The pod is simple: Hitler dies from his wounds after being blinded by mustard gas on WW1 and never enters politics, meaning that while there's several far right-wing groups causing troubles they never get to wield any serious power outside of working as a block. So for Germany there's no war as much as there's focus on regrowing the country, paying the debts and maybe renegotiating the military aspects of the Versailles treaty.

The USSR is paradoxically affected in the sense they won't be brutalized by the Nazis but also won't have the chance to expand their influence into Eastern Europe, I could see them containing their army reforms and industrialization programs and if the opportunity comes, invade the Baltics, Finland and Poland (in that order due to territory and strategic advantage they give).

Eastern Europe would be pretty reactionary still with all the fascist movements there who would be too distrustful of everyone, from the Italians, to the Greeks, to Poland, to the USSR and to one another, we might see a war breakout there between the countries as they each attempt to grab by force lands they feel are theirs.

Italy would have a better time overall (no WW2 means they can better hold on into Ethiopia), but would still have difficulties, especially if Mussolini decides to go adventuring in the Balkans again and facing off against Yugoslavs and Greeks who would territory from them(particularly Albania and the areas near Venice)

Britain and France are the big winners because they don't get devastated due to the war and can better recuperate... But they still would have colonial unrest (South Africa, Palestine and India for the Brits, Indochina and Algeria for the French) as well as japanese wanting to expand into Asia, so while no WW2, we might see them having to fight the japanese instead of the Americans in Asia and because there's no Germany making troubles, we could see Britain and France being much more harsher against Italy when they invade Ethiopia, which could possibly trigger a war between them.

Palestine would be a interesting place because no WW2 and Holocaust means no massive flood of Jewish refugees going there, so there's no massive resentment between the two communities only sharp tensions but it has better chances to smooth over.

Asia I could see becoming a major battlefield, Japan would still try to invade China(especially because a USSR who doesn't feel threatened by Germany is one guarding their eastern border much better) and get bogged down in the process but the question is if they would still attempt to invade the colonies of the very much not occupied or devastated Netherlands, France and Britain, I could see the japanese still attempting to do it given their "decisive battle" strategy they liked to use with the Allies having to better coordinate in order to defeat the japanese empire who wouldn't get the complete defeat it went through otl because the allies wouldn't want or could stage a mass invasion of Japan (especially because weakening Japan too much gives room for the USSR to move in and no one wants that).

But what do you think could happen?
 
Asia I could see becoming a major battlefield, Japan would still try to invade China(especially because a USSR who doesn't feel threatened by Germany is one guarding their eastern border much better) and get bogged down in the process but the question is if they would still attempt to invade the colonies of the very much not occupied or devastated Netherlands, France and Britain, I could see the japanese still attempting to do it given their "decisive battle" strategy they liked to use with the Allies having to better coordinate in order to defeat the japanese empire who wouldn't get the complete defeat it went through otl because the allies wouldn't want or could stage a mass invasion of Japan (especially because weakening Japan too much gives room for the USSR to move in and no one wants that).
If the atrocities in China are comparable to OTL, I think there would still be a war. Even if they don't make a move for French Indochina, sanctions at a minimum will be coming sooner or later, and don't forget that the western allies not being bogged down in Europe doesn't just have potential butterflies on Japanese behavior, it also means that they might not be as restrained in dealing with Japan as they were in OTL.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Concerning Europe, make the coup of Hans Oster in 1938 carry out, overthrow the Nazis, and restore the Kaiser

I think you need to overthrow Mussolini too to avoid World War II

(Make the invasion of Ethiopia end with a British-Italian war, as the British threatened, and end with a British victory, the fall of fascism, and Italy's loss of the colonies, and thus confirm the British power to make the war less bearable)

Germany takes South Tyrol

The effects are that the Soviet Union will continue to develop itself and undertake those great construction projects that were not built, and Moscow will become a utopia of Stalinist architecture.

