International Pressure and Perception
After the siege of Adrianople, which was finished by April 1913 due to starvation and news of an armistice, the Ottomans lost all hopes of continuing the war, with the threat to Constantinople renewed and the Bulgarians continued their advance. The Ottomans, who had barely retaken Constantinople's European portion except for the smashed defences captured by the Bulgarians, were worried about a resumption in conflict. A failed counteroffensive against the Greek-Bulgarian positions outside the city after the armistice expired left the city vulnerable to an offensive, but the Russian Black Sea Fleet's attack more than 4 months ago, prohibited an exploitation of the Ottomans' vulnerability, even though defence positions could be manned by Muslim Caucasians and Turkish males in their teens and older years from the city inhabitants and refugees. What wasn't known was the damage inflicted on the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the arrival of a second submarine in the Dardenelles. The Bulgarian 4th Army was retained in Bulgaria as reserve to counter an invasion and keep foreign opinions friendly. The Ottomans might break out to relieve their capital city, but Greek naval support, starvation and foreign intervention would finish the siege, if not the war and Ottomans. Besides, friction over the Serbian participation during the war and the need to retake Macedonia would restrict the Bulgarian Army's potential.
The great foreign powers were also tired of the Balkan fighting. After a last advance that was stopped by the sight of Russian warships and Ottoman artillery, a final armistice was signed on 30 April 1913 and due to be in effect on 1 May. The recently completed Greek submarine was ordered to sink any Russian warship that attempted to bombard the Bulgarians and Greeks. Russian submarine losses were minimal, despite the patrolling over the straits. The submarines targeted Ottoman ships while the surface forces picked on the weaker and confrontational Greek Navy, the Bulgarian Navy being too small to be an issue other than sending light forces. One thing that benefitted the Russians was the fact the Greek sailors didn't shell the Russians due to obsolete ships, reluctance to fight their 'assisting big brother from the north' and logistical issues.
The Russians were not quite the backstabbers as they were. In fact, several shells from the Russian Navy hit Ottoman buildings and ships at Constantinople, although these incidents might be accidental. Russia had also supported the formation of the Balkan League to counter Austria-Hungary and wreck the Ottomans, but the Bulgarian and Greek demands for Thrace and especially Constantinople were enough for selfishly greedy Imperial Russia that it sent the Black Sea Fleet on the mission.
France felt it was not ready for a war against Germany in 1912 and took a totally negative position against the war to prevent German intervention and a world war or even a war involving Germany [because France had to fight Germany successfully or it would lose, with unpredictably bad consequences for Russia and the Balkans]. Its ally, Russia, had been informed that it would not be involved in a potential war between Russia and Austro-Hungary if it was rooted in the Balkan League's actions, unless Germany and/or the world was [were] involved. The French failed to obtain British participation in a common intervention to avert the Balkan War, however, despite Britain's Triple Entente alliance to France.
Although the British Empire preferred the Ottoman Empire's territorial intergrity for political reasons [to preserve European peace, enable an alliance and reconciliation with the declining power and secure the empire through the Suez Canal's and colonial inhabitant security], it was an ally of Russia and would have selected Italy over the Ottomans [or Russians when Constantinople comes into play]. However, Greek and Bulgarian attacks on Constantinople and diplomatic negotiations for belligerence were encouraged to counter Italian, Ottoman or Russian influence, even with its promises to Russia. [The Ottomans were too weak and dependent on Germany to be reliable, besides being a long term enemy of Russia and Italy was too powerful and German friendly, albeit not with Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans. Russian capture of Constantinople was a long term issue feared by the British.]
Austria-Hungary wanted an exit through the Adriatic, competition with the Ottomans and Russia over the Balkans and to threaten Italy, if not the Mediterranean. It was opposed to the Balkan states increasing their strength at the expense of the Ottomans. At the same time, the Habsburg empire had internal conflicts with the significant Slavic citizens that opposed German–Hungarian control of the multinational empire's territories where they lived. Serbia, whose aspirations in the direction of the Austrian-held Bosnia were apparent, was considered an enemy and the main puppet of Russian manipulations that were behind the anger of Austria's Slav citizens. But the Habsburgs failed to achieve German backup for a firm reaction. That said, it was obvious that Austria-Hungary would fight for the Ottomans [with possible German help] against expansionist Italy, ambitious Balkan states and hateful Russia.
