Lands of Red and Gold, Act II

I'm going to venture a guess — his name is "David Houston."

That was my guess too. A quick look on Wikipedia doesn't show any British explorers in 18th century Australia named that, though-I get the feeling that this is an allohistorical version of a character from OTL, though I could be wrong.
 
Do you happen to have a Conlang behind this, or are you basing this off of actual Aboriginal languages?

My interest in inventing new languages is not particularly high. Tolkien was a linguist; I'm not.

All that I've invented for LoRaG is a handful of phrases and names, and a few general rules about sounds in those languages. The rules for sounds are based on common features of OTL Aboriginal languages, which after all have many shared features in common (e.g. the lack of fricatives I've mentioned earlier) due to being part of a Sprachbund.

For names in general, I use a combination of OTL Aboriginal words (from many languages), some modified OTL ones which are still consistent with the general rules, and a few which I just make up from scratch.

Isn't this a little bit low Jared? Why is it better to suffer swelling-fever, red breath, blister-rash or the waiting death than live in a port where the Inglidj land? The whining stops when the patient dies.

I'm not sure I follow.

All that the Kurnawal general meant by that statement was that the Inglidj did not need to fear betrayal by the Kurnawal, simply because the Inglidj offered too much in the way of military support (and other gifts) for it to be worthwhile for the Kurnawal to betray them. He wasn't making any comparison to the suffering brought about by European (or Aururian) diseases.

The Kurnawal don't connect the Inglidj with the introduction of diseases at all. If they were to blame anyone, they'd blame the Dutch who were around for the introduction of the various European diseases. But with medical knowledge at the level it is (i.e. not high), no-one is really blamed for introducing those diseases to *Tasmania; the plagues cause immense suffering, but are not really attributed to any particular people.

I'm going to venture a guess — his name is "David Houston."

That is indeed the name which the Kurnawal are trying to pronounce.

That was my guess too. A quick look on Wikipedia doesn't show any British explorers in 18th century Australia named that, though-I get the feeling that this is an allohistorical version of a character from OTL, though I could be wrong.

He is not based on any OTL British explorers; I can say that much.
 
Sorry Jared, I was referring to the Australian meme that "poms" are whiners, and reading it into the quoted exchange, and then riffing off a nationalist bigoted joke that compares "poms" to jets, in that jets stop whining.

Maybe far too obtuse on my part with too many provincial references.

Sorry,
Sam R.
 
Sorry Jared, I was referring to the Australian meme that "poms" are whiners, and reading it into the quoted exchange, and then riffing off a nationalist bigoted joke that compares "poms" to jets, in that jets stop whining.

Maybe far too obtuse on my part with too many provincial references.

No worries. Lack of reading comprehension on my part, more than anything.

On another note, I'm now trying to map out how industrialisation will happen in the LoRaG world. That is, what will be the first country to industrialise, and what form will that industrialisation take.

There are many changes from OTL in this, of course, but probably the biggest one for the general development of industrialisation is that short-staple cotton will be unavailable until much later than it was in OTL. This does rather change the development of textiles during the Industrial Revolution; by some definitions, the adoption of textiles was the Industrial Revolution.

Does anyone have any thoughts on what might fill that hole? Long-staple cotton will still be around, but in OTL that was something like 10% of the South's cotton exports in 1860, and so will be rather limiting on the cotton supply for development of textiles. Some of that production could be expanded at the expense of sugar in the Caribbean, perhaps, but it will still be a slow development. The coal/iron/steel aspect of the Industrial Revolution will still gradually develop, as will brewing, but that may not be enough.
 
On another note, I'm now trying to map out how industrialisation will happen in the LoRaG world. That is, what will be the first country to industrialise, and what form will that industrialisation take.

There are many changes from OTL in this, of course, but probably the biggest one for the general development of industrialisation is that short-staple cotton will be unavailable until much later than it was in OTL. This does rather change the development of textiles during the Industrial Revolution; by some definitions, the adoption of textiles was the Industrial Revolution.

Does anyone have any thoughts on what might fill that hole? Long-staple cotton will still be around, but in OTL that was something like 10% of the South's cotton exports in 1860, and so will be rather limiting on the cotton supply for development of textiles. Some of that production could be expanded at the expense of sugar in the Caribbean, perhaps, but it will still be a slow development. The coal/iron/steel aspect of the Industrial Revolution will still gradually develop, as will brewing, but that may not be enough.

From a labour perspective, which ever handicraft industry ends up supplying most of Europe's cloth and clothwares. Frame-knitters are going to be taken down somehow; and, if we follow the Autonomists, machines aren't for improving profits so much as smashing labour's composition.

Britain is still a good chance due to the virtuous spiral in cloth with Holland that goes back to the 12th Century. If the low countries avoid destructive war, they're a good bet too.

Change to France might help, but I'm not sure that the right kind of precursor production exists coastally. I assumed cloth industries relied on riverine transport, which is the low countries' problems on steroids.

I see the flow here as: mercantile capital -> putting out -> labour households' increase in strength -> mechanisation. So that means that it is a Department IIb issue: mass consumer products. And that's cloth. And that's hemp, flax, wool or cotton. Some bright lark will develop a machine useful for processes to attack labour. If it isn't at the back end (spinning) it will be at the front end (printed silks). Mechanisation will proceed apace to attack workers, and all you need to do is wait for someone to mechanise the central preparation, spinning and weaving processes of one of the core fibres and we can boot from there. M -> C ... P ... C' -> M' and so it goes according to our beardy Germany friends.

