Hideki Tojo deciding to launch the attack on Pearl Harbor and provoke the greatest industrial power in the world be like: “Am I a joke to you?”
España No Ha Muerto: If Franco brought Spain into the Second World War
- Thread starter Iggies
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Well, even ITTL, I don't see Franco being that paranoid. In OTL, he was very. very reluctant to join WW2 so he gave a diplomatically skilled refusal to Hitler by making unrealistic demands. He could just as similarly, if the rest of the Axis wanted to invade Portugal, do the same thing. I think in OTL, Hitler even wrote Franco a letter telling him to attack Portugal & unite Iberia as an incentive for joining the Axis, and that wasn't convincing enough then.
Well in this TL Franco's already in the Axis, has become a junior partner to Germany and there's already a German army in Spain because they had to help Franco take Gibraltar. So if Hitler wants to invade Portugal he simply will and Franco wants to get anything out of that he'll have to help.
Perhaps, though an already overstretched German army wouldn't be able to roll into Portugal without the Spanish backing them up in the region. So I feel like any time after 1942, 1943 at the latest an Axis invasion of Portugal without Spanish buy-in would be an out-of-reach option. The thing about the Axis is that they weren't very coordinated. So if Franco did this, then Germany would just think of it like Bulgaria not joining the war against the Soviets.
Or of the numerous assassinations by Reds and anarchists in 1935-1936 (many of each other), the armed rebellion of the Socialists against the Republic in 1934, the army's acceptance, if not support of the Republic in 1930-1935, and how the war ended when the Republican army rebelled against Communist influence in the government.
Seriously, this is over the top. Granted that the Franco regime would be a bête noire, this is a full-throated exposition of the class-war version of Spanish history from long before the Civil War. The attack on the Church in Spain is a particularly serious misstep. All anyone would need to do to destroy the film's credibility is bring up the gross anti-clerical violence of Spanish Republicans (they executed hundreds of nuns).
One wonders whether Romania, Hungary, or Bulgaria would get similar treatment.
Still I must admit it is very well done.
Uhh, Italy? "fierce and fanatical resistance" Really?
And OTL, Italy changed sides and fought against Germany. (Not very much, but some.)
I think it was in reference to those who fought for the Italian Social Republic, FWIW.
In the case of Hungary, an equivalent film would probably praise Karolyi’s short-lived Hungarian People’s Republic, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Bela Kun gets whitewashed in such a movie
Within the world of TTL, I was writing it from the perspective of a committed leftist if not outright communist who got a job in the OWI, as many did IOTL, and is probably still fuming over the Republican defeat (and who in turn probably got most of his info on Spain from pro-Republican Popular Front literature between 1936 and ‘39. ) There are a few bits in IOTL Why We Fight with left wing flavor. In The Battle of Russia for example the Horthy and Antonescu regimes are described as “reactionary governments” that invited the German Army into their countries to protect them from popular uprisings. This would be the most unabashedly leftist entry by far, though, and the screenwriter is liable to find himself in front of the HUAC in a few years time. You’re probably right that most plausibly, US propagandists world simply have strictly ignored the issue of the Catholic Churvh in Spain, but OTL Why We Fight loved neat little slogans like “the grandees, the bishops, and the generals” and it was just too good to pass up.
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Yabbut Spain's contribution to the Battle of the Atlantic would be huge. Though one thing not covered so far is what happened with the Canary Islands and Rio de Oro. If Spain and Germany can avoid a pre-emptive British invasion, they could be made secure for the Axis. Yes, this would be a strain on the Axis, but OTOH, in 1941 Britain can't bring much force to bear either.
And those territories would provide bases for dangerous attacks on British convoys to and around Africa. Italian naval forces, up to battleships, could base there and raid in the Atlantic. The loss of Gibraltar would not actually impede British supply to forces in the Middle East, because none of it went through the Mediterranean. However, the threat from Spain and the Canaries would force British shipping far to the west, and might even compel routing through the Panama Canal around South America or across the Pacific. That would hurt supply to the Middle East.
Also, aircraft from NW Spain could drive away British ASW patrols from the area west of the Bay of Biscay, allowing U-boats much safer passage to the mid-Atlantic. Or the U-boats could shift base to Spain.
It would also become much easier for Axis blockade runners to slip in and out.
OTOH, if the British got advance warning (through ULTRA or HUMINT) and managed to seize them, that would substantially offset the loss of Gibraltar. It would give the British substantial bases in an area where they were operating at long range.
The canaries are being occupied by the British rn, it was mentioned in one of the first chapters.
