French and British win at Arras (1940)

[hammerdin]

Guderian said that something such as a coordinated French attack into the flank of the German armor forces like what happened at Arras could have defeated the Germans. OTL it was not properly coordinated by the French.

What is the aftermath if the French had coordinated such an attack? German defeat?

I think such a plan has one other historical example, Manstein's Rochade, castling strategy at the third battle of Kharkov. Something NATO would later consider but never adopt as a strategy during the Cold War because it meant abandoning W. Germany to Soviet forces.

 

[Hammerbolt]

How big a win are you thinking about? Full on destruction of the german forces involved? Penetration into the german lines? Or Rommel & co manage a controlled retreat?

 

[Peg Leg Pom]

It would give the Allies time to catch the breath and stop just reacting to the German's moves. If the British and French can link up and stay in touch with each other then there is a chance they can take the initiative and get the Germans reacting to their actions. Would this be enough to save France? I don't know and I suspect the answer to that lies in Paris not at the front. If nothing else it should allow the B.E.F to evacuate at least some of its equipment through Calais using the Boat Train facilities.

 

[hammerdin]

How big a win are you thinking about? Full on destruction of the german forces involved? Penetration into the german lines? Or Rommel & co manage a controlled retreat?

That is open to discussion. The French in a best case scenario coordinate their forces for such an attack (it may be still implausible for the French to win). If Rommels anti tank defense lines fold then Kleists amor forces are encircled. Guderian and Reinhardt are included. However, the Germans were really good at combined arms defense for their armor and the infantry based anti tank defenses of this perioyd (as even during later era cold war where most casualties were expected to be from infantry antitank) are more than adequate of burning through tanks. The French/British would need to burn through many more times the number of tanks than they did to win against Rommel. Personally I wonder if it would make more sense to counter attack the German attacks Southern flank in Western France (opposite Arras) rather than the North if the French recognize the Ardennes as the probable location of attack. The Germans would fall for it in either case once the German attack kiccked off because they had no intel about the French reserve forces at the very start of the battle of France.

 

[Archibald]

The French had initial success at Abbeville (with De Gaulle), and the British did the same in Arras. Not exactly the same day, and not coordinated, and in both case the 88 flak guns saved the Germans. In both case the Panzers could do nothing against De gaulle B1bis and Gort Matildas.

I would say, if they managed to coordinate their respective attacks, then it is the very last time continental France can be saved.

If they manage to get a breach somewhere between Abbeville, on the coast, and Arras, and hold that hole for some days, the next step is really to "deflate" the Dunkirk pocket from the South. To get all the forces in the Dunkirk pocket go south, through the hole.

This troops were the best of France plus the BEF and many Belgians, of course.

They can then reinforce the "Weygand line" north of Paris. OTL Weygand forces were only 1/3 of the French army but with better tactics (hérissons) and more aircrafts they hold the Germans for three days before the line was broken.

Of course there is a very real risk that the Germans stop rushing north toward Dunkirk (since their encirclement failed) and turn south to take Paris early June.

 

[MattII]

Actually, it wouldn't need much more coordination, just a bit of luck, like Rommel catching a bullet (incapacitating or fatal), leading to the German command panicking as their guns do nothing and their commander is taken out.

 

[Some Bloke]

The French had initial success at Abbeville (with De Gaulle), and the British did the same in Arras. Not exactly the same day, and not coordinated, and in both case the 88 flak guns saved the Germans. In both case the Panzers could do nothing against De gaulle B1bis and Gort Matildas.

I would say, if they managed to coordinate their respective attacks, then it is the very last time continental France can be saved.

If they manage to get a breach somewhere between Abbeville, on the coast, and Arras, and hold that hole for some days, the next step is really to "deflate" the Dunkirk pocket from the South. To get all the forces in the Dunkirk pocket go south, through the hole.

This troops were the best of France plus the BEF and many Belgians, of course.

They can then reinforce the "Weygand line" north of Paris. OTL Weygand forces were only 1/3 of the French army but with better tactics (hérissons) and more aircrafts they hold the Germans for three days before the line was broken.

Of course there is a very real risk that the Germans stop rushing north toward Dunkirk (since their encirclement failed) and turn south to take Paris early June.

And once again leave the allies divided. However, if the French see that the Germans can be defeated through coordination and maintaining the initiative, it may persuade more French military and political leaders to fight on from overseas.

 

[duckie]

If you are talking about luck, why not a "just" in time air attack of Battle's on the German Gun line, not big enough to wipe them out but to create a hole through which the Matilda's can slip in to the German rear. A lot of the 88's can't relocate because of this and the German are in a very though spot to stop the Matilda's II

 

[Wimble Toot]

French capitulation is delay by 2-3 days.

 

[Simon]

Actually, it wouldn't need much more coordination, just a bit of luck, like Rommel catching a bullet (incapacitating or fatal)...

IIRC when he was organising the 88 mm guns into action at Arras to try and stop the Matilda IIs one of his assistants who was standing near to him caught a piece of shrapnel, if Rommel is standing a little off to one side or a shell flies slightly differently then he'd be out of the picture and German defences likely collapse.

 

[Archibald]

And once again leave the allies divided. However, if the French see that the Germans can be defeated through coordination and maintaining the initiative, it may persuade more French military and political leaders to fight on from overseas.

