Could Eugene de Beauharnais have kept Milan in 1814?

It would take a lot of luck and skill, but I agree that Veneto (less the Quadrilateral fortresses), Romagna and March would be a nice state.
Remember anyway that Eugene is going to die relatively young, leaving an underage heir
Ugh, losing Verona and the Mincio border makes the Adriatic state completely undefensible, I would give Ancona with all her March for that...

As to Eugene dying young, you are unfortunately right and probably the stresses of running an independent state would shorten his lifespan a bit further. Still his wife seemed to be not incompetent and he would have 6-8 years to organise his state. It is certainly a problem, compunded by most of the significant italic prominent political personnel dying in the 20's: Melzi d'Eril died in 1816 and in any case would not leave his Milan, Prina, even if he had survived the otl riot, was not young and Antonio Aldini would die in 1826. The Austrian use of mostly not italian administrators, togheter with the utter degeneration and enervation of the Venetian patriciate makes it difficult to think of who could form the political class of this State...

There will be some difficulties with trade too: given Austrian protectionism, it might be difficult to keep a good trade relationship with Lombardy and Germany/Mitteleuropa. Even the other land borders are with states in the austrian sphere. Compare this situation with Piedmont, which could beneficiate from French trade and investments and a port better suited for the xix century such as Genoa.
 
Ugh, losing Verona and the Mincio border makes the Adriatic state completely undefensible, I would give Ancona with all her March for that...

As to Eugene dying young, you are unfortunately right and probably the stresses of running an independent state would shorten his lifespan a bit further. Still his wife seemed to be not incompetent and he would have 6-8 years to organise his state. It is certainly a problem, compunded by most of the significant italic prominent political personnel dying in the 20's: Melzi d'Eril died in 1816 and in any case would not leave his Milan, Prina, even if he had survived the otl riot, was not young and Antonio Aldini would die in 1826. The Austrian use of mostly not italian administrators, togheter with the utter degeneration and enervation of the Venetian patriciate makes it difficult to think of who could form the political class of this State...

There will be some difficulties with trade too: given Austrian protectionism, it might be difficult to keep a good trade relationship with Lombardy and Germany/Mitteleuropa. Even the other land borders are with states in the austrian sphere. Compare this situation with Piedmont, which could beneficiate from French trade and investments and a port better suited for the xix century such as Genoa.

First of all, I wrote without thinking: in 1815 there is no Quadrilateral. Would the border between Venetia and Lombardy be the same of the Serenissima? If yes, Bergamo and Brescia would be important additions, in particular the latter. If Bergamo and Brescia are added to the Austrian Lombardy (which is quite likely) Eugene would loose significantly.
This does not mean that Eugene's strategical situation gets much better, given the long border with Austrian territories, the border with Austrian proxies in Parma, Modena and Tuscany and that with a pissed-off rump Papal State (I would hope that he gets at least Bologna and Ferrara, though). The other complication is that there is not a lot of capital sloshing around and looking for investments, not after a quarter century of war. On the bright side, Venice and even more Ancona would provide him with two decent ports, and it would make sense to concentrate on traffic with the Eastern Mediterranean.
I would not be too much concerned with the possible lack of suitable administrators and ministers: there should be quite a lot of them around, the ones formed between 1800 and 1815, who could be attracted by a slightly more liberal (Eugene will have to walk very carefully) regime.
Good point about Eugene's wife, who could also bring some goodwill at least from Bavaria. Unfortunately you have also a good point with the difficulties in trading with Central Europe, given the presence of Austrian lands across his northern border: it looks like Eugene will have to carefully suck up to Austria, and to Russia too
 
I agree!
The most likely border is on the river Mincio imho, which is a pity: as you say Bergamo and Brescia are industrially important (including weapons manufacturers - Beretta - and some iron mining and smelting), but Austria needs them for a better link with the former Duchy of Milan.

I foresee some conflict between the relatively more liberal Bologna and Venice. All in all far from an easy situation, but diplomatically less unlikely than Austria letting go of Milan, am I right?
 
The thread on the Polish-Saxon crisis escalating makes me wonder what would Eugène do in such a situation. I agree that a Russian alliance would be unwise, but Eugène could ask for most of the Kingdom of Italy to be restored to him in exchange for his support of the Austrian cause.


Though it might be just as likely for Russia and Prussia to buy Austrian acquiescence in their Polish-Saxon ambitions in return for military help to crush Eugene (and Murat if he's still in the picture).

