I think this topic deserves a deeper response. As always, my comments are predicated on my assumptions about, or interpretation of the thesis presented by the originator. My interpretation of likely events creating the conditions for a realistic possibility/probability of serious negotiations regarding the return of German colonies is a bit different. Timing is also a critical factor, windows of opportunity do not remain open forever. I start with two similar premises.
March 1917: The Revolution in Russia brings about the abdication of Czar Nicholas II, and the installation of a provisional government led by Prince Georgy Lvov. Prince Georgy, realizing the depth of popular discontent, not only with the war, both social conditions as a whole, sends feelers to Germany after assuming office on 15 March regarding an armistice. The Germans, anxious to rid themselves of the Eastern Front quickly agree, taking effect one week later. At this time the front runs from just west of Riga southward to points about 50 miles west of Minsk, and just east of Pinsk; then further south to the Austrian border, dipping inside before emerging in Romania. It is frozen in place pending a peace treaty, and while German and Austrian troops are freed for employment elsewhere, the Russians significantly demobilize to release manpower for domestic needs. The Allies decry this betrayal by Petrograd, and threaten retaliation.
April 1917: On 2 April 1917, President Woodrow Wilson in an address to a joint session of the U.S. Congress requested a Declaration of War against Germany. His request passed the House of Representatives on 6 April, but became ensnared in the U.S. Senate, where Senator Robert F LaFollette of Wisconsin led the opposition. In addition to equating British mines in the North Sea sinking ships without warning to German U-boats torpedoing ships without warning, LaFollette noted the collapse of Russia now required an American bailout of British and French chestnuts from the fires of war. He derided the Zimmermann Telegram as rather convenient both in timing and in source; coming from the British Government. LaFollette eventually gained the support of 13 other Senators in filibustering (lengthening) Senate debate. Wilson, in an intemperate mood, attacked the U.S. Senate rules, and the issue became one of Congressional prerogatives versus Presidential power. Eventually after 11 days of debate the Declaration of War was sent to the Committee on Foreign Relations, whose Chairman, Senator William J Stone of Missouri adamantly opposed war. As the chances of Allied Victory diminished, so too did chances of passage out of Committee.
April-June 1917. In the aftermath of extremely costly Nivelle Offensive, a series of mutinies broke out in the French Army. Although successfully kept secret, the poor morale of the French Army signaled a limit to military capabilities; and the failure of the Americans to enter the war as General Philippe Petain hoped, left the prospect of victory on the Western France in doubt.
June-August 1917: The Treaty of Konigsberg formalizes peace between Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, and Russia. Poland and Lithuania are ceded to Germany, with an eastern boundary not too different than Poland’s 1921 OTL boundary. The Russians withdraw from pre-war Austro-Hungarian and all Ottoman territory, the Central Powers from Latvia and Romania. Russia is required to pay reparations for four years, largely in foodstuffs and raw materials.
August-December 1917: Field Marshal Douglas Haig’s offensive, beginning with the Third Battle of Ypres and ending at Cambrai also failed to end the stalemate on the Western Front. Nevertheless, the German withdrawal to the Hindenburg Line left more of France unoccupied than since the Battle of the Marne in 1914.
August-November 1917: Although General Paul von Ludendorff wanted troops from the Russian Front sent to France, he was overruled (as in the OTL), and the initial waves of reinforcements were sent to the Italian Front. Once an offensive was launched, it resulted in the disaster at Caporetto. As additional Austrian and German reinforcements arrived, they engaged the Italians in the Battle of the Piave River from 13-26 November. Once the Piave was crossed, and Venice threatened, the Italian Government followed the Russian example and requested an armistice.
This left the Western Allies with only three fronts to face the Central Powers; against Turkey in Palestine and Mesopotamia, at Salonika, and in Flanders. The prospects of prevailing on the Western Front were dim. Without the United States providing warships and more importantly, merchant ships the German submarine offensive was at a tipping point of imposing starvation on the British Isles. An armistice was requested, and after diplomatic haggling finally came into effect on 23 December 1917. While the Germans, Austrians and Bulgarians agree, the Turks do not. British General Edmund Allenby entered Jerusalem on 11 December. Having declared jihad against the Allies, the Sultan and his government cannot accept any peace that cedes control of Mecca, Medina and Jerusalem to another regime. The Germans attempt to persuade their ally otherwise, but ultimately are not willing to continue the war for the sake of the prestige of the Caliph in Constantinople.
I have met two of the three metrics proposed by Flavius Iulius Maiorianus. The third, defeat of the Allies on the Western Front is simply unlikely in my opinion, there will be an Armistice before the Germans can muster a killer blow in the spring of 1918. But as Meatloaf put it quite succinctly, “two out of three ain’t bad.”
The First World War is the largest conflict on the European Continent since Napoleon, and the resulting peace conference is the most significant since the Congress of Vienna. The conference cannot be held within belligerent territory, it is not (yet) a victor’s or a vanquished’s peace. The Hague, in the Netherlands is selected as the site, it allows delegates from Germany, Great Britain and France rapid communications with their own governments with the greatest security. This site will later influence the outcome.
The belligerents come to the peace conference with some restrictions, for example, all combatants are exhausted by the war. Resuming the conflict would be extremely unpopular given the heavy loss of life among military-aged males. All are bankrupt, and government requisition of essential military supplies borders on theft and near-serf conditions among labour. Yet all belligerents have conditions they cannot accept and are willing to resume hostilities with popular support. For France, it cannot cede any Metropolitan territory; Great Britain cannot accept German control of any Channel ports (as so clearly articulated above); yet Germany will not accept a return to its 1914 western border. None of this bodes well for Belgium.
Nor are the Germans confident that a renewal of the war by them will not bring the United States into the war on the Allied side. The Senate vote was a close run thing, and not because of Germany’s diplomatic skill. In addition, should a German offensive in the spring of 1918 fail, the domestic consequences of burning a previous chance at peace will be grievous, and that will affect rank and file soldiers. In addition, the German High Command is keenly aware they are bearing increasingly larger burdens on other fronts due to the unreliability or lack of martial prowess of their Austrian, Bulgarian and Turkish allies.
As for colonies, they are used to being horse-traded like baseball cards. In 1898, the British exchanged Heligoland to the Germans for Zanzibar. In 1911, the French ceded 11,000 square miles of the French Congo to the Germans as compensation for their declaration of a protectorate over Morocco. As noted above, this is likely to continue, especially if it facilitates a resolution of Continental European territorial claims. However, a clean return of pre-war German colonies is very unlikely. This is primarily because Germany does not want them back, but will seek better ones as compensation.
The colonies in the Auslandreich to which Germany is indifferent include:
Kamerun – Plagued by an unhealthy climate, and in 1914 inhabited by 1871 Germans, 200 French, 18 Britons, ten Spaniards and 2,648,210 native Africans; development of the colony is in its infant stage. It will not be missed.
Samoa – Run until 1914 by a private company, Scharf and Kayser GMBH, Samoa broke even on exports and imports, but at about 5 million Reichsmarks (RM). The nearest coaling stations were in American Samoa and New Caledonia which hiked transit costs. The colony did not have much value.
Kaiser Wilhelmland – Another perennial disease-ridden money pit, the 1790 Germans in the colony were primarily independent miners. The colony had always run an annual deficit since 1885; in 1913 it was RM 2.6 million. The exception is the island of New Ireland, with an excellent port at Kavieng.
Mariana, Caroline and Marshall Islands – Also running an annual deficit of about RM 3 million, these islands were not thought highly of in Berlin. Again there is an exception, the Jaluit Stollenwerke, a coaling station on the island of that name.
The Auslandreich parts which Germany wishes to retain:
Togoland – the only “profitable colony since its acquisition, although construction of the 170 km Lome Railroad reduced that to about RM 250,000 in the last few years prior to 1914. It was also the only colony where German and native Africans had not engaged in major conflict. The Kamina radio transmitter is of vital importance to German communications to South America and the rest of Africa, the obvious naval application of that installation led to the British occupation within days of the outbreak of war in August 1914.
Deutsches Sudwest Afrika – with a population of 14,830 Germans in 1913 and some 500 pro-German Boers represented the second largest overseas colonial population. Very well developed, with a Government-owned railway known simply as the “Bahn” providing excellent communications within the colony and with South Africa across the Orange River at Upington. Mining is also well-developed, and local industrial infrastructure to support the economy was created. The port of Luderitz is also well developed.