So I guess, Jared, it is up to you to figure out in alternate Europe:
Where has decent transport
Is safe from destructive wars
Has a lot of households willing to specialise purely in fibre products
Has easy access to world transport
And which Fibre craft gets mechanised first in the core prep and spinning process?
Having a government already amenable to involvement of mercantile bourgeoisie by enoblement is a bonus.

The attack on a Belgian Flax working class by mechanisation will look different to the attack on a Dutch Hemp working class by mechanisation will look different to an attack on a British Woolens working class by mechanisation.

your fibres will vary,
Sam R.
 

The Sandman

Banned
A stronger and much larger Maori population with a thirst for foreign goods is likely to quickly figure out how much their flax is in demand.

I suppose the question is whether you can make linen from New Zealand flax that's as comfortable to wear as cotton.

Another possibility, although I'm not sure whether it would be the right sort of cotton, would be increased cotton production in Mesopotamia and possibly Central Asia as a side effect of the impending population boom from the spread of Aururian crops. Basically, Aururian crops for food, and cotton to sell.

Cotton is also likely to take over much of the land that would still have been used for tobacco in the OTL Americas, since the market for American tobacco is collapsing as kunduri out-competes it.

And are there any other fiber crops from Africa or Australia/Aururia that might take cotton's place to at least some extent?

...maybe an increase in silk production too. It would certainly sell well in Aururia, given the climate, although I'm not sure if there are any areas where silk could be produced there that wouldn't already be used for something else.
 
The industrialization of the Maori would be...troubling, to say the least, for their neighbors. It would probably be the impetus they need to start raiding South America.
 
From a labour perspective, which ever handicraft industry ends up supplying most of Europe's cloth and clothwares. Frame-knitters are going to be taken down somehow; and, if we follow the Autonomists, machines aren't for improving profits so much as smashing labour's composition.

Hmm. So there's no possibility of an industrial revolution without textiles? Or, more precisely, no possibility that the basic principles of the industrial revolution (mechanisation of manufacturing, switch from cottage industries to factories, adoption of wind/water/steam power, etc) could begin with another commoediaty and be widely taken up before textile manufacturing becomes industrialised? Or are textiles the only commodity which can really manage that?

The only alternative which springs to mind offhand is brewing, but even a large urban class can only drink so much beer. Perhaps in combination with tobacco / kunduri processing? It would be ironic if the ATL idea of industrialisation is that it needs to be driven by drugs.

So I guess, Jared, it is up to you to figure out in alternate Europe:
Where has decent transport
Is safe from destructive wars
Has a lot of households willing to specialise purely in fibre products
Has easy access to world transport
And which Fibre craft gets mechanised first in the core prep and spinning process?
Having a government already amenable to involvement of mercantile bourgeoisie by enoblement is a bonus.

When you put it like that, things are actually looking rather difficult. I can think of plenty of places which meet some of those conditions, but two of them (safe from wars and fibre mechanisation) are not easy.

Britain's biggest advantage was the anti-tank ditch off Dover which kept it safe from destructive wars for so long. ITTL Britain will have a somewhat later civil war, and then other warfare on its soil into the early eighteenth century. That may well retard the development of the requisite fibre industries.

The problem with continental Europe is that it is, well, on the continent, and war tends to run over so much of it. Belgium would be ideal in many respects (water transport, existing fibre craft, with a bonus of being close to coal) but is rather a target for warfare. Perhaps parts of western France could survive warfare due to being away from the main battle zones; if Jean-Baptiste Colbert or an analogue can make the Loire more reliably navigable, perhaps things could develop there. Possibly the Netherlands, too, if they have a friendly eastern border and if any southern warfare happens in modern Belgium rather than on core Dutch soil.

The attack on a Belgian Flax working class by mechanisation will look different to the attack on a Dutch Hemp working class by mechanisation will look different to an attack on a British Woolens working class by mechanisation.

The usefulness of those various fibres is something I'd need to investigate, but offhand, I think that they all lack some of the advantages of cotton. Cotton had so many advantages (light, easily washable, easier to take dyes, etc) that it meant that it could persuade the growing middle classes to buy cotton fabrics even when they still had existing woollen or other textiles. This created a bigger market.

Mechanised linen or hemp clothing would be cheaper to produce, but wouldn't produce the same mass demand for replacement that helped to drive the rapid take up of cotton textiles. Maybe there would be a slower but still virtuous cycle of mechanisation of fibre craft, but there would probably be a more gradual evolution, if it happens at all.

Mind you, I do like the idea of an *Industrial Revolution driven by the mechanisation of hemp fibre, brewing, and tobacco/kunduri processing.

A stronger and much larger Maori population with a thirst for foreign goods is likely to quickly figure out how much their flax is in demand.

I suppose the question is whether you can make linen from New Zealand flax that's as comfortable to wear as cotton.

New Zealand flax can make wearable clothes, but they're not as comfortable as cotton. In OTL, the manufacturing and export of New Zealand flax products was largely driven by cordage, with some paper making and sailcloth in the early days). While it was a viable export industry for a while, even in making rope New Zealand flax was slightly inferior to competitor tropical fibres (sisal and Manila hemp), though it was better than regular hemp.

ATL, with cotton much reduced in presence, it then comes down to whether clothing from New Zealand flax is better than woollen or linen or hemp clothing... good question, actually. I suspect not, but I'll have to look into that some more.

Another possibility, although I'm not sure whether it would be the right sort of cotton, would be increased cotton production in Mesopotamia and possibly Central Asia as a side effect of the impending population boom from the spread of Aururian crops. Basically, Aururian crops for food, and cotton to sell.

Not entirely impossible, but there's the question of ease of transport (not great), stopping nomad incursions etc. Even then, I don't know whether suitable cotton varieties exist. Long-staple cotton didn't even arrive in Egypt until the 1840s in OTL, and it may not even grow in Mesopotamia. It is rather frost sensitive and temperamental, although if Egypt can manage it, southern Mesopotamia might as well.

Cotton is also likely to take over much of the land that would still have been used for tobacco in the OTL Americas, since the market for American tobacco is collapsing as kunduri out-competes it.

The problem is that long-staple cotton is a tropical plant. It was only cultivatable on the coastal regions of Georgia and South Carolina (mostly the Sea Islands), and maybe similarly along the coast of Florida, Mississippi, Alabama etc. It couldn't be grown reliably inland - the quality was inferior when it could be managed , and any frost or cold weather would kill it.

That was why the cotton gin was such a big thing in OTL - it allowed the commercial cultivation of upland/short-staple cotton (a different species). Short-staple cotton was grown pretty much everywhere it could be in the OTL South, and out-competed tobacco in OTL. So there isn't anywhere for cotton to take over tobacco production ITTL - it already managed that OTL.

The odd thing ITTL is that tobacco could now be grown more widely (e.g. in the uplands of Georgia and South Carolina), but kunduri has still killed much of that market, and so the uplands of those regions will largely be backwaters unless there's another crop entirely which can be grown there.

And are there any other fiber crops from Africa or Australia/Aururia that might take cotton's place to at least some extent?

Offhand, I can't think of any. Aururia has its own version of flax, which would be similarly useful for making linen, but other than being more drought-tolerant doesn't offer any particular advantages over Old World linen. New Zealand flax is most competitive in sailcloth and cordage, not clothes per se.

...maybe an increase in silk production too. It would certainly sell well in Aururia, given the climate, although I'm not sure if there are any areas where silk could be produced there that wouldn't already be used for something else.

Silk will certainly be a popular fabric, and may well filter down more into the middle classes than happened in OTL. But it's a very labour-intensive, expensive crop, which makes it much harder to develop the mass market that cotton permitted.

The industrialization of the Maori would be...troubling, to say the least, for their neighbors. It would probably be the impetus they need to start raiding South America.

"Buy our textiles, or we'll pillage your port and take your money anyway"?
 

mojojojo

Gone Fishin'
As the Storm Leader drew near, the leader raged again, this time in his own Inglidj tongue. From the few words which the Storm Leader had learned of that outland language, what Dyabi spoke in his own language was obscenity, too. Though why excrement and fornication should be considered obscene was a puzzlement that Narrung still could not comprehend. Without fornication there would be no marriage, while without excrement, farming would be much harder.


Thoughts?
So what are Kurnawal swear words like then?
 
So what are Kurnawal swear words like then?

Given their love of complex wordplay, maybe something like Cockney rhyming slang, where innocuous words or phrases are used to allude to whatever they consider profane or obscene?

Edit: And I bet the Tjunini go in for genealogical curses. ("Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!")
 
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Hnau

Banned
There are many changes from OTL in this, of course, but probably the biggest one for the general development of industrialisation is that short-staple cotton will be unavailable until much later than it was in OTL. This does rather change the development of textiles during the Industrial Revolution; by some definitions, the adoption of textiles was the Industrial Revolution.

Does anyone have any thoughts on what might fill that hole? Long-staple cotton will still be around, but in OTL that was something like 10% of the South's cotton exports in 1860, and so will be rather limiting on the cotton supply for development of textiles. Some of that production could be expanded at the expense of sugar in the Caribbean, perhaps, but it will still be a slow development. The coal/iron/steel aspect of the Industrial Revolution will still gradually develop, as will brewing, but that may not be enough.

I'm going to heartily disagree that the world won't industrialize. Industrialization was much more than textiles, though to be sure that industry gave industrialization a massive boost. There is still brewing, like you've said, and also the manufacturing of machine tools, gas lighting, glass, paper, cement, steel, arms, railways. Don't forget the mechanization of agriculture, that's a big one. Industrialization will still happen without textiles, a bit slower maybe and different, but it'll happen. Look at Japan. Cotton and textiles weren't important to Japan's industrialization. They were concentrating on silk products at first.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
Hmm. So there's no possibility of an industrial revolution without textiles? Or, more precisely, no possibility that the basic principles of the industrial revolution (mechanisation of manufacturing, switch from cottage industries to factories, adoption of wind/water/steam power, etc) could begin with another commoediaty and be widely taken up before textile manufacturing becomes industrialised? Or are textiles the only commodity which can really manage that?

The only alternative which springs to mind offhand is brewing, but even a large urban class can only drink so much beer. Perhaps in combination with tobacco / kunduri processing? It would be ironic if the ATL idea of industrialisation is that it needs to be driven by drugs.

I'd argue that cotton textiles weren't specially suited to industrialization. They were specially suited to high and reliable profits. High and reliable profits in turn meant sustained demand for the same product, as much as possible, year after year. It's that high and sustained demand that can yield results we would recognize as an industrial revolution. With anything else it will be a much slower process - the positive feedback cycle was crucial.
 

Admiral Matt

Gone Fishin'
I'm going to heartily disagree that the world won't industrialize. Industrialization was much more than textiles, though to be sure that industry gave industrialization a massive boost. There is still brewing, like you've said, and also the manufacturing of machine tools, gas lighting, glass, paper, cement, steel, arms, railways. Don't forget the mechanization of agriculture, that's a big one. Industrialization will still happen without textiles, a bit slower maybe and different, but it'll happen. Look at Japan. Cotton and textiles weren't important to Japan's industrialization. They were concentrating on silk products at first.

Hrm. Most of those were built almost entirely on the foundation textile manufacturing had already established. They were great, but they were symptoms of the industrial age, not its causes.

It's not "Will those ever happen?" They will. The question is "How do you get an IR without the OTL driving forces?"
 