Italy, after all, is the only area where Austrian aspirations don't clash with Russo-Prussian ones, so they'll want Austria to get a much as possible in Italy so she can be given as iittle as possible elsewhere.
 
Though it might be just as likely for Russia and Prussia to buy Austrian acquiescence in their Polish-Saxon ambitions in return for military help to crush Eugene (and Murat if he's still in the picture).

Italy, after all, is the only area where Austrian aspirations don't clash with Russo-Prussian ones, so they'll want Austria to get a much as possible in Italy so she can be given as iittle as possible elsewhere.
It is unlikely that the king of Saxony is thrown to the dogs, though: the principle of legitimacy first of all, and also the strong desire of Austria to keep a buffer between their border and Prussia
 
I agree!
The most likely border is on the river Mincio imho, which is a pity: as you say Bergamo and Brescia are industrially important (including weapons manufacturers - Beretta - and some iron mining and smelting), but Austria needs them for a better link with the former Duchy of Milan.

I foresee some conflict between the relatively more liberal Bologna and Venice. All in all far from an easy situation, but diplomatically less unlikely than Austria letting go of Milan, am I right?
Brescia gives also a connection to Switzerland (not a good one, but still...), but it is almost impossible that Austria would let Bergamo and Brescia go.
Where do you see the capital of this kingdom and how would it be named?
I would say Bologna over Venice, and it could be a kingdom of Romagna and Venetia, similar to the Lombardy-Venetia of OTL.
The eastern border might be similar to the one agreed after the war of 1866.
 
It is unlikely that the king of Saxony is thrown to the dogs, though: the principle of legitimacy first of all, and also the strong desire of Austria to keep a buffer between their border and Prussia

Also, it seems that Eugene had a good reputation in the European courts and Tsar Alexander was quite favorable to him.
I think that if he sues for peace soon enough while having reasonably good factual control of the Italic Kingdom he has a chance in keeping part of it. The problem is that Austria will want Lombardy at the cost of restarting the war, but at the same time Milan is the seat of Eugene's power and historically he lost all when it revolted against his ministers. It could be an impossible situation: renouncing Lonbardy in exchange for keeping Veneto and Romagna needs more Austrian cooperation, they could easily promise it in an armistice and then march their army through it as Eugene is abandoned by the Italians who will think he is a sellout and might even stage riots in Venice if promised a restoration of the Serenissima...

As to the capital, I think that Venice has a prestige edge over Bologna and I am quite skeptical of a made up Venetian-Romagnolo kingdom: Austria naming her Italian territories Kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia is quite a different matter imo.
 
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Also, it seems that Eugene had a good reputation in the European courts and Tsar Alexander was quite favorable to him.
I think that if he sues for peace soon enough while having reasonably good factual control of the Italic Kingdom he has a chance in keeping part of it. The problem is that Austria will want Lombardy at the cost of restarting the war, but at the same time Milan is the seat of Eugene's power and historically he lost all when it revolted against his ministers. It could be an impossible situation: renouncing Lonbardy in exchange for keeping Veneto and Romagna needs more Austrian cooperation, they could easily promise it in an armistice and then march their army through it as Eugene is abandoned by the Italians who will think he is a sellout and might even stage riots in Venice if promised a restoration of the Serenissima...

As to the capital, I think that Venice has a prestige edge over Bologna and I am quite skeptical of a made up Venetian-Romagnolo kingdom: Austria naming her Italian territories Kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia is quite a different matter imo.

As a matter of fact everything you're saying goes to show how hard it would have been for Eugene to keep a throne.
There are two alternatives: give to Eugene just Romagna, Marche and the Legations of Bologna and Ferrara, while Austria gets Lombardy and Venetia (scarcely viable economically, but not worse for sure than the other duchies) or give him Lombardy (but it should include Bergamo and Brescia too).

Venice has more prestige than Bologna as a capital, but it would be a little awkward to have the capital of a kingdom there. It might work (a good name might be the kingdom of Adria) but Venice is also very cramped and would not be easy to fit everything in it
 
As a matter of fact everything you're saying goes to show how hard it would have been for Eugene to keep a throne.
There are two alternatives: give to Eugene just Romagna, Marche and the Legations of Bologna and Ferrara, while Austria gets Lombardy and Venetia (scarcely viable economically, but not worse for sure than the other duchies) or give him Lombardy (but it should include Bergamo and Brescia too).