Italy was ambivalent about the issue, like Britain. Russia was a useful ally against the Ottomans and their major enemies. But they were wary of Russian ambitions into the Mediterranean against their empires and world peace. That said, an independent Albania and a strong Bulgaria at the expense of Serbia, Greece, the Ottomans, Russia and the Triple Alliance [without Italy] were the shared ideas of both countries.
The final and [second] most powerful power, Germany, informed Austria-Hungary that it would be willing to support its ally [Austria] in the event of a world war, but the Austrians hesitated despite the most obvious choice of sides the Austrians could select. Austrian decisions were reinforced by a telegram sent after the Imperial War Council of 8 December 1912, which declared that a world war in 1913 was negative for Germany, occurring at an unopportune time. When the Habsburgs knew about this, they decided of Austro-Hungarian neutrality and no actions were taken against the Balkan states, especially after pressuring the Serbs and Montenegrins to withdraw from Albania in October 1912. Although Kaiser Wilhelm II preferred Ottoman survival for actions against the Entente, a strong Bulgaria that could compete with Russia and threaten Serbia was also in his mindset and he supported the Bulgarians with rewards of their intended [First] Treaty of San Stefano gains. This was encouraged by the German king, the pro- German and Austrian orientation of the government, military and people and the imminent death or ruin of the Ottomans.
However, the war was bad enough, especially for the Ottomans, and it was time to sign the peace treaty near Constantinople. This was at the same village [San Stefano] a peace treaty was signed 35 years ago that brought the Ottoman decline, dictatorship of Sultan Abdul Hamid II, independence for Bulgaria and Russian expansion, along with the recent wars. The peace treaty was supported by every European great power as each one of them was fearful of war, the Ottomans' collapse, disruption of European power and the expansion of Balkan states. Conflicting interests regarding the side to be supported, even with neutrality, would encourage the decision for peace.
After the siege of Adrianople, which was finished by April 1913 due to starvation and news of an armistice, the Ottomans lost all hopes of continuing the war, with the threat to Constantinople renewed and the Bulgarians continued their advance. The Ottomans, who had barely retaken Constantinople's European portion except for the smashed defences captured by the Bulgarians, were worried about a resumption in conflict. A failed counteroffensive against the Greek-Bulgarian positions outside the city after the armistice expired left the city vulnerable to an offensive, but the Russian Black Sea Fleet's attack more than 4 months ago, prohibited an exploitation of the Ottomans' vulnerability, even though defence positions could be manned by Muslim Caucasians and Turkish males in their teens and older years from the city inhabitants and refugees. What wasn't known was the damage inflicted on the Russian Black Sea Fleet and the arrival of a second submarine in the Dardenelles. The Bulgarian 4th Army was retained in Bulgaria as reserve to counter an invasion and keep foreign opinions friendly. The Ottomans might break out to relieve their capital city, but Greek naval support, starvation and foreign intervention would finish the siege, if not the war and Ottomans. Besides, friction over the Serbian participation during the war and the need to retake Macedonia would restrict the Bulgarian Army's potential.
The great foreign powers were also tired of the Balkan fighting. After a last advance that was stopped by the sight of Russian warships and Ottoman artillery, a final armistice was signed on 30 April 1913 and due to be in effect on 1 May. The recently completed Greek submarine was ordered to sink any Russian warship that attempted to bombard the Bulgarians and Greeks. Russian submarine losses were minimal, despite the patrolling over the straits. The submarines targeted Ottoman ships while the surface forces picked on the weaker and confrontational Greek Navy, the Bulgarian Navy being too small to be an issue other than sending light forces. One thing that benefitted the Russians was the fact the Greek sailors didn't shell the Russians due to obsolete ships, reluctance to fight their 'assisting big brother from the north' and logistical issues.
