Divided Albania

NomadicSky

Banned
What if following the Balkan War Serbia, Montenegro, and Greece divided Albania?

I've created a ruff map based upon guesses of what might be an agreeable compromise. (although not for the Albanians)

I've given Bulgaria a greater share of territory, it seems fair in that although now shifted to the west, Serbia made other territorial gains.

This will give way to several butterfly events.

1912.png
 
Italy dont get no share? It seems plausible, as the nearest power(and the power that actually enabled the war), that they would get at least something. And Serbia is sure taking a lot...
 
Italy has got Austro-Hungary between it and Albania, which would make territory grabs difficult.

Perhaps they got a lot of economic priviliges instead.

Of course, given the example of Hong Kong, I wonder why they didn't insist on some kind of coastal enclave. Are there any significant Albanian port cities?

Given the sanguinary tendencies of the Balkan states towards Muslims, the Albanians living under Italian jurisdiciton would probably be the luckiest of the bunch.
 
Well the most major butterfly would be that if World War I does start as in OTL then Bulgaria is unlikely to join the Central Powers (Bulgaria would have had even more territory though than in the map you show as Greece got some of Bulgaria's 1912 gains in the 1913 Balkan war which Bulgaria fought in order to gain the territories agreed between it and Serbia for 1912 - which Serbia didn't give up because they didn't get Albania).

So with this split you butterfly away the 1913 Balkan war and leave the Ottoman Empire with an even thinner slice of territory in Thrace as presented on that map.

Bulgaria might well ally with Serbia if WWI happens and that could change the whole dynamics of the Balkan front and maybe the Eastern front and any Ottoman front if the Ottomans join (the Bulgarians invading Ottoman Thrace in support of Churchill's Gallipoli adventure?).
 
As had been said before, this division could mean no 2nd Balkan War and thus leave Bulgaria with more Macedonian and Thracian territory. This would also mean no Romanian Cadrilater, though we might still push them into giving us Silistra. But this is far from a given, since Bulgaria's anger at not getting Salonika could still lead to a new war.

Italy and Austria-Hungary were the biggest supporters of an independent Albania. Italy might be persuaded to change its position in exchange for Vlore (Valona) with its bay and as much of the interior as the Serbs had not occupied, as well as a promise of keeping Russia out of the Mediterranean (their biggest fear regarding a Serbian coast), but I don't know what could make A-H back off.

Montenegro would get Shkoder and Greece Northern Epirus.
 
Based off what maps I've seen on the internet this is how any such division is supposed to have turned out (approximately) - the OTL areas controlled by 1914 are left coloured in for comparison:

Divided Albania comparison.png
 
That triangular area in Albania is what hadn't been occupied by either Greece or Serbia (and I think it was meant to go to Serbia, or at least I don't think Greece was interested in it), if we posit that Italy got this slice (or most of that slice) of Albania in return for supporting the division of Albania then by 1913 or even 1914 the borders could have looked like this:

Divided Albania 1913.png
 
As had been said before, this division could mean no 2nd Balkan War and thus leave Bulgaria with more Macedonian and Thracian territory. This would also mean no Romanian Cadrilater, though we might still push them into giving us Silistra. But this is far from a given, since Bulgaria's anger at not getting Salonika could still lead to a new war.

Italy and Austria-Hungary were the biggest supporters of an independent Albania. Italy might be persuaded to change its position in exchange for Vlore (Valona) with its bay and as much of the interior as the Serbs had not occupied, as well as a promise of keeping Russia out of the Mediterranean (their biggest fear regarding a Serbian coast), but I don't know what could make A-H back off.

Montenegro would get Shkoder and Greece Northern Epirus.


Well reading up on wikipedia (always take with a heavy dose of salt), it seems that Bulgaria was supposed to give Romania Silistra as part of a pre-war agreement and in the end it took Russian arbitration for Bulgaria to stick to the agreement.
It seems that around that time many in Bulgaria's government just went mad or batty (could be evidence of real ASBs in OTL ;)) as within a year Bulgaria had managed to piss off just about everybody: Romania, the Ottoman Empire, the Russian Empire, Serbia, Greece and Montenegro. How much of this might be due to frustration over not getting the share of Macedonia that had been agreed to between themselves and Serbia and how much might be due to delusions of grandeur...well I don't we will ever know. Again from a heavily salted wikipedia serving it seems that during the 1912 Balkan War Bulgaria was even warned by Russia that should it take Constantinople then the Russian Army would attack the Bulgarian Army, but Bulgaria still went for it (now if all of that is true it would make an awesome ATL: Russia attacks Bulgaria during the first Balkan War over Constantinople).

