of people who one would hope knew the difference between the two words being confused about them. And in journalistic style guides they give examples of various words that can be confused (such as "militate" versus "mitigate" and "inflammable" versus "inflammatory" believe it or not; in the latter case they were quoting a real example from one of the BBC's radio stations) and warn journalists to be careful about using them. Does this make journalists or readers stupid for not being able to distinguish militate and mitigate or between inflammable and inflammatory? No. It just means that people make mistakes and that there are words in English which are more prone to being mistakenly used. The news media (newspapers and TV news) tend to try to avoid that if they can. It's that simple.
Yes, but my point is, due to the Civil War, that the United States is probably the least likely English-speaking country to conflate the two terms.

Tell me, when was the last time you saw a CNN or BBC news report or a NY Times article on say....Croatia or Bosnia in the mid 1990s which called the conflict the "Yugoslav Wars of Secession" or "Yugoslav Wars of Succession"? Both are names sometimes used for the collection of conflicts in Yugoslavia but they are rarely used in comparison to such terms as "the Yugoslav wars", "the war(s) in Yugoslavia", "the war(s) in the Balkans", "the conflict in Yugoslavia". And the "Yugoslav Wars of Succession" isn't even popularly used on AH.com where those wars are fairly well discussed.
I was unaware that the Yugoslav Wars involved different claimants to the Yugoslav throne fighting over who gets to become ruler of all of Yugoslavia.

Except for the reasons I have outlined, the media is extremely unlikely to use "War for Arabian Succession" at any point down the line. If you don't believe me, ring up any CNN or BBC journalist and ask them what terminology they are more likely to use (and be allowed to use due to time limitations) in an on-air segment; the Saudi Civil War or the War for Arabian Succession. Anyone in journalism (especially print journalism) would tell you that word limitations are a major factor in the writing of stories. I can't think of many journalists who would intentionally choose a name for a conflict that is between 26-30+ characters long ("War for the Arabian Succession" or "the War of the Arabian Succession") versus one that is under 20 characters in length ("the Saudi Civil War") even 50 years removed from the conflict (in this instance I'm thinking specifically of "the Second Thirty Years' War" to refer to the 1914-1945 conflicts; this term was first used in 1946 and then used most prominently by Winston Churchill in 1948, yet the term never caught on in the mass media which continued and continues to use "the World Wars" instead. In fact personally I can remember only coming across the term "the Second Thirty Years' War on AH.com and in some history books; never in the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, Time Magazine, Newsweek, CNN, BBC or the Economist).

You can disagree with that all you like, but that is how modern journalism works. You are about as likely to get the modern media using a lengthy name such as that as you are to have the media regularly using Shakespearean terminology.
In any case most journalistic style guides advocate using short words over longer words whenever it is possible. "Saudi civil war" is obviously shorter than "the war of the Arabian succession". Academics and authors of major books are not as restricted in their style of writing (since they aren't writing as journalists) and are more likely to use longer words to convey what they mean simply because they can.
Oh no, I don't think the media is going to call it that right away. It would only be called that if the media never properly names the war (not unlikely). The World Wars are the two most important wars in the history of mass media. The civil war in Saudi Arabia is probably rarely going to be mentioned unless as part of the greater Gulf War. Both the War for Arabian Succession and the Saudi Civil War are less likely terms to be used by the media compared to just putting the conflict as a part of the Gulf War.

Actually the two are quite comparable. Are you saying that the Iran-Iraq War didn't originate in part due to the Iranian Revolution which caused Iran to appear to be weaker and entice Saddam to invade?
Yes, that's exactly what I said.

No, you are misreading me. I have simply been pointing out why the name is highly implausible for use by the mass media (though I wholeheartedly agree it would be used by academics and amateur historians). You are the one contending otherwise (and in the process you seem to have missed out on the important fact that journalistic style means that such a name is extremely unlikely to say the least; I mentioned that before and in this post and you seemed to have left out and possibly ignored that section of my previous post in your reply). The fact that I have had to give further details as to the reason why it is highly implausible arises from that fact, not that I "vehemently" disagree with the name (I don't disagree with the name; I already said I think the name would be used by academics (i.e. in books) and by AH.com). And since NeoDesperado is not writing in the ASB section I would imagine he would be aiming for plausibility over implausibility.