(Rebuilding Moscow, the Palace of Soviets, the Eighth Sister, the Zaryadye Administrative Building, the Gate of the People's Commissariat of Heavy Industry, the Aeroflot Building, the Palace of Technology on the banks of the Moskva River, the House of Writers, and the Red Square reconstruction plan will be built)

He will invade the Soviets, Finland, the Baltics and eastern Poland, and he may succeed here (the restored German Empire will restore the 1914 borders

They will gradually establish a puppet state in Xinjiang, modeled after Mongolia

Hungary will remain vindictive, but they will not gain any rewards (unless the Soviets invade Romania and Hungary, Germany and Bulgaria pounce on the Little Entente).

Yugoslavia, Romania and Bulgaria, beyond the occurrence of the first scenario, will remain authoritarian monarchies

Greece will benefit that there is no invasion and therefore no Greek civil war and the monarchy is stable

Turkey does not win Hatay without France fearing an alternative world war, and thus remains Syria

Without the tensions in Europe, Britain will not tolerate the Tientsin Incident, which means a British-Japanese war and triggers the Pacific War.

The affected is the United States, because the recession will last until the fifties, and Roosevelt does not run or lose in 1940, and we see a Republican in the White House (Dewey or Lindenburg)
 
My POD is Hitler being killed at Beerhall Putsch.

Nationalist groups remain very divided. Germany is politically chaotic and economy is in bad condition but manage to fix itself somehow. Gustav Stressemann lives longer and manage to work more. German monarchy is restored in 1934 after referendum. Later Germany manage to annex Memel and Danzig. Polish Corridor and Polish Silesia anyway it can't get due Polish resistance and German-Polish relations are long time bad but they never go war.

Austria falls to civil war during chancellorship of Dollfuss and after the war Austria is annexed by Germany with approval of LoN.

Mussolini stays in power but without Hitler he is unable to do much. He might still invade Ethiopia but he hardly is going to act against Balkans. He anyway would increase Italian influence in Albania. Fascist regime would fall soon after Mussolini's death in early 1960's or at least soon after it has lost Ethiopia.

Soviet Union is still under Stalin. But since Europe doesn't see major war Stalin is not going move in Eastern Europe unles he is 100 % certain that the West won't intervene. But he hardly ever think that. So Finland, Baltic nations, Poland and Romania are safe. So he is going to focus to East Asia. And Stalin without WW2 would live bit longer. This has massive effect to Soviet Union.

USA would remain as isolationist much longer but eventually it joins to LoN but hardly before 1950's. Without WW2 civil rights movement and legistature is delayed at least one decade.

Middle East is really intresting. No Holocaust probably would butterfly Israel away. This changes greatly dynamics of the region.

China would be very different. Japan certainly causes lot of mess but things are now differently.

Decolonisation would still happen. It would be delayed and not so massive as in OTL but it would happen at some point.
 
Regardless of the POD, Japan is on the warpath and it needs some kind of war in Europe to distract the Brits and French long enough for them to steal their colonies. It needs patsies.

IOTL they were Italy and Germany, two powers left frustrated by Versailles and ruled by governments that also wanted to do some conquering.
ITTL, who would that be?
 
Regardless of the POD, Japan is on the warpath and it needs some kind of war in Europe to distract the Brits and French long enough for them to steal their colonies. It needs patsies.

IOTL they were Italy and Germany, two powers left frustrated by Versailles and ruled by governments that also wanted to do some conquering.
ITTL, who would that be?

Japan has indeed big difficulties find pals. Soviet Union perhaps but Stalin hardly is going to do anything what would draw attention of Britain and France. And them have probably some conflicting intrests anyway. Some anti-colonial movements would are pretty useless. Japan wants conquer China so not going get that too.

There would be serious re-thinking of strategies. Second Sino-Japanese War anyway begun before WW2. Things would go bit differently there. But without oil Japan would face problems. And Soviet Union might want its own peace too. So perhaps there is Soviet-Japanese War.
 
Second Sino-Japanese War anyway begun before WW2. Things would go bit differently there.
Yes, but it's predicated on Hitler being alive to remilitarize the Rhineland and Mussolini invading Abyssinia, in order to give the Japanese confidence that the LoN was not actually a serious organization and that they could leave with no repercussions.

Without that, any 2nd Sino-Japanese War would have to start differently too.
 