So what are Kurnawal swear words like then?

Given their love of complex wordplay, maybe something like Cockney rhyming slang, where innocuous words or phrases are used to allude to whatever they consider profane or obscene?

Kurnawal swear words are a combination of their love of wordplay, and blasphemy. A straightforward example is a phrase which literally translates as "Twins' spears", which is a reference to the deities known as the Fire Brothers, but to their anatomy and not something which they carry in their hands. Likewise, references to a certain deity's "rocks" does not allude to something which they have in a bag over their shoulder, and "the great gaping chasm" is not a reference to the Water Mother's smile.

Edit: And I bet the Tjunini go in for genealogical curses. ("Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!")

There's a certain amount of that: "son of a rabid wombat", "your mother's vulva was flea-infested", and so forth. But a big part of Tjunini curses goes in for comparing someone to qualities which are usually attributed to Kurnawal: "honourless", "sneaky" and the like. Other options are comparing someone to some of the Kurnawal named in the Song.

I'm going to heartily disagree that the world won't industrialize. Industrialization was much more than textiles, though to be sure that industry gave industrialization a massive boost. There is still brewing, like you've said, and also the manufacturing of machine tools, gas lighting, glass, paper, cement, steel, arms, railways. Don't forget the mechanization of agriculture, that's a big one. Industrialization will still happen without textiles, a bit slower maybe and different, but it'll happen.

The "Industrial Revolution" covers what are really two industrial revolutions. There's one which (for want of a technical term) refers to "mechanisation of fine, intricate products", and there's the "big, energy-intensive industry" process, which involved coal, steam engines, iron and steel manufacturing, and so on.

While there were some synergies between the two (e.g. steam engines in textiles), the second process (big industry) mostly began and developed independently from the mechanisation of textiles. The demand for this came from heating (lack of wood meant ever-increasing demand for coal), mechanisation of agriculture (demand for iron), and related products like cast-iron cookware (a superior product which created its own demand). This process will still continue apace even if cotton textiles are not yet mechanised, and will probably spread into areas like transportation.

While the first process (fine manufacturing) wasn't only cotton textiles (brewing also came into it), the cotton textiles were a big, big part. It was what created the mass market that led to the takeup of the production techniques (and ability to out-compete the cottage industries) which were then spread to other commodities.

Without those valuable textiles, the question is whether an alternative product can generate the same mass market demand. And if so, what the alternative product is, because that will largely determine when and how the "fine manufacturing" side of the Industrial Revolution happens.

Look at Japan. Cotton and textiles weren't important to Japan's industrialization. They were concentrating on silk products at first.

Certainly once the Industrial Revolution has happened, nations can adapt the techniques to industries other than cotton textiles. As well as Japan, another example is Sweden, which had a certain amount of iron ore, but had industrialisation largely driven by wood products. But the question is whether (and how quickly) the techniques will develop in the first place, in the absence of such a high-value product as cotton to create the virtuous circle that drove industrial innovation in Britain.

I'd argue that cotton textiles weren't specially suited to industrialization. They were specially suited to high and reliable profits. High and reliable profits in turn meant sustained demand for the same product, as much as possible, year after year. It's that high and sustained demand that can yield results we would recognize as an industrial revolution. With anything else it will be a much slower process - the positive feedback cycle was crucial.

To quibble for a moment, cotton textiles had certain qualities which, while not necessarily vital, were of great encouragement to industrialisation. Cotton was in many ways harder to spin and weave than previous fibres, which in turn made it rather more labour intensive, and that encouraged the development of some of the earlier forms of mechanisation (flying shuttle, spinning jenny etc).

But certainly, the biggest advantage of cotton textiles was their virtually limitless demand. Well before the Industrial Revolution really got going, imported cotton textiles from India had already shown the demand advantages of cotton. The various qualities of cotton - lightness of wear, washability, and better at taking dyes - ensured that even handwoven cotton textiles could outcompete most of the previous fibres (except expensive silk). From the late eighteenth century through to the middle of the nineteenth century, it seemed that cotton demand was essentially limitless, and generated the sorts of profits and innovation which fed into other parts of industrialisation.

The question, I suppose, is whether there is an alternative product which is capable of generating a similar level of demand in a reasonable timeframe. Demand for alcohol may be a good start, but I'm still looking into other alternatives.
 
Hmm. So there's no possibility of an industrial revolution without textiles? Or, more precisely, no possibility that the basic principles of the industrial revolution (mechanisation of manufacturing, switch from cottage industries to factories, adoption of wind/water/steam power, etc) could begin with another commoediaty and be widely taken up before textile manufacturing becomes industrialised? Or are textiles the only commodity which can really manage that?

Beer has transport problems. You can't export it to the world.
Drugs and sugar, while demanded, don't require mechanisation in production in the same way.
Steel is ancillary, it is a prototypical Department I (Production of means and tools of production) product
Food has a too slow return on capital

Cloth is the "killer app." High latent demand, mass demand, readily transported, amenable to mechanisation to attack existing labour processes.

The only alternative which springs to mind offhand is brewing, but even a large urban class can only drink so much beer. Perhaps in combination with tobacco / kunduri processing? It would be ironic if the ATL idea of industrialisation is that it needs to be driven by drugs.

It could be, but I think the problem with drugs in this era is transportability. Beer is heavy and slow. You transport the hops and grain.

Tobacco and Kunduri might be amenable to traditional factory labour... in their production centres, where labour is enslaved and unpaid, and capitalisation is minimal.


When you put it like that, things are actually looking rather difficult. I can think of plenty of places which meet some of those conditions, but two of them (safe from wars and fibre mechanisation) are not easy.

