Holding Back the Red Tide - A Czechoslovakian TL

[Iñaki]

Pooter, your butterflies could at the end permit a very early end of the cold war, with Czechoslovakia not a soviet satellite it is possible that the soviet leaders after the death of Stalin in 1953 (or 1952 or 1954 if this is butterflied by the events of this Timeline) decides with more force to offer the West a pact for end the division of Europe, in OTL Beria and Malenkov clearly go to the path to end effectively the cold war, even Beria thinkings were to permit the reunification of Germany in exchange of being Germany a neutral country, in fact Beria clearly seemed think in finlandize Eastern Europe more than in maintaining it as a Soviet protectorate making possible radical changes in all Communist countries to permit more liberalization.

Truly with a Czechoslovakia aligned with the West the need to end the Cold War in Europe for the new alternate leadership could be more strong than in OTL.
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publica...-towards-germany-during-the-beria-interregnum
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/publica...soviet-campaign-to-end-the-cold-war-1953-1955

 

[Kammada]

I think you can forget Ruthenia. POD here is somewhere around 1946, after election. Ruthenia was for Soviets done deal directly after they liberated territory. They didn't allow Czechoslovak officials perform their duty on this teritories and at the end pushed for plebiscite which outcome was clear, as it were Soviets who organized it. In 1946 there was already nothing to change on outcome. Unless Czechoslovak army was able to push Soviets out of there, which it wasn't in position to do.

My bad about the exact POD timing. Still there is a difference between a pro-Soviet regime that has swallowed this pill and made the citizens to do the same, and a multi-party democracy that won't do much about the later part. The Ruthenian irredentists will most probably be marginalized, but even their presence is yet another source of tension, until Stalin's death, at least.

Then (I tend to agree with Iñaki) everyone can draw a deep breath and relax.

BTW, with the Iron Curtain zig-zagging across Europe in that way, Tito would have had much harder time than IOTL until Stalin is dead.

 

[The Ubbergeek]

I still think the regime there would be neutral - 'finlandised', like Finland and possibly Austria for the later... as one guy said, the map kind of show Stalin and later USSR leaders would NOT tolerate a 'sword pocking the belly'.

 

[Hörnla]

Perhaps you caught One Single expulsion Wave in partikular. The article "history of czechoslovakia" says 2.9 Million ethnic Germans were expelled ( and i did Not put it there).

The czech Version of the article seems to Talk about 2.32 Million.

 

[Petike]

I am from the Czech Republic so I have a very personal interest

I don't know you yet, so hi there !

As for the party name, why not just renew the interwar Social Democratic Party. Or call the new one the Socialist Party. Both could work.

BTW, will there be gradual proper federalization if you manage to kick out the commies ITTL ?

 

[Hörnla]

You could also decide to have far looser expulsions... and have a Timeline with 1-2 Million Germans remaining. Could Be very interesting!

 

[Ol'GarryBoldwater]

Part 5: It Get's Worse
Masaryk was an effective president, and so was his goverment but things got worse. Stalin travelled to Poland in the Summer of 1952, making sure it stayed Communist. He was meeting the Polish President . As the two men shook hands and gunshot was heard. Stalin was dead. This was very bad news for Czechoslovakia. International tensions increased, Truman and the Soviet Leadership were on edge. On September 13th 1952 Soviet troops entered Poland. The Americans condemded the actions but nothing happened. Meanwhile in Warsaw innocent people were killed; 1 in every 25. The rest of Poland was not spared, villages were burned down and massacres happened in Krakow. Tanks were sent in and every other member of the goverment was killed or stripped of their rank. Boguchwal Zielinski, a Polish Student was later found to be the killer. Zielinski who studied medicine in Warsaw used a sniper rifle. He was later hanged. The Polish people fought back against this abuse: there were protests in front of goverment buildings, "Free Poland," was written on banknotes so the message could be passed on and playwrites and author and poets created works that were considered against the regime. Czechoslovakia too was effected. Gottwald and his Communists called for a "People's uprising against the Capitalist Tyranny" but the President would not have it. On September 15th Masaryk made a speech. He said " The people of Poland would have been like us, if Poland had had fair and democratic elections.The people of Poland would have been like us, if they had freedom.The people of Poland would have been like us, if it hadn't been for the Russians. So let's make them like us, let's make America make them like us,let's make the UK make them like us, let's make France make them like us, let's make us make them like us." this gave strength to Poles. This was Masaryk's plea to the West and the West would have to answer it. The cracks in the Soviet leadership were beginning to show. They needed someone to replace Stalin.

