Keynes' Cruisers

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

... the Japanese planes radio sets probably didn't reach far enough to get the message that Pearl is angry and alert.

The raid commanders were direct contact with Kido Butai; so was the scout plane that reconned PH an hour before the raid.

December 7, 1941 0845 Central Oahu Devil Dog flight

Hate to say it, but this TL is getting a little too wankish. The Allies are getting essentially all the breaks, including some which make no sense.

If US fighters are "struggling to gain altitude", how are they in position to execute a mass diving attack? I can't believe that much coordination among a heterogenous collection of planes taking off from different bases under attack or heavily damaged, with no central ground control, in their first combat action.

 

[RyderWest]

Also, even though that 11 of the 18 Dauntlessess were wrecked at Wake due to the Nell bomber raid, they still have 7, possible two to three more. And the Wildcats did sink a destroyer with just 4 Wildcats, and 10 are still around....

It seems that the Nell bombers never bothered with the defensive works either.

 

[Ramp-Rat]

So opening rounds in the Far East and Pacific, and points so far are to the Japanese. The Pearl Harbour attack has caused significant damage to the American fleet, remember the Japanese don't know just how successful they were IOTL. Its been costly, but even if they lose a carrier or two, they will judge it worthwhile. In navies dominated by the big gun gang, it's battleships that count, it's the battle line v battle line, that will determine the winner. And they have succeeded in sinking a number and doing major damage to others. Wake Island has in Japanese eyes gone well, the decedent Americans fell for our simple trick, and we destroyed lots of planes.

Malaya, well it was worth a try, but we were up against the British, and they are very different to the Americans. The original model for the IJN was the RN, and the RN were their early mentors, and the Japanese Navy had far more respect for the RN than they did for the USN. Unlike the USN, the RN as had the IJN, fought major fleet actions, using modern warships, Jutland, Tsushima. Wise heads within the Japanese Navy, will nod and say, what did you expect, the British to run away. And when the army gets a bloody nose, the same wise heads, will nod and say. How stupid is the army, they tried it with the Russians, and got a good spanking, and now the same with the British. Who did they think they were fighting, the Chinese, who like snow in the sun, melt and runaway. However, so far things appear to be going roughly to plan, and isn't the first casualty of war the plan.

RR.

 

[RyderWest]

So opening rounds in the Far East and Pacific, and points so far are to the Japanese. The Pearl Harbour attack has caused significant damage to the American fleet, remember the Japanese don't know just how successful they were IOTL. Its been costly, but even if they lose a carrier or two, they will judge it worthwhile. In navies dominated by the big gun gang, it's battleships that count, it's the battle line v battle line, that will determine the winner. And they have succeeded in sinking a number and doing major damage to others. Wake Island has in Japanese eyes gone well, the decedent Americans fell for our simple trick, and we destroyed lots of planes.

Malaya, well it was worth a try, but we were up against the British, and they are very different to the Americans. The original model for the IJN was the RN, and the RN were their early mentors, and the Japanese Navy had far more respect for the RN than they did for the USN. Unlike the USN, the RN as had the IJN, fought major fleet actions, using modern warships, Jutland, Tsushima. Wise heads within the Japanese Navy, will nod and say, what did you expect, the British to run away. And when the army gets a bloody nose, the same wise heads, will nod and say. How stupid is the army, they tried it with the Russians, and got a good spanking, and now the same with the British. Who did they think they were fighting, the Chinese, who like snow in the sun, melt and runaway. However, so far things appear to be going roughly to plan, and isn't the first casualty of war the plan.

RR.

Jesus, I can literally seen the Japanese arrogance in this statement. In a Japanese voice, it stinks of it.

 

[fester]

1130 Honolulu Time

15 Marine Dauntlesses were flying in a tight formation. There was a report of an invasion fleet that was approaching the northern coast. The bombers had 1,000 pound bombs slung underneath their bellies.

Six Wildcats were weaving over their heads. Lt. Jaroschek’s eyes scanned the sky, up, down, left, right and back again. No patch of the sky was left unobserved for more than a few seconds. In his two flights this morning, he had shot down three enemy planes and shared a kill with his wingman in the giant fight just north of the harbor. Smokin Maggie was still treating him well although the ground crews were clucking at all of the nicks and bruises that they would need to repair.

The strike package crossed the coast and headed north, another thirty miles to the sighting and they could begin to exact their revenge.

 

[fester]

December 8, 1941 0625 Clark Field

The air control center was a loud mess. Telephones were ringing, teletypes were clattering and the clerks were being yelled at to make sense of the information. Half a dozen observer posts on the northwestern edge of Luzon had already called in snooper reports. A squadron of P-36 fighters had been dispatched north to hunt for the scouts. So far none of the radar sites had spotted any large attacks. The decision was made to allow the pursuit pilots of several squadrons to get out of their planes and eat breakfast while still being able to scramble in twenty or thirty minutes worth of warning if needed.

