Japan Blitzes USSR First

[Infinity]

Japan realizes Germany will inevtiably invade the Soviet Union. Japan wants the glory of victory for itself. Japan also realizes that if it leaves its ally alone to fight a war on two fronts, it will surely lose. So Japan decides to take the initiative in attacking the USSR first, and then split it in half with Germany.

Japan succeeds in defeating the Soviet Union's defenses. Just as the western defenses are halfway to reinforce the eastern forces, Germany strikes. The Nazi's have no trouble steamrolling the western defenses that remain. Germany swiftly takes Moscow.

Within days, Great Britain and Germany come to a peace agreement. Great Britain gets to keep its colonies. The French resistance ceases. Both Britain, and France pay debt to cover the loses incurred by Germany. Japan turns its attention China. The U.S, powerless from lack of political support, does not get involved in the war. Japan succeeds in conquering China. Meanwhile, Germany focuses on public works, and a space program. A new era begins.

 

[Color-Copycat]

The Soviet Union's forces in the RFE always possessed overwhelming numerical and qualitative superiority over their Japanese counterparts in Manchuria from the early '30s and onwards. As demonstrated at Khalkhin Gol, Soviet interwar armor and aviation was superior to that of the Japanese, and the imbalance would only grow larger as the Soviets fine-tuned their equipment and tactics with combat experience against the Germans.

At any rate, any first strike against the Soviets was doomed to fail for the Japanese.

 

[Hipsterredneck556]

There is no way in hell that Japan could successfully invade and defeat the USSR in World War Two. End of discussion.

The rest of the scenario you laid out is..umh...interesting.

 

[Fenrir_Angerboda]

Where does Japan get the oil?
How will Japan defeat the same army that has proven itself superior only two years before (assuming that the Japanese attack takes place around the same time as Barbarossa)?
Where does Japan pull the Manpower from?

 

[hugh lupus]

When is this going to happen? Presumably after 1940 but before Barbarossa?
YOU Would need a pod in the 20's at least

 

[Infinity]

When is this going to happen? Presumably after 1940 but before Barbarossa?
YOU Would need a pod in the 20's at least

However long it takes the western Soviet forces to traverse halfway across their country, is the ammount of time Japan will strike prior to the otl German blitz.

 

[Fenrir_Angerboda]

However long it takes the western Soviet forces to traverse halfway across their country, is the ammount of time Japan will strike prior to the otl German blitz.

So basically they're going to have to attack somewhere in 1940.
not even a year after the soviets kicked their ass in Mongolia.

this isn't going to end well for the Japanese.

 

[Color-Copycat]

Significant Soviet forces were in position since well before the Khalkhin Gol confrontations and continued to remain posted to the region well afterwards. It's not like the RFE wasn't garrisoned during the late '30s and early '40s. To the contrary, Stalin kept a huge force there to serve as a deterrent against the Japanese and even refused to withdraw forces from the region even when troop concentrations on the Eastern Front were disastrously low.

 

[Hipsterredneck556]

However long it takes the western Soviet forces to traverse halfway across their country, is the ammount of time Japan will strike prior to the otl German blitz.

ugh...you're scenario is ASB, hoss.

 

[frlmerrin]

1 Soviet forces in RFE more than sufficient to deal with Japanese. No western Soviet forces required
2 Siberian distances huge, beyond Japanese logistics capability.

 

[Hipsterredneck556]

1 Soviet forces in RFE more than sufficient to deal with Japanese. No western Soviet forces required
2 Siberian distances huge, beyond Japanese logistics capability.

3. Superior Russian equipment

 

[Shaby]

3. Superior Russian equipment

4. Superior Soviet doctrine

 

[Infinity]

So basically they're going to have to attack somewhere in 1940.
not even a year after the soviets kicked their ass in Mongolia.

this isn't going to end well for the Japanese.

Whether Japan wins, or loses, they will make it easier for Germany to take Moscow. Also, Japan's airforce should not be underestimated. Japan, and Germany combined, would have had overwhelming air supperiority over the USSR.

In the otl, one of the reasons the German blitz was initially successful, was because the USSR feared a Japanese attack, and Stalin hesitated to send his eastern forces to reinforce the west. Considering Japan had a more advanced air force than the USSR, Stalin's fear was not unwaranted.

 

[Color-Copycat]

OP, I hate to reiterate like a broken record, but have you ever heard of Khalkhin Gol?

 

[RRA]

Significant Soviet forces were in position since well before the Khalkhin Gol confrontations and continued to remain posted to the region well afterwards. It's not like the RFE wasn't garrisoned during the late '30s and early '40s. To the contrary, Stalin kept a huge force there to serve as a deterrent against the Japanese and even refused to withdraw forces from the region even when troop concentrations on the Eastern Front were disastrously low.

Which I believe was why they decided to invade southward, and confront the Eagle instead of the Bear.

 

[Hipsterredneck556]

The Soviet Air Force wasn't exactly anything to laugh at either.

 

[Color-Copycat]

About the only thing Soviet forces in the RFE couldn't do was launch an amphibious invasion of Hokkaido.

 

[hugh lupus]

For this to work you would need a major shift in Japanese policy which drags it back away from the goals it had set itself from say 1940 on [and I'm being kind here] IJN/IJA politics would need to change in outlook and tempo. Russia is VAST so yes by all means invade .Japan is defeated [again] the government in Tokoyo falls I imagine. Where that would lead is interesting but not under discussion here.
The USSR still ends up in Berlin though.

 

[Infinity]

OP, I hate to reiterate like a broken record, but have you ever heard of Khalkhin Gol?

This would be on a much larger scale. Also, Japan does not have to win. Serving as a distraction is sufficient for the USSR to fall.

Although, you might argue Soviet tanks would overpower Japanese tanks. The same argument would have been made in favor of a French victory over Germany. Yet air supperiority wins every time. The newly built Zero fighter would tip the tide in Japan's favor.

 

[Kongzilla]

Whether Japan wins, or loses, they will make it easier for Germany to take Moscow. Also, Japan's airforce should not be underestimated. Japan, and Germany combined, would have had overwhelming air supperiority over the USSR.

In the otl, one of the reasons the German blitz was initially successful, was because the USSR feared a Japanese attack, and Stalin hesitated to send his eastern forces to reinforce the west. Considering Japan had a more advanced air force than the USSR, Stalin's fear was not unwaranted.

By the time the Germans manage to take Baku, the Japanese are going to be oil starved. If the Japanese attacked at the same moment the Germans did it would probably be even harder on the Germans since the Japanese will be defeated early and the Soviet forces stationed there might get to Moscow before they did OTL.