But if you wish to believe that mass media (which is is what you and I have been discussing; not specialist books by academics) is going to use a lengthy name over a short name (when style guides explicitly state otherwise) then that's fine. Just don't expect me to buy it without proof.
Well, this is rather silly, since the only thing we really disagree about here is that I think it's perfectly possible the media doesn't end up naming the war. It's likely to be labelled as part of the Gulf War in the media's terms, and won't be brought up enough afterwards to warrant a proper name. Thus giving an opportunity for the War of Arabian Succession.

Okay, bit of a spirited discussion here! Both sides are raising some excellent points in regard to the title this conflict is going to walk away with, so let me chip in with my thoughts.

The larger conflict will of course end up being termed the Arabian War, but for its duration it'll simply be referred to as the rather bland 'conflict in the Middle East' by the networks. There'll be some circles that call it the Second Gulf War, but it'll be a distant second in popularity.

The confusion comes both in the TL and for us the readers in how to label the ongoing inner conflict within Saudi Arabia. History gives us decent examples in the Pacific War as a part of World War II in general or the Iraq War within the framework of the War on Terror and I think we can apply that somewhat here. Officially, I see it being termed the Saudi Arabian Civil War but often getting lumped into the Arabian War in more simplified historical discussions. Mind, right now the West is doing its best to ignore the elephant in the room and sticking to calling it 'the succession crisis' and no doubt will continue to do so for some time to come.
While I absolutely love tWotAS as a title, it's admittedly a tad outdated. :( That being said, I still definitely want to make it a part of the TL and so we can expect various books and TV documentaries to seize upon it as an evocative title and gain its own loyal following as the 90s and 00s progress. We can probably also expect the dueling titles to be an often-debated subject on TTL's AH message boards. :D
Aye, that's the most plausible solution, and I agree with all of your points.
 
I could give those a shot if anyone's interested.

That would be good. Combined with maps of the oil facilities, the water pipelines and desalination plant map earlier and any maps of various military bases it would probably be an excellent map.

Yes, but my point is, due to the Civil War, that the United States is probably the least likely English-speaking country to conflate the two terms.

I wouldn't think so. It's not like "Succession" as a political topic is a buzzword in the media.



I was unaware that the Yugoslav Wars involved different claimants to the Yugoslav throne fighting over who gets to become ruler of all of Yugoslavia.


That's one of the names of the wars according to wikipedia. And it has been used in scholarly articles like this or in various books (not on television or in newspapers)

Oh no, I don't think the media is going to call it that right away. It would only be called that if the media never properly names the war (not unlikely).

So the media is not unlikely to give an ongoing civil conflict intimately related to an ongoing inter-state conflict involving the United States a name?

Nah. Not gonna happen. The only way the media don't name it within a week of events happening is if either:

- those events didn't happen

or

- those events happened in a conflict in which the US government had zero interests at stake and in which the news media didn't have to report about on a daily basis

The World Wars are the two most important wars in the history of mass media. The civil war in Saudi Arabia is probably rarely going to be mentioned unless as part of the greater Gulf War.

What? With 3 different people claiming to be the King of the country that is among the USA's top 5 sources of imported oil? And one of them having a ceasefire with country that is fighting US forces? (that last fact alone would probably spur volumes of debate in newspapers and on television as to how the Saudi civil war would impact Coalition efforts to defeat the Iraqis) And that's going to be rarely mentioned? How? I don't think with even Soviet- or Chinese-type censorship that the media in the USA, UK and France would not be reporting on that.

After all even in the 1960s and 1970s the media reported on the various coups in South Vietnam and those were rather less sensational than a 3-way conflict over a claim to a throne in a US ally in the midst of a war in which US forces are involved.

And the media cannot mention any of the other claimants (like Mansour and Nayef) without mentioning the conflict between them and Sultan.



Yes, that's exactly what I said.


Okay, so why then did the Iran-Iraq War start? And do you have any source which could credibly claim that if there was no Iranian Revolution in which the Iranian armed forces were gutted (thousands of officers were dismissed and many thrown in jail or worse), that Saddam would have still invaded an Iran ruled by the Shah in the 1980s?


Because I would really like to read any credible history book which doesn't have the Iranian Revolution as being extremely important to the start of the Iran-Iraq War.