The Russians were not quite the backstabbers as they were. In fact, several shells from the Russian Navy hit Ottoman buildings and ships at Constantinople, although these incidents might be accidental. Russia had also supported the formation of the Balkan League to counter Austria-Hungary and wreck the Ottomans, but the Bulgarian and Greek demands for Thrace and especially Constantinople were enough for selfishly greedy Imperial Russia that it sent the Black Sea Fleet on the mission.
France felt it was not ready for a war against Germany in 1912 and took a totally negative position against the war to prevent German intervention and a world war or even a war involving Germany [because France had to fight Germany successfully or it would lose, with unpredictably bad consequences for Russia and the Balkans]. Its ally, Russia, had been informed that it would not be involved in a potential war between Russia and Austro-Hungary if it was rooted in the Balkan League's actions, unless Germany and/or the world was [were] involved. The French failed to obtain British participation in a common intervention to avert the Balkan War, however, despite Britain's Triple Entente alliance to France.
Although the British Empire preferred the Ottoman Empire's territorial intergrity for political reasons [to preserve European peace, enable an alliance and reconciliation with the declining power and secure the empire through the Suez Canal's and colonial inhabitant security], it was an ally of Russia and would have selected Italy over the Ottomans [or Russians when Constantinople comes into play]. However, Greek and Bulgarian attacks on Constantinople and diplomatic negotiations for belligerence were encouraged to counter Italian, Ottoman or Russian influence, even with its promises to Russia. [The Ottomans were too weak and dependent on Germany to be reliable, besides being a long term enemy of Russia and Italy was too powerful and German friendly, albeit not with Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans. Russian capture of Constantinople was a long term issue feared by the British.]
Austria-Hungary wanted an exit through the Adriatic, competition with the Ottomans and Russia over the Balkans and to threaten Italy, if not the Mediterranean. It was opposed to the Balkan states increasing their strength at the expense of the Ottomans. At the same time, the Habsburg empire had internal conflicts with the significant Slavic citizens that opposed German–Hungarian control of the multinational empire's territories where they lived. Serbia, whose aspirations in the direction of the Austrian-held Bosnia were apparent, was considered an enemy and the main puppet of Russian manipulations that were behind the anger of Austria's Slav citizens. But the Habsburgs failed to achieve German backup for a firm reaction. That said, it was obvious that Austria-Hungary would fight for the Ottomans [with possible German help] against expansionist Italy, ambitious Balkan states and hateful Russia.
Italy was ambivalent about the issue, like Britain. Russia was a useful ally against the Ottomans and their major enemies. But they were wary of Russian ambitions into the Mediterranean against their empires and world peace. That said, an independent Albania and a strong Bulgaria at the expense of Serbia, Greece, the Ottomans, Russia and the Triple Alliance [without Italy] were the shared ideas of both countries.
The final and [second] most powerful power, Germany, informed Austria-Hungary that it would be willing to support its ally [Austria] in the event of a world war, but the Austrians hesitated despite the most obvious choice of sides the Austrians could select. Austrian decisions were reinforced by a telegram sent after the Imperial War Council of 8 December 1912, which declared that a world war in 1913 was negative for Germany, occurring at an unopportune time. When the Habsburgs knew about this, they decided of Austro-Hungarian neutrality and no actions were taken against the Balkan states, especially after pressuring the Serbs and Montenegrins to withdraw from Albania in October 1912. Although Kaiser Wilhelm II preferred Ottoman survival for actions against the Entente, a strong Bulgaria that could compete with Russia and threaten Serbia was also in his mindset and he supported the Bulgarians with rewards of their intended [First] Treaty of San Stefano gains. This was encouraged by the German king, the pro- German and Austrian orientation of the government, military and people and the imminent death or ruin of the Ottomans.
However, the war was bad enough, especially for the Ottomans, and it was time to sign the peace treaty near Constantinople. This was at the same village [San Stefano] a peace treaty was signed 35 years ago that brought the Ottoman decline, dictatorship of Sultan Abdul Hamid II, independence for Bulgaria and Russian expansion, along with the recent wars. The peace treaty was supported by every European great power as each one of them was fearful of war, the Ottomans' collapse, disruption of European power and the expansion of Balkan states. Conflicting interests regarding the side to be supported, even with neutrality, would encourage the decision for peace.
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