 

[fester]

December 8, 1941 0715 North of Kroh, Malaya

Half a dozen Bren carriers led the main body of the advance up the road. So far no resistance had been encountered in the first forty five minutes of the British invasion of Thailand. Two dozen lorries carrying Punjabi infantrymen and then another half dozen lorries pulling mortars, anti-tank guns and a maniacal engineering detachment with more explosives than sense brought up the rear of the columns.

The scouts, in commadeered civilian cars were ranging ahead of the column by ten minutes. Two of the black painted sedans came roaring back. The small village up ahead had a road block. Half a dozen trees were blocking the road and a sign warning of landmines was neatly lettered twenty yards ahead of disturbed dirt. The column pulled to the side of the road and a company of infantry started to march down the road while another company went off the road to flank the village. The engineers unpacked their supplies and went forward to assess the blockage.

 

[fester]

1450 Honolulu Time, 350 miles Northwest of Pearl Harbor

The rapidly withdrawing Japanese carrier group ducked under a cloud line only a few minutes before a Catalina would have spotted them. The Catalina pilot and observers noted a set of wakes and disturbed sea that they called in as a potential contact but the USN could not locate the carriers on their withdrawal. A squadron of B-17s was launched from Hickam at 1545 on an estimated vector in case the Catalina and her compatriots were able to acquire the carriers. The squadron flew until after dark and returned to base without significant incident although the anti-aircraft batteries near the landing pattern opened fire against the engine noises of the lead aircraft during its final approach to land.

 

[fester]

1450 Honolulu Time, 350 miles Northwest of Pearl Harbor

The rapidly withdrawing Japanese carrier group ducked under a cloud line only a few minutes before a Catalina would have spotted them. The Catalina pilot and observers noted a set of wakes and disturbed sea that they called in as a potential contact but the USN could not locate the carriers on their withdrawal. A squadron of B-17s was launched from Hickam at 1545 on an estimated vector in case the Catalina and her compatriots were able to acquire the carriers. The squadron flew until after dark and returned to base without significant incident although the anti-aircraft batteries near the landing pattern opened fire against the engine noises of the lead aircraft during its final approach to land.

I am hoping that I am giving this timeline's version of AH.com enough PODs for years of fun.

 

[Butchpfd]

1450 Honolulu Time, 350 miles Northwest of Pearl Harbor

The rapidly withdrawing Japanese carrier group ducked under a cloud line only a few minutes before a Catalina would have spotted them. The Catalina pilot and observers noted a set of wakes and disturbed sea that they called in as a potential contact but the USN could not locate the carriers on their withdrawal. A squadron of B-17s was launched from Hickam at 1545 on an estimated vector in case the Catalina and her compatriots were able to acquire the carriers. The squadron flew until after dark and returned to base without significant incident although the anti-aircraft batteries near the landing pattern opened fire against the engine noises of the lead aircraft during its final approach to land.

If the PBY found the wakes, all they should have to do is follow the bearing of the wakes, if clouds are too heavy, drop lower. We are now at war, risks are not only acceptable, but necessary. If
To stop PBY the clouds covering the Kido Butai, would have to be a heavy thunderstorm

 

[mudhead]

Malaya, well it was worth a try, but we were up against the British, and they are very different to the Americans. The original model for the IJN was the RN, and the RN were their early mentors, and the Japanese Navy had far more respect for the RN than they did for the USN.

Arthur Marder's Old Friends, New Enemies, which you've no doubt read, is a very good account of this; Vol 2 was completed by Mark Jacobsen and John Horsfield after Marder's death. Short review here.

December 8, 1941 0715 North of Kroh, Malaya

Half a dozen Bren carriers led the main body of the advance up the road. So far no resistance had been encountered in the first forty five minutes of the British invasion of Thailand.

This is crucial: IOTL British forces were hamstrung by the failure to act before the Japanese, who were thereby handed a huge positional advantage.

 

[RyderWest]

Arthur Marder's Old Friends, New Enemies, which you've no doubt read, is a very good account of this; Vol 2 was completed by Mark Jacobsen and John Horsfield after Marder's death. Short review here.

This is crucial: IOTL British forces were hamstrung by the failure to act before the Japanese, who were thereby handed a huge positional advantage.

It seems that the Japanese won't get the drop. They know something is coming. Loss of surprise.

That's part why the invasions were so successful, the element of surprise and the whole laziness.

 

[MageOhki]

Agreed on the planes, but according to Shattered Sword not on the pilots - one of the things I learned was those losses were not bad, and planes lost were replaceable in reasonable time.

The killer at Midway was the carriers of course and also critically the "pit crews" to service the aircraft.

Here its a plane-pilot loss, at least so far . . .

Shattered Sword has issues. No history book or review is accurate, but Shattered Sword pays a bit more attention to aspects the Japanese didn't, and the attention they do pay, is often inaccurate, and uses biases that frankly, while justifiable, overweigh some aspects. In a way, it doesn't matter how good your deck crews are, if your pilots are hilariously outmatched. ZuiZui (or turkey)'s crews were well beyond any reasonable standard of even the 1941 Kido Butai's crews, and yet, made not one dammed bit of difference at the Turkey Shoot, did it?