Venice has more prestige than Bologna as a capital, but it would be a little awkward to have the capital of a kingdom there. It might work (a good name might be the kingdom of Adria) but Venice is also very cramped and would not be easy to fit everything in it
Lombardy, although landlocked, would be far better, but it requires compensation for Austria in Germany and, as others have said it is easier for other powers to just let Austria have Italy as her own playground than giving her a bigger share of Germany.

But let's handwave this for a moment: how would Risorgimento change? I think Sardinia will become Austrian aligned in this scenario, especially if/when France gets rids of the Bourbons again, but this will cause internal instability, especially in Genoa, which will want Milanese trade to pass through her port.
The relationship with the Duchies? Although austrian clients they were not strictly puppets and often acted with some independence, esoecially Tuscany: Leghorn is another possibility for a friendly port for Milan: a common trade zone between Lombardy, Parma, Modena and Tuscany makes a great deal of sense and could be an interesting nucleus for a unification that is more a coalescence than a conquest.
 
Milan had been Austrian since the war of spanish succession and an Habsburg possession for centuries, while the Austrians could only claim right of conquest over Venice.


Actually, iirc it was Napoleon (still just General Bonaparte at the time) who conquered it. He subsequently ceded it to Austria by the Treaty of Campo Formio. True, he took it away again after the next war with Austria, but presumably that does give Austria an historical claim of sorts.


Small point. Iirc Eugene was never King of Italy, only Regent. The king was Napoleon himself, and in 1814 he abdicated both thrones. So presumably Eugene's authority terminates with Napoleon's fall. In such clrcs, aren't the Italian soldiers - mostly conscripted peasants with no particular desire to be in uniform - likely to just slope off home without waiting to be formally demobbed?
 
Actually, iirc it was Napoleon (still just General Bonaparte at the time) who conquered it. He subsequently ceded it to Austria by the Treaty of Campo Formio. True, he took it away again after the next war with Austria, but presumably that does give Austria an historical claim of sorts.


Small point. Iirc Eugene was never King of Italy, only Regent. The king was Napoleon himself, and in 1814 he abdicated both thrones. So presumably Eugene's authority terminates with Napoleon's fall. In such clrcs, aren't the Italian soldiers - mostly conscripted peasants with no particular desire to be in uniform - likely to just slope off home without waiting to be formally demobbed?
I know :) I meant to say that the acquisition of the Republic of Venice territories woth the treaty of Campoformido was not more legitimate that other territorial changes which happened during the Napoleonic period from a legitimacy/restoration point of view, but Bellegarde had conquered most of Veneto back fom the Franco Italians in 1814.

You are spot on about Eugene being only viceroy: in otl all came crashing down when he failed to get himself proclaimed King by the Senate or Electoral Colleges in april 1814 and instead aristocratic elements orchestrated a riot which resulted in Finance Minister Prina getting lynched by an angry mob.
 
I know :) I meant to say that the acquisition of the Republic of Venice territories woth the treaty of Campoformido was not more legitimate that other territorial changes which happened during the Napoleonic period from a legitimacy/restoration point of view, but Bellegarde had conquered most of Veneto back fom the Franco Italians in 1814.

My impression is that Republics didn't count where legitimacy was concerned. Genoa also disappeared, while the Netherlands got turned into a Kingdom. I understand there was some discussion as to whether even Switzerland should be given a King or Statthalter

You are spot on about Eugene being only viceroy: in otl all came crashing down when he failed to get himself proclaimed King by the Senate or Electoral Colleges in april 1814 and instead aristocratic elements orchestrated a riot which resulted in Finance Minister Prina getting lynched by an angry mob.

Does that make Eugene world record holder for optimism?

With Napoleon just booted out, why on earth would anyone choose his stepson as their king? Even the French Senate, entirely appointed by Napoleon, voted to recall Louis XVIII, so why would these Italian gentlemen elect Eugene at a time when his ministers were getting strung up by the mob?
 
My impression is that Republics didn't count where legitimacy was concerned. Genoa also disappeared, while the Netherlands got turned into a Kingdom. I understand there was some discussion as to whether even Switzerland should be given a King or Statthalter



Does that make Eugene world record holder for optimism?

With Napoleon just booted out, why on earth would anyone choose his stepson as their king? Even the French Senate, entirely appointed by Napoleon, voted to recall Louis XVIII, so why would these Italian gentlemen elect Eugene at a time when his ministers were getting strung up by the mob?

Actually poor Prina was beaten/stabbed to death with umbrellas iirc... Eugene was too honest for his own good: he should have jumped ship when his Bavarian in-laws did, but his positions in Italy were also too strategical to enable some sort of neutrality.
The whole attempt at coronation was a desperate gambit, mainly orchestrated by Melzi d'Eril and the reason to have Eugene as king is that basically there is no alternative for independence, the ones who ousted him thought that the powers would grant them independence an aristocratic-friendly constitution and a German prince, but they were as deluded ad Eugene: once the army guarding the Mincio dissolved, Bellegarde didn't have any second thougths before dissolving the aristocratic provisional government and occupying Milan. The same happened with Genoa, which was promised by Bentinck a restoration of the republic or at least independence, but than was sacrificed to the Savoia to make an anti-french buffer state.
 
I agree with most of the posters here that it's very, very difficult. If Eugene jumps ship with his Bavarian in-laws, as suggested many times here, then maybe one thing that can happen is that a Kingdom of Italy could be formed with similar borders to OTL Kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia, with the Austrian Emperor as King, and Milan as a fief for Eugene as Duke of Lombardy under the overlordship of the Emperor as King of Italy. This gives Venice, and possibly Bologna and Marche, to Austria as compensation, and creates an Austrian-controlled block that can keep Eugene under control if he gets too independent for Austria's tastes. Let's remember they felt free to intervene as far as Naples when they thought the Liberals were getting too uppity there.

Eugene is going to have to toe the line: no Constitution, no economic reforms, no appeals or propaganda for Italian nationalism. If Eugene does as much as sneeze too close to the Liberals, he's going to be kicked out.

If the objective is to give Eugene a crown, any crown, then he'd be better off with Naples, if and only if he switches sides early enough. This requires a POD for Napoleon to place someone else trustworthy as viceroy in Milan, and I don't think he'll just swap Eugene with Murat.
 
Lombardy, although landlocked, would be far better, but it requires compensation for Austria in Germany and, as others have said it is easier for other powers to just let Austria have Italy as her own playground than giving her a bigger share of Germany.

But let's handwave this for a moment: how would Risorgimento change? I think Sardinia will become Austrian aligned in this scenario, especially if/when France gets rids of the Bourbons again, but this will cause internal instability, especially in Genoa, which will want Milanese trade to pass through her port.
The relationship with the Duchies? Although austrian clients they were not strictly puppets and often acted with some independence, esoecially Tuscany: Leghorn is another possibility for a friendly port for Milan: a common trade zone between Lombardy, Parma, Modena and Tuscany makes a great deal of sense and could be an interesting nucleus for a unification that is more a coalescence than a conquest.

In the game of musical thrones played at the Congress of Vienna there were always a few musical chairs missing, even keeping into account the elimination of the former Italian republics (Venice, Genoa and Lucca - it is interesting that the 4 Free Cities in Northern Germany were allowed to remain independent under a republican system). Then there is the problem with Austria, who wanted (and obtained) a free hand in Italy, through direct annexations (Venetia, in addition to the former possessions in Lombardy) and states ruled by princes with Habsburg dynastic ties (Modena, Tuscany and Parma - although the last one was during the lifetime of Marie Louise only). The remaining Italian states (Sardinia, Two Sicilies and Papal States) were formally independent but quite conscious that their survival was pretty much predicated on remaining in good terms with Austria, who was appointed by the Powers as the guarantor in Italy of the Restauration. No other of the 5 Powers was interested in getting involved in Italy. It is very difficult (if not almost impossible) to foresee a different arrangement from what was agreed in Vienna unless something major happens (like the unlikely war over Saxony) with two possible exceptions: Romagna, Marche and the Papal Legations of Bologna and Ferrara might be carved out and made into an "independent" state (this was discussed in Vienna, but there was no one strongly arguing for it, and the default was to re-create the Papal States in their pre-Napoleonic extension. Twenty years later Metternich regretted this decision, since the Papal government was an awful mess even by reactionary standards, but it was too late), and the kingdom of Naples might remain under Murat's rule provided that Murat shows he's worth of it.
IMHO Murat has far better chances than Eugene to keep a crown, if he can keep his head down and does not rock the boat: given Murat's personality, it is a big call. The only real chance is that he follows his wife's early advice to switch sides.
Eugene is in a worse cleft because of the geographical location of his power base (I'm generous), but he also has to keep his head down and prove he can be an asset. His only advantage is in the marital ties with Bavaria: same thing as with Murat, follow the wifey advice and switch sides. It is almost more difficult than it would be for Murat. If he manages all that, the only realistic hope is the partition of the Papal States: anything more cannot be argued on a rational basis.

