I know it's impossible to know, but how do you guess a Dutch Brazil would look like into the present day? If the Dutch had stayed in Pernambuco, and hadn't been expelled, what would a Dutch Brazil resemble (assuming they eventually get independent)? The Dutch Antilles? Surinam? South Africa? Other? Somehing completely different?
How would a Dutch Brazil look like in the present day?
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It would probably be a mix of present day North Brasil and Surinam. A bit more as a Surinam, with a large Jewish comunity and later in the 19th century an large immigration of contract workers from India and Java as compensation when the import of slaves from Africa dried up.
A second South Africa probably not, and a kind of Antilles aslo not, this were nothing more than slave transit stations.
Recife or Mauritsstad, would be one of the largest concentration of examples of Barroc buildings in the America's, with the oldest synagoge, astronomy, zoo, and university of the America's.
A second South Africa probably not, and a kind of Antilles aslo not, this were nothing more than slave transit stations.
Recife or Mauritsstad, would be one of the largest concentration of examples of Barroc buildings in the America's, with the oldest synagoge, astronomy, zoo, and university of the America's.
Well not quite like this, but this is an earlier map I have of it. I've refined the borders since.I think it would depends on how the Dutch stay in Brazil. After all, Dutch Brazil was basically a Dutch city (Recife) that controlled a countryside filled with Luso-Brazilian Catholic farmers. IOTL when the farmers eventually got tired of paying taxes to the company they rebelled and managed to let the Dutch sieged in Recife.
In order to get a stable Dutch Brazil you can use two options: or you have a series of competent rulers who manage to appease the Portuguese farmers and don't care for the Company's profits (as Maurice of Nassau was doing) or you pretty much needs to have a kind of ethnic cleansing and expell all these farmers, replacing them by loyal Protestant landowners.
It's difficult to imagine how could it have turned in almost 400 years, but I imagine that it the second option happens and the land is under complete control of the WIC we could see a very intensive exploration of the land, in order to get the maximum of sugar production they could have and more slaves being brought to the area. So in the early 18th century it probably would be a kind of big Saint Domingue, the richest plantation colony in the Americas, until someone else starts to develop sugar plantation in the West Indies and competition increases.
I believe that in some ways it would resemble Surinam, as Surinam was basicly Dutch Brazil part II. The main difference would be that Dutch Brasil would probably speak Portuguese or a language derived from Portuguese (with a lot of Dutch, west-African, etc. influences). Just like the Dutch antilles speaking either English or Papiamento as their native language.
Also it would be a lot smaller than Kiat's version (and with a lot less anachronistic borders, but as he changed them it is less relevant). Dutch brazil was limited to the general area of Recife and probably wouldn't expand a lot more, as the Dutch don't have the manpower for that. The north and south of Brasil would either remain Portuguese or get conquered by another European power (I believe France tried to with the south of Brazil, they might succeed now).
BTW Gonzana, I don't believe that the Dutch would go ethnic cleansing on the Portuguese people. They usually didn't do such a thing (which is why the Dutch antilles don't speak Dutch for example). They would need labourers to work in the field and keeping the ones you have is cheaper than getting new ones from Africa. I think a better way would be the good governor approach. Maybe the Portuguese rebel at a worse time and not during the first Anglo-Dutch war (which for ease sake we butterfly away), so the Dutch can sent reinforcements, that crush the rebellion and makes the Netherlands (or the WIC) think about how to handle the colony better. maybe let it be ruled by the Netherlands for a while (a state-Brazil) with good governors.
Dutch Brazil would be a basically a giant Suriname in South America, with majority Lusophone population with some Indian and Indonesian workers living in Brazil. I don't think that the Dutch would be the majority language because Netherlands has no enough resources or manpower to supplant the Portuguese population.
Also, it gives way to British colonization to Southern Brazil if the Dutch stays in Recife.
Also, it gives way to British colonization to Southern Brazil if the Dutch stays in Recife.
I think the trick here is how to find a ruler that satisfy both the farmers and the Company. IOTL Maurice as a very good governor for the farmers, but an incompetent one for the Company (he basically pardoned or postponed the payment of the majority of the farmers' debts and taxes). When the next governor started to collect them the rebellion started.
During the war, while the Dutch troops (great of part of them mercenaries that had never fought in the tropics before) could held the fortresses and towns they were defeated nearly every time they were in march through the countryside because the Luso-Brazilians were using "guerrilla tactics". It meant that the colony wasn't profitable anymore, as without the plantations Recife was to the Dutch just an expansive town to be defended.
In the Dutch Antilles simply there wasn't population enough to make a serious resistance as there was in Pernambuco. There area was also too large to have complete control, and they had a hostile neighbour to the South (Bahia) where were living many families that fled the Dutch invasion and were activelly helping the rebells.
That's why I said that the Dutch would probably need to make some kind of "ethnic cleansing". Even if there wasn't the war with England and they manage to suffocate the rebellion, there is still the problem that they depended more on the farmers than the farmers on them. The next time that Recife orders to them pay their debts again and they feel the Dutch have a weakness (after all was common to collect debts and raise taxes during war times) they would rebell again. It's different from the Antilles, where they invaded but got controll of the population, and where the landlords eventually were Dutch.