Well, this is rather silly, since the only thing we really disagree about here is that I think it's perfectly possible the media doesn't end up naming the war.

Actually that wasn't what you were saying before. But if that's what you think now then fine.

It's likely to be labelled as part of the Gulf War in the media's terms, and won't be brought up enough afterwards to warrant a proper name. Thus giving an opportunity for the War of Arabian Succession.

That sounds more like something that would happen in an unimportant (from the media POV) part of the world...like say...Congo. Where a Rwandan-Ugandan conflict over Kisangani in 2000 is rarely referred to and has such names as the "Kisangani war" (referred to as such in some United Nations publications) and "The Six Day War" by wikipedia and by the residents of Kisangani itself. This war happened in the wider context of the (Second) Congo War and is often not separated from it. Yet the Congo garnered very little day-to-day media interest excepting very early in the war and during the battle of Kisangani and towards the end when peace was finally agreed up.

Of course the US had zero involvement in the Congo between 1998 and 2003. No US forces on the ground; Neither Clinton nor Bush labelling Kagame and Museveni as a new Hitler and Mussolini; no threats of US intervention.

On the other hand in Iraq we saw media outlets including Time magazine, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs magazine, NBC as well as many CNN journalists (CNN had no official policy on what to term it and let the journalists do as they pleased), the BBC and the New York Times all referring to the civil war in Iraq within the context of the wider Iraq War that involved US forces and started in 2003.

In Iraq in OTL we had the media referring to a civil conflict within the context of a wider conflict involving United States forces. And this was merely a conflict involving various paramilitary groups. In TTL we have 3 people claiming to be King and various units of the Saudi armed forces choosing who to follow and with forces (including military, paramilitary and armed mobs) loyal to the rival claimants having battled each other in the Holy Cities while one of those claimants has basically taken a chunk of the Saudi armed forces out of the Coalition fight against Iraq by declaring a ceasefire. That's a pretty big deal and would be very major news. I don't see how they could possibly not refer to it and do so frequently. In fact, until there is only one claimant to the throne left it is impossible for the media to not basically have to refer to the internal Saudi conflict in every report about the wider Arabian War.


Aye, that's the most plausible solution, and I agree with all of your points.

Which is odd, since you disagreed with my points (first saying the media would call it the Arabian War of Succession when I said it was very unlikely that the media would but that it would be referred to as such in books; then later saying you thought the media would not refer to the conflict that much but instead focus on the wider Arabian War) which are some of the same points NeoDesperado wrote.
 
Anyway, I was thinking a combination of those maps could give a map like this rough one I threw together using only Paint.NET (obviously the final map would have to be much cleaner and would have to be done using Photoshop, Illustrator or some other graphics program that was better than Paint.Net):

saudi arabia iraq and oman topographic with provinces railways and oil infrastructure smaller.png
 
And this is what it would roughly look like with the roads. Granted this is rough. The roads would have to be done better and the overall size could be larger if the information could be retained (perhaps in a format other than png) without loss of colour and detail:

saudi arabia iraq and oman topographic with provinces railways oil infrastructure and roads smal.png
 
As a matter of fact, I've been mulling over the possibility of having some more in-depth maps to get a closer look at the positions and movement of the various units. If anyone has requests on something they'd like more detail on (coastal front, Yemeni occupying forces, etc) just let me know and I can get the appropriate info to someone more versed in the Photoshops than my rusty self. Thanks to Plumber and Chris S both for the assistance offers! :)
 
Oh dear, I hope the Soviet Coup doesn't work. that will make things even worse and things have become a FUBAR disturbingly quickly.

I think a possible Soviet coup, the current situation and what we know about South Africa is only going to make the future more interesting.

I wouldn't wonder if green research and technology doesn't get a massive boost, perhaps we might get that fusion reactor on time in this timeline.
 
As a matter of fact, I've been mulling over the possibility of having some more in-depth maps to get a closer look at the positions and movement of the various units. If anyone has requests on something they'd like more detail on (coastal front, Yemeni occupying forces, etc) just let me know and I can get the appropriate info to someone more versed in the Photoshops than my rusty self. Thanks to Plumber and Chris S both for the assistance offers! :)

No prob.