First: with Hitler dead in WW1 there no NSDAP and Nazis in any form, it would remain obscure socialist worker Party in Bavaria, that disappear after it founder died !
There will national forces in far right spectrum and Conservative, who in 1930s try to overthrow the Weimar Republic and install new Monarchy

Second: there will be war in Europa, question is will this become a Word War ?
Do Treaty of Versailles, Germany want revenge and their lost Territory and Colonies back !
On long term there will be War with France end of 1930s
It solely depending on New Germany how they invade France, over Belgium ? then Britain is force to intervene do there Treaty obligation to Belgium !
if New Germany not take Belgium, this could be again short conflict like 1870/71 Prussian/French War

Third: Mussolini Italy had it hand full with Libya and Ethiopia it will take far into 1930s and 1940s for Italy to get situation under Control there.
in mean time happen Conflict between Germany and France, what Mussolini try to exploit with border correction in west Italy
like occupy Corsica and Provence (even gain Algeria from Germans in exchange to there Allie against France in this war)
it possible that in 1950s Mussolini focus on balkan to expand Italy border eastwards

Forth: USSR is a wild cart in this scenario, it unclear what Stalin wanted
There strong indications that he pursue a isolate politic for USSR, while Russian historians claim he planned a 1941 invasion of Europa (doubtful)
Still with isolate politic for USSR, Poland and Baltic states would look for allies like New Germany,
it could got so far that Poland would accept Territorial lost to New Germany in order for there protection in case USSR could Invade !

Five: There will be a Spanish civil War, the question is who will intervene: New Germany? France? Italy?
Mussolini certain, New Germany ? don't known, like wise for France
 
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ahmedali

Banned
My POD is Hitler being killed at Beerhall Putsch.

Nationalist groups remain very divided. Germany is politically chaotic and economy is in bad condition but manage to fix itself somehow. Gustav Stressemann lives longer and manage to work more. German monarchy is restored in 1934 after referendum. Later Germany manage to annex Memel and Danzig. Polish Corridor and Polish Silesia anyway it can't get due Polish resistance and German-Polish relations are long time bad but they never go war.

Austria falls to civil war during chancellorship of Dollfuss and after the war Austria is annexed by Germany with approval of LoN.

Mussolini stays in power but without Hitler he is unable to do much. He might still invade Ethiopia but he hardly is going to act against Balkans. He anyway would increase Italian influence in Albania. Fascist regime would fall soon after Mussolini's death in early 1960's or at least soon after it has lost Ethiopia.

Soviet Union is still under Stalin. But since Europe doesn't see major war Stalin is not going move in Eastern Europe unles he is 100 % certain that the West won't intervene. But he hardly ever think that. So Finland, Baltic nations, Poland and Romania are safe. So he is going to focus to East Asia. And Stalin without WW2 would live bit longer. This has massive effect to Soviet Union.

USA would remain as isolationist much longer but eventually it joins to LoN but hardly before 1950's. Without WW2 civil rights movement and legistature is delayed at least one decade.

Middle East is really intresting. No Holocaust probably would butterfly Israel away. This changes greatly dynamics of the region.

China would be very different. Japan certainly causes lot of mess but things are now differently.

Decolonisation would still happen. It would be delayed and not so massive as in OTL but it would happen at some point.
In fact, the restoration of Hohenzollern means that the annexation of Austria will not be supported

(The anti-Catholic elite will return with Hohenzollern, and they are the last thing they want to have more Catholics in the country.)

So I might see Engelbert Dollfuss become an ally of the Germans against Mussolini, and the Germans might intervene to bring the Habsburgs back into Hungary.

Regarding Mussolini, he might try to invade the Yemeni Mutawakkilite Kingdom after Ethiopia

(It was increasingly falling under the influence of Italy)

Although this invasion may disturb the British greatly, because it threatens Aden

But they will often be silent

Regarding the Middle East, Israel is largely a product of World War II

Without it, it might just be the Republic of Palestine

Of course, the Middle East will remain monarchies, and this is a good thing because there are neither Nasserists nor Baathists, and they destroyed the Middle East severely.

