How do you stop WWI?

We say the war was going to happen no matter what. Yet How many large wars was there between the Napoleonic Wars and WWI? Sure single nations fought other nations, but for the most part the majority of europe was safe from conflict. Wars where either swift, or they where simply settled by the ruling elite.

It is quite easy not to have war. WWI was difficult to stop once the ball got rolling, for the mindset was not "we have to help our allies," it was "if we stop, we will never get the offensive we need to win."

Germany planned the July Crisis well, French diplomats on a voyage in the Baltic, Russia seemingly left out of the talks, and a swift easy to handle deadline for the Serbians. Of course all went to hell after that, once mobilization began none of the generals wanted to stop. The military thinking of the day made it impossible for them to stop. If you want to avoid WWI you need to find a fix prior to mobilization.

To me that says changing the German attitude toward diplomacy. The First Moroccan Crisis showed to Germany that international talks did not work. All a nation had to do was be backed up by an ally, and if done quickly they could do as they wished. France was easily able to get what they wanted, without telling the rest of the world, and once they did it was more of a "What are you gonna do about it?" kind of thing.

If you want peace, then diplomacy must not be seen as a failing option. Say what one wants of Germany but they often encouraged diplomatic talks over land, disputes, and many things. Sue they will go to war when they feel it is important, but too often I see Germany painted as the warmongering scourge, to France's noble attempts at survial. One cannot blame Germany for doing the same thing, that France did to get what they wanted.

It is somewhat up there with people saying Japan is wicked and evil for a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, when they were trumpeted as military masterminds after doing the same thing to Port Arthur.
 
Bumped :D

I'm still looking for ideas everyone

Even if you have no suggestions, could someone comment on this idea:

Prevent Tsar Nicholas II supporting Serbia against A-H. What could have been the Great War remains solely in the Balkans and is resolved withina year or two.

I posted it a few days ago and no one has commented on it. :(
 
Russia and Austria-Hungary

The only way Russia is not going to support Serbia is if there is a give and take with Austria-Hungary as in dividing the Balkans into spheres of influence with Austria-Hungary basically acquiescing to Russian control of the Straits at some point. Austria-Hungary blew it by screwing Russia over in 1908 and she ended up paying for it in 1914.
 
The only way Russia is not going to support Serbia is if there is a give and take with Austria-Hungary as in dividing the Balkans into spheres of influence with Austria-Hungary basically acquiescing to Russian control of the Straits at some point. Austria-Hungary blew it by screwing Russia over in 1908 and she ended up paying for it in 1914.

Not necessarily. Up until the 2nd Balkan war Bulgaria was the prime Russia ally/satellite in the region. However crap Bulgarian diplomacy meant they got duffed up by their former allies, plus the Ottomans and the Rumanians. They thought they had promises of Russian support and felt betrayed when this didn't occur, walked off in a huff and Russia found itself with only Serbia as a friendly power. So when the crisis came it felt it had to support the Serbs. With the existing tensions and alliances plus the thought by most powers that who struck 1st would have the edge things then ran away.

On your 2nd point yes Austria mad a mistake in going back on a deal with Russia in 1908 over the annexation of Bosnia. [I have a vague memory that they had agreed Russia would get something else in compensation then went back on the deal - not very wise in the long run].

Steve
 
Baggins

As you will have seen there are a lot of options out there. The one that seems most popular is getting an Anglo-German agreement which would probably secure peace for quite a while given the resulting imbalance of power. Especially since after Bismarck achieved a fairly moderate peace with Austria post 1866 it is difficult to get Germany and Austria on different sides. This gives a powerful Central Powers bloc in Britain, Germany, and Austria. Given its two prime supporters are in there and its biggest enemy [Russia] is on the opposite side this means that the Ottomans are also likely to end up on the same side. Ditto probably with Japan. This means that the two opposing powers, France and Russia are too weak to risk starting a war themselves, a version of the position Bismarck achieved with France post 1870. With Britain being opposed to a conflict and a less militant Germany not feeling threatened the dominant camp is also likely to avoid anything too abrupt.

There are a number of ways you could achieve that. The most likely single POD is probably as said Frederic III not dying young of throat cancer. This should mean better relations with Britain, possibly improved further by say German political support for Britain over the Fashod [sp?] crisis returned by Britain supporting Germany on keeping Morocco independent say. [Main thing would be to avoid or change Wilhelm and the naval build-up that really soured Anglo-German relations].

One thing you could have is that actually I think the French spent more on their navy than the Germans in the run-up to WWI. The problem was that because of frequently changing governments, naval ministers and policies they spent the money poorly. Therefore if you get a more stable government and a strong naval minister who manages to radically reform their organisation and construction you could see them getting a lot more for their naval spending. [This could be prompted in part by better Anglo-German relations making the French feel more threatened]. In turn this will make Britain respond as it did to the German challenge OTL.

