Is there a plausible TL where Japan attacks USA before 1939?

[stjernkjempe]

I have two questions. I tried to use the search function to answer them but I had no luck to find the answer in the amount of threads about ww2 there were.

First question. Is there a plausible scenario of Japan going to war whit USA before 1939 but after the start of the second Sino Japanese war? It should preferably be scenario of a war of aggression where Japan attacks USA.

The second question is how this would change the mentality in USA whit a clear war before ww2?

Some other questions that crops up is how this would butterfly things in Europe & Asia and what what cultural changes there is in USA and Asia post war?

 

[nbcman]

Search for Panay incident

 

[stjernkjempe]

Search for Panay incident

Sinking that riverboat and behaving diplomatic stupid after did not make USA start any war whit Japan, it were clear that Japan did not seek confrontation and American public didn’t want any war to punish the Japanese for shooting at a riverboat. I’m searching for a scenario where Japan actively starts a war whit USA whit some goals and war aims.

 

[MattII]

Japanese refusal to acknowledge wrongdoing with regards to the Panay incident triggers a drop in temperature in relations, after which each bad move by the Japanese digs them deeper and deeper into a hole. I don't know what the actual spark would be though, maybe an American diplomat is killed in one of the bombings and the Japanese refuse to apologise, which leads to the Americans finally blocking the Japanese imports.

 

[stjernkjempe]

Japanese refusal to acknowledge wrongdoing with regards to the Panay incident triggers a drop in temperature in relations, after which each bad move by the Japanese digs them deeper and deeper into a hole. I don't know what the actual spark would be though, maybe an American diplomat is killed in one of the bombings and the Japanese refuse to apologise, which leads to the Americans finally blocking the Japanese imports.

Panyan incident is not going to lead to a war. The incident was as bad as it were and feelings in USA were as hot as it would get. Even whit a news reel of Japanese attack there would be an isolationistic majority in US congress. I would be uncharacteristic of the Japanese to behave like oafs in the diplomatic rooms and the most the incident could lead to is embargoes that is rather one sided as while the Dutch, French and British might be persuaded to follow bye USA the Soviet would not adhere to them as they proven whit Italy and Germany before.

While I have been looking in to the Panyan incident before it is not the key to set in motion a Japanese attack upon USA. Embargoes could be the way like IOTL but then they have to see the other European powers as week and unlikely to involve themselves in a struggle against USA and they have to believe USA can’t stomach a prolonged war whit Japan (like IOTL). The POD needs to be earlier for this to fall in place before 1939. Besides it USA starts a war over the Panyan incident it’s different from Japan starting a war of aggression against USA (the thing I were searching for in my op).

The march 15 incident of 1928 and april 16 incident of 1929 had eliminated the socialist and communists from Japanese politics. This could be used as PODs for more internal fear of Communism and for the young officers to see the Japanese government as weaker so it falls faster to the militarists. Some bigger political turmoil around the universal male suffrage laws in 1925 could also be a good POD. This could make the Sakurakai movement form earlier and lead to earlier political strife that ultimately leads to the same faulty reasoning that lead Japan to war whit USA.

There is also PODs in china that could start the second Sino-Japanese war earlier and give the militarists more power and isolate Japan internationally earlier.

But I was looking for plausible ways for this to happen.

 

[HMS Warspite]

Japan was not up to such a radical move prior to 1939. Politically and military, Japan needed more riping to enter war against a serious opponent, like the USA. Geberal Tojo still needed time to evolve into a sort of his final role as Prime Minister, with almost dictator like powers, just theoretically junior to the Emperor only. His post as Prime Minsiter started on the 17th of Ocober 1941, though he also maintanied his post as Minster of the Army at the same time, combining the two into a deadly and fatal coctail of power.

Though the Attack on the US Pacific Fleet had been suggested and theorized earlier, the final move to the actual thing was after the rise of Tojo, as he directly ordered the launch of the hostillities, with the already prepared warplan, that so far had been just a theory mainly, just as most other warplans, like Plan Orange and so on basically were.

 

[Astrodragon]

I could see the Panay incident as escalating in the right circumstances.
Something else hapenning, the Japanese not showing remorse (taking too long too, anyway), the US media getting more virulent so the US is pressured into some sort of action (probably banning of items like scrap metal and oil, sort of 1941 come early).

Japan, despite not being ready, cannot stand the loss of face, and it all escalates from there.

It requires a considerable amount of diplomatic and governmental stupidity between Japan and the USA, but that wasnt lacking in OTL either...

 

[stjernkjempe]

Japan was not up to such a radical move prior to 1939. Politically and military, Japan needed more riping to enter war against a serious opponent, like the USA. Geberal Tojo still needed time to evolve into a sort of his final role as Prime Minister, with almost dictator like powers, just theoretically junior to the Emperor only. His post as Prime Minsiter started on the 17th of Ocober 1941, though he also maintanied his post as Minster of the Army at the same time, combining the two into a deadly and fatal coctail of power.

