France Without Chirac

[johnjcakos]

In his excellent timeline Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72 Drew incidentally refers to the French political situation in 1974. I had the opportunity to make some contributions (that Drew was kind enough to take into account) and it got me thinking: what would have happened if Chirac had been out of the picture?

Chirac was one of the major players in the 1974 presidential election. His support to Giscard (taking with him 42 deputies from the Gaullist party, the UDR) was key to the Gaullist candidate Jacques Chaban-Delmas defeat on the first ballot, and Giscard's election. Chirac got his reward and became Giscard's Prime Minister. From then he went on: leader of the new Gaullist party, the RPR, in 1976; mayor of Paris in 1977; candidate to the presidency in 1981 (and as such instrumental in Giscard's defeat); Prime minister again in 1986-1988; candidate to the presidency in 1988 (defeated by Mitterrand); elected President in 1995, re-elected in 2002. All in all, he dominated the French Right for 25 years, and managed to killed (metaphorically) all the potential rivals he had in his political family (only one was able to "resurrect": Nicolas Sarkozy).

What would France had been like in the last 35 years without Jacques Chirac?

So let's say that in September 1973, Chirac, then minister for Agriculture, has a fatal car accident (in OTL, he was in a car crash in 1979 and was severely wounded). Georges Pompidou still dies in April 1974 and a special election is scheduled. What happens next?

Some additional background: Chirac was at the time the pawn of two influential Pompidou advisers, Pierre Juillet and Marie-France Garraud. Both had an intense dislike for Jacques Chaban-Delmas (Pompidou's Prime minister from 1969 to 1972) and were aware of Chaban's ambition to succeed the ailing President. They were determined to stop him. The original plan was to back the then Prime minister, Pierre Messmer, and have him run as Pompidou's logical successor. Unfortunately, Messmer had no personal ambition. He only accepted Matignon because Pompidou asked him and because, as a former soldier (and a great Resistant, one of the first to answer De Gaulle's call), Messmer had a profound sense of duty. But he was never really popular as PM, too rigid, not enough charisma.

So plan B was to help Giscard d'Estaing (whose ambitions were well known) to be elected, knowing that in order to govern he would need the help of the gaullist party and could therefore be easy to control.

Chirac, the popular Minister for Agriculture, and then, from early 1974, the Minister of the Interior, was the perfect tool for Juillet and Garraud. But had Chirac died in the Autumn of 1973, would they have been able to carry on with their plan as effectively as they did in OTL? Who could have replaced Chirac? And would the destruction of Chaban's candidacy have been as effective? Would it have had an impact on the result of the Presidential election?

 

[johnjcakos]

The afficionados of French politics seem to be on holiday at the moment!

OK, following my initial POD, I suggest 2 possibilities to consider:

1- Without Chirac to undermine his candidacy, Chaban does better on the first ballot. He either manage to beat Giscard and to go on the second ballot, or he still loses, but a substancial percentage of his electors either abstain or vote Mitterrand on the second ballot. In both cases, Mitterrand is elected.

2- Giscard wins, as in OTL. Who's appointed Prime Minister?

 

[Captain Poplar]

I was on holiday indeed, but I was also too enraged by Sarkozy's last speeches to react on French politics.

However :

1-Chaban-Delmas is in deep trouble anyway : as a Resistant and a true Gaullist, he would have the support of the old Gaullist guard, which considered Pompidou as a traitor. On the other hand, the most conservative wing of the UDR, the Pompidolians (they exist even without Chirac), the SAC members, and a sizeable part of the center-right electorate were irked by the "New Society" program and thought Chaban was too much of a liberal. He was also involved in two personal scandals (the Canard Enchaîné revealed that Chaban didn't pay a single franc for the income tax from 1966 and 1969, and a nasty rumor implied that he had his first wife assassinated in a fake car crash in 1970 so that he could marry his mistress). His campaign was not very good either. So, even without Chirac, I'd say that many voters would either abstain or vote Giscard on the first round, eliminating Chaban in the process. And, apart from hardcore Gaullists who hated Giscard, the moderate, the free-tradist, the suspected OAS friend, I doubt many Chaban voters would have chosen Mitterrand on the second round. Don't forget that the Programme Commun was in place at the time, and many people thought that, should Mitterrand come to power, the Soviet army would parade on the Champs-Elysées the week after (the fact that the USSR actually favored Giscard over the atlantist Mitterrand was seemingly forgotten). Anticommunism would have guaranteed Giscard victory, unless Giscard does a big mistake during the last days, angers the Gaullist voters, and loses them to absention.