You are thinking of a later, big war. A few possible options to trigger this, either on their own or in combination:
a) Russia continues its dramatic economic development - which was seriously worrying the Germans OTL - becoming powerful enough that with France it thinks a war is winnable.
b) Less likely but the US is drawn into the Franco-Russian bloc.
c) The Austria-Hungarian empire suffers a serious crisis and internal conflict, both weakening the alliance and generating troubled waters in which others can fish.
d) A split between Britain and Germany weakens the alliance. Say that circa 1925+ Frederic dies and Wilhelm, frustrated by his long wait to gain the throne seeks to put his mark on things but changing German policy. Possibly coupled with some clash over influence between the two powers which, while it would before have been settled quickly now festers.

Anyway, a few ideas that might be useful.

Steve

PS Trust Gandalf when he says that jewellery doesn’t suit you.:D
 
I've read over the whole thread and there are alot of WIs that don't hold water if you don't have a fine details mentality of writing your ATL. And certainly don't look at AH when writing your own AH since many times they just reinforce certain political/historical views that don't have any underpinnings to them.

For example: Using Frederick III is a possibility, however you have to be aware that the Kaiser was NOT an absolute monarch - no matter what sort of press Wilhelm II fairly or unfairly has. Frederick III would have found himself pretty isolated within the Imperial Court and the German Government with his liberal - at least for a Prussian - leanings. His impact would have been incremental in the smallest of degrees. Frederick did support the construction of a larger German navy and so did most of Germany.

Anyway, there are strings attached to all actions, and it would be important that you are aware of them.
 

Faeelin

Banned
For example: Using Frederick III is a possibility, however you have to be aware that the Kaiser was NOT an absolute monarch - no matter what sort of press Wilhelm II fairly or unfairly has. Frederick III would have found himself pretty isolated within the Imperial Court and the German Government with his liberal - at least for a Prussian - leanings. His impact would have been incremental in the smallest of degrees. Frederick did support the construction of a larger German navy and so did most of Germany.

A larger navy doesn't necessarily have to be large enough to challenge Britain.
 
I've read over the whole thread and there are alot of WIs that don't hold water if you don't have a fine details mentality of writing your ATL. And certainly don't look at AH when writing your own AH since many times they just reinforce certain political/historical views that don't have any underpinnings to them.

For example: Using Frederick III is a possibility, however you have to be aware that the Kaiser was NOT an absolute monarch - no matter what sort of press Wilhelm II fairly or unfairly has. Frederick III would have found himself pretty isolated within the Imperial Court and the German Government with his liberal - at least for a Prussian - leanings. His impact would have been incremental in the smallest of degrees. Frederick did support the construction of a larger German navy and so did most of Germany.

Anyway, there are strings attached to all actions, and it would be important that you are aware of them.

I'm well aware that the Kaiser's wern't absolute monarchs Mr PoePoe. However I feel FIII could be able to establish a power base for liberal reforms in Germany, even if they are rather limited.

I'm interested by your opinion that the WI's in the thread don't hold water. Are there any other examples you would care to share with us?
 
Here's one that actually contributes rather than stops the likelihood of war.

Historically, Britain sided against the strongest European power, in order to balance things out. If France were to embark on a massive arms build up while Germany took things slower (maybe no naval arms race?), Britain might have sided with Germany. All other events equal, Britain might be able to keep Germany on the sidelines of the Russo-Austrian conflict over Serbia and it developes as a minor regional feud. Far fetched? Maybe.


Things are made difficult because of the necessary post-1900 POD, so Hawkwood is doing with best he can.

1. French naval build up will see both a British and German response which only increases the likelihood of war. While the French were making overtures to the British and enticing them into an anti-German alliance since their defeat in 1871 the situation doesn't really become clear until the aftermath of the Russo-Japanese War. The important thing in that war is that Russia is defeated on the high seas, including before Tsushima, and the possibility of a Franco-Russian naval threat is completely done away with. The French, as mentioned elsewhere, simply also can't get their shipyards working in the best sense. They take years to build ships, as well as they also have to fund and provision their army.

2. The High Seas Fleet is built predominately to protect German harbors and keep them open. The Prussian merchant marine suffered terribly during the war with Denmark. The Germans also recognized that they were dependent upon imports for foreign grains. Until the construction of the Kiel Canal they had to consider the construction of two fleets to face both the French and the Russian fleets.

Regarding Britain, one has to remember that the British are steering a willful course quasi-detachment from European affairs. However, they make plenty of demonstrations of gunboat diplomacy thru out the world to get their way. If you, as the Germans, don't want them sticking their noses in you've got to be able to stand up to them. Also remember that the construction of a German navy predates both Tirpitz and Wilhelm II, they are 'Johnny Come-Latelies', and it is greatly supported by the German middle class, urban dwellers and big business. Building a navy is also a status symbol of a Great Power, you really needed it to be taken seriously. It wouldn't be too out of place to think about current events with Iran and its atomic program.

Germany is simply the third 'boogey man' of historic British naval scares as seen thru out the late 19th century. The previous 'scares' involved France and Russia and were more often than not spurred by the Admiralty and its connections with armament manufacturers to gain more money from Parliament.

2a. The problem of geopolitics for the British. Because of continued 'isolation' the British find themselves facing having to choose between joining to two world spanning alliances that can be both a boon or a bust for Britain if it doesn't choose wisely.