Though the Attack on the US Pacific Fleet had been suggested and theorized earlier, the final move to the actual thing was after the rise of Tojo, as he directly ordered the launch of the hostillities, with the already prepared warplan, that so far had been just a theory mainly, just as most other warplans, like Plan Orange and so on basically were.

I outline one take on how to radicalize Japan in the answer to MatII. As long as you don’t say Tojo is the only person that ever could have lead Japan in the direction of war whit USA there should be plenty of options to choose from the Kōdōha (imperial way movement). There should be plenty of PODs to derail the Taishō democracy and impose a radical military rule earlier.

 

[stjernkjempe]

I could see the Panay incident as escalating in the right circumstances.
Something else hapenning, the Japanese not showing remorse (taking too long too, anyway), the US media getting more virulent so the US is pressured into some sort of action (probably banning of items like scrap metal and oil, sort of 1941 come early).

Japan, despite not being ready, cannot stand the loss of face, and it all escalates from there.

It requires a considerable amount of diplomatic and governmental stupidity between Japan and the USA, but that wasnt lacking in OTL either...

Could you outline the circumstances? I don’t disagree about it leading to an embargo or other stupidity but I can’t see war breaking out over it as USA is way too isolationistic and Japan don’t actively seek war whit USA.

 

[HMS Warspite]

I outline one take on how to radicalize Japan in the answer to MatII. As long as you don’t say Tojo is the only person that ever could have lead Japan in the direction of war whit USA there should be plenty of options to choose from the Kōdōha (imperial way movement). There should be plenty of PODs to derail the Taishō democracy and impose a radical military rule earlier.

One of the crucial things in Japanese history was the rise of the radical and nationalisitic movement, which primarily existed in the Army, not the navy or other branches of the Japanese military. The civillian population was left out of it. Japanese politics of the pre WW2 period were known to have some weak spots in its structure, notably the selfgoverning structures in the Defense, loyal only to the Emperor, while superior to the Civil Government. As long as the two competed with eachother, it was not that bad. (Though it was bad for military performance when actually at war.) The problem was that the Navy was lead by people schooled in disciplne and western model command, while the Army was a decendant of the old Feodal Shogun area, with the known Samurai mentality. Mixed with strong Nationalistic doctrine and a wish to conquer neighbouring lands, starting with Korea, but focussed mostly on China later on, the mixture of Army Nationalism became explosive. Tojo was just the leader of this group in the early 40's, but basically a product of his time.

 

[MattII]

Panyan incident is not going to lead to a war. The incident was as bad as it were and feelings in USA were as hot as it would get. Even whit a news reel of Japanese attack there would be an isolationistic majority in US congress.

Read again, I never said the Panay incident would spark war, only that it would be the first step down the slippery slope leading to embargoes similar to the OTL ones that sparked conflict.

 

[stjernkjempe]

Read again, I never said the Panay incident would spark war, only that it would be the first step down the slippery slope leading to embargoes similar to the OTL ones that sparked conflict.

I’m sorry English is only my third language. As I outlined even if it leads to an embargo there is not a sure thing the other colonial powers follow and Soviet will not as it needs the hard currency. Now even if a encirclement on Japanese trade could be imposed like the IOTL oil embargo there is no way any “sane” Japanese government would let this happen whiteout attempting to find a solution through at least one or more of the different powers. If nothing else both Italy and Germany might be willing to sell to them by proxy even if it’s more expensive. So in the period of 1937-39 there are too many options to circumvent a trade embargo and before 1941 there were a possibility of trade between Soviet and Japan that made embargos hard to enforce.

I’m sorry I didn’t outline why I felt this where not a good POD earlier.

 

[stjernkjempe]

One of the crucial things in Japanese history was the rise of the radical and nationalisitic movement, which primarily existed in the Army, not the navy or other branches of the Japanese military. The civillian population was left out of it. Japanese politics of the pre WW2 period were known to have some weak spots in its structure, notably the selfgoverning structures in the Defense, loyal only to the Emperor, while superior to the Civil Government. As long as the two competed with eachother, it was not that bad. (Though it was bad for military performance when actually at war.) The problem was that the Navy was lead by people schooled in disciplne and western model command, while the Army was a decendant of the old Feodal Shogun area, with the known Samurai mentality. Mixed with strong Nationalistic doctrine and a wish to conquer neighbouring lands, starting with Korea, but focussed mostly on China later on, the mixture of Army Nationalism became explosive. Tojo was just the leader of this group in the early 40's, but basically a product of his time.

Yes this I knew already. I’m looking for a plausible way to get this potent mix of crazy to boil a decade earlier to make it plausible for Japan to actually outright attack USA before ww2 and then I would like to look at the butterflies that come from this.

I haven’t found any good information in this regard on the board whit the search function and it seems like most posters spends a lot of time trying to outline how Japan could avoid a war whit USA. I’m looking for the reverse where they steam right ahead into the brick wall earlier. It should have profound effects on culture and world politics if this happens outside the conflict called ww2.

 

[HMS Warspite]

Yes this I knew already. I’m looking for a plausible way to get this potent mix of crazy to boil a decade earlier to make it plausible for Japan to actually outright attack USA before ww2 and then I would like to look at the butterflies that come from this.

I haven’t found any good information in this regard on the board whit the search function and it seems like most posters spends a lot of time trying to outline how Japan could avoid a war whit USA. I’m looking for the reverse where they steam right ahead into the brick wall earlier. It should have profound effects on culture and world politics if this happens outside the conflict called ww2.

It might be quite difficult, as the Japanese Nation was booming quite well in the 20's and 30's, so there realy would not have been a sollid reason for agression yet. Only if there was something bad happening at the same time, though that would demand a much larger scale of events prior to the outbreak of hostillities. (Perhaps not even restricted to Japan alone, but more likely a much more hostile attitude from the suggested opponents of Japan (Primarily USA in this case). In such an event, the USA would more likely be the agressor, as it had been in the mid 19th century, with its Peary White Ships incident in Japan.

 

[Astrodragon]

I dont think its likely Panay would lead to a war, but its a plausible POD. Leading to embargoes, trade wars, Japan getting all huffy about face, and a war (especially if more 'incidents' take place). Maybe the US intelligence finding out (erroneously or not) Panay was done with government approval.
Its probably the only likely POD for a war earlier than the OTL one; until things changed in 1940 Japan was looking at a much longer timescale to challenge the US in the Pacific.

 

[MattII]

I’m sorry English is only my third language. As I outlined even if it leads to an embargo there is not a sure thing the other colonial powers follow and Soviet will not as it needs the hard currency. Now even if a encirclement on Japanese trade could be imposed like the IOTL oil embargo there is no way any “sane” Japanese government would let this happen whiteout attempting to find a solution through at least one or more of the different powers. If nothing else both Italy and Germany might be willing to sell to them by proxy even if it’s more expensive. So in the period of 1937-39 there are too many options to circumvent a trade embargo and before 1941 there were a possibility of trade between Soviet and Japan that made embargos hard to enforce.

Well oil isn't the only thing that can be embargoed, rubber's a biggie too, and only the imperial powers have access to it, so the Soviets can either transship the stuff, or the Japanese will have to do without.

 

[stjernkjempe]

It might be quite difficult, as the Japanese Nation was booming quite well in the 20's and 30's, so there realy would not have been a sollid reason for agression yet. Only if there was something bad happening at the same time, though that would demand a much larger scale of events prior to the outbreak of hostillities. (Perhaps not even restricted to Japan alone, but more likely a much more hostile attitude from the suggested opponents of Japan (Primarily USA in this case). In such an event, the USA would more likely be the agressor, as it had been in the mid 19th century, with its Peary White Ships incident in Japan.

Yes I agree but I have been toying whit different internal PODs that could do something like more civil unrest around the suffrages question. A more active center-left social-democratic block that would threaten the military and or the economic prosperity whit demands of more labor rights. Or an assassination of the emperor even. Maybe all three of these to make the democratic era a bit more unstable and end earlier whit the militarists holding power.

 

[stjernkjempe]

I dont think its likely Panay would lead to a war, but its a plausible POD. Leading to embargoes, trade wars, Japan getting all huffy about face, and a war (especially if more 'incidents' take place). Maybe the US intelligence finding out (erroneously or not) Panay was done with government approval.

Its probably the only likely POD for a war earlier than the OTL one; until things changed in 1940 Japan was looking at a much longer timescale to challenge the US in the Pacific.

An early enough POD should change this a bit I think. Maybe as early as end of ww1 and Japan is forced away from most of its gains in the pacific. Being cheated out of military gains a third (or is it a fourth or fifth) time would make the Japanese a bit pissed I think. And then there is the Manchurian issue whit the LN that could go different. I think there should be some PODs that could end up whit a militaristic Japan feeling encircled and trying to take on USA earlier.

 

[stjernkjempe]

Well oil isn't the only thing that can be embargoed, rubber's a biggie too, and only the imperial powers have access to it, so the Soviets can either transship the stuff, or the Japanese will have to do without.

Ah rubber! That’s a good point. Japan could probably get rubber plantations started in their holdings but it won’t be in the same quantity or quality and not nearly fast enough whiteout having some sever effects on their economy. But his should make them go after all the colonial powers throats and it’s unlikely as long as France and UK still could put their entire focus on Japan and nothing else.

I file this away thou as it is an excellent escalation point that could make Japan starts a war whit USA even if it could involve other colonial powers under the right political leadership. Thanks! Rubber war has a nice ring to it also.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Read again, I never said the Panay incident would spark war, only that it would be the first step down the slippery slope leading to embargoes similar to the OTL ones that sparked conflict.

I cant recall the name, but shortly after the Panay sinking a US diplomat was struck by a Japanese soldier. Had the soldier taken it to the next level & bayoneted or shot the diplomat he would have carried things a lot further down that slope.