Czech not giving in in 1938?

[ivanotter]

Could the Czech have defended their country in 1938? Could they have stood up to Germany on their own, or maybe together with Poland at that time?

Having read up on a few things, it could look like the Czech fortifications could withstand a German attack, at least in 1938.

Poland, ruled by the colonels, could have piled in as well, instead of partaking in the partition of Czech territory.

Comments?

Ivan

 

[Perky50]

I have wondered that myself as to what might have transpired. The Poles and Czechs were at loggerheads over territorial issues as I understand, but I'm not sure on the whats and wheres of it.

A point of interest is something I recall from a semi-forgotten TV show on History channel. It had something to do with a group of German officers that were willing to remove Hitler and company if France and particularly Britain would stand up to Hitler's aggressive push against the Czech's.

The political solution however was the path taken, the result of which was that if the Czech's had opposed it with force they in fact could be portrayed as at fault.

All that was really needed at the time was some strength of character and the will to do make the right choice by France and Britain. The whole scheme would have been stopped in it's tracks.

As far as the Czech's defending themselves I would wonder that it would not be decided on by the strength of their military or defenses. Rather it would be the loyalties of their Sudeten German population in a conflict without outside support.

I'm no expert, these are just snippets of things that come to mind after reading your thoughts on the matter. Hopefully some brighter sources can illuminate the matter in a more developed manner.

 

[Warsie]

The Czech defenses are in primarily sudentland german zones so I wonder how those would hold if the germans in sudentland try partisan warfare like the germans in Poland did before Poland got invaded.

 

[tallwingedgoat]

If Poland allied with the Czechs they have a very good chance of holding against Germany. Czechoslovakia was on good terms with the Soviets, who offered assistance but couldn't do anything about it. If the Poles could temporarily reconcile with the Soviets, Stalin would love to give them the materiel to fight Hitler. The longer this war drags out the more likely France and Britain would pile in. If I were a member of the German General Staff I would not recommend fighting this war.

 

[Sumeragi]

Poland is probably the most important aspect of this. While Germany would probably not have won any real war against Czechoslovakia and France at the same time, the entrance of the Soviets due to the treaty could have Poland swing for Germany. The beginning part of Turtledove's the War that Came Early is a good study on this part (of course, it because ASB as it continues, but still the premise was good enough.)

 

[NothingNow]

They'd be able to hold out till maybe April 1939 without assistance if the weather's right and fucks over the BF109 squadrons on take off and landing. Probably be a gradual fall back while in places Czech armor and men win the day, and generally inflict serious casualties on the Germans.

Seriously Germany was not ready for war in October of 1938, and in most places the Czechs had at least parity, save the comparative sizes of the Armed Forces, although German officers and NCOs might've been better and Czech armor was vastly superior to Panzer I and IIs then in service, and seriously outnumbered the 75 Panzer III and maybe 150 Panzer IVs then in use.

If the Czechs get French and Polish assistance the war will be over in 1940, with Berlin possibly becoming Brno on the Spréva.

 

[Michael B]

Poland is probably the most important aspect of this.

Yes, because they cut themselves a slice of the action. A bit like a turkey voting for Christmas becasue they were next.

On warsie's partisan suggestion, that would take some organising and very least delay the German invasion. It could also lead to a general massacre of Germans outside Germany just in case they became a fifth column in the future. Not that I think that would worry Hitler.

 

[Warsie]

On warsie's partisan suggestion, that would take some organising and very least delay the German invasion. It could also lead to a general massacre of Germans outside Germany just in case they became a fifth column in the future. Not that I think that would worry Hitler.

OTL Nazi Germany did that in Poland for intelligence and I believe sabotage of Polish things, and the polish responded with massacre and/or ethnic cleansing of Germans when the Germans invaded Poland and the sabotage began.

EDIT: also general massacre of germans outside germany will well, embolden the Nazis and given them a hard-on and justification to fuck shit up. See how well he was able to use mistreatment of Germans in Poland and Czechoslavakia....

 

[Eurofed]

The Czech defying the Munich Agreement would be Hitler's dream scenario. Now he can proceed to invade and annex all of Bohemia-Moravia with the blessing of a Britain disgusted with Czech bullheadedness. The French won't do anything without British support, and the Poles are in all likelihood going to support Germany for a piece of the action, even more so and especially if they even suspect that the Soviets are behind Czech defiance.

No way the Czech can win in a solo fight, the Germans can easily bypass Czech defenses by going through the Austrian section of the border, and the Slovaks cannot be relied upon to fight for Czechoslovakia, they were on the brink of secession and switching to the side of Germany (and if they weren't, Hungary can be expected to jump in to grab in, which is part of the reason the Slovaks were willing to switch sides).

If the Soviets actually escalate the situation to military intervention, this becomes even more of Hitler's dream scenario, he can fight the Soviets with an alliance with Poland and the benevolent neutrality of Britain and France.

 

[I Blame Communism]

I would first note that it wasn't the Czechs who caved, it was the Entente. The Czechs just decided that when your allies have categorically refused to stand up for your independence, being in one piece is better than being Doomed Moral Victor.

