HMS Invincible

As of Sunday February 29th / Monday March 1st Japanese forces hold all of the Malay peninsula except for Pinang Island and a stretch 2.5 mile deep X 10 miles long pocket on the mainland. Singapore island is still in British hands. The invasion of Sumatra has been halted thanks to the naval battle north of the Balitung islands.
How are things in Singapore right now?
 
Siege of Singapore.
The Siege of Singapore.
As early as 1937, the British general staff had concluded that a Japanese land attack was feasible and could capture Singapore in two months’ time.

October 1941 saw General Percival being replaced by General Franklin at Singapore. December 1941 saw the arrival of a Canadian armoured brigade under the command of General (fighting Frank) Worthington and consisting of the Royal Rifles of Canada, the Winnipeg Grenadiers the 11 Ontario Regiment (tank), the 12 Three Rivers Regiment (tank) and the 14 Calgary Regiment (tank), the later 3 without their Valentine tanks which were on ships diverted to Australia to be delivered at a date as yet unknown.

The British 18th Infantry division under the command of General Beckwith-Smith along with Barstow's 9th Indian division and Bennett's 8th Australian formed the Singapore garrison.

The siege proper began on January 18th when the Allies were shelled by Japanese artillery and air attacks. These intensified over the next five days. The artillery and air bombardment strengthened, severely disrupting communications between Allied units and their commanders and affecting preparations for the defence of the island.

The Australians were centred on RAF Tengah in the western side of the Island, the British centred on RNAS Sembawang in the east with the Indians in between. The Canadians and local forces formed a rear-guard in the south.
 
The siege of Penang began on December 16th. Major General Arthur Reginald Chater, established his headquarters in Georgetown on Penang Island, with a fortified defensive 'box' running from the southern bank of the Muda River from the coast to Kampung Tanjung Rambai then southwards to Parit Nibong and along the Sungai Kerian river back to the coast. This box was held by Brigadier W St.John Carpendale 28th Indian Infantry Brigade consisting of 2nd Battalion, 1st Gurkha Rifles -Lieut.Col.Jack Fulton; 2nd Battalion, 2nd Gurkha Rifles - Lieut.Col. G.H.D. Woollcombe; 2nd Battalion, 9th Gurkha Rifles - Lieut.Col.W.R.(Ray) Selby; 3/16th Punjab Regiment - Lt.Col Henry Dawson Moorhead; 5/14th Punjab Regiment - Lt.Col Cyril Arthur Stokes; 10th Indian Mountain Battery - Major D.G.C. Cowie and 45th Field Company, Royal Bombay Sappers & Miners - Major J.R. Dinwiddie.

8 Lt Col. Blair Mayne, 9 Orde Wingate and 11 Robert Laycock RMASG's would use Penang as a strongpoint to conduct guerrilla patrols to harass the Japanese inland.

Takuro Matsui attacked the British Butterworth Box at the Muda River on the 15th of December. The British lost many men, mostly from 2nd Gurkha, but they were able to defeat the Japanese contingent that was attempting to penetrate the box. This first skirmish made Takuro Matsui realize that he could not afford to lose any more men. He became increasingly reluctant to attack again, and the British realized they had underestimated their enemy.
 
IIRC, Commonwealth forces outnumbered the Japanese in theatre, but the Japanese were able to concentrate their forces and had local superiority in numbers up until the siege itself.

The British here are better supplied, better led, and there are more of them. Holdings Singapore might be a tall order, but there may be enough fleet assets to cover a general evacuation.
 
Blowing up the causeway between the mainland and Singapore had delayed the Japanese attack for over a week. This enabled the Allies to establish strong points at eight chock-points near the northern shoreline.

The main assault began on the 23rd with a 15 hour bombardment on the Australian lines. A total of 88,000 shells from over 400 guns were fired. A counter artillery barrage as a response was mounted by the British on the coastline opposite the Australians that caused casualties and disruption among the Japanese assault troops.

The Japanese committed 2,100 troop to the initial assault at the mouth of the Kranji River, the dividing line between the two Australian brigades. As they crossed the waterway they were virtually annihilated by the defenders with only 185 reaching the shore. The British, unaware of the weakness of the Japanese reserves failed to capitalise on the failed first wave.

On the 1st February the Japanese intensified battalion-size ground probes and sustained artillery fire against the Australians. Mortar rounds and artillery shells, fell randomly, but incessantly upon the strongpoints. The February bombardments ranged from 100 to 150 rounds per day, with a maximum on 25th February of 1,190 rounds. Japanese supplies fell off due to 'commando' attacks by the Gurkha and Marines. However the opening of port facilities at Pekan reduced the effect of these actions.

The naval actions to the south-east dented the British capability to keep a supply line to Australia but ensured a safe run from India via the Karimata Straits. With the Japanese landing on Java on March 1st caused grave concerns in Australia as well as in Whitehall.
 
March 2nd The heaviest action took place near the Sungei wetlands in the north-west of the island. There, the presence of the Japanese 18th Division prompted a 22-day battle that saw some of the most intense close-quarters fighting of the entire conflict. intelligence estimated that somewhere between 1,200 and 1,600 Japanese troops were killed while 362 members of the Australian 22nd brigade were killed in action. Nonetheless, three of Brigadier Varley's infantry battalions 2/18, 2/19 and 2/10th were rendered combat ineffective during the battle.

During the night times British MGB's conducted raids across the Straits destroying much valued supply boats. It also became the practice during March that troops from the Australian 27th brigade often rode shotgun and conducted sabotage raids ashore.

HMS Champion, HMS Liverpool and HMS Newcastle arrived in Fremantle on the 20th March. They met up with light carrier HMS Pioneer, the AA cruiser Canterbury, the heavy cruiser HMS Exeter and 4 destroyers HMS Electra, HMS Encounter, HMS Echo and HMS Escort. Three large cargo ships MV Neptuna, MV Chilka and MV Nirpura. This convoy set sail for Singapore on the 28th.

St Nazaire raid as per OTL.

The RNAS began deliveries of the Supermarine 322 torpedo bombers on the 30th.
 
On 1st March 1942 the Japanese begun landing troops at Koepang and at Dili on the island of Timor, and at both locations met with strong resistance.

Summerville withdrew the Far East Fleet to Port T, to resupply and bring training up to scratch.

Supplies to Penang were flown in each evening from Trincomalee via Port Blair by RNAS Sunderlands. Actual fighting in the Butterworth box subsided as both sides consolidated their positions. RMLI and Gurkhas carried out reconnaissance in force, but casualties were light.

These actions were causing the Japanese considerable problems at Singapore. It became their priority to capture the city. Chinese and Malay women were to be abused as comfort women for the Japanese troops once victory was secured. To ensure victory they has to secure their seaward flank, so a force was dispatched to seize the Andaman islands. Distant cover was to be provided by Carrier Division 4, the aircraft carriers Hiyō Junyō, Ryūjō, and Tosa.
 
Light cruiser Yura, training cruiser Kashii, the escort ship Shumushu, the gunboat Eiko Maru, the minelayer Hatsutaka and 9 transports set sail from Indo China on the morning of March 1st.

With Summerville's fleet exercising mid-Indian Ocean only two armed trawlers, HMS Fandango and HMS Foxtrot, patrolled the Karimata Straits. The Japanese slipped easily past them and arrived in Phuket just before sun-up on the 6th. Here they met up with the light cruiser Sendai, and the destroyers Isonami, Uranami, Ayanami, A afire, Asagirl, Yugiri and Shirakumo.

Admiral Nagumo had his flag on the cruiser Chokai. Along with Carrier Division 4, the aircraft carriers Hiyō Junyō, Ryūjō, and Tosa; Cruiser division 7 , the heavy cruisers Kumano, Suzuya, Mikuma, Mogami and the destroyers Fubuki, Hatsuyuki, Shirayuki, Suzuva and Murakami from the destroyer division 11 steamed 40 nautical miles west of the Hinako Islands.
 
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