On the other hand, Mitterrand was on a roll on the last days, and the Communist party was, at the time, influenced by Eurocommunism, which meant it sincerely worked for Mitterrand's victory and avoided any extremist statements (unlike in 1981). Would Chaban undermine Giscard's position by organizing the UDR militants's massive abstention, Mitterrand may seduce centrist voters and win.

In both cases, the UDR is weakened after the elections, but, without Chirac, the Pompidolians lack the leader to attempt a coup and get rid of the Gaullist Old Guard. Garaud and Juillet would have almost no influence, except on orthodox, conservative Gaullists of the Pasqua kind. I'd say that, after tensions, the UDR would agree on a compromise candidate, like Yves Guéna or Alain Peyrefitte, Gaullist enough to please the grassroots but not hostile to the rest of the Right. Robert Boulin might be the rising star of the UDR without Chirac (or Balladur, if His Majesty ever accepts to enter political competition). Chaban would become a respected,but unheard figure within the movement.

2-Giscard is President : two options :

The future UDF does very well in the parliamentary elections and he doesn't really need to please the UDR : the Prime minister will be a centrist or a moderate. I'd say Lecanuet or Edgar Faure if Giscard wants to send a message to its electorate, or Poniatowski if Giscard only needs a good lieutnant that will follow his orders in the Cabinet (Giscard was as intrusive as Sarkozy for that matter).

Giscard really needs UDR support and agrees to have a Gaullist Prime Minister as a reward for the UDR alliance. Without Chirac, I'd go for the popular Robet Boulin, or for a rising, but politically harmless guy like Robert Galley. As a gesture of reconciliation towards Chaban, Giscard could also go with an old Gaullist like Olivier Guichard.

 

[johnjcakos]

Nice to have you back, Captain, and sorry if our president's latest outburst upset you - but my conscience is clear, I didn't vote for him!

Good contribution as usual, and I find myself in total agreement with you. I think that without Chirac, Chaban could do better on the first ballot, but not enough to eliminate Giscard. And Giscard would still win by a slim margin.

Robert Boulin was in my mind when I started the thread, and he had the perfect profile to be Prime Minister: a true Gaullist, a good ministerial experience, the right age (54). I'm only wondering if he would have been willing to go to Matignon immediately after Giscard's election - out of loyalty for Chaban-Delmas.

I'm beginning to wonder what POD would be necessary to elect Mitterrand in 74. "Kill" Giscard instead of Chirac? Have Pompidou last a few more weeks, or maybe lapse into a coma, thus giving more time to the left to gather momentum?

 

[Orville_third]

I'm not an expert on France in any period. However, outside of French politics, one major butterfly will result. Chirac was a major supporter of trade with Iraq- in fact the French-built Osirak reactor was nicknamed "O'Chirac". With Chirac out of the picture early on, how would France's relations in the Mideast change? Would France back the second invasion of Iraq?

 

[Captain Poplar]

Johnjcakos : that's fine, I didn't vote for Naboléon either.

Orville : No.

Although Chirac himself had close ties with various mideastern leaders, notably Saddam Hussein, French commercial and political relations with Iraq would have taken place anyway, as support for Arab nationalist regimes in Middle East was a part of the French "Arab policy", which emphasizes bilateral relations with oil-producing countries, support for non-aligned countries, secular or not (France has a long, lasting relationship with Qatar and the Emirates) against Soviet (officially) and American (unofficially) hegemony, special interests in Lebanon (France is the traditional protecting power of lebanese Christians since Suleiman and Franis the First) and support for an independant Palestine (which implies the right for Israel to obtain peace and secure borders).

Iraq, one of the major oil producers, one of the richest countries in the Middle East, would have been a important player for France in any case, especially when Iran-Iraq flares up. As a matter of fact, France's relations with Khomeiny's regime have been extremely hostile right from the start, the reason being that the Shah had invested Iranian money in a nuclar project in France, and that the French government refused any technology transfer or uranium shipment to Iran after the Revolution.

As for the French presidents...Giscard had a strong pro-Arab stance. Mitterrand, although sympathetic towards Israel, continued the same policy. Even if Chirac is not President, I don't see any of his potential substitues to join the war in Iraq, unless, maybe, Balladur (Sarkozy would have probably done it, though). It's not only Iraq. The US policy had the time was almost universally seen in France as dangerous for the world's stability, counterproductive and utterly stupid. No sane French President would have done anything different from Chirac. The style, however, would have probably been less abrasive.