Remember I said "Destructive" wars. If the Ultra-Catholics of the ECW2 merely murder Britons without burning their looms it'll be fine.

The low countries, riverine France and riverine Germany might be fine: so long as wars don't destroy household accumulation, and so long as they don't kill everyone who can inherit the loom. Remember that the households that became frame knitters delayed reproduction until the 20s due to over population in relation to means of production. If we "open up spaces" then they'll lower the marriage age to survive murder by states.

Britain's biggest advantage was the anti-tank ditch off Dover which kept it safe from destructive wars for so long. ITTL Britain will have a somewhat later civil war, and then other warfare on its soil into the early eighteenth century. That may well retard the development of the requisite fibre industries.

Could do, could do. Depends it it damages the industry. France was involved in loads of wars and still had protomechanisation of the silk industry in the 1790s in printing. The issue is if the war destroys petit-bourgeois and bourgeois capital. So maybe if the major sieges occur in fortresses that aren't the ones with the proto-mills.

The problem with continental Europe is that it is, well, on the continent, and war tends to run over so much of it. Belgium would be ideal in many respects (water transport, existing fibre craft, with a bonus of being close to coal) but is rather a target for warfare. Perhaps parts of western France could survive warfare due to being away from the main battle zones; if Jean-Baptiste Colbert or an analogue can make the Loire more reliably navigable, perhaps things could develop there. Possibly the Netherlands, too, if they have a friendly eastern border and if any southern warfare happens in modern Belgium rather than on core Dutch soil.

Entirely about where the wars happen, and if they destroy fibre industry capitalisation and proto-capitalisations. A series of long sieges on the land with the mills is worse than a periodic fortress swapping or capture of the mercantile capital. In fact, destroy the mercantile capital can be beneficial for productive capital.

The usefulness of those various fibres is something I'd need to investigate, but offhand, I think that they all lack some of the advantages of cotton. Cotton had so many advantages (light, easily washable, easier to take dyes, etc) that it meant that it could persuade the growing middle classes to buy cotton fabrics even when they still had existing woollen or other textiles. This created a bigger market.

Mechanised linen or hemp clothing would be cheaper to produce, but wouldn't produce the same mass demand for replacement that helped to drive the rapid take up of cotton textiles. Maybe there would be a slower but still virtuous cycle of mechanisation of fibre craft, but there would probably be a more gradual evolution, if it happens at all.

Not my area of expertise. Remember that in the 17th and 18th centuries protocapitalism was booting in domestic outproduction in Holland and England. Sheep ate up the land from the 12th century. The decisive possibility occurs when you can use a combination of corn prices, wage labour, and mechanisation to destroy the putting out system.

* * *

Remember Belgium, Holland and France were only 20 years behind Britain at most in industrialisation, and they were tramped over with war.

yours,
Sam R.
 
Drugs and sugar, while demanded, don't require mechanisation in production in the same way.
Sugar industry was an early adopter of mechanization in OTL (and a pioneer of Industrial Revolution in some countries, including my own). According to Fogel's Without Consent and Contract,
The sugar plantations were not only large but also used some of the most advanced technology of their age. Every sugar plantation of any size had a sugar factory upon it that employed about 20 percent of its labor force. On the medium and large plantations these factories housed some of the most expensive and elaborate industrial equipment of the day. In Louisiana, on Thomas Pugh's Madewood Plantation for example, the sugar factory was a brick building 40 feet wide and 340 feet long (longer than a Manhattan block) and laid with iron rails so that cars could bring the cane right into the factory.

In Cuba, planters enthusiastically promoted railroad construction. Sugar planters were also quick to use steam engines

Sugar planters led the way in still another major technological innovation - the development of a new industrial labor discipline.

However, mechanized sugar mills were still part of slave (or serf) systems, so it looks like a sugar-based Industrial Revolution, if at all doable, would be even more atrocious affair than OTL's cotton-based one that used free labour at least at manufacturing stage, if not in the fields.
 
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Beer has transport problems. You can't export it to the world.
Drugs and sugar, while demanded, don't require mechanisation in production in the same way.
Steel is ancillary, it is a prototypical Department I (Production of means and tools of production) product
Food has a too slow return on capital

Cloth is the "killer app." High latent demand, mass demand, readily transported, amenable to mechanisation to attack existing labour processes.

After looking into things a bit more, I agree that without mechanisation of cloth, industrialisation is going to proceed much slower. As well as the factors you mention, there's also the fact that clothing consumed such a large part of household budgets in that era, which meant that the returns were so much better, leading in turn to an earlier and more vigorous virtuous cycle of investment.

Other products were part of early industrialisation (brewing, furniture making, etc), but they accounted for a much smaller share of household budgets, and thus any industrialisation based on them is going to proceed much more slowly. With one caveat re sugar (see below).

Tobacco and Kunduri might be amenable to traditional factory labour... in their production centres, where labour is enslaved and unpaid, and capitalisation is minimal.

Oddly enough, one of the features of TTL is that tobacco, at least in English colonies in North America, is largely cultivated by free labour. Lower supply of slaves, plus lower export prices for tobacco, leads to this change. So there may be some potential for early industrialisation there, though capitalisation will still be a significant problem.

Kunduri, I'm still not sure whether the main labour sources will be free or enslaved.

Entirely about where the wars happen, and if they destroy fibre industry capitalisation and proto-capitalisations. A series of long sieges on the land with the mills is worse than a periodic fortress swapping or capture of the mercantile capital. In fact, destroy the mercantile capital can be beneficial for productive capital.

Certainly some wars are more destructive than others, although I still find it telling that Belgian industrialisation didn't really take off until 1815 and the long period of relative peace that followed. But this does allow enough scope for me to work out where the wars would likely be, and whether they will be destructive enough.

