Easiest way for Octavian to lose the war against Antony is not at Actium but in Octavian's campaign against Sextus Pompey in Sicily.
Pompey was more of a distraction than a serious threat to the Triumvirate’s control of Rome but he was troublesome enough to cause Antony to recommend suing for peace so that the armies of Rome could be sent to recover the Eagles captured by the Parthians. Although that campaign ended in stalemate, Antony was forced to return to Rome as Octavian sent a second campaign against Sextus, finding a way to eliminate Lepidus (the third triumvir).
Octavian didn’t have any practical military experience and so defeating Sextus was of paramount importance to his public image of being a sound tactician. If Antony decides to let Octavian deal with Sextus without lending any sort of assistance, Octavian could find himself in real trouble. Without distractions back home, it’s not unreasonable to think that Marc Antony could defeat the Parthians and recover the Eagles. Such a PR triumph would secure his ascendancy as master of Rome whilst delivering a KO blow to Octavian’s ambitions.
Would Marc Antony chase Octavian out of Rome? Probably not – Octavian is the leader of the Caesarian Party in Rome and his support is needed at least until new allies can be packed into the Senate. But the ambitious upstart needs to be kept on a very short leash until he makes a fatal mistake and Marc Antony is not Octavian’s political equal. A new deal needs to be cut between the two but at the first sign of treachery, Marc Antony would have the upper hand in terms of popularity amongst the people and would be able to deal with his rival.
Furthermore, Roman success in the east would not put Antigonus II on the throne of Judea which would not lead to a bitter war of independence. One could see that Antony could learn from Egypt’s policies of using local leaders to quell local disputes rather than nervous local governors, say one Pontus Pilate. Cleopatra would probably be left as an independent client state of Rome and Marc Antony almost certainly would give her a free hand in the east to help keep the peace as a counterweight to the Parthians.
Pompey was more of a distraction than a serious threat to the Triumvirate’s control of Rome but he was troublesome enough to cause Antony to recommend suing for peace so that the armies of Rome could be sent to recover the Eagles captured by the Parthians. Although that campaign ended in stalemate, Antony was forced to return to Rome as Octavian sent a second campaign against Sextus, finding a way to eliminate Lepidus (the third triumvir).
Octavian didn’t have any practical military experience and so defeating Sextus was of paramount importance to his public image of being a sound tactician. If Antony decides to let Octavian deal with Sextus without lending any sort of assistance, Octavian could find himself in real trouble. Without distractions back home, it’s not unreasonable to think that Marc Antony could defeat the Parthians and recover the Eagles. Such a PR triumph would secure his ascendancy as master of Rome whilst delivering a KO blow to Octavian’s ambitions.
Would Marc Antony chase Octavian out of Rome? Probably not – Octavian is the leader of the Caesarian Party in Rome and his support is needed at least until new allies can be packed into the Senate. But the ambitious upstart needs to be kept on a very short leash until he makes a fatal mistake and Marc Antony is not Octavian’s political equal. A new deal needs to be cut between the two but at the first sign of treachery, Marc Antony would have the upper hand in terms of popularity amongst the people and would be able to deal with his rival.
Furthermore, Roman success in the east would not put Antigonus II on the throne of Judea which would not lead to a bitter war of independence. One could see that Antony could learn from Egypt’s policies of using local leaders to quell local disputes rather than nervous local governors, say one Pontus Pilate. Cleopatra would probably be left as an independent client state of Rome and Marc Antony almost certainly would give her a free hand in the east to help keep the peace as a counterweight to the Parthians.