Ark should be in the clear unless it runs into a Japanese submarine, she is slowly pulling away from the point of danger. And unless the Japanese can find her quickly, and get in an air strike before dark, then by the following dawn Ark should be beyond the range of any Japanese air attack. The Japanese also have the problem that they have to make a choice, which of the two British Fleets do they chose to attack. Or do they divide their forces between the two, thus insuring that they do not have overwhelming strength against ether force. The sensible course of action for the Japanese is to forget about Ark for now and concentrate on the two other carriers.
Somerville has to make a difficult decision quickly, does he pull back and keep his powder dry for another day. Or does he take a big risk, and under cover of the dark, head back in, and try to get another strike in on the invasion fleet. If he does and it is successful, the Japanese invasion force becomes a major liability. The Japanese have ether to write it off, or become in-broiled in trying to run predictable convoys to it. This isn’t the slot and the convoys are not the Tokyo Express, they would have to be a major undertaking, that are to a large extent beyond Japanese capability.
With Burma, most of Malaysia and Singapore, parts of the Philippines along with Sumatra still in Allied hands. The Japanese face having their various recent gains destroyed in detail, as the Allies can bring overwhelming strength against any one at a time. They are not linked in a self supporting way, and the Japanese can not support them all. And the Allies are beginning to get their act together, they are only going to get stronger, while the Japanese are facing increasing shortages. While both the British and the Americans are able to replace any losses with better than what was lost. The Japanese will struggle to replace what is lost, and only with what is at best something inferior to what the Allies have.
What is even more interesting is the effect that recent events will have on the post war world. Britain hasn’t been totally embarrassed by the Japanese, and it’s position with its colonial subjects, and Dominion friends destroyed. The feeling that Australia and too a lessor extent New Zealand had post war IOTL, that they had been left out to dry, and that their future lies with closer relations with America. These will not be so prevalent, and the changes in the relationship between Britain and her Dominions will be much slower to degrade.
RR.