It is difficult to answer a very sketchy hypothetical scenario: a Beauharnais Lombardy would certainly have some impact on the Italian situation, and even beyond that, but which kind of impact will depend on what happens between 1815 and say 1840. I do not see any particular reason to see major changes in the history of Piedmont-Sardinia (unless you want to posit an early death of Charles Albert), nor in the rest of Italy. Hopefully Eugene and his heir will be able to give some boost to the economy in their possessions, and increase commerce with Switzerland and Northern Europe (Bavaria in particular), but they will have to play a very cautious game on the political side: Austrians troops can be in Milan very quickly, and Sardinians too. I am very skeptic about a customs union: the only Italian ruler who could show an interest is the Grand-duke of Tuscany; Parma does not gives anyone the time of the day without Austrian permission, and the awful backstabber who is on the throne of Modena is scarcely more free to act on his own; nothing good can come either from Naples or from Rome (let's assume the papal succession is not modified). There might be more interest in a customs union with Sardinia (as you note the bulk of import/export from Lombardy should go through Genoa), but to get a real boost there is the need of a railway link so we go to mid-1840s at best (and assume there is no Austrian veto, nor Eugene's heir is worried by the railway link with Piedmont, given the centuries-old Savoy ambitions to take Milan.

OTOH interesting things might happen in TTL 1848-equivalent (which I believe it is very difficult to butterfly away, and should reasonably happen at the same time given the bed harvests in 1846-47). If (and it is a very big if) Piedmont-Sardinia and Lombardy have improved the respective economies by close cooperation, there is a railway link to Milan and beyond and Charles Albert is a bit more confident there can be Lombard and Sardinian troops very quickly on the Mincio, Modena, Parma and Romagna would go up in insurrection and Leopold of Tuscany might join the Italian League. Since I'm butterflying away the month thrown away by Charles Albert's dithering, the war in Northern Italy might end up quite differently. There is still the Quadrilateral (where Radetzky may or may not be in charge) but its lines of supply would be cut and sooner or later would have to come out. A very, very optimistic scenario but the best I can do and a possibility to go for a Federal Italy.

Actually poor Prina was beaten/stabbed to death with umbrellas iirc... Eugene was too honest for his own good: he should have jumped ship when his Bavarian in-laws did, but his positions in Italy were also too strategical to enable some sort of neutrality.
The whole attempt at coronation was a desperate gambit, mainly orchestrated by Melzi d'Eril and the reason to have Eugene as king is that basically there is no alternative for independence, the ones who ousted him thought that the powers would grant them independence an aristocratic-friendly constitution and a German prince, but they were as deluded ad Eugene: once the army guarding the Mincio dissolved, Bellegarde didn't have any second thougths before dissolving the aristocratic provisional government and occupying Milan. The same happened with Genoa, which was promised by Bentinck a restoration of the republic or at least independence, but than was sacrificed to the Savoia to make an anti-french buffer state.

It's a bit of a stretch, but if Eugene had taken a leaf from the tactics of his stepfather (a whiff of grapeshot) the coup might have worked. Its success (coupled with a political U-turn by asking to join the Coalition) would have improved the overall chances of Eugene. Ideally this would happen after Eugene had alrady opened channels with the Coalition, maybe using the good offices of his father-in-law

I agree with most of the posters here that it's very, very difficult. If Eugene jumps ship with his Bavarian in-laws, as suggested many times here, then maybe one thing that can happen is that a Kingdom of Italy could be formed with similar borders to OTL Kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia, with the Austrian Emperor as King, and Milan as a fief for Eugene as Duke of Lombardy under the overlordship of the Emperor as King of Italy. This gives Venice, and possibly Bologna and Marche, to Austria as compensation, and creates an Austrian-controlled block that can keep Eugene under control if he gets too independent for Austria's tastes. Let's remember they felt free to intervene as far as Naples when they thought the Liberals were getting too uppity there.

Eugene is going to have to toe the line: no Constitution, no economic reforms, no appeals or propaganda for Italian nationalism. If Eugene does as much as sneeze too close to the Liberals, he's going to be kicked out.