Based on this and some other research I've done, it looks like there's 3 promising regions:

- Yorkshire (woollen textiles)
- modern Belgium (if it can be spared the wars)
- Bavaria (likewise if it can be spared wars, and it had a thriving textile industry before the industrial revolution)

France looks somewhat less promising, although the Lyons silk industry might amount to something.

Oddly enough, it looks like the Netherlands would be a bad place for early industrialisation. Their agricultural productivity was so good that it kept wages high enough to be difficult to industrialise until later than places like Belgium. While the Netherlands may well take up industrialisation later, I don't think it's a good place to begin.

Sugar industry was an early adopter of mechanization in OTL (and a pioneer of Industrial Revolution in some countries, including my own).

The caveat about sugar which I mentioned above is relevant here. In OTL, the tradition with sugar cane on the Atlantic rim was to concentrate on production and export of raw sugar directly, rather than manufacturing it into other products (hard candies, rum, etc). There were exceptions, but they were minor for quite a long time.

This was a tradition established very early in the Atlantic sugar trade, and one which had some reasons behind it (potential perishability of finished products, reliance on imported slave labour with a short life expectancy meaning less interest in developing skilled factory labour, lack of fuel near sites of cultivation, etc). But there were also advantages in siting sugar manufacturing close to the centre of production, as was demonstrated in Java. In Java, a manufacturing and export industry developed around sugar during the nineteenth century, based on production of hard candies, rum, and other products. Java was doing this while places like Cuba were still exporting raw sugar. Of course, Java didn't have quite the same system of imported slave labour, which probably had a lot to do with it, and if memory serves much of the manufacturing was organised by Chinese merchants rather than the Javanese farmers.

In other words, depending on the circumstances of sugar production ITTL, it's possible that sugar will be an early candidate for industrialisation, although probably not the first candidate.

* * *

On a broader note, after thinking this through, I think that the most likely outcome is that the pieces of what formed the OTL Industrial Revolution will ITTL develop in a slower, more evolutionary process, and in many cases be separated geographically. To people from this timeline, the Industrial Revolution will be seen as even less revolutionary than it was in OTL.

Britain will still lead the way in coal extraction; the deforestation was already severe before the Aururian plagues hit, and while there will be some forest regrowth because of lower population, this won't slow things down by much more than a generation (two at the outside). The flow-on from coal extraction will also assist in the development of better ironworking.

Better transportation networks in the form of canal-building and horse-drawn railways will be adopted and expanded in several suitable areas, including Britain, parts of modern Belgium, the Netherlands, potentially parts of northern Italy, and elsewhere.

Fibrecraft will lack a single centre of initial industrialisation, but the same evolutionary protoindustrial processes that were developing in OTL will be taken up in separate regions, more slowly because of the more limited nature of the demand. Cotton will still be around, but not the mass market good that it became after the OTL Southern US cotton boom.

Linen, hemp, wool and silk will each have their place as textile fibres, leading to several different centres of mechanisation. Yorkshire and maybe *Belgium will slowly develop mechanisation of wool textiles, with new supplies of fibre coming from an odd place in the New World. The *Bavarian textile industry will still develop based on the limited supplies of cotton, but with a much slower virtuous cycle of reinvestment. Lyons may independently develop a French silk-based industrial "revolution", depending on how much sericulture can be expanded there. An Aururian flax-based linen industry will also develop around certain parts of the Mediterranean, although it may adapt other mechanisation techniques rather than independently invent them.

Eventually cotton production will ramp up in the *southern USA, but it will be appearing in a different kind of world market.

As for the non-European sugar-based industrialisation... well, that's another story.
 
Lands of Red and Gold #73: Taken For a Ride
Lands of Red and Gold #73: Taken For a Ride

“And I saw, and behold a white horse: and he that sat on him had a bow; and a crown was given unto him: and he went forth conquering, and to conquer.”
- Revelations 6:2, King James Version

* * *

7 May 1645 / 8th Year of Regent Gunya Yadji
Near Kirunmara [Terang, Victoria]
Durigal [Land of the Five Directions]

Bright, clear sunlight shone down on an open field. An open, dry field with lush grass growing tall in late autumn, still unmarred before the rapid turning of winter. Grass that was now about to be trampled underfoot by strange horses.

From his vantage on the nearest rise, Bidwadjari, Lord of Warmasters, could only smile. The last time he had looked over a field where horses were being ridden, it had been the field of battle, when One True Egg [Pieter Nuyts] had brought his force of Raw Men in a bid to seize Durigal itself. Before Gunya Yadji – it was safe to name the Regent in his own thoughts, if nowhere else – had won the great battle.

That field had been muddy and waterlogged, and that time, the sight of horses had brought fear to all the Junditmara warriors who beheld them. This time, the field was dry and ready for the Raw Men, and the sight of horses was entirely welcome.

The horse riders formed into a column, four abreast, to ride across the field. They moved at a pace faster than a man could walk, though much slower than the charging horses which Bidwadjari had seen at the last field of battle. The column changed direction twice as they crossed the field, turning first to the left and then to the right, the riders keeping formation behind their fellows, so that their line took on the appearance of a twisted serpent.

When they reached the far side of the field, the riders completed another slow wheel that turned them around, then changed formation from column to line. The leading horses halted while those behind spread out to each side, forming into four ranks that spread across the breadth of the field. They began to advance at a marvellous pace, much faster than a man could run.

“Magnificent,” Bidwadjari murmured.