One thing they could do to balance the power in the countryside is to send to Pernambuco Protestant farmers. IOTL the lands of the Portuguese farmers who fled to Bahia were all taken by the Company, that sold them to Dutch and Jewish merchants in Recife. But the buyers sold them back to the Portuguese, because they were the ones who had interest and knew how to run a plantation. So, a solution could be the Company selling the lands taken to Protestant farmers, who would be loyal to the Dutch and would give them a support base in the countryside. After this, they could manage to expell some rebell farmers and give their lands to other loyal Protestants. After some time the Portuguese landowners might be more affraid of losing their lands instead of paying their debts, and give up the fight in exchange for some conditions. But still you need to replace a good part of them by loyal subjects, otherwise the initial problem (the dependency of the Dutch on the will of the farmers) still stand.
If you consider defeating a rebellion by ruthlessly killing a lot of rebels and then replacing them with (more) loyal subjects, than yeah it is ethnic cleansing you need. I just thought it sadly would be standard procedure defeating a rebellion. So basicly you need a rebellion during a time the Dutch could easily sent reinforcements (so no Anglo-Dutch war) and replacing part of the rebelling people (who are now either death or fled to safer territory) with more loyal farmers (Dutch, Germans, Hugenots, Flemish and Walloon protestants, the usual) and after that a good governor that would be acceptible by the Portuguese people that are left, the new farmers, the Dutch upperclass and the WIC. There must be someone who is suitable in the Netherlands somewhere.
Sure, I agree with you, maybe it wasn't the best term, while such practice nowadays would probably be called this way at that time it was normal procedure. But still some degree of populational change would be needed.
Maybe after the rebellion the WIC starts to think that firing John Maurice was a mistake, as he kept the farmers peaceful, and he is recalled? Or someone else that have diplomatic skills and/or doesn't have many prejudices against Catholics.
I will still guess on a very large Suriname. With a population mix of decendants from, Portuguese, West Africans, Indians, Indonesians and Europeans (Portuguese Jews, French Hugenots, Flemish, Germans from the Rhein area, and Dutch)
Critical eara would be the 17th century, but with a good gouvernor as Maurice of Nassau Siegen, and a peace deal with Portugal, the colony have to be consolidated. The border would probably the river Sao Francesco. North would be Dutch, South portuguese. All teritories to the West will be a determined by expeditions in later centuries.
Street language would be a kind of Surinam, mixed with Jewish, Portugues, West African languages and Dutch and some English and the official language and lingua franca would be Dutch, as OTL Suriname.
That Dutch would be the common language should be a development started in later 18th and 19th centuries. Perhaps by a scholar program set up by Misionars or Evangelists?
Critical eara would be the 17th century, but with a good gouvernor as Maurice of Nassau Siegen, and a peace deal with Portugal, the colony have to be consolidated. The border would probably the river Sao Francesco. North would be Dutch, South portuguese. All teritories to the West will be a determined by expeditions in later centuries.
Street language would be a kind of Surinam, mixed with Jewish, Portugues, West African languages and Dutch and some English and the official language and lingua franca would be Dutch, as OTL Suriname.
That Dutch would be the common language should be a development started in later 18th and 19th centuries. Perhaps by a scholar program set up by Misionars or Evangelists?
I edit the map of the Kiat as an example of how Dutch Brazil can develop over time until the 20th centuries. If the colony can be consolidated and a peace deal with Portugual is made in the 17th century.
Even after a peace treaty with Portugal, there would be uprisings from time to time, just as the VOC had to deal with it in their Asian empire, but the rebels would not be backed by Portugual.
I did not take French Guana in account on the map, just for simplicity
Even after a peace treaty with Portugal, there would be uprisings from time to time, just as the VOC had to deal with it in their Asian empire, but the rebels would not be backed by Portugual.
I did not take French Guana in account on the map, just for simplicity
Well, the Company tried to expand Northwards (they invaded Maranhão in 1641) but there the resistance was too strong and the Dutch needed to leave in 1644, still during John Maurice's government. But given the right conditions maybe they have conquered it too.
They also tried to conquer Bahia (Nassau sieged Salvador in 1638) but were defeated there too. It was this defeat that started the conflicts between John Maurice and the Company.
Actually I think that a good POD would be to get rid of John Maurice of Nassau from the beggining, replacing him by a more ruthless guy who wouldn't "spoil" the Portuguese so much, letting them used to too much governamental kindness that when they are remembered they also have taxes to pay they start to rebell.
Maybe a possibility it to make this guy the governor instead of Nassau: Krzysztof Arciszewski, a Polish Calvinist who served as a Colonel in the Company's army. He was a good military commander, and had an important advantage, good knowledge of the terrain. Between 1634 and 1636 he was responsible for some of the most important victories of the Company in Pernambuco, as the conquest of Arraial do Bom Jesus and Porto Calvo. Part of it was due to his connections with some Lusophone collaborators, as the mullatto Calabar. Christopher even was the godfather for the baptism of Calabar's son in the Reformed Church of Recife in 1634. However when he thought the Company would make him the governor of Pernambuco they sent John Maurice, and he decided to go back to the Netherlands. After Nassau's defeat in Salvador he was sent back to Brazil, but he entered in conflict with the governor and once more went to the Europe, this time definitively.