They weren't divided by May 22, 1940 when these events happened. The rift grew after Dunkirk, early june, when France was obviously lost, Great Britain had to think about their own security and future in a "No france left" scenario. And French leaders started to realize the scale of the disaster, and were unable to think about the country future, and the war. Three major events:
- the end of dunkirk, June 3
- german troops break the Weygand line, north of Paris (June 9)
- Paris is occupied, June 14.

French capitulation is delay by 2-3 days.

Depends. This happens May 21-22, France capitulated June 22. A lot of things can happen, such as Rommel being killed by shrapnel (as suggested above). The situation could turn to chaos.
It all depends whether the Allies can dig a hole into the bottom of the Dunkirk pocket and keep the hole (Abbeville - Arras, 45 miles wide) open long enough to evacuates all those troops (the 400 000 or more of Dunkirk fame), - not to Great Britain, but south, to defend Paris later.

 

[Archibald]

Essentially these two battles made into a single one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Arras_(1940)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Abbeville (De Gaulle last fight with the 3rd DCR)

OTL they were separated by nearly a week (May 21 and May 27).

funnily enough, look at the small city stuck between Abbeville and Arras: Azincourt ! Crécy is also nearby.
De Gaulle would really love the symbol. "Azincourt ? Crécy ? Time to take a revenge from history"

The French attack from the South, from Abbeville.
The BEF attack from Arras.
Distance from Abbeville to Arras is 45 miles, 75 km.
They must join in Doullens, right in the middle.

The the German counter attack is launched in a 20 miles front between Azincourt and Crecy (!)

 

[merlin]

IMHO - were the forces available at the time, even a combined operation would only have given the Germans a temporary setback. Though I think at the time the Germans over-estimated the forces against them. But an ATL with Valentines, Matilda IIs and some SPGs would be interesting to see what an impact they could have had.
Yet, for the BEF to re-focus itself from a two-thirds increasing constriction, to abandoning the security (such as it was) of supply via the coast, and withdrawing south would be more like a 'Falaise Gap' style escape for the BEF!!

 

[Hammerbolt]

Even with a considerable ground victory the germans would still be masters of the air. Mass Ju-87 and bomber runs, covered by Me-109s, would wreck the allied advance.

 

[Some Bloke]

That's true, and the British are unable or unwilling to commit their best units and equipment into that meat grinder, so I think the metropole will collapse sooner or later.

 

[Hammerbolt]

On a side note, what would be the political consequences, for Hitler, of a major ground defeat, both in relation to his relations with the army (which, afaik, had asked for 1-2 years more to prepare) and the german people?

 

[Archibald]

The AdA improved over time, although it was not until early June that substantial progresses were made. The British did their best, sending as much as the RAF as was possible without threatening their own security. spitfires flew over Dunkirk, how far south could they fly ? Abbeville is 100 miles south of Dunkirk. Is that distance too much for Spitfires flying from Southern England ?

I mostly agree with the fact that the Metropole is more or less doomed as soon as the Panzers reach Abbeville (May 20) and close the trap around the BEF, Belgian, and the best French armies.

Still the possibility of a BEF - French - Belgian breakthrough is a TL scenario that hasn't been done a lot.

A POD might be between May 20 (the day Gamelin was acked) and May 21 (a conference was held in Ypres with Gort, Leopold III, and the French).
Weygand and Gamelin were old farts, Gaston Billotte was killed in a car accident, hence the French armies were on their own for four days, until May 24.
Dare I say, as bad as Gamelin was, leave him five more days, until May 25, to get a counterattack from both North and South. Weygand lost too much time.

The crucial week was May 19 to May 26: from Abbeville to Dunkirk.

 

[LegionoftheUnitedStates]

The problem is that in the spring of 1940, French command and control is very poor, being dependent on messages and telephone, when the Germans were using radios.

Coordinating the timing of an attack is critical, but very difficult for the Allies.

They have to hit hard and at the same time and in enough force to hurt the Germans, and spook them about how far they are stretched.

It is possible, and if done could put a world of hurt on the overextended Panzer Divisions, and scare the German command into slowing them down, but it is unbelievably difficult considering how fast the situation was changing.

 

[duckie]

The problem is that in the spring of 1940, French command and control is very poor, being dependent on messages and telephone, when the Germans were using radios.

Coordinating the timing of an attack is critical, but very difficult for the Allies.

They have to hit hard and at the same time and in enough force to hurt the Germans, and spook them about how far they are stretched.

It is possible, and if done could put a world of hurt on the overextended Panzer Divisions, and scare the German command into slowing them down, but it is unbelievably difficult considering how fast the situation was changing.

What if the Germans stop themselfs? The Attack fails, but only the germans know how close they came to be cutoff. OKW pulls back the Panzer Divisons to reduce the dangers to the total campaign.

 

[MattII]

Even with a considerable ground victory the germans would still be masters of the air. Mass Ju-87 and bomber runs, covered by Me-109s, would wreck the allied advance.

One issue with Rommel is that he took the Blitzkrieg concept too far, which often left him out of contact with his own command. This means that there'll be a delay before the Luftwaffe can get involved.

So if the British play it right, they can fall back not to Dunkirk but to Calais, which both allows a better level of air cover (plus makes the Germans fly that bit further from their existing fields), and has better port facilities, so less material will be left behind.

What if the Germans stop themselfs? The Attack fails, but only the germans know how close they came to be cutoff. OKW pulls back the Panzer Divisons to reduce the dangers to the total campaign.

All the better for the allies, gives them time to plan a proper withdrawal.