The Franco-Russian Alliance: Weaker of the two, but globally it borders more British territory than the Dual Alliance. If they defeat the Austrians and Germans they would dominate Europe and could threaten British possessions in Africa and Asia. If they are defeated by the Austrians and Germans there would be a Europea dominated by German, with overseas aspirations, and France and Russia may extract some sort of revenge upon Britain and easily do it since they border so much British territory.

The Dual Alliance: Stronger of the two, for the moment. If the Germans dominate Europe after vanquishing France and Russia they could easily keep the British out of a continent-wide market as well as have the industrial base to strongly challenge Britain. If Britain is allied with Germany at the time Britain is pretty much an appendage or sidekick. If Germany and Austrian are defeated their isn't much they can do revenge wise.

So for the British joining the Franco-Russian Alliance is the lesser of two evils.

3. The problem with a limited Austro-Russian War is that there is no way that Britain could guarantee that France will remain neutral and Germany is dependent upon Austria since it is its only ally. The Franco-Russian Alliance is committed to militarily achieving two objectives: France wants Alsace-Lorraine and Russia wants Constantinople. Austria is only looking out for itself, which Germany found out to its disappointment during the Moroccans Crisises (or was it Algericas?). Austria, while not a failing power, needs to hit the Serbs hard in order to be perceived as a Great Power. Great Powers don't usually let other mediate talks between them and lesser powers.

The Russians having been humiliated over Bosnia-Hercegovina before simply are not going to allow the Austrians to walk over the Serbs.

Blame for the war rests more with Helmut von Moltke as Chief of the General Staff than anybody else in Berlin, a lot more blame rests in Vienna. The German General Staff is practically seized with the necessity of launching a preventive war against France and Russia. One of Moltke's mistakes in the 2-3 years before the war is to stop development of war plans that fought offensively in the East and defensively in the West. Everything is concentrated into finely detailed master time table which has no stop button.
 
I blame Napoleon III for WWI. I know thats reaching pretty far back, but my thinking is that his adventuring, specifically the Crimean War, was what really upset the balance of power in Europe, and allowed for holes in the Congress of Vienna established balance of power to be exploited by Bismarck and the Italian whose name escapes me.

Kill off Napoleon III sometime before 1848. If there is not a Bonaparte to take advantage of the fall of the July Monarchy (and without Nappy III I don't see one who can), then the Second Republic gets to stumble along, Nappy III never gets the chance to unbalance Europe via the Crimean War. Without the Crimean War then Austria and Russia remains conservative status quo-er pals facing down liberal nationalism wherever it rears its ugly head. Without Russian-Austrian animosity the Prussians don't get a chance to upset the balance of power in Germany. Nappy III was the mover behind Italian unification, and without him France is not going to back Italian unification. Europe continues down the path of boiling nationalism, with no great power sponsorship to make any of it more than rhetoric from exiles.

Another '48 is probably inevitable, in say another generation. History progresses anyway though, as with a united Austrian-Russian front the Balkans is more carefully sliced up, perhaps the Austrians and Russians even come to some kind of agreement whereby the Austrians get the Danube basin (in effect the Balkans) in return for support of Russian designs on Constantinople.

In Germany nationalism becomes increasingly the province of liberals. Without backing from any of the princes German nationalism begins to spread via labor unions and intellectual centers. When the next '48-esque crisis occurs German nationalism is in the form a National Strike, with Workers and Students uniting to face down the princes. In Aachen the "German National Republic" is declared. Many troops go over to the rebels and the Prussians and Austrians call out their armies, and civil war between the Nationalists and the Princes appears inevitable. In Hungary Louis Kossuth appears again, this time declaring the "Republic of Hungary" and leading another insurrection. With Hungary in revolt and Germany on the edge of civil war the Hapsburgs are at their lowest ebb in generations . . .

In Italy Garibaldi begins his own revolution, launched from Rome itself. However, his forces are able to gain control of Sicily, Naples, and in Austrian Lombardy the Italian cities throw out their Austrian overlords and annex themselves to Garibaldi's "Italian Republic." In Piedmont the French-speaking King calls out the Army when pro-Garibaldi rioting threatens to overthrow his throne . . .

In France economic difficulties provoke rioting and the inability of the government to respond brings its collapse. The threat of a Restoration brings out the Communards in the streets of Paris and they hoist the Red Flag. The French recall Philip V to the throne, and the war between the Tricolors and Reds begins in the streets of Paris . . .

Anyway, the end result is a Europe that is much more democratic and liberal. With democracies in Germany, Italy, France, and Hungary, as a result of liberal nationalism and essentially "people power" the threat of war between the Republics is very reduced. I don't think that World War I that we had OTL would occur in this kind of world. I'm kind of an optimist though.
 
ns

I guess I'm goin to have to get used to these jokes :rolleyes:

Some great suggestions though stevep. Thanks.

Baggins

Glad to be of help.:)

I only made the joke because of post 57. Sounded distinctly like a TL where Gandalf didn't persuade Mr B to leave the shire and the ring.;):eek:

Steve
 
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