So, maybe if he had been the governor then Dutch Pernambuco would have a competent military leader as the ruler of the colony, someone who had fought the Portuguese previously and knew how to defeat them, instead of a governor who prefered to make peace and spend the Company's money building palaces and making parties. It could be a good start.
I can see John Maurice being returned (with a bit of pressure from Amsterdam), as he was the person to keep the farmers peaceful. Sure the WIC needs to convince him that some profit must flow to them, unless they will remove him again. It seems not that unlikely
I believe that the north of Brazil remained in Portuguese hands, at least it was on the wikipedia map. Also as you need some butterflies to keep the first Anglo-Dutch war from happening , the other wars between the Netherlands and England will be different, so a Dutch Surinam (and British Guyana) might be butterflied away, or various other butterflies in America. Maybe a Dutch Jamaica and other British islands, while Guyana remains British or because an increased presense in the Americas of the Netherlands, the New Netherlands (New Amsterdam) remains in Dutch hands, etc.
Maranhão was in Brazilian hands and never under firm control of the WIC. But a peace treaty with Porugual could renounce all claims of Portugual to territories north of the river Sao Francesco.
British Guyana is a product of the Napoleontic wars, it was part of the colonies Pomeroon, Escebuco? and Suriname.
Dutch Brazil is something different than the small city of Nieuw Amsterdam and the hamlets surrounding it on the island of Manhattan. Dutch Brazil is an huge teritory, without almost no English interest, while Nieuw Amsterdam was relative small, surrounded by English colonies.
When there would be no treat from Portugal supporting Brazilian rebels, I do not think Anglo-Dutch wars would have much effect on it. Ceylon for instance and other Indian trading forts were only handed over during the Napoleontic wars not during the first 3 Anglo-Dutch wars.
British Guyana is a product of the Napoleontic wars, it was part of the colonies Pomeroon, Escebuco? and Suriname.
Dutch Brazil is something different than the small city of Nieuw Amsterdam and the hamlets surrounding it on the island of Manhattan. Dutch Brazil is an huge teritory, without almost no English interest, while Nieuw Amsterdam was relative small, surrounded by English colonies.
When there would be no treat from Portugal supporting Brazilian rebels, I do not think Anglo-Dutch wars would have much effect on it. Ceylon for instance and other Indian trading forts were only handed over during the Napoleontic wars not during the first 3 Anglo-Dutch wars.
Surinam was a valuable colony during the Second Anglo-Dutch Wars and the British offered to give back New Netherlands for it. The Dutch refused as New Netherlands was more of a colony of New England then Dutch and would probably end up back in British hands anyway. But with a few butterflies we could have Britain win a Second Anglo-Dutch War like conflict and Britain could end up with Dutch Brazil.
Oh wait I nearly forgot what pompejus and Gonzaga were saying. So the POD would have to have the Dutch capturing Northern Brazil as well.
With some butterflies the Netherlands could lose, but with a large American colony I think a more complete victory would be more likely. I can see the Dutch launching an attack from Dutch brazil on the New Netherlands recapturing the colony or preventing it from falling into English hands. Also it is possible that Surinam/Guyana wouldn't be a target for the Dutch as they already have Dutch Brazil, which would produce the exact the crops as Guyana. So they focus more on the English islands or on North American colonies.
Actually without a first Anglo-Dutch war (which would make a Dutch Brazil a lot easier), maybe there won't be any Anglo-Dutch wars. Maybe Cromwell and the Dutch make some kind of an Alliance (against the French for example), butterflying away the Anglo-Dutch rivalries. So many butterflies that could happen. A Dutch Guyana is far from certain.
How real accademic historians use Alternate History generated maps in their presentations. 😄
See map post #12
www.mauritshuis.nl
See map post #12
Revisiting Dutch Brazil and Johan Maurits
www.mauritshuis.nl
People always mention Guianas when picturing Brazil colonized by British or Dutch. Brazil, however, had a massive number European settlers and even in North and Northeast White population is almost up to 40%.
A Dutch Brazil would probably look like South Africa as much as OTL Northeast Brazil kinda do, where Whites are about 20% of population or 10 million people or so.
I see this ATL Dutch Brazil being poorer too, even a large chunk of the White population specially where their numbers are bigger. A bit like Afrikaners in the South Africa rural hinterland. Bad climate and soils at the most part.
A Dutch Brazil would probably look like South Africa as much as OTL Northeast Brazil kinda do, where Whites are about 20% of population or 10 million people or so.
I see this ATL Dutch Brazil being poorer too, even a large chunk of the White population specially where their numbers are bigger. A bit like Afrikaners in the South Africa rural hinterland. Bad climate and soils at the most part.
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