I wonder how Salazar would feel about this fate rather then what happened in OTL. Sure, he lived a lot longer and saw his dictatorship entrenched, but became a tired old curmudgeon who lived in a fantasy after being booted out of the PM's office, reading fake newspapers and issuing fake decrees, with his regime collapsing in inglorious fashion after chasing colonial glory long after saner countries had since given up.
However in TTL Salazar is a legend. He dies, presumably in heroic fashion as the supreme captain of Portugal, well-remembered by almost everyone. His face is still on the coins, in the plazas and on the city streets. Given Salazar's vanity and focus on his legacy, I almost think he would almost prefer this fate to slowly withering away like in OTL.
It's also quite interesting how Salazar is honored as a Righteous Among the Nations. Although the man was personally not antisemitic and rebuffed attempts at establishing Nuremberg-style laws, he did not particularly help foreign Jews fleeing persecution, denying most visas and making sure not to antagonize Nazi Germany. Given the PoD, he either had ramped up visas for foreign Jews while aligning closer to the allies, did something especially heroic to save Portugal's miniscule Jewish population of about 400, or both. Regardless, Righteous Among the Nations sounds a lot better then "personally not antisemitic but indifferent to the holocaust".
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that's not entirely true - after it had fallen on a chair (instead of the bathtub), its condition detirurated enough that any of its ministeries though he was a goner and choose Marcello Caetano to replace him - only to he to recovered quite well and wanting to return to rule; and said ministries now made said fantasy place just for him, without Salazar ever realizing up to its death
I read that and just forgot. Sorry. Still would like to know what happens with Rio de Oro. Also Ifni, which if taken by the Allies would have interesting effects on alt-TORCH.
Latin America: friendship? I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
Yeah. It was ratherly master-servant not so much friend. Speciality Central America states were just American puppets whose most important job was keep American Dollar Empire going and prosper no matter how shitty life of common people was.
Garrison
Donor
I suspect when it comes to the ITTL equivalent of Overlord Spain will be part of the Operation Fortitude deception because it is just too long and torturous a route from Iberia to Germany. Perhaps there will be an Operation Mincemeat equivalent to persuade the Axis that a massive invasion of Spain is going to happen? And speaking of the deception, what of Agent Garbo ITTL?
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org
Operation Fortitude - Wikipedia
Operation Mincemeat - Wikipedia
Juan Pujol García - Wikipedia
I'm not exactly sure how Portugal can be considered a 'breach' in the Atlantic Wall. They still have to fight tehir way through Spain, which has rather bad infrastructure.. And then through the mountains to go to France. The mountains would be extremely difficult to break through, just like the Alps. Italy also has much better infrastructure than Spain does at this point.
So at most Spain is mostly neutralized as an Axis member if the Allies attack in force, but that in turn means that the Allies have to support the civilians there, build up the infrastructure.. And it doesn't take them any closer to Germany and just lots more places to fight theri way through to get to anywhere 'important'. I don't see a lot of reason as to why Spain doesn't turn into a quagmire like Northern Italy did with the invasion never going anywhere.
So at most Spain is mostly neutralized as an Axis member if the Allies attack in force, but that in turn means that the Allies have to support the civilians there, build up the infrastructure.. And it doesn't take them any closer to Germany and just lots more places to fight theri way through to get to anywhere 'important'. I don't see a lot of reason as to why Spain doesn't turn into a quagmire like Northern Italy did with the invasion never going anywhere.
On the other hand, the same's true the other way round. With the growing opposition to the Falange, and the German need to try to prevent France being threatened from Spain as well as across the Channel, I could see it drawing in multiple German divisions, thus weakening them elsewhere.
The pyrenees make a good enough defensive position that you need just an handfull to division to keep the position till reinforcements come. On the other hand Churchill (supported by Stalin that will cry for a second front) will see going through Spain to reach France as much much easier than the OTL route as in the first case they can use Portugal as a initial base of operation and Spain is weaker than Italy while at the moment the North African front is still undecided and now will be more difficult than OTL
I think Juan Pujol García may play a role in this timeline
IRL he was a spanish exile living in Portugal who single-handledly persuaded the entire Nazi high command thatt he was a fascist spy, hiding in England
He was so good that he ended up winning bothe the German and the British military honors towards the end of WW2
ITTL he could pull something similar by pretending to collaborate with the Spanish invaders during the invasion of Portugal
Hopefully he will win even more medals from both sides
IRL he was a spanish exile living in Portugal who single-handledly persuaded the entire Nazi high command thatt he was a fascist spy, hiding in England
He was so good that he ended up winning bothe the German and the British military honors towards the end of WW2
ITTL he could pull something similar by pretending to collaborate with the Spanish invaders during the invasion of Portugal
Hopefully he will win even more medals from both sides