In fact, checking wikipedia I found some good relief maps (in JPEG format no less) which could serve as a good foundation map for the overall theatre situation (wherein one can add roads, expressways and highways, some notable minor roads, railways; oil fields, pipelines and refineries; desalination plants and water pipelines; civilian airports; towns and cities and of course military facilities). It could end up being something like this National Geographic map from February 1991. More detailed maps of southwestern and western Saudia Arabia/Yemen as well as northeastern Saudi Arabia-Kuwait-Iraq-Qatar-Bahrain could probably be very informative for visualizing the events in those two theatres.

So the combined Arabia maps would give you this:

arabia relief map jpeg.jpg
 
I think a possible Soviet coup, the current situation and what we know about South Africa is only going to make the future more interesting.

I wouldn't wonder if green research and technology doesn't get a massive boost, perhaps we might get that fusion reactor on time in this timeline.

By 1991 you're pretty much locked in to the current fusion research path. ITER was already being discussed (...slowly), NIF was going to be approved in six years anyways, and China wasn't developed enough yet to do their own thing...

In any case, other forms of renewable energy are more promising in the short run, even in 1991, and there's a good chance that once the war ends oil prices will collapse like they did in the OTL 1990s--especially if Saddam is removed and there aren't any sanctions on Iraq or attempts to control Iraq's oil production. That will pretty much kill renewable energy for a while, at least in the private sector.
 
Umm... what Mansour are we referring to? Wiki says Mansour died in 1951.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mansour_bin_Abdulaziz_Al_Saud

The Prince Mansour I decided to use apparently isn't important enough to merit his own separate Wiki page, but we can glean a few things about him from the Controversy and Personal Life sections of his father's entry:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandar_bin_Abdulaziz_Al_Saud

Relatively young, extensive business ties, flew F-15s for the Royal Air Force and was appointed commander of the Jeddah Air Base in compensation when his father Prince Bandar was passed over for the job of Second Deputy Prime Minister in 1982 (a job that went to Sultan). Bandar's branch of the family commands a fair amount of respect in the kingdom and tapping Mansour as Contender #3 seemed to be a decent fit for someone well placed in the military with a potential grudge against the Sudairi Seven and could effectively represent the outer rings of princes sidelined for decades in Saudi royal politics.
 
The Prince Mansour I decided to use apparently isn't important enough to merit his own separate Wiki page, but we can glean a few things about him from the Controversy and Personal Life sections of his father's entry:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bandar_bin_Abdulaziz_Al_Saud

Relatively young, extensive business ties, flew F-15s for the Royal Air Force and was appointed commander of the Jeddah Air Base in compensation when his father Prince Bandar was passed over for the job of Second Deputy Prime Minister in 1982 (a job that went to Sultan). Bandar's branch of the family commands a fair amount of respect in the kingdom and tapping Mansour as Contender #3 seemed to be a decent fit for someone well placed in the military with a potential grudge against the Sudairi Seven and could effectively represent the outer rings of princes sidelined for decades in Saudi royal politics.
Ah, thanx!
 
I would first like to express my great joy to have found an alternate history of such great quality, and especially that it is a realistic uchronia where Saddam's Iraq could meet several of its major objectives in 1990s and see how the tyrannical Saudi monarchy is thrown into the abyss. You did a great job, NeoDesperado.

I look forward to your update very soon your brilliant alternate history, and especially if it responds to certain questions:

  • How will develop Politburo hardliners' plans to secretly helping to Iraq and prevent American supremacy in the Persian Gulf that would ensue after the possible final defeat of Saddam?
  • Does the inability to obtain greater support to Prince Mansour in the center of the country could cause that he finally decided to lead the secession of the Hijaz region?
  • Will we know more about Prince Nayef's ultra fundamentalist policies?
  • Will we see the reaction of the Chinese, Indians and Muslim countries like Pakistan and Indonesia?
  • Is the Arabian War greatly affect Algerian Civil War that began in December 1991?
  • Could there be more clues about the postwar period in the world? For example, Hassan II of Morocco could copy the example of Iraq and decide to order the invasion of the Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla, causing a Spanish-Moroccan war that could lead to the Spanish occupation of the former Spanish protectorate over northern Morocco (whose inhabitants are mostly Rif Berbers, who in the 1940-50s expressed their intention to become independent from Morocco or even being Spanish with a large self-government during the Franco dictatorship) and Western Sahara's liberation. This line of argument could be based on the alternate history called A Spanish-Moroccan War in 2002.
  • Will we know who killed Nelson Mandela in 1995? Was an apartheid's supporter or some supporters of copying the line followed by Mugabe in Zimbabwe?
  • If Arabian War's outcome is favorable to Saddam, could he create an Arab Union based in the European Union where apparently all members were equal, but where Iraq would have the pan by the handle? That way, the pan-Arabism resurface as the days of Nasser, but without making the mistakes of the past.
 