So, is the question what would have happened if France and Britain has stood by the Czechs as a result of German brashness, which was not so far from happening? Well, Germany would lose that war, and possibly the generals would step in to prevent it being fought.

If the Czechs had decided on a blaze of glory, though... as has been said, their armed forced were remarkably throng relative to Germany. I also understand that they had basically quelled Sudeten German agitation by mobilising the army. The population would cause trouble, but the Czechs still have the mountain passes and fortifications that the Germans were so loathe to storm. So certainly the Czechs can hold out for several weeks, inflicting terrible casualties on the Germans.

The question then arises of when France would decide to go back on their decision and intervene, about which I'm not sure.

I wouldn't rely too much on the Poles. Whereas I doubt they'd actually commit their forces to fighting the Czechs, you have to remember that Poland becoming Germany's target was a result of the complete 180 in German-Soviet relations that took place in 1939. Before that, Germany was hostile to the Soviets, Poland was hostile to the Soviets, and although neither party liked the other they talked on ordinary terms. It's conspicuous how Danzig and the Germans in Poland appeared from the mists in 1939 after having gone unmentioned by Goebbels for years. Britain certainly wrote off Poland as a German client. So why should they assume they're next?

In fact, is everybody involved was really, really stupid - a contingency not unprecedented in human history - you could probably get German and Poles against Czechs and Soviets. Unlikely, but interesting.

 

[I Blame Communism]

No way the Czech can win in a solo fight, the Germans can easily bypass Czech defenses by going through the Austrian section of the border,

What is the origin of this enduring myth?

The Czechs were not dipshits and knew that not fortifying an entire border was a shit idea. Possibly the misconception arises from the fact that Czechia's southern border is not a sharp mountain ridge. Most borders aren't.

and the Slovaks cannot be relied upon to fight for Czechoslovakia, they were on the brink of secession and switching to the side of Germany (and if they weren't, Hungary can be expected to jump in to grab in, which is part of the reason the Slovaks were willing to switch sides).

But if Czechoslovakia has mobilised, what weapons, organisations, and resources can a part of the Slovak political scene given influence by the events call on?

Somebody somewhere once employed the interesting analogy of tsarist Russia in WW1. A whole host of groups who promptly started organising autonomies and independent states proved about as reliable as you could want when they were listed for the Tsarist army, because people generally get on with things and try to stay alive.

As for Hungary, Horthy proves himself a canny gentleman, refusing the chance to go charging into Slovakia and instead picking up what there was a fair chance either side might let him keep. Why should this change? If the Czechs lose, he can do the same trick and extort what he wants. If they win, he's saved himself from being on the wrong side.

 

[I Blame Communism]

If the Soviets actually escalate the situation to military intervention, this becomes even more of Hitler's dream scenario, he can fight the Soviets with an alliance with Poland and the benevolent neutrality of Britain and France.

'Dream' in that you wake up and reality asserts itself? Instead of a triumphant military aparatus that was trampled all over Europe, he is equipped with a battered and exhausted army after the difficult slog to Prague. The Czech arms and industrial capacity which gave Germany such a boost are torn up; the Czechs themselves, having been militarised rather than placed under quiescent fascists, are probably more organised for sabotage. Germany does not have a series of economic colonies in Europe from which to plunder resources.

And the Soviets? Their armed forces are a bit of a mess, as indeed they were in 1941. And they don't have the areas they lost in the initial weeks of the campaign, so from a point of view of industrial capacity a fat lot of difference that makes. They do have readiness and a strategic plan.

Well... the Germans could conceivably draw. That is, leave the Polish-Soviet border where it was before.

 

[Eurofed]

The question then arises of when France would decide to go back on their decision and intervene, about which I'm not sure.

In this situation, not going to happen. With Chamberlain at the helm, the Entente would never, ever back the Czechs and the Soviets against the Germans and Poles, after the Czechs gave the finger to the Entente.

In fact, is everybody involved was really, really stupid - a contingency not unprecedented in human history - you could probably get German and Poles against Czechs and Soviets. Unlikely, but interesting.

Agreed.

 

[Snaut]

Everything seems to have depended on France. Perhaps if somebody like Reynaud had replaced Daladier in 1938, France would have supported Czechoslovakia anyway. Czechoslovakia itself was unwilling to resist without French backing. As for Poland, the cornerstone of its foreign policy at the time was its alliance with France. While IOTL the Poles demanded Czechoslovak territory, they announced their ultimatum after Czechoslovakia had been abandoned and Munich signed. I don't think it was a coincidence. If France had taken a more active role, I cannot see Poland opposing it. Although in such a scenario the Poles would probably wait until Germany was clearly beaten before acting.

 

[Eurofed]

'Dream' in that you wake up and reality asserts itself? Instead of a triumphant military aparatus that was trampled all over Europe, he is equipped with a battered and exhausted army after the difficult slog to Prague. The Czech arms and industrial capacity which gave Germany such a boost are torn up; the Czechs themselves, having been militarised rather than placed under quiescent fascists, are probably more organised for sabotage. Germany does not have a series of economic colonies in Europe from which to plunder resources.