If the objective is to give Eugene a crown, any crown, then he'd be better off with Naples, if and only if he switches sides early enough. This requires a POD for Napoleon to place someone else trustworthy as viceroy in Milan, and I don't think he'll just swap Eugene with Murat.
After the dissolution of the HRE there is no "kingdom of Italy", and I believe that if Austria had tried to go for such a solution (which frankly does not give her any real benefit) there would be a strong opposition by the other Powers (and by all the Italian states too). I don't think that Eugene as duke of Milan under Austrian overlordship is practicable.
On paper, the throne of Naples would appear to be easier but once again there would be strong opposition (the Bourbons, their British protectors, France and even Spain), no real reason to do it and in the unlikely case it happens poor Eugene would be in a world of hurt and pain, being parachuted into a reality he does not know at all and where he has not the minimal power basis.
I stand by my opinion that the least ASBish throne Eugene may gain would have to be carved out of the Papal States: Romagna, Marche and the Legations. He still would have not much of a power basis, but at least it would be more similar to his previous experience as viceroy of Italy.
 
Maybe in 1808 Murat could chose the Kingdom of Portugal instead of Naple and Napoleon gave Naple to Eugene.
 
I agree with most of the posters here that it's very, very difficult. If Eugene jumps ship with his Bavarian in-laws, as suggested many times here, then maybe one thing that can happen is that a Kingdom of Italy could be formed with similar borders to OTL Kingdom of Lombardy-Venetia, with the Austrian Emperor as King, and Milan as a fief for Eugene as Duke of Lombardy under the overlordship of the Emperor as King of Italy. This gives Venice, and possibly Bologna and Marche, to Austria as compensation, and creates an Austrian-controlled block that can keep Eugene under control if he gets too independent for Austria's tastes. Let's remember they felt free to intervene as far as Naples when they thought the Liberals were getting too uppity there.

Eugene is going to have to toe the line: no Constitution, no economic reforms, no appeals or propaganda for Italian nationalism. If Eugene does as much as sneeze too close to the Liberals, he's going to be kicked out.

If the objective is to give Eugene a crown, any crown, then he'd be better off with Naples, if and only if he switches sides early enough. This requires a POD for Napoleon to place someone else trustworthy as viceroy in Milan, and I don't think he'll just swap Eugene with Murat.

I am not sure about having Eugene as Duke of Lombardy but formally subject (and not only de-facto having to toe the alliance line as everyone in Europe eg Spain). If Austria had that mindset they would have used similar solutions for at least Parma, if not Modena and Tuscany too. They (rightly) didn't want semi-autonomous power centers inside their borders!
About Naples, best to stick with Murat, although his (or I think better his wife's) early death my lead Napoleon to give Eugene both Naples (as King) and Italy (as viceroy). It would be an unwieldy construct, not going to last the various internal and external pressures of 1814.

Another imo better option could be having Eugene suffer his stroke in 1813 and Murat being appointed head of the combined Italian army as he wanted. He could try and ride the Italian national cause like in 1815 but this time on the Allies' side and against the French occupied parts. Obviously he won't be allowed to keep the whole peninsula, but he might possibly be awarded the Papal Legations besides being recognised in Naples? He would, after all have dealt a big blow to Napoleon, much more than in otl.

It's a bit of a stretch, but if Eugene had taken a leaf from the tactics of his stepfather (a whiff of grapeshot) the coup might have worked. Its success (coupled with a political U-turn by asking to join the Coalition) would have improved the overall chances of Eugene. Ideally this would happen after Eugene had alrady opened channels with the Coalition, maybe using the good offices of his father-in-law
About the whiff of grapes hot thing, it must be u derstiod that the riot wasn'the really spontaneous and only succeeded because Eugene was not in Milan, Melzi d'Eril was ill and general Pino ordered troops to stay put in the barracks (he was later put in the otherwise aristocrat dominated provisional government so this wasn'the mere incompetence). Eugene has to bring the "Italici Puri" faction on his side by promising independence and cutting ties with France (totally out if character for him) and he must purge the Muratian officers from the army.

In short I think I must agree with the position that independent Lombardy is not really going to happen, not without an extremely contrived set of PODs or basically what is usually called here ASB - personally I like to restrict the term only to supernatural events, but I understand what you mean.

About the Papal Legations, there is always the matter of dispossession the Pope to give land to Napoleon's stepson, it can only work if he really jumps ship together with Bavaria and thus causes true damage to Napoleon's cause and is seen as worthy of compensation, but I don't like PODs that utterly change someone's personality (although I probably used one with Murat in "An Ausonian Tale"). Otherwise we have seen how precarious