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Ah, thanx!

Not a problem!

I would first like to express my great joy to have found an alternate history of such great quality, and especially that it is a realistic uchronia where Saddam's Iraq could meet several of its major objectives in 1990s and see how the tyrannical Saudi monarchy is thrown into the abyss. You did a great job, NeoDesperado.

I look forward to your update very soon your brilliant alternate history, and especially if it responds to certain questions:

  • How will develop Politburo hardliners' plans to secretly helping to Iraq and prevent American supremacy in the Persian Gulf that would ensue after the possible final defeat of Saddam?
  • Does the inability to obtain greater support to Prince Mansour in the center of the country could cause that he finally decided to lead the secession of the Hijaz region?
  • Will we know more about Prince Nayef's ultra fundamentalist policies?
  • Will we see the reaction of the Chinese, Indians and Muslim countries like Pakistan and Indonesia?
  • Is the Arabian War greatly affect Algerian Civil War that began in December 1991?
  • Could there be more clues about the postwar period in the world? For example, Hassan II of Morocco could copy the example of Iraq and decide to order the invasion of the Spanish cities of Ceuta and Melilla, causing a Spanish-Moroccan war that could lead to the Spanish occupation of the former Spanish protectorate over northern Morocco (whose inhabitants are mostly Rif Berbers, who in the 1940-50s expressed their intention to become independent from Morocco or even being Spanish with a large self-government during the Franco dictatorship) and Western Sahara's liberation. This line of argument could be based on the alternate history called A Spanish-Moroccan War in 2002.
  • Will we know who killed Nelson Mandela in 1995? Was an apartheid's supporter or some supporters of copying the line followed by Mugabe in Zimbabwe?
  • If Arabian War's outcome is favorable to Saddam, could he create an Arab Union based in the European Union where apparently all members were equal, but where Iraq would have the pan by the handle? That way, the pan-Arabism resurface as the days of Nasser, but without making the mistakes of the past.

Thank you very much for the kind words! I've been immensely pleased with the compliments and feedback I've received since undertaking this TL and certainly want to see this through with everyone to the end. In regard to your questions, I should be able to answer the majority of them as things progress. Given the focus of this history, we'll be spending most of our time just in the Middle East as I'd be completely out of my depth trying to figure out butterflies in Algeria and Indonesia once the dust settles in the Gulf. I'll try to address the reactions in countries to some extent though. I read through and loved the 2002 Spanish-Moroccan War TL a few months back; it's certainly not perfect but it covers territory well off the beaten path of AH and I wanted to do something of the same here.
I'll probably throw out a few more tid-bits of what's happened in the post-1991 world throughout the TL, but things like South Africa (and other places) will have to wait for a sequel somewhere down the line. Sorry to tease everyone unduly, I'll try not to do it very often. ;)

Well, Sultan is probably doomed.

Things do look kinda bad, don't they? Sometimes it doesn't matter who your sponsor is...


Quick question in regard to situation maps. Aside from something focusing on northeastern Saudi Arabia to show units fighting along the coast and north of Riyadh, did anyone have any other requests on what they'd like to see more detail for?
 
Quick question in regard to situation maps. Aside from something focusing on northeastern Saudi Arabia to show units fighting along the coast and north of Riyadh, did anyone have any other requests on what they'd like to see more detail for?

How about southwestern Saudi Arabia to show the fighting there?
 
So here's the previous relief map of the Arab peninsula with the oil fields, oil pipelines, roads (expressways, secondary, tertiary and quartary), railways, and settlements (cities, towns and villages) marked. Settlements are currently unlabelled.

arabia relief map edited with oil cities railways roads bases desalination incomplete jpeg.jpg
 
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