Confederate Loss = Confederate Victory??
I wrote this on the old forum about a Confederate Loss at Manassas Junction:
"In OTL, First Manassas, though not decisive militarily, bore significant psychological and political consequences, many of them paradoxical.
Victory was worse than defeat for the South, because it inflated an already dangerous overconfidence. Many of the Southern soldiers promptly deserted, some boastfully to dispplay their war trophies, others feeling that the war was now surely over. Southern enlistments fell off sharply, and preparations for a protracted conflict slackened.
Defeat was better than victory for the Union, because it dispelled all illusions of a one-punch war and cause the Northerners to buckle down to the staggering task at hand. It also set the stage for a war that would be waged not merely for the cause of Union but also, eventually, for the abolitionist ideal of emancipation.
Now, suppose the Confederacy had lost at First Manassas...
15 July, 1861: General Thomas Jonathan Jackson, commander of the First Brigade of the Army of the Shenandoah, falls ill. He is bedridden for a week.
21 July, 1861: Lacking the stand of Jackson's First Brigade, the Union forces turn the tide of First Manassas. At the end of the day, the Union forces hold the field. Generals J. E. Johnston and P.G.T. Bearegard are sent reeling back towards Richmond. By the way, Jackson never earns the name "Stonewall" because he was not at the battle.
26 July, 1861: Ten miles south of Manassas, the Confederate Army is defeated again. Again they reel back towards Richmond.
3 August, 1861: Confederate President Davis, with the Union forces marching on Richmond, convenes an emergency session of his Cabinet. Two decisions are made: 1) General Albert Sydney Johnston, the officer most trusted by Davis, is ordered to take command of the Armies of the Potomac and Shenandoah. 2) Fearful of the capture of the capital, Davis orders the evacuation of the government from Richmond, moving them south, to Macon, Georgia [substitute Montgomery if you want although the side-effects of a Georgian capital are good >>>]. In this method, Davis hopes to gain further favor from Georgia, which is starting to become a thorn in the government's side.
13 August, 1861: Mainly through the actions of Generals Thomas Jackson and James Longstreet, the Confederate Army stops the Union one less than 20 miles from Richmond. The following week, Davis orders Longstreet to take command of I Corps of the Army of Virginia (Six brigades formally belonging to the Army of the Potomac), and Jackson to take command of II Corps (the Army of the Shenandoah reinforced by two brigades formerly of the Army of the Potomac). The new Army of Virginia is to be placed under the command of A. Sydney Johnston.
25 August, 1861: Johnston and the reorganized Army of Virginia defeat the Union force badly at Hanover Courthouse. With the Union Army on their heals, the AoV hits them again and again until they finally reach the town of Spotsylvania in late September.
13 October, 1861: Final organization of the Confederate Armies.
28 October, 1861: Troops of both Armies enter their winter encampments. Davis appoints his own military advisor, R.E. Lee as commander of the new Army of Tennessee.
Major Confederate Units as of January 1, 1862:
Army of Virginia (AoV)
Commanding officer: Lieutenant General A.S. Johnston
Units: I Corps of T.J. Jackson ; II Corps of R.S. Ewell
No. Troops: 60,000
Location: Outside of Ashland, Virginia
Army of Tennessee (AoT)
Commanding officer: Lieutenant General R.E. Lee
Units: I Corps of J. Longstreet ; II Corps of J.E. Johnston
No. Troops: 40,000
Location: Outside of Nashville Tennessee"
I don't think, given the status of the Union Army in 1861 and the quality of its troops and leadership at the time that it would have been capable of capturing Richmond. I think the timeline I present above is a much more plausible outcome of a Confederate loss at First Manassas.