​

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

I'm going to have to say, I like this TL, but the last post seems a bit far-fetched. Stalin driving in an open-top limo, Kennedy style? I'm sorry, that's not going to happen, especially not in Poland. It's well-known how paranoid Stalin was, and I don't see him doing something so mind-numbingly stupid. Also, he probably wouldn't go on a little publicity tour to keep control. That isn't going to make the Poles like him, and he knows that. He'll probably use politics, as in all the other Eastern Bloc countries to keep control. And the Soviets aren't going to go on a killing spree either, especially not on the horrific scale of 1 in 10 people in Warsaw . It's politically impossible. They're literally have a war on their hands.

 

[Ol'GarryBoldwater]

ok sorry i guess i got a bit exicted. I will change the death toll to 1 in 25 and make Stalin be shot in another way.
I kind of wanted to do a Soviet invasion like in 1968 or like the hungarian uprising.

 

[Ol'GarryBoldwater]

IAlso, he probably wouldn't go on a little publicity tour to keep control. That isn't going to make the Poles like him, and he knows that. He'll probably use politics, as in all the other Eastern Bloc countries to keep control.

I think he would go on a visit to talk personally to the Polish president about the situation.

 

[Petike]

Well, if your TL succeeds in its plan, things will be weird in central Europe. Czechoslovakia will pretty much be its Finland - defiant of the USSR, but friendly enough to it to not openly intimidate it. Expect some pro-Soviet censorship in its media until the East Block falls completely. Also, neutrality will probably have to be enforced, instead of membership in NATO. Man, the butterflies...

I feel bad for poor Austria, though...

On the plus side : The Czechoslovak aviation industry might get to producing some kickass post-war designs ! Tatra might still produce passenger cars en masse ! That alone is a beatiful prospect, one to look forward to.

 

[Iñaki]

Originally posted by pooter1998
Part 5: It Get's Worse
Masaryk was an effective president, and so was his goverment but things got worse. Stalin travelled to Poland in the Summer of 1952, making sure it stayed Communist. He was meeting the Polish President . As the two men shook hands and gunshot was heard. Stalin was dead. This was very bad news for Czechoslovakia. International tensions increased, Truman and the Soviet Leadership were on edge. On September 13th 1952 Soviet troops entered Poland. The Americans condemded the actions but nothing happened. Meanwhile in Warsaw innocent people were killed; 1 in every 25. The rest of Poland was not spared, villages were burned down and massacres happened in Krakow. Tanks were sent in and every other member of the goverment was killed or stripped of their rank. Boguchwal Zielinski, a Polish Student was later found to be the killer. Zielinski who studied medicine in Warsaw used a sniper rifle. He was later hanged. The Polish people fought back against this abuse: there were protests in front of goverment buildings, "Free Poland," was written on banknotes so the message could be passed on and playwrites and author and poets created works that were considered against the regime. Czechoslovakia too was effected. Gottwald and his Communists called for a "People's uprising against the Capitalist Tyranny" but the President would not have it. On September 15th Masaryk made a speech. He said " The people of Poland would have been like us, if Poland had had fair and democratic elections.The people of Poland would have been like us, if they had freedom.The people of Poland would have been like us, if it hadn't been for the Russians. So let's make them like us, let's make America make them like us,let's make the UK make them like us, let's make France make them like us, let's make us make them like us." this gave strength to Poles. This was Masaryk's plea to the West and the West would have to answer it. The cracks in the Soviet leadership were beginning to show. They needed someone to replace Stalin.

God! Truly I did not imagine such outcome for Stalin. The great question now is who controls the Kremlin? Beria, Malenkov, Molotov,, Kaganovich, Kruschev, Bulganin..? we have an array of men with probabilities of being the future leader of USSR, although as in OTL, initially it would be necessary some kind of collective leadership, any of them have the sufficient force to govern lonely, so the interesting will be what coalition could emerge after the Stalin's murder.
My personal opinion: it would be interesting to explore the possibilities of a Beria leadership, in OTL he was caught by surprise when his Politburo partners manage his fall and of his supporters, it was interesting that Beria seemed so sure by his position of chief of KGB that he did not think in the possibility of a coup de main against him (and also the plotters arrange the cooperation of Zhukov and the army), in TTL with the murdering of Stalin could be Beria could be more prudent and try to assure his position thinking more in his own security.
In any case he would need to pact with someone, the army? Molotov? he was feared and not too much trusted by a great part of the Politburo, so he needs to be more diplomatic, but could be the murdering of Stalin provides him with more prudence.

Well I suppose the next installment will give more light about the soviet leadership after Stalin.

 

[Ol'GarryBoldwater]

there might be a new update soon.

 

[Iñaki]

Waiting with great interest for it.