Thing is, that IIRC, japanese doctrine didn't even realize that ground crews were important. Not just the IJN but IJA too did typically nothing to evacuate such 'second' line troops from exposed positions, or send them on the slowest transport - so a whenever airfield / carrier was lost they'd typically lose all ground crews. For IJN it was worse because it really didn't like mix and matching crews from different ships - this applied to pilots too - so competent ground crews might sit around uselessly on drydocked carrier doing nothing.

It's even worse, when you consider that the USN practiced hard rotational training, and sending not just cadre, but trainers for basic instruction back frequently, across the board. IJN did not, at all. This made a problem (crew replacements and pilot replacements) worse. They also never really modified their programs, just cut it down, instead.

 

[RyderWest]

It's even worse, when you consider that the USN practiced hard rotational training, and sending not just cadre, but trainers for basic instruction back frequently, across the board. IJN did not, at all. This made a problem (crew replacements and pilot replacements) worse. They also never really modified their programs, just cut it down, instead.

Luftwaffe had the same problem too as they never sent their pilots in rotation either. It results in high scoring aces... but once they die they have to start at conscript level all over again.

 

[lgkmas]

Just looking at things and having the devil's advocate hat on.
The Japanese have not done anything to Hawaii when their training exercise in international waters has been unprovokedly attacked by US aircraft! Okay, we know why they were there. But aren't we getting carried away? What justification did those fighters have for attacking the Japanese? I know the Japanese would not have played the poor wronged us card. Or would they?
But the best idea would have been for the fighters to lurk off the flank of the incoming raid, radio a warning to PH and hope the Japanese do something stupid before they enter US territorial waters.
I seem to recollect someone suggesting that the Japanese had to do the first hostile act. Was it MacArthur or Marshall? That would have forced the Japanese hand. And they are really too far into this now to turn back. So just wait for some Bushido inspired son of Nippon to attack the perfectly innocent patrolling US aircraft!

 

[RyderWest]

The Japanese have not done anything to Hawaii when their training exercise in international waters has been unprovokedly attacked by US aircraft!

A so called training excersize heading directly to Hawaii? Find that hard to believe.

What justification did those fighters have for attacking the Japanese?

Unidentified contacts. And the strike group was heading directly to Pearl.

So just wait for some Bushido inspired son of Nippon to attack the perfectly innocent patrolling US aircraft!

They already did. Twice. That was before Cerberus found out with the strike.

 

[Butchpfd]

Just looking at things and having the devil's advocate hat on.
The Japanese have not done anything to Hawaii when their training exercise in international waters has been unprovokedly attacked by US aircraft! Okay, we know why they were there. But aren't we getting carried away? What justification did those fighters have for attacking the Japanese? I know the Japanese would not have played the poor wronged us card. Or would they?
But the best idea would have been for the fighters to lurk off the flank of the incoming raid, radio a warning to PH and hope the Japanese do something stupid before they enter US territorial waters.
I seem to recollect someone suggesting that the Japanese had to do the first hostile act. Was it MacArthur or Marshall? That would have forced the Japanese hand. And they are really too far into this now to turn back. So just wait for some Bushido inspired son of Nippon to attack the perfectly innocent patrolling US aircraft!

You are putting a 21st century spin on an early mid 20th Century situation.. When you come visiting you notify everyone you are coming. Or you arive under very strict protocols. When you aproach another nation's coast or airspace, they have the right to shootand shoot to kill. That was MacArthur's problem he wanted a Japanese first strike casus belli. What he got was his Air Force devistated.

 

[Astrodragon]

In this case, the issue was you have a major fleet, unannounced, heading straight at your main fleet base.
This may not be an attack, but its certainly not friendly.

Ideally, if you spot it you would sit there with planes and ships keeping a close eye on it, and be ready for action. But in 1941, this is very difficult to do with the tech of the day.
Planes don't have all weather capability, or see through cloud (at least not American planes at this time). It would be all too easy to lose the fleet, at which point it turns into wind and launches.
You also know the same people have what looks awfully like landing forces approaching Malaya.

The US response could be considered an overreaction, but given the other options its not an outrageous one.
There is also the realpolitik. Having some planes attack a naval force is fixable by diplomacy, it doesn't have to lead to war unless that's what is wanted. Its not like you went East with 3 million friends on a social visit...

 

[RyderWest]

There is also the realpolitik. Having some planes attack a naval force is fixable by diplomacy, it doesn't have to lead to war unless that's what is wanted. Its not like you went East with 3 million friends on a social visit...

The Japanese pretty much wanted to go to war, and apparently suffered a case of shit to the brain (to quote Jingles) when they somehow decided that they can attack a country without an official DoW and thinking a cutting off negotiation statement counts as one.

 

[steamboy]

The thing is who would even belive it

"We was sending planes to say hello"
"Armed planes."
"Yes."
"With live bombs and torpedoes, and you'd told the pilots where to attack and what to hit."
"...yes."
"And this was..."
"Just..our..way..of....umm..*sweating* saying..hello?"