A row of dummies stood in the middle of the field, awaiting the charge. When the first rank of horse riders drew near, they fired the thunder-weapons they called pistols; the rising smoke announced their actions long before the sound carried to Bidwadjari’s vantage. The front rank drew their swords as the charge reached the dummies. Metal flashed in the sunlight as they cut the rank of dummies apart.

“Now I know how Illalong must have felt, watching those beasts ride him to his death,” he said. Illalong had been a capable warmaster, but his army had been shattered by horses like these, with Illalong himself falling together with so many of his men. That defeat had been avenged, but at a terrible price.

Now, these magnificent, dangerous beasts rode for the Regent.

“Come. I wish to speak to the Inglidj commander.” Bidwadjari began to walk down the slope, and the cluster of other warmasters and bodyguards followed behind.

The Inglidj commander was waiting for them down the slope. Bidwadjari had only dealt with a handful of these Raw Men, but if he was any judge, this commander was a young man. A brown-haired, thin-moustached, very young man. An arrogant young man, by all reports.

Yet the Inglidj commander had royal blood in his homeland, which for reasons of state the Regent had chosen to recognise here in the Land, too. And such arrogance could be tolerated for a man who brought so many horsemen to command.

“Six hundred horsemen, and more on their way,” Bidwadjari murmured, as they neared the Inglidj commander. “With three hundred horse, One True Egg came close to breaking the Regency. Now we have double that number to march on Tjibarr.”

Bidwadjari bowed in the form which was respectful among the Inglidj. “Blood and honour, Prince Roo Predj.”

“I welcome you,” the Inglidj commander said in turn. He used the dominant form of the pronoun, much as he always used the commanding form of verbs. Part of the evidence of his arrogance. But so long as he fought and won battles for the Regent, little else mattered.

*

Prince Ruprecht, Duke of Cumberland [1], loved many things in life, but of those which were traditionally performed while still vertical, nothing could match riding a horse across an open field on a glorious day. Except perhaps when leading a regiment of cavalry into battle.

Today was not such a day, but he still had a column of cavalry behind him, following as he led them in a serpentine path across the open field. A display for the Yadji generals, to give them some appreciation of what cavalry could do. These savages did not even have horses of their own, and needed a proper education in what could be accomplished by a band of good men on good horses.

Ruprecht’s mind was only half aware of the orders he gave for the regiment to wheel left, then right across the field. His regiment. Men he had personally recruited, mostly from Germany, but with a few Englishmen and Italians among them.

Would-be recruits had been easy to find. So many soldiers were left over after the end of the war in Germany, seeking fresh opportunities to wield a sword in anger. Italy was quiet nowadays, and Poland could not absorb everyone.

Besides, fables of Aururian gold had spread widely across Europe. Tales strong enough to lure men around half the world. The right men, that is; Ruprecht had chosen only veterans. Six hundred already here among the Yadji, with three hundred more to follow.

The cavalry wheeled around at the far side of the field, and Ruprecht shouted out the order to change into line formation. Here was one of the joys of life! The men formed up and charged across the field. Ruprecht fired his pistol as they neared the targets, then drew his sword and cut down two of the dummies as he rode between them. He let his horse slow down after that, as the regiment crossed the rest of the field.

“Let’s see any of these savages stand up to that kind of charge!” he declared, but in German. A few of the natives had learned English., and the Yadji generals were coming down the slope. Ruprecht passed his horse’s reins to the nearest soldier, and went to meet them.

“Blood and honour, Prince Roo Predj,” said the white-haired senior Yadji general. Bidwadjari, that was his name.

“I welcome you,” Ruprecht said, in the Yadji language.

After the greetings, he signalled for the interpreter to step forward. In truth, though, he expected to have little need of the wiry little man. Ruprecht’s command of the Yadji language was far from perfect, but it was serviceable, and he learned more each day. Learning a fifth language posed few fears to a man who already spoke four, and that was without counting his limited Latin and Greek.

Bidwadjari said, “Your horsemen are most impressive. A spectacle which the Regent’s enemies will fear greatly.”

The interpreter started to translate, but Ruprecht waved him to silence. “They are well-trained, and-” he realised he did not know the Yadji word for veteran, but could not be bothered asking the interpreter “-have seen many battles.”

“Training is good. Discipline is better,” Bidwadjari said. “Did your men learn discipline through training, or in battle?”

“Some from each,” Ruprecht said.

This Yadji general was no fool, and speaking to him directly was so much better than through an interpreter. Others had warned him of the perils of speaking the Yadji language, how choosing the wrong word could be a mortal insult, but the prospect held no fear for him. He simply learned the forms of their language which showed command over others.

Recognising his princely rank had been part of Ruprecht’s price for coming here; to the Yadji, he was known as the prince who was second in line for the English throne. That position made him superior to anyone here except their emperor and his two sons. Ruprecht simply made sure that he did not speak the Yadji language in the presence of any of them; in any case, he had only met their emperor once, and did not expect to do so again until called back in triumph once the Dutch cats’ paws were defeated.

Bidwadjari waited for him to continue, so at length Ruprecht said, “All soldiers must be trained. But there was a great war fought in our...” He realised that the Yadji had no word for continent, and continued, “That is, fought near England. Germany, we call the nation. Most of my soldiers learned to fight in that war.”

Bidwadjari shook his head; Ruprecht had been in Aururia long enough to know that gesture meant the same as a nod did back in civilization. The Yadji general said, “And how many of those soldiers learned to withstand a charge?”

“Some,” Ruprecht said. “Muskets help. So do pikes. Long spears,” he added by way of explanation, but Bidwadjari was already shaking his head. He must have heard of pikes before. Strange. “But most of all, discipline.”

“Ah. Discipline our soldiers have, just as much as yours. Yet horsemen still won most battles when the Nedlandj invaded.”