But Germany would have the benevolent neutrality of Britain and France, and full access to world markets.

ITTL, Hitler has done absolutely nothing to alienate the West yet, he's fighting because the Czech refused an internationally-sanctioned, sensible solution to a national-self-determination dispute, and the Soviets are exploiting the situation to make another grab for Poland. I do expect a lot of sympathy for Germany in London.

And the Soviets? Their armed forces are a bit of a mess, as indeed they were in 1941. And they don't have the areas they lost in the initial weeks of the campaign, so from a point of view of industrial capacity a fat lot of difference that makes. They do have readiness and a strategic plan.

And they won't have any Land-Lease. And the Red Army was much more of a mess in 1938-39 than in 1941, when serious action had been taken to correct the flaws revealed by the Winter War. While the Poles are fighting the war they long prepared for.

Well... the Germans could conceivably draw. That is, leave the Polish-Soviet border where it was before.

Which still leaves Germany with freedom to own and Germanise Czechia as they wish, an eager client Poland, and a reputation as the anti-Soviet bastion in the eyes of the West. Not too bad.

 

[ivanotter]

I read soemwhere that Czech had some 38 divisions, behind waht was called the Eastern Maginot line. Even Hitler was impressed with the border fortifications when he saw them afterwards. The German generals were not interested in attackig nthese and even doubted if they could have done it.

remember that 60% of all German panzer broke down on the drive (on good roads) from Germany to Vienna in 1938.

The Czech arms were rather top class as well at that time, Skoda factories etc.

Even if France/UK would stand by, could Czech have fought Germany themselves at that time? Was Germany even prepared for any major conflict in 1938? not sure.

Ivan

 

[Eurofed]

Everything seems to have depended on France. Perhaps if somebody like Reynaud had replaced Daladier in 1938, France would have supported Czechoslovakia anyway. Czechoslovakia itself was unwilling to resist without French backing. As for Poland, the cornerstone of its foreign policy at the time was its alliance with France. While IOTL the Poles demanded Czechoslovak territory, they announced their ultimatum after Czechoslovakia had been abandoned and Munich signed. I don't think it was a coincidence. If France had taken a more active role, I cannot see Poland opposing it. Although in such a scenario the Poles would probably wait until Germany was clearly beaten before acting.

France taking a defiant anti-German stance would require Britain taking that attitude. This would be an entirely different scenario, because if the Entente had taken a defiant stance during the Munich crisis, the German generals would have surely overthrown Hitler as soon as he would give the order for invasion of Czechoslovakia. The plans for an anti-Nazi coup were ready, the Heer rightly dreaded a war in this situation, and there would be a wide backing for the coup.

To fulfill this scenario, you need Czechoslovakia to defy the Munich Agreement after the Entente has agreed to give in to German demands, in all likelihood because Stalin has given assurances to back them nonetheless.

 

[I Blame Communism]

In this situation, not going to happen. With Chamberlain at the helm, the Entente would never, ever back the Czechs and the Soviets against the Germans and Poles, after the Czechs gave the finger to the Entente.

Who gave whose finger to who? The Czechs were written off, and Munich became increasingly unpopular with the public as its consequences sunk in. Being pro-Czech was a rallying banner for anti-appeasers in all three parties.

Statesmen don't deal in certainties. Chamberlain would next year begin negotiations with the Soviet Union about a pact against the Germans - half-heartedly and non-commiteally, but "never, ever" nonetheless becomes absurd. And by that point the fate of the Czechs was no longer at stake. Unlike the Poles, a lot of people in Britain liked the Czechs.

We are also staking a great deal on the total dependence of France on British co-operation. Fair enough, so did the French, but the fact is that no matter what we do, France invades the Saar and the German goose is cooked.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

I think we need a PoD with the left not getting in power in France. With Laval still running around trying to build a coalition against Germany, neither Britain nor France might be willing to sell out the Czechs. Perhaps no Laval- Hoare pact (would probably make Franco- Italian relations slightly worse, but at this point it would be no secret that Mussolini has lost interest in containing Germany).

 

[Eurofed]

Who gave whose finger to who? The Czechs were written off, and Munich became increasingly unpopular with the public as its consequences sunk in.

Nothing really changed in the British political landscape till Hitler invaded Czechia.

Being pro-Czech was a rallying banner for anti-appeasers in all three parties.

A fringe bunch of warmongers with very little following till March 15, 1939.

Statesmen don't deal in certainties. Chamberlain would next year begin negotiations with the Soviet Union about a pact against the Germans - half-heartedly and non-commiteally, but "never, ever" nonetheless becomes absurd.

Only after German invasion of Czechia showed Hitler to be deeply untrustworthy and put the lie to the widespread expectation that his foreign policy was all about the fulfillment of sensible German irredentist claims.

We are also staking a great deal on the total dependence of France on British co-operation. Fair enough, so did the French, but the fact is that no matter what we do, France invades the Saar and the German goose is cooked.

True, but there is absolutely no evidence that 1938-39 France had any willingness to do it, much less without British support and assent.