Deutsches Ost Afrika – contained in July 1914 a population of 4856 German, 530 Boer and some 430 Scandinavian colonists. German investment there was also heavy, two modern railroads, a government mint which printed coins and currency for use throughout Africa, considerable agricultural investment as well as considerable latent mineral wealth.
Palau Islands – valuable for the radio center on Yap Island, able to communicate with both Dar-Es-Salaam in Deutsches Ost Afrika and Tsingtao in China, an essential communications link.
Nauru – The British-owned Pacific Phosphates Company operations there render the colony valuable.
Tsingtao – with a 1913 population of 16,962 German residents (excluding the military garrison) represented the largest number of German colonists within the Auslandreich. After 15 years of absorbing investments in millions of RM, the colony broke firmly into the black in 1913 with commercial exports of RM 42 million and imports of RM 38 million. With the Deutsch Ostasiatischen Bank headquartered there, Tsingtao was the center of RM 1 billion in investments ranging from India, through the Netherlands East Indies, China and across to Hawaii. In addition, in 1914, Tsingtao was the main distribution point for Standard Oil operations throughout China. In 1902, the Shantung Iron and Coal Mining GMBH was formed to control mining concessions in North China; it built jointly with the Colonial Government the 720 km Shantung Railroad; and in 1907 opened a small steel mill not only to support local needs, but also profitably exported steel products to the Philippines despite high tariffs due to lower production and transport costs. The port was developed into a third class naval base.
Colonies Germany wishes to acquire:
Sicily – Germany wants a significant presence in the Mediterranean, would settle for Libya.
French Morocco – as above.
Belgian Congo – a natural result of the conquest of its mother country.
French Indochina – all or in part.
Port Edward (Wei-Hai-Wei) – removing a British base from the north side of the Shantung Peninsula.
At The Hague Peace Conference, Belgium is the Gordian knot that must be cut first, and the country is partitioned. Part of the Third Partition of Luxembourg is reversed, and the province of that name is returned to the Duchy. Four Wallonia provinces, Liege, Namur, Hinau and Brabant are annexed by Germany, along with a small sliver of Limburg through which the strategic railway between Aachen and Liege runs. Germany has thus flanked the powerful French fortifications that thwarted a direct attack from Alsace-Lorraine in 1914.
The remaining four primarily Flemish-speaking provinces, West Flanders, East Flanders, Antwerp and Limburg cannot be controlled by the Germans because of British opposition, nor will Germany permit them to come under control of a hostile power. As a compromise, they are ceded to the Netherlands. While time has diminished somewhat the religious animosities that led to their separation in 1830, it is the late German occupation that persuades most Flemings to reunite with the Dutch. The Dutch also receive the Belgian Congo, in part to defray the costs of rebuilding damage caused by the German invasion, and in part because the Allies oppose a German belt across the African Continent.
This causes complications. King Albert, widely admired, is now a king without a country, although he will retain the title of “King of the Belgians” for the rest of his life. To solve this, and in an attempt to bring unity to the new Netherlands, the age old tactic of political shotgun marriages is revived. The 14-year-old second son of King Albert, Prince Charles, and the nine-year-old daughter of Queen Wilhelmina, Princess Juliana are betrothed, to be married after Juliana comes of age. Charles is chosen over his older brother Leopold to de-emphasize the Saxe-Coberg and Gotha lineage, and enhance the House of Orange.
Solving Belgium paves the way for horse trading Picardy and Flanders for colonies.
Togoland was returned by the British and French.
Kamerun is partitioned between Great Britain and France; and in return the French cede Morocco to Germany. This is viewed by the Germans as the correction of the injustice of 1911, and as unrelated to the European peace settlements. The Allied position generally prevailed, Germany did not acquire any part of French Indochina. The 99-year leased French Concession, Territoire de Kouang-Tcheou-Wan, also known as Fort-Bayard (expiring 1997) is ceded to Germany, providing undeveloped, but potentially excellent port and commercial opportunities in South China.
New Caledonia, with its rich nickel deposits is also ceded to Germany.
Settlement with the British Commonwealth:
The German claims to Deutsches Sudwest Afrika and Deutsches Ost Afrika were more difficult to reassert than appeared at first glance. While MG Paul von Lettow-Vorbeck’s army was still in the field, it was no longer in Deutsches Ost Afrika at the time of the Armistice, it had crossed into Portuguese Mozambique. South Africans had done much of the fighting in both colonies, and secure in the knowledge Germany could not mount a military expedition to retake either in the face of the Royal Navy, the South Africans were not prepared to concede much. Eventually, Deutsches Sudwest Afrika was ceded to Pretoria, with two caveats. The Germans retained an enclave around the port of Luderitz, similar to the British one that existed at Walvis Bay. Private property within the colony was restored to its German owners. In exchange, Deutsches Ost Afrika was restored, with the exception of the Kionga Triangle, ceded to Portugal.
The loss of New Ireland and Nauru by the ANZACs is viewed as a small price for the return of peace. In addition, the Germans are viewed as much as a barrier between the two Commonwealths and Japan, than as a threat.
Port Edward is also viewed as a small price for peace.
Settlement with Japan:
The Western Allies have no sympathy for the Japanese position at the Conference. Other than providing some material aid, and a flotilla of destroyers to the Mediterranean, the Japanese did nothing to defeat Germany. Germany’s demands were quite modest, all-in-all considered, and the cost of continued war without allies factors into the Japanese decision. With the Mariana Islands, the security of sea lanes to Japan proper were enhanced. Tsingtao is reluctantly given up, but one point is extracted. Within the text of the peace treaty, Germany explicitly recognizes Manchuria as a Japanese “sphere of influence” while Japan reciprocates for the Shantung. The real target of this Japanese demand is the hated U.S. Open Door trade policy in China.
The other two German Concessions in China lost are also returned. The Japanese occupied the German portion of the International Settlement in Shanghai, and now withdraw. The concession at Hankow, where a valuable arsenal producing small arms for sale to various Chinese factions was occupied by volunteer forces from the British, French and Russian Concessions.
Germany obtained no colonies from Italy due to the opposition of their “allies” in Vienna, who, along with the French and British, wished no German presence in the Mediterranean. The Germans responded by not supporting Austrian claims in Italy, the final line being just north of the Piave River. The Italians were also forced to return the Dodecanese Islands to Turkey.
Loose Ends:
The Treaty of The Hague was brutal on the vanquished Serbians. A small Greek-speaking section of Serbian Macedonia and the Autonomous Republic of Northern Epirus are ceded as a reward to King Constantine I for his efforts in May 1917 in keeping Greece out of the war. Parts of Kosovo went to Albania as compensation. The remainder of Serbian Macedonia went to Bulgaria, and the rest of the country to Austria-Hungary.
Montenegro escaped with her independence intact.
Turkey’s continuation of the war with Great Britain and France was based on confidence that Ottoman troops freed from fighting Russia would reverse the territorial losses on the Arabian Peninsula. It was a severe miscalculation. The differences between Germany and Turkey were quite stark. German armies were deep inside Russia, transferring them elsewhere was an acceptable calculated risk, in the event peace talks failed. Russian troops were deep inside Turkey, the Ottomans could make no such calculated risk until the treaty was signed in August 1917, and then had to reoccupy the land evacuated by the Russians to restore sovereignty. Thus, reinforcements did not materialize until spring of 1918.
On the other hand, the lack of a German offensive in France that spring, meant Allenby’s Army is not ordered to send two complete divisions, 24 infantry battalions and nine cavalry regiments to the Western Front, beginning in February. Indeed the reverse was to occur, allowing Allenby to successfully capture Amman, and then in June 1918 decimate the Ottoman Army at Megiddo in northern Palestine. Without any Turkish naval opposition, the French were able to land troops near Tyre in Lebanon, cutting a major supply route for the Turks. In July 1918, reinforced by Indian troops released from fighting in East Africa, the British resumed their offensive in Mesopotamia, where resistance collapsed. By the end of August the Turks sued for peace. In the ensuing Peace of Athens, the Turks lost the Hejaz and Yemen to Arab tribal groups; the OTL Palestine, Transjordan and Mesopotamia to the British, and OTL Lebanon to the French. They were lucky to keep Syria.
Comments, critiques, questions welcomed.