EDIT: So if the division of Albania leads Serbia to honour its agreement with Bulgaria, then there might be no second Balkan war - Bulgaria seems to have been miffed about not getting Salonika, but not miffed enough to prevent one of it's PMs from signing an agreement with Greece recognizing the lines of control as the existed (in an attempt to halt a Serbo-Greek alliance). The collective frustration might be geared towards Salonika or it might not. Even if it is, in any TL with a divided Albania, the frustration may not be enough for Bulgaria to go to war with Greece. Bulgaria might even just hand over Silistra to Romania as agreed since they may not feel they were robbed by Serbia and thus opposed to giving away more territory. This could allow the 1902 Russo-Bulgarian alliance to continue and should World War I kick off then there would be Serbia and Bulgaria as allies with the Entente and Central Powers attempting to attract Romania. I think Romania would be enticed by the Entente Allies as they eventually were in 1916 and without Bulgaria attacking it from the south it could throw everything it had in Transylvania (Austro-Hungarian/German forces would probably have eventually stopped or even repelled them in 1917 though).
 
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NomadicSky

Banned
That triangular area in Albania is what hadn't been occupied by either Greece or Serbia (and I think it was meant to go to Serbia, or at least I don't think Greece was interested in it), if we posit that Italy got this slice (or most of that slice) of Albania in return for supporting the division of Albania then by 1913 or even 1914 the borders could have looked like this:

I like that, thanks for posting.
 
This is ignoring the Albanians. They will fight. They fought successfully in 1878 to retain lands given in the Treat of Berlin to neighboring countries, forcing the Ottomans to cede other territory instead. None of the Balkan powers have enough power to subdue Albania, and this situation is more likely to start a new Balkan War, not less, and maybe directly spark WWI directly. Greece only gets a little sliver of territory it considers integral, while a Slavic country get's the lion's share? Not only that, but Serbia has been given the most Catholic portion of Albania.

And Italy and Austria-Hungary would never, ever allow this. That's why Albania survived in the first place. WWI largely started because the Hapsburgs were distressed at the growth of Serbia. There might be slightly greater tolerance for Greece gaining territory, but this plan would bring in the Powers so fast it would make your heads spin.
 
This is ignoring the Albanians.

Well I didn't ignore them on purpose, it's just that the Albanians were pretty much pawns in the power politics at the time and Austria-Hungary and Italy paid attention when it was in their interests.

They will fight.

That is true. I would expect a definite insurgency throughout all of the Albanian inhabited areas against Italy, Serbia, Montenegro and Greece.

They fought successfully in 1878 to retain lands given in the Treat of Berlin to neighboring countries, forcing the Ottomans to cede other territory instead. None of the Balkan powers have enough power to subdue Albania,

But the maps I posted basically showed the areas occupied by the various Balkan power's armies after the 1912 Balkan war. So they did subdue Albania....unless I'm misinterpreting your use of the word "subdue". If you mean break any insurgency/unrest then I agree, they wouldn't be able to do it, but it you mean conquer the area I think they did that already.

and this situation is more likely to start a new Balkan War, not less, and maybe directly spark WWI directly. Greece only gets a little sliver of territory it considers integral, while a Slavic country get's the lion's share?

Why is it more likely to start a second Balkan war? How dissatisfied was Greece in 1912 with it's 1912 gains? Why would Greece sign an agreement with one of Bulgaria's pacifist PMs recognizing the 1912 boundaries if it wanted to readjust them badly and already had Serbia's backing in case of war and had Bulgaria basically turning Russia away? And would Greece really start a second Balkan war with Bulgaria if Bulgaria hasn't so disgusted Russia here that Russia hasn't renounced their 1902 alliance?


Not only that, but Serbia has been given the most Catholic portion of Albania.

As I said earlier, this is based on maps purporting to show the OTL areas occupied by the armies of Serbia, Greece and Bulgaria in 1912 which is what formed the basis of the borders (except for Albania) in the 1913 Treaty of London that ended the first balkan war.

And Italy and Austria-Hungary would never, ever allow this. That's why Albania survived in the first place.

I tend to agree, which is why any TL involving this would be extremely difficult (though not impossible I think as there is probably some POD that occurred which involved Italy's main movers and shakers). A-H in particular would be opposed and I doubt Italy would trade an independent Albania which could later fall under it's influence for a couple of ports on the Albanian coast. It seems more likely, however that Italy would accept that kind of bribe than A-H.

WWI largely started because the Hapsburgs were distressed at the growth of Serbia. There might be slightly greater tolerance for Greece gaining territory, but this plan would bring in the Powers so fast it would make your heads spin.

Well, any plan would bring in the powers very fast. They always got themselves involved. They all presented themselves for the Treaty of London in 1913 and then the Treaty of Bucharest in 1913 so no difference there.
 
Gora is mountain? i.e.Chrno Gora is Montenegro?

