Hi folks
Thanks for a lot of positive comments. I like to write 'em and if you like to read 'em - I can't ask for more
re divebombers:
The IJN (and USN) carriers had their armour deck below the hangar, which gave advantages in construction and stability, but disadvantages in withstanding bombattack. With good damage control the ship could however be kept afloat after even heavy damage. The IJN never really excelled in damage control though and I could imagine four planes making four hits sinking four CV's - although we're out in the very flat end of the bell curve.
Two USN CV's would in 1940 probably have something like 4 squadrons of divebombers onboard with a total of 40-50 planes. If achieving surprise a well led attack by that many planes could certainly sink four CV's. Half that number with the determination of the guys of this TL would have a good chance.
I imagine a Midway like scenario, where the first IJN attack wave has returned and are refueling on the decks when the US divebombers attack. The US planes have left the US carriers at about the same time as the first IJN wave, but as the USN planes has zig-zagged a lot to find the IJN CV's they arrive later and with almost empty fuel tanks. You can say their motto is: Don't mess with guys with nothing left to loose!
Re. Lend lease:
I'm sure the Italian will be allowed to buy anything they want and can pay for, but I'm not sure of a lend-lease like the OTL one with GB. First Italy is not at war with Japan and USA is not at war with Germany, and second I'm not sure if Italy has bases USA will be interested in. But I'm sure some favourable long-term financing can be arranged. There were a lot of Italian voters in USA. But if/when USA enteres the war against Germany - a lot will be changed.
Re. Battle of the Atlantic
Will basically be the same with German access to French ports. French subs might substitue Italians. The RN will be much less strained, as the Med. is now a own backyard. But the Med. Fleet will not be worth much gainst U-boats in the Atlantic, but be very handy in the Far East. In short the RN will still have a crisis in the Atlantic until enough escorts and long tange patrol planes are available.
Re Yugoslavia
You are probably right LordKalvan about the Italians and the Serbs not being natural born allies, and that the Croats and Italians had a lot of connections (Ustasja etc. (sp?)). My basic inspiration was the unstable political conditions in Yugoslavia, which I guess had to do with the classical Croat/Serbian conflict. In OTL the British staged a coup against a pro German government, leading to the German invasion in 1941. My idea was to have the Germans stage a coup against a pro-British/Italian government leading to an Italian/British invasion followed by a German invasion and declaration of war against Italy. Yugoslavia would certainly contain conflicting Italian and German interests and be a potential cause for war.
France could provide such a reason too, but I think the Italians would be more prone to respect Germans claims of "my prey" as the Germans hunted it down all by themselves.
I think the weakest point in my TL is the Italians entering into the Yugoslavian adventure at all. It should be clear to them that this would be very likely to mean war with Germany, and after handling France Germany will have a very frigthening aura. But perhaps some inflated Italian self-confidence after the successes in NA and misunderstanding German signals - has been seen before.
re British plans
The British are generally confident. The situation in the Atlantic is serious, but basically the British Empire is well defended and growing stronger. But over a drink in the club it is often discussed how heaven sent the Italians were. If, God forbid it, the Italians had been on German-Japanese side, it would have been extremly difficult to fight in the Far East, or even in Egypt, and that would have meant the end of the Empire! That usually has even the most stiff-upper-lipped Gentlemen shiver and order another drink.
In Europe the plan is to keep the Italians happy and blockade Germany, the British do remember how starved the Germans were in 1918, and then they even had dealt with the Russians.
The obvious need for land troops and tactical airforce in Italy and the Far East was the reason behind Harris of Bomber Command being sacked in late 1940. Everybody got really bored of his silly plans about using most of GB's war effort to build hordes of expensive four engined bombers, when it was obvious that it was Divisions and fighterbombers that was needed! So Harris got a desk (chairborne) at the "Department for Tailgunners" and Airmarshall John Doe got Bomber Command. He soon caught interest in a private project about building a wooden plane utilising the skilled labour in the furniture industry. The new plane soon became a great asset in GB's war effort, doing service as bomber, fighterbomber, naval attack and escort fighter. John Doe got a Lordship, but was mainly known as "Lord of the Mosquitoes".
In the Far East the pre war plan was dusted off. This meant trade war on Japan with a strong sub fleet and pushing back the Japanese from the SW. First Hong Kong was to be liberated and thereafter Formosa, while the Chinese were to be supported as much as possible. It was considered to deploy largescale GB/US troops in China, but generally it worked OK just to keep the Chinese troops well equipped and supported by Anglo-Saxon airpower.
Re. German attack on Russia
The attack takes the Russian by surprise and gains much ground in 1941. The Japanese are not exactly as lucky in Siberia, but at least tie down a lot of troops. In December 41 the Germans almost take Moscow, but have to stop to regain breath. They experience a very cold but quiet winter, but in early spring of 42 the British and Italians launch an offensive into S. France. The French panic and the Germans have to redirect troops intended for the 1942 spring offensive to S. France. The British and Italians are stopped, but the German forces suffer heavy losses from the RAF and Italian Air Force, who show up in a strength the Germans had never imagined.
Re. US involvement
In the first year or two (US in pacific war in 1940) the USA was handicapped by naval and army programmes not in full evolutions yet, but her aircraft industry was spitting out planes in record numbers. Many Americans grumbled about feeling junior to the Limeys, but the main US interests in China were well taken care of and the British recognised, that without the huge US 8th Airforce in China the Japanese would still be holding China in a firm grib.
By spring 1942 the pressure from Italian lobbyists and numerous incidents in the Atlantic finally has USA declare war on Germany (and France), and Italy as a gesture declares war on Japan.
Re. Italian status
Italian industry is in full blossom utilising all the imported raw materials and design co-operation with the Anglo-Saxons. License produced Merlins power fine Italian designs like the Macchi 202 and Fiat G55, which in great numbers are more than a challenge to the Germans. The flimsy Italian tanks of 1940 are long gone, and a 75mm armed tank looking like a face lifted Crusader is in production, and with a reliability the British only can envy. Navally the Italians are building escorts to assist the British in the Atlantic, but not many are ready by 1942. Next it is tried to give the existing ships longer range, by extening fuel tanks into void hull compartments, as the Italians would like to take part in a future Pacific campaign. So far the Italian squadron sent to the Far East has done OK however in operating from French Indochina/Hong Kong and up along the Chinese Coast.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard