De-colonization of Brazil if Pedro I sided with Portugal?
- Thread starter EasternRomanEmpire
- Start date
It depends on whether the elites of Brazil (which tbf were fairly integrated into Portuguese politics and society) would feel that some equality between them and their Portuguese peers would exist. If it doesn't, Brazil would likely balkanize into multiple republics in the 1830s/40s. If it does, there's a good chance that outside of some wars and revolts, Brazil would remain a somewhat equal partner to Portugal, even if the latter has the capital and the Constitution on their side
This depends on a few factors, but the short answer is very little time. Dom Pedro was warned by his father that the time of Portugal's control over Brazil was ending and that he wanted Brazil to be under the royal house. So better his son than someone else.
So, here's my take:
IIRC, while Pedro is often lionized as the Father of Brazilian Independence, his position as Brazil's defender and fighter was greatly influenced by his first wife, Maria Leopoldina of Austria. When Pedro became Regent of Brazil in 1821, the situation was chaotic: he had no true control over the situation as the Regency Council had ample powers to counteract Pedro's powers. Portuguese troops overall were position to dominate the situation. Maria Leopoldina, despite being raised in a conservative and absolutist environment quickly became a supporter of the liberal side, an she warmly espoused the Brazilian cause from very early on.
Dom Pedro had no real political experience c. 1821—his wife was the one who saw them remaining in Brazil as a valuable position, allowing them to be figureheads of the autonomist movement. Maria Leopoldina saw their staying behind in Brazil as necessary for the defense of dynastic legitimacy—the very same views that were espoused at the Congress of Vienna that sought to unmake the changes wrought since 1789. She saw the House of Braganza in the person of Dom Pedro and herself as fount against liberal excesses. Pedro on the other hand was constantly writing to his father, begging to be released from his position as regent and begged that he and his family should be allowed to return to Portugal. In September 1821 Pedro wrote to John VI, barely six months after his departure from Brazil: "I beg Your Majesty most urgently to release me from this onerous task."
Maria Leopoldina was supported in her efforts by José Bonifácio de Andrada and they both played a vital role in convincing Dom Pedro to stay. Their argument was that Pedro and Maria Leopoldina remaining in Brazil was the only thing that would protect Brazil's territorial integrity. This is what led to Pedro's famous declaration of "Fico!" ("I am staying!") in January of 1822. Maria Leopoldina made a choice that would keep her (and her family) in Brazil indefinitely—she would be separated from her father, siblings, and other family members by the Atlantic Ocean. Some 8000 people also signed a declaration asking that Pedro stay.
The funny thing is that by 1822, Pedro's choice to stay provoked unrest from the Portuguese Cortes, which since 1821 had been asking for Pedro's return. Though the Constituent Cortes of 1820 had Brazilian delegates, their numbers were small and the Portuguese were pretty intent on reducing Brazil's status back to a colony. In 1821 they abolished Brazil's provincial courts and governments. They were large gaps between what the Portuguese sought and what the Brazilian delegates sought: Brazilian representatives wanted a dual-monarchy between Portugal and Brazil with federated elements within a single empire; the Portuguese desired a unitary state, similar to what had existed prior to the Portuguese court fleeing to Brazil. Trade relations also proved troublesome, as there were massive disagreements. IIRC, the Cortes appointed six Portuguese delegates and six Brazilian delegations to make up a special commission to resolve differences between Portuguese views vs. Brazilian views. At the end of the day though, Portuguese delegates dominate the 1820 Cortes: while there was a group of radical liberals that tried to work with the Brazilian Party composed of the Brazilian deputies, Brazil only had 49 deputies. They were not allowed to speak and had no real influence over the course of the Cortes. They were also mistreated and heckled in the streets of Lisbon.
Pedro leaving will remove a vital figurehead from the autonomist / independentist movement in Brazil. Pedro cannot effectively support the Brazilian movement from Lisbon, and without his feet on the ground it means that perhaps the movement takes on a more republican character, especially when the Portuguese prove stringent in their demands to restore things back to the way they are. There is no stomach for the Brazilian vision of a federal dual-monarchy among the Portuguese: the United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil, and the Algarve is all but a dead letter, and the Portuguese will use their numbers and dominate to impose their vision for Portugal as well as Brazil: which means trying to turn it back into a colony.
IMO if Pedro leaves, Brazil will likely be independent by the early to mid-1820s. The Empire was first declared in 1822 with him around, so perhaps 1823-1825, especially if the Portuguese try and remain and impose their ideas militarily.
IIRC, while Pedro is often lionized as the Father of Brazilian Independence, his position as Brazil's defender and fighter was greatly influenced by his first wife, Maria Leopoldina of Austria. When Pedro became Regent of Brazil in 1821, the situation was chaotic: he had no true control over the situation as the Regency Council had ample powers to counteract Pedro's powers. Portuguese troops overall were position to dominate the situation. Maria Leopoldina, despite being raised in a conservative and absolutist environment quickly became a supporter of the liberal side, an she warmly espoused the Brazilian cause from very early on.
Dom Pedro had no real political experience c. 1821—his wife was the one who saw them remaining in Brazil as a valuable position, allowing them to be figureheads of the autonomist movement. Maria Leopoldina saw their staying behind in Brazil as necessary for the defense of dynastic legitimacy—the very same views that were espoused at the Congress of Vienna that sought to unmake the changes wrought since 1789. She saw the House of Braganza in the person of Dom Pedro and herself as fount against liberal excesses. Pedro on the other hand was constantly writing to his father, begging to be released from his position as regent and begged that he and his family should be allowed to return to Portugal. In September 1821 Pedro wrote to John VI, barely six months after his departure from Brazil: "I beg Your Majesty most urgently to release me from this onerous task."
Maria Leopoldina was supported in her efforts by José Bonifácio de Andrada and they both played a vital role in convincing Dom Pedro to stay. Their argument was that Pedro and Maria Leopoldina remaining in Brazil was the only thing that would protect Brazil's territorial integrity. This is what led to Pedro's famous declaration of "Fico!" ("I am staying!") in January of 1822. Maria Leopoldina made a choice that would keep her (and her family) in Brazil indefinitely—she would be separated from her father, siblings, and other family members by the Atlantic Ocean. Some 8000 people also signed a declaration asking that Pedro stay.
The funny thing is that by 1822, Pedro's choice to stay provoked unrest from the Portuguese Cortes, which since 1821 had been asking for Pedro's return. Though the Constituent Cortes of 1820 had Brazilian delegates, their numbers were small and the Portuguese were pretty intent on reducing Brazil's status back to a colony. In 1821 they abolished Brazil's provincial courts and governments. They were large gaps between what the Portuguese sought and what the Brazilian delegates sought: Brazilian representatives wanted a dual-monarchy between Portugal and Brazil with federated elements within a single empire; the Portuguese desired a unitary state, similar to what had existed prior to the Portuguese court fleeing to Brazil. Trade relations also proved troublesome, as there were massive disagreements. IIRC, the Cortes appointed six Portuguese delegates and six Brazilian delegations to make up a special commission to resolve differences between Portuguese views vs. Brazilian views. At the end of the day though, Portuguese delegates dominate the 1820 Cortes: while there was a group of radical liberals that tried to work with the Brazilian Party composed of the Brazilian deputies, Brazil only had 49 deputies. They were not allowed to speak and had no real influence over the course of the Cortes. They were also mistreated and heckled in the streets of Lisbon.
Pedro leaving will remove a vital figurehead from the autonomist / independentist movement in Brazil. Pedro cannot effectively support the Brazilian movement from Lisbon, and without his feet on the ground it means that perhaps the movement takes on a more republican character, especially when the Portuguese prove stringent in their demands to restore things back to the way they are. There is no stomach for the Brazilian vision of a federal dual-monarchy among the Portuguese: the United Kingdom of Portugal, Brazil, and the Algarve is all but a dead letter, and the Portuguese will use their numbers and dominate to impose their vision for Portugal as well as Brazil: which means trying to turn it back into a colony.
IMO if Pedro leaves, Brazil will likely be independent by the early to mid-1820s. The Empire was first declared in 1822 with him around, so perhaps 1823-1825, especially if the Portuguese try and remain and impose their ideas militarily.
Another interesting possibility is that he dies and Leopoldia, pregnant or with a child, leads to the Brazilian revolt.
Their first son, João Carlos, the Prince of Beira was born in March 1821—though he died in February 1822 (not sure of what). If he survives, there's a potential figurehead right there that Maria Leopoldine can serve as regent for. If he still dies and Pedro dies sometime in 1822, there are still their daughters: Maria da Glória (b. 1819; the OTL Maria II of Portugal) and then Januária (b. 1822) who was sometimes called the Princesa da Independência (Princess of Independence). Considering Portugal had a history of female succession (John VI had succeeded his mother Maria) the lack of a son is not necessarily a disqualifier—both princesses are born in Rio de Janeiro and Maria II was considered part of the Brazilian Imperial Family even she became Queen of Portugal... iirc she was not definitively excluded until 1835.
It would definitely have an interesting outcome re: Portugal. Maria Leopoldina as head of the Brazilian autonomist movement seeking to protect the rights of her daughters will likely focus on Brazil. This means that after John VI's death, Dom Miguel likely becomes King of Portugal—without the OTL troubles that saw him betrothed to Maria II and named her regent, with the expectation that he would respect Pedro's Constitutional Charter. This could have big changes in Portugal—and likely fuel for Portugal's liberal movement, too. Liberal propagandists IOTL spread rumors that Miguel was not actually John VI's son, sources close to John VI allegedly confirmed that John VI and his wife Carlota Joaquina had not slept together in over two years when Miguel was born owing to the so-called Conjugal War between the two, when they were involved in political conspiracies against each other and only met only formal occasions.
Miguel was always accepted by John VI as his son, but liberals in Portugal will not doubt seek to exploit those rumors... though without Pedro there is no real figurehead for the liberal movement there, as Pedro and Miguel were John VI's only sons. The Infanta Maria Teresa was an archconservative and later married Carlos of Molina, who claimed the Spanish throne against Isabella II. Maria Isabel married Ferdinand VII of Spain and died in 1818. Maria Francisca was Carlos of Molina's first wife, married in 1816. Isabel Maria served as Regent of Portugal for a brief period IOTL (1826-1828) but she never married and was fairly religious; she didn't involve herself in politics beyond her stint as regent. Maria da Assunção (b. 1805) never married and died in 1834; Ana (b. 1806) married the Marquis of Loulé in 1827—it was considered scandalous at the time as he was a nobleman despite his remote descent from Portugal's Royal Dynasty. It likely wasn't a political match, as Ana gave birth to their first child twenty-two days later. The marriage didn't receive royal sanction (neither from John VI who died in 1826, nor Pedro or Miguel) but it wasn't an elopement as the royal family were aware and Ana's mother facilitated the marriage (likely to ensure they were married before Ana gave birth). Ana and her husband were exiled in 1831 when Miguel restored Absolutism, but they separated c. 1835. I don't know much of Loulé's political views, though he did head a liberal political party in the 1850s and served as Prime Minister a few times through the 1850s and the 1860s. Regardless, given the beginnings of Loulé and Ana's marriage, I'm not sure they could become the new standard bearers of Portugal's liberal movement... Pedro's death likely means there is no one to take on that mantle, and his death means there is no one to support the candidacy of either of his daughters as Portugal's Queen over Miguel.
I would say no, Miguel was an irridentist absolutist (his mother's fault). When he is on the throne he will want to revert to the absolutist kingdom, which will generate a lot of instability. The result of this is difficult to say, but if Leopoldina plays it right, this would be the time to separate Brazil from Portugal, with the king and parliament ready to kill each other.
I mean not only in Portugal, Miguel was considered a bastard with no royal blood by a large part of the elite. A rise of Portuguese republicans is something that could happen.
Well, I was discussing his OTL troubles. IATL, no Pedro means Miguel can directly succeed John VI.
Portugal's liberal constitution enacted in 1822 only remained in effect for a few months; the traditional pillars of society had no confidence in the constitutional project and agitated for a return to absolutism. In 1823 the Holy Alliance authorized the French to invade Spain to put down the liberal government there, which helped motivate the Portuguese Absolutists, with the Count of Amarante leading a revolt in northern Portugal. Carlota Joaquina her followers were also pushed into open revolt, as they were confident of receiving French support. Miguel himself went to Vila Franca, where he was joined by the 23rd Infantry Regiment. Both Queen Carlota and Miguel were prepared to force John VI to abdicate if necessary, but John VI decided to take command over the revolt himself—encouraged by the 18th Infantry Regiment that came to Bemposta Palace to acclaim him as absolute ruler. From there, John VI went to Vila Franca and received Miguel's submission. The political climate was so undecided that even the staunchest liberals were not prepared take a strong stand. The Cortes protested against any changes of the constitution, but the absolutist regime was ultimately restored, Queen Carlota had her rights and influence re-established, and John VI as acclaimed once more. Demonstrations against the king were repressed—liberals were exiled and some arrested, and new edicts were published that ordered for a restoration the judiciary and institutions along the lines of the new political orientation. There were plans for the liberal constitution to be replaced with a Charter.
John VI's alliance with Miguel didn't last very long. He led another revolt in 1824 against his father, the April Revolt. It was allegedly to deal with the Freemasons and to protect John VI against alleged threats against him, but Miguel used it as an excuse to move against his political enemies, with the intention of forcing John VI's abdication. Diplomatic support (primarily from the British and French ambassadors) allowed John VI to ride this out, and Miguel was exiled. Carlota continued her conspiracies as well, until she was put under house arrest at Queluz in October 1824—but by the time John VI died, Portugal's political and constitutional situation were in a nebulous situation. For a period, the Absolutists had triumphed, though there were obviously cracks as some supported John VI, others allied to Queen Carlota supported Miguel.
I think even without Pedro in the picture, I do not see any sort of enduring alliance between John VI and Miguel. Miguel was always his mother's favorite child, and the most under her influence. I think so long as she's around, she's going to encourage Miguel: not only towards the reestablishment of Absolutism in Portugal, but that he should be King of Portugal—even if John VI is still living and breathing.
But yes, the chaotic situation in Portugal will only make things easier for Brazil to break away. Maria Leopoldina would be well positioned to take advantage of it.
I think some segment of society did, but he also had plenty of support from others. It's worth remembering that when he returned from exile in 1828, many nobles and clergymen were begging him to revoke the Constitutional Charter and reign as King. The very same nobles who were nominated by Pedro to the Chamber of Peers were the same ones who offered him the crown. He did have some segment of support among the traditionalists, while the liberals could count of foreign support (Britain, the Spanish Liberals, and the July Monarchy of Louis Philippe). That he managed to hang on for six years says something—even in 1834 Miguel still had a somewhat formidable army of 18,000 men. He was doomed not only by his isolation and lack of outside support (the archconservative powers of the 1830s—Austria, Prussia, and Russia can't do much for him) but also his nebulous situation as a usurper (though some certainly saw him as the rightful heir/king). No Pedro and a direct succession in 1826 (or him succeeding in displacing John VI in 1823-24) would give Miguel a lot more legitimacy, especially if he comes to power when the absolutists are in ascendance.
I do however think that Portugal developing a republican movement is likely, and could possibly happen sooner than OTL (iirc, the first Portuguese Republican Party was founded in 1876 with the goal of overthrowing the monarchy).
Honestly if you want the dual monarchy to continue your best bet is probably avoiding the death of King Joao VI. There’s a good chance he might have been poisoned by his wife considering how the two hated each other. Assuming the plot is foiled and her imprisoned her, this changes things greatly.
The other thing you need is to better manage the end of the war situation. The custodian government of the British was unpopular and the Portuguese wanted their King.
Joao could have mollified these issues by sending Pedro to Portugal as his envoy. Heck he could have even sent Miguel ensuring that the royal presence was felt in the Lusophone realms.
The other thing you need is to better manage the end of the war situation. The custodian government of the British was unpopular and the Portuguese wanted their King.
Joao could have mollified these issues by sending Pedro to Portugal as his envoy. Heck he could have even sent Miguel ensuring that the royal presence was felt in the Lusophone realms.
That might cause an intervention from other powers.
unprincipled peter
Donor
Agree.
Considering the long history of Carlotta actively conspiring against Joao, he should have beaten her to the punch and had a little arsenic slipped into her morning beverage. If Joao still ends up dead by poisoning, we'll know she wasn't the culprit.
Joao absolutely could have handled 1815-1820 better. He liked it in Brazil, hated it in Portugal, and just sort of pulled the oars into the boat and floated rudderless, until the powers in Portugal took control. By 1821, the union was largely doomed.
The problem with sending Pedro, or even Miguel, to Lisbon is that either one likely usurps the crown. If the troops in Brazil remain loyal to Portugal and the new King, Joao is left powerless in Brazil. Joao would need to switch horses and embrace a more liberal approach.
Joao should have returned to Lisbon some time after the Congress of Vienna, dumping Carlotta overboard along the way, and maintain some sort of control over the Empire. Pedro, left behind in Brazil, would not have the crisis of 20-22 to exploit. It would help if Pedro were not so hotheaded, and more of a leader working with his father. Begging for release from a leadership role is not a good trait in a guy who was born into a destined leadership role.
As for the OP, if Pedro remains loyal to the Portuguese Crown, there's a fork in the road: be a leader and control the situation in Brazil, maintaining a union until his father regains control of the situation in Lisbon; or being the same non-leader as OTL, and watching a Republican movement seize control, leading to Brazilian independence as one or more countries. If all characters remain the same, with the only difference being Pedro remains loyal, my money is on the latter fork.
It goes beyond John VI surviving, though—he wasn't necessarily old in 1826, but Brazil had already split by the time he passed away. He probably was poisoned, though: in 1990 fragments of his heart were rehydrated and tested and there was enough arsenic within those fragments to kill two people. Getting rid of Carlota Joaquina means a more steady ship and neuters the queen's party, but it doesn't fix the other issues unfortunately: there is no stomach for a dual monarchy situation among the Portuguese delegates, who dominated the constituent assembly. They wanted Brazil to remain a part of the Portuguese Empire, but not as a constituent kingdom with it's own government and rights.
His original plan was for Pedro to go to Lisbon as regent, to mollify the Portuguese and grant a constitution. Pedro refused. Sending Miguel, even alone would've been a nightmare—there is no doubt that he'd be intriguing from Lisbon through letters to his mother to seize the throne.
From who? Spain would be the closest, and in no state to interfere anywhere when they can barely deal with the troubles in their own colonies and country. A developing Republican movement doesn't give grounds for any sort of intervention. Such movements were common in Italy and even France in the 1820s: they functioned underground and were not public movements. Hard to deal with something that operates from the shadows.
I think that's the main issue with John VI, though: he wasn't exactly a man who could rouse himself into action, and tended to let events dominate him. Without the revolts in 1820 in Portugal (which even spread into parts of Brazil and even Rio de Janeiro), he likely would've been content to remain in Brazil the rest of his life.
John returning to Portugal at any point is going to bring things to head, though: given the concessions made to the Brazilians during his period of exile there, there will be many who will seek to renege on those agreements once John VI is safely back in Lisbon. The big issue is the inequality between Portugal and Brazil: by 1800, Brazil already had a larger population (3.3 million in 1800, 4.7 in 1820.) compared to Portugal (2.8 million in 1800). Sure, it's not a large gap, but it shows which way the wind is blowing: for Portugal, the choices are either to attempt to reestablish some control over Brazil and seek to turn back the clock on the relationship (an almost impossible challenge) or accept the dual monarchy as it stands. I think for most Portuguese delegates and politicians, the second option is impossible to consider as it could quite possibly lead to a situation down the road where Portugal's standing within the dual monarchy is reduced to that of a junior partner.
unprincipled peter
Donor
I know Joao first wanted to send Pedro in his stead. My impression was that the Cortes said no, we want the King, expecting the whole family would return. Pedro may have had reservations about going, but ultimately the decision was not his to make. And, remaining was a bad decision. Pedro was more of a liberal constitutionalist, which is closer to what the Cortes wanted. I can envision Pedro usurping the Crown, while Joao remains in Brazil. Without character changes to both men, the whole thing blows up, but the possibility exists that Pedro can moderate the revolution enough that terms of union can be sorted out. Joao would not enjoy the confidence of the Brazilian liberals, so he'd have a harder time taking Brazil to independence, but he might be able to moderate their fervor.
Neither was the right man for the job on either side of the pond. Both being the right men could have steadied the ship, especially from an earlier date. One of them, especially Joao, being better might have held it together. Both of them being the wrong men, doomed the union.
I disagree that Joao returning earlier ensures a crisis. Very possible, but also possible that the crisis could be diminished, or averted. The one thing that almost certainly guarantees a crisis is Joao remaining in Brazil. As you said, Portugal (even those advocating change) wanted a return of Brazil to colonial status. That's a situation that can't be managed from Brazil. Waiting til after he lost power to return removed any ability to steer the situation. As you said, being proactive was not his character. It is what's needed, though.
Wouldn't a more divided Brazilian leadership have much more difficulties gaining its independence?
True that is something to consider. Even with Pedro there in otl and Joao VI tacitly approving it, the Portuguese troops still fought to keep Brazil with Portugal. With more divided leadership, Brazil would probably be divided.
unprincipled peter
Donor
Would the Brazilian leadership be divided? Pedro I as monarch probably acts as a unifier and rallying point, but it's not like Pedro was the one getting the factions together. They were the ones who sought to use him. I'm thinking it is easy to see the various regional leaders banding together to achieve independence, and then falling out (balkanizing) afterward when they couldn't agree on how to run the new country. That's basically what happened in OTL, except the federal/central gov't managed to put down the various independence movements. Then they rushed Pedro II to the throne, so the monarchy could act as a stabilizing force. Without a monarch to preserve Brazil's unity for, I think the balkanization has more of a chance.
I don't think Joao gave approval for Brazilian independence, urging Pedro to go for it. Rather, he saw that independence movements were likely, and if things looked like Brazil was going to be lost, Pedro should join the movement, taking the helm. And I think Joao also envisioned a reunion once Joao regained power and Pedro held Brazil, which was about as realistic as Joao's notion that the Crown could remain in Brazil while Portugal was ran as a colony by British officers. Pedro immediately took it upon himself to run Brazil with the mission to achieve independence from the moment Joao departed.
The Portuguese troops were loyal to Portugal, not Joao. Hence, Joao had virtually no power at all when the Cortes ordered him to dance to their tune. Not all the troops were eager about the task, which is why it was relatively easy for the Brazilians to toss them out.
@DrakeRlugia considering how quickly the constitutional project in Portugal collapsed (as you said, none of the traditional elite had any faith in the charter), then could Joao VI have held enough control over Brazil until the "constitutional revolt" was inevitably suppressed? After all, the Portuguese elite had no faith in a Trans-Atlantic state, but the King certainly seemed to.