1,600 artillery pieces concentrated at Halfaya against 120 British guns is going to give them a lot of flexibility to use guns forward...
How many of those could actually do anything to a Matilda? How many of those that could could be aimed to hit them?
while having 1,249 aircraft for use against the British; even if the artillery is totally ineffective bomb dropping aircraft, including dive capable biplanes, are going to be able to stop the British tanks if need be.
I'd have to check the aircraft of the various contingents, but I don't think the result would be good for the Italians, the RAF can operation from rail-supplied bases at Mersa Matruh, while the Regia Aeronautica is operating from truck-supplied ones which means that the British have the logistical advantage here.
That's just fine then. The British sit back and wait for resources. When do they turn up, mid-1941? Battleaxe had less troops used than Compass. Really until Italian East Africa is dealt with the British don't have the strength to push the Italians out of the Pass and even then it may well take until late 1941 to amass enough resources like they did for Operation Crusader.
You realise that if the Italians don't attack then the British likely won't either right? Remember, with no African front sucking up supplies the British can send troops and equipment to Malaya, possibly preventing the Japanese capture there and considerably shortening the war.
Fair enough; the Italians would eventually attack when they could build up enough supply and rail support to successfully invade Egypt, especially when Greece is over and all supplies could come to them.
Hm, maybe you've been missing the fact that the Italians have little or no rail capacity, and limited port capacity. Maybe with a lot of work they might be ready by '45, but the situation will have been decided long before that.
or 6. Balbo lives and resists pressure to invade once the Italians cannot supply an advance that keeps them in contact with the British, instead building up his supply lines first.
That's a wonderful idea, but one that doesn't really fit with the observed actions, because the totally inadequate ports and rail network ought to have been replaced a long time before.
Building up the Benghazi rail line was in progress pre-war, just wait for it to be finished; the British were able to lay much more rail in several months during their offensives, so its not hard for the Italians to just continue their work to like Tripoli to Benghazi by rail and make an offensive possible by mid-1941.
Before or after the Italians get caught up in Barbarossa?
Well then hey are in a catch 22 and are better off for staying on the defensive and letting the British attack them first. Overall they would come out ahead by tying British forces down in Africa, while not losing all those men and that equipment in 1940-41. By mid/late 1941 when the British do go on the offensive the logistics upgrade enable the Italians to fight far more effectively and prevent the British from just running away with the campaign.
Except that the Italians would need a comprehensive industrial upgrade at home before they had a hope of matching the British, and even then, a rail line is only one link in the chain, port capacity is another limitation, and naval power is another, all of which is on the British side ATM.
So Africa bogs down until one side or the other decides to attack; by 1943 the British will have the ability to dominate, but until then it can be held with existing resources and perhaps even allow for the attack on Malta in 1941 or 1942.
Uh, nope, that ship's sailed.
Germany commits nothing until 1943 or never, effectively waiting until Sicily is threatened to intervene. The British in the meantime don't gain the necessary combat experience fighting Rommel, so when they overrun the Italians and finally start fighting the Germans again in Sicily they may have some trouble, same with the US if they don't fight the Germans in Tunisia.
In the meantime, Malaya holds out against the Japanese, which sees them paying a much higher toll, and falling out a lot sooner. Actually, come to think of it, they might just bow out early if it becomes obvious in 1942 that the British are putting up a fight.