Why is Montenegro not part of Serbia, then, when it was the last bit to be split off in the break up of Yugoslavia.

Or am I confusing modern politics with period ones? or what?
 
Gora is mountain? i.e.Chrno Gora is Montenegro?

Why is Montenegro not part of Serbia, then, when it was the last bit to be split off in the break up of Yugoslavia.

Or am I confusing modern politics with period ones? or what?

Montenegro only united with Serbia in 1918. It was the last Balkan slavic state to fall to the ottomans (1499) and the first one to reemerge (1696).
 
But the maps I posted basically showed the areas occupied by the various Balkan power's armies after the 1912 Balkan war. So they did subdue Albania....unless I'm misinterpreting your use of the word "subdue". If you mean break any insurgency/unrest then I agree, they wouldn't be able to do it, but it you mean conquer the area I think they did that already.

They didn't subdue the Albanians, they defeated the Ottoman forces in Albania. Also, in Southern Albania, the Ottoman III Corps was still fighting successfully when the armistice was called. Not surprisingly, this was the corps that ended up defending Gallipoli. The Albanians didn't know what would happen or who to resist yet!

Why is it more likely to start a second Balkan war? How dissatisfied was Greece in 1912 with it's 1912 gains? Why would Greece sign an agreement with one of Bulgaria's pacifist PMs recognizing the 1912 boundaries if it wanted to readjust them badly and already had Serbia's backing in case of war and had Bulgaria basically turning Russia away? And would Greece really start a second Balkan war with Bulgaria if Bulgaria hasn't so disgusted Russia here that Russia hasn't renounced their 1902 alliance?

I'm not sure why you're focusing on Greece - they're never happy with what they have, but tend to settle and take a longer-term view. But that was the case when the territory they wanted was Ottoman - their hope was that it would eventually be theirs. Bulgaria and Serbia were never happy with anything.

One of the reasons that the Powers tended to resist any partitions of existing European states was that wars inevitably follow regarding the division of the spoils. There simply is no partition of the Balkans that would make everyone happy. There's a reason for the word "Balkanization"![/QUOTE]

Well, any plan would bring in the powers very fast. They always got themselves involved. They all presented themselves for the Treaty of London in 1913 and then the Treaty of Bucharest in 1913 so no difference there.

This is a little different in that you're talking about the entrance to the Adriatic, which is of absolutely critical importance to both Italy and A-H. Neither want this in the hands of an expansionist Balkan State. The last thing the Hapsburgs would ever accept is Serbia in a position to attack access to the sea. Also, Hapsburg policy was very much centered on preventing Serbian access to the sea, even to the point that it refused to allow construction of a rail line to the Adriatic that went anywhere near Serbia.

This map sort of underscores how hopeless any division of the Balkans would have been:

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/balkan_aspirations_1914.jpg
 
They didn't subdue the Albanians, they defeated the Ottoman forces in Albania. Also, in Southern Albania, the Ottoman III Corps was still fighting successfully when the armistice was called. Not surprisingly, this was the corps that ended up defending Gallipoli. The Albanians didn't know what would happen or who to resist yet!

Which is as I said - they didn't (and couldn't subdue) an Albanian insurgency but did conquer the area.

Technically you said they couldn't subdue Albania which is where the ambiguity comes in since it could be referring to Albania the land or Albania the nation.


I'm not sure why you're focusing on Greece - they're never happy with what they have, but tend to settle and take a longer-term view. But that was the case when the territory they wanted was Ottoman - their hope was that it would eventually be theirs. Bulgaria and Serbia were never happy with anything.

I only focused on Greece because you did.

One of the reasons that the Powers tended to resist any partitions of existing European states was that wars inevitably follow regarding the division of the spoils. There simply is no partition of the Balkans that would make everyone happy. There's a reason for the word "Balkanization"!

Not sure why you are preaching to the choir here. Nobody said everyone would be happy. However there was a pre-Balkan War agreement between Serbia and Bulgaria with regards to Macedonia (which was assumed Serbia would take Albania) and NomadicSky's question surrounds the WI wherein that agreement is completely fulfilled. Of course Bulgaria and Serbia and Greece and Romania and the Albanians and Italy and the Ottomans and the Austro-Hungarians will all find some reason to be in huff, just as they did in OTL.

This is a little different in that you're talking about the entrance to the Adriatic, which is of absolutely critical importance to both Italy and A-H. Neither want this in the hands of an expansionist Balkan State. The last thing the Hapsburgs would ever accept is Serbia in a position to attack access to the sea. Also, Hapsburg policy was very much centered on preventing Serbian access to the sea, even to the point that it refused to allow construction of a rail line to the Adriatic that went anywhere near Serbia.

This map sort of underscores how hopeless any division of the Balkans would have been:

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/historical/balkan_aspirations_1914.jpg

I remember that map. U of Texas is a great site isn't it? :D
 
Not sure why you are preaching to the choir here. Nobody said everyone would be happy. However there was a pre-Balkan War agreement between Serbia and Bulgaria with regards to Macedonia (which was assumed Serbia would take Albania) and NomadicSky's question surrounds the WI wherein that agreement is completely fulfilled. Of course Bulgaria and Serbia and Greece and Romania and the Albanians and Italy and the Ottomans and the Austro-Hungarians will all find some reason to be in huff, just as they did in OTL.

The problem is that all these agreements were vague, and then there's the issue of who was doing the heavy-lifting in any given area. The Serbs did all the fighting for Macedonia, the Bulgarians mostly fought in Thrace, and Greece didn't really fight much at all and just marched in opportunistically.

You would have to have Serbia give up the area that it shed blood for, and even then, everyone will argue greatly about the delimitation of borders.

What I'm saying is that this arrangement isn't any more stable, practicable, or likely to result in war than the OTL arrangement. Example: There are certain to be Albanian insurgents. The surrounding states are 100% likely to exploit these for their own purposes, and their neighbors are going to regard this with paranoia. The Bulgarians will see the hand of Greece in every Albanian attack, etc.
 
The problem is that all these agreements were vague, and then there's the issue of who was doing the heavy-lifting in any given area. The Serbs did all the fighting for Macedonia, the Bulgarians mostly fought in Thrace, and Greece didn't really fight much at all and just marched in opportunistically.

Well there weren't many agreements to beginwith. The only ones seemed to have been one between Romania and Bulgaria where Bulgaria was to cede Silistra in exchange for Romanian neutrality in the war and an agreement between Bulgaria and Serbia over a border in Macedonia which seemed to have been definitely delineated (at the very least everything south of a line running from Kriva Palanka to Ohrid was definitely agreed to be Bulgarian). Neither were that vague really.

You would have to have Serbia give up the area that it shed blood for,

Which was the intention until Serbia had to evacuate Albania.

and even then, everyone will argue greatly about the delimitation of borders.

Did they argue greatly over the borders other than Silistra and the pre-war Serbian-Bulgarian agreement in OTL?

What I'm saying is that this arrangement isn't any more stable, practicable, or likely to result in war than the OTL arrangement. Example: There are certain to be Albanian insurgents. The surrounding states are 100% likely to exploit these for their own purposes, and their neighbors are going to regard this with paranoia. The Bulgarians will see the hand of Greece in every Albanian attack, etc.

Why would the Albanians attack Bulgarian forces and Bulgaria? I agree that there are almost certain to be Albanian insurgents (in fact, weren't there Albanian insurgents already who were attempting to gain independence from the Ottomans?), but in the basic line in the pre-war agreement between Serbia and Bulgaria the only area with any Albanians I can think of that would fall to Bulgarian control according to that agreement is Ohrid/Ohri and even there Albanians don't seem to have been in a majority as one figure I've seen (which I take with salt) is that by the end of the 19th century 45% of the inhabitants were Muslim which of course means they could be all Turks, all Albanians or Turks and Albanians (I think it is more likely to be the third possibility). Bulgaria looks like it would be last on the hit-list of most Albanian insurgents.

Albanian insurgents would without a doubt attack Serbia and Greece (and probably Italy since giving Italy direct control over unoccupied Albania and thus direct control over the entrance of the Adriatic seems to be the only, remotely possible way to get Italy to drop it's support of A-H's position on Albania) and each state is very likely to support a different group of insurgents. It's more likely that Serbia will end up seeing A-H's hand behind every Albanian insurgent just as how A-H saw Serbia's hand behind every south Slav insurgent/assassin (no matter how tenuous or even doubtful) - this could result in an entirely different trigger for World War I actually, or at least a slightly different unfolding of events if Franz Ferdinand is still assassinated in Sarajevo. It's also possible that some (or in a much more unlikely situation, all) of the states involved could end up replicating the conduct of Prussia, Austria and Russia with regards to Poland: they may be suspicious of each other and have open disagreements, but will have a tacit (and at times open) agreement directed against the independence of the subjugated nationality in question. If Serbia had given up the area of Macedonia promised to Bulgaria, it may be possible that Serbia and Bulgaria could well come to new agreement directed against Albanian insurgents.

One could also expect that Serbia and A-H might well come to an agreement whereby A-H end's support for Albanian insurgents in return for Serbia ending support for south slav agitators and suddenly a major fuse has been cut, but I doubt it. Can't see either one be willing to make the first move in such an arrangement (unlike say an arrangement between Serbia and Greece against insurgents that they face in common).
 
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