Ruprecht shrugged. “Discipline helps. But it is not always enough.” He remained of the view that a good charge would break any of these native savages. The Yadji did have more military discipline than he had expected, but no natives in this Land of Gold had more than a handful of horses, and few had firearms. Discipline was hard to maintain when facing the unknown.

“A lesson which has already been taught to us,” Bidwadjari said. He added, “Tell me, why do you have your riders fire their pistols when they charge in? I doubt that your men can aim well when riding so fast.”

The prince chuckled, partly at the irony, but partly to hide just how disconcerting Bidwadjari was. The old savage was astute; no doubt about it. “They cannot aim at all. We just point our pistols in the right direction. The shots will bring them fear, not kill many enemies.”

“A tactic that will work once, perhaps twice,” Bidwadjari said. “Not more, not against the same soldiers.”

“I don’t plan to fight the same soldiers more than once,” Ruprecht said. How did the Yadji put it? “After they fight my horsemen, the next battle they fight will be their Last Battle [2].”

Bidwadjari laughed then, long and loudly. “Well said, my prince. But if some survive, and hold their ground in other battles? What then?”

“Then there is manoeuvre,” Ruprecht said. “Cavalry can move much faster than foot. If soldiers are prepared for a charge from the front, then bring the horse to their flanks, and hit them there.” Even well-disciplined infantry had difficulty holding if charged in the flank by cavalry; with these savages, he could guarantee that a flank charge would break them.

“And that always works?” Bidwadjari asked. “Even in Djer-ma-nee?”

Yes, this Yadji general was definitely no fool. The prince said, “Usually. Nothing is certain, though, save that we will all die some day.”

“Everyone has a Last Battle,” Bidwadjari said, in the tones of one reciting an ancient truism. “There is much we need to discuss of your horses and tactics, but they can wait. We will have much time on our march to learn from each other.”

Ruprecht doubted that these savages had anything to teach civilized men, but another thought pressed for his attention. “The Regent has confirmed his orders?”

“Yes. In two days’ time, we march for Jugara [Victor Harbor, South Australia] and the Nyalananga [River Murray] mouth. It is time to punish Tjibarr.”

* * *

By 1645 (by the European calendar), the Yadji had been at peace with their old rivals, Tjibarr, for almost thirty years. That was the longest period the two powers had been at peace – or, rather, between wars – in over two centuries. Warfare between the two countries was usually a much more frequent occurrence. The long delay only happened because of a combination of a mad Regent, a long and bitter civil war, and the disruptions of Old World diseases.

With the restoration of decent order within the Yadji realm, and the first shipments of arms from England, the period of not-war inevitably came to an end. The arrival of an ambitious prince from the far end of the world, and more precisely the six hundred or so crack cavalry he brought with him, only hastened the coming of war.

The Yadji troops were well-armed by their own standards, though with few of the muskets that they craved. They were well-supplied, too; their commanders had learned from previous failures where Yadji armies failed for want of supplies. With Bidwadjari in overall command, but with Prince Rupert determined to act as he wished for gold and glory, regardless of the Yadji general’s wishes.

Opposing them were the armies of Tjibarr. Outnumbered and less well-equipped than their rivals; Tjibarr only had about half of the Yadji Empire’s population, and their own Dutch allies had been slower to ship in arms than the English had been for their Yadji proxies. But Tjibarr had spent thirty years building fortifications, and had the advantage that the further the Yadji advanced, the longer grew their supply lines. The Yadji needed to bring goods over land by manpower or dogpower, while Tjibarr could keep itself supplied along the Nyalananga.

The conflict that followed had many names, depending on the people doing the naming. The people of Tjibarr called it, with varying senses of irony, the great unpleasantness. To the Yadji, it was named Bidwadjari’s War, to honour the great commander. To the English East India Company, and the English people back home, it was called Prince Rupert’s War, for the man who – to their understanding – commanded the war. The Dutch did not, for the moment, admit that they were involved in the war at all.

The first great battle was fought to capture Bunara [Goolwa], the riverine port which was the nearest by road to Jugara and the open sea. The armies of the Yadji were victorious, and the city was captured, though in keeping with ancient tradition it went unplundered. Tjibarr had built two forts between Bunara and Jugara, and Bidwadjari settled in to besiege them with his infantry. Prince Rupert had little patience for a siege, but led his cavalry in repeated sweeps of the countryside, sometimes engaging Tjibarr’s soldiers or factionaries, and sometimes just plundering people for the sake of it. It took a direct order from the Regent to forbid Prince Rupert from trying to raid Jugara itself.

The sieges took several months, but with no hope of resupply, in February 1646 Bidwadjari negotiated terms for the fort garrisons to surrender and be given safe conduct back to the Nyalananga. Jugara lay open to their armies, and the Nangu port-captain – effectively the mayor – proclaimed his recognition of the Regent’s authority over the port.

Two days later, word came that the kingdom of Gutjanal had declared war on the Yadji, and that its troops were advancing toward the gold mines of Djawrit [Bendigo].

* * *

[1] Prince Rupert of the Rhine has been named Duke of Cumberland (as happened historically) to recognise that he is second in the line of succession to the English throne. Historically he was second in succession behind the future Charles II of England; allohistorically he is second behind his elder brother Frederick Henry survived (who historically died in a boating accident in 1629). Frederick Henry has been proclaimed Duke of Munster at the end of the Twenty Years’ War, and is also first in line to the English crown.

[2] The Yadji religion holds that after dying, people fight a final battle against the minions of the Firstborn (an evil god). The victors will go to join the Neverborn in the earth to await resurrection; the losers join the armies of night in the sky, under the Firstborn’s command.

* * *

Thoughts?
 
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