Regarding the United States, the depression would last longer, and Roosevelt would lose in 1940 to a Republican, mostly
 
Regarding the United States, the depression would last longer, and Roosevelt would lose in 1940 to a Republican, mostly

Roosevelt probably even wouldn't run third term since no war in Europe. But yes, whoever Democrat is running, he is going to lost to Republican.
 

ahmedali

Banned
Roosevelt probably even wouldn't run third term since no war in Europe. But yes, whoever Democrat is running, he is going to lost to Republican.
Dewey, Charles Lindenberg, or Landon are candidates to sit in the White House


Without war, there is no restriction on the presidential term, and this is good news for some politicians
 
Dewey, Charles Lindenberg, or Landon are candidates to sit in the White House


Without war, there is no restriction on the presidential term, and this is good news for some politicians
Lindberg didn't show presidential ambitions IOTL and without his anti-intervention campaigning he will be even more unpolitical ITTL.
 
In Britain in event of no war the Tories are probably going to win the 1940 election, they are sitting on such a large majority from 1935 they will really struggle to lose and Chamberlin will remain in office until his cancer carries him off. His brand of moderate Tory reformism will remain dominant in the party and Churchill will remain on the political fringes. India is going to keep bubbling away and the absence of war will simultaneously strengthen the British hand but restrict their ability to make the OTL concessions. This seems like a recipe for bloodshed.
 
Japan has indeed big difficulties find pals. Soviet Union perhaps but Stalin hardly is going to do anything what would draw attention of Britain and France. And them have probably some conflicting intrests anyway. Some anti-colonial movements would are pretty useless. Japan wants conquer China so not going get that too.

There would be serious re-thinking of strategies. Second Sino-Japanese War anyway begun before WW2. Things would go bit differently there. But without oil Japan would face problems. And Soviet Union might want its own peace too. So perhaps there is Soviet-Japanese War.
Honestly I could see the USSR taking advantage of the conflict in Asia to support their ambitious, maybe an alternate Ribbentrop-Molotov pact between the USSR and Japan where Japan stays out of the way of them while getting grain and oil shipment from the Soviets, which would allow the money for the Soviets to upgrade their army earlier and quicker and proceed to invade Finland and the Baltics which much more success, Poland might be left alone for now because the USSR would be smart to not attack them and having to face a coalition of eastern Europeans, but if they could do something like they did with Germany otl where both agree to get parts of the country for themselves (Danzig and the Polish corridor and maybe Silesia for Germany while the USSR gets the eastern parts) but that could just lead to Britain and France declaring war on them both so it might not happen.

Honestly, I wonder if the US would join in too, the Philippines was quite the target to the japanese because of it's strategic location and resource richness, so the USA could get a small boom in the economy by joining the coalition of Britain, France, the Netherlands and China
 
Yes, but it's predicated on Hitler being alive to remilitarize the Rhineland and Mussolini invading Abyssinia, in order to give the Japanese confidence that the LoN was not actually a serious organization and that they could leave with no repercussions.

Without that, any 2nd Sino-Japanese War would have to start differently too.
Germany would still try to remilitarize sooner or later and much more subtly than Hitler did and in a smaller scale given they're not preparing for war against the whole of Europe, while Italy would still have many reasons to still invade Ethiopia (which would definitely spark a more aggressive response from France and Britain who aren't so worried about Germany) and the Balkans (which might lead to him facing off against Yugoslavia and Greece which could drag Bulgaria to Italy's side to help them because they want territory both countries have, 3rd Balkan war anyone?)

So Japan would still try it's China invasion, but with a more cautious approach given the western powers are more bound to react while the USSR can do the same given they don't have to worry about Germany (assuming the Soviets aren't preparing to invade the Baltics and Finland)
 
Decolonization significantly weakened. USSR still around in 2022 as a result.

Decolonisation would happen in lesser degree and later but there would be still lot of decolonisation. It was really expenisve for European countries and colonial subjects would demand full independence.

Not so sure would lack of WW2 help Soviet Union so much that it could survive to 2022. It might still collapse. And if Stalin lives longer (possible without WW2 era stress) he can mess things even worsely.
 
Not so sure would lack of WW2 help Soviet Union so much that it could survive to 2022. It might still collapse. And if Stalin lives longer (possible without WW2 era stress) he can mess things even worsely.
But hey at least 27 millions Soviet citizen / soldiers are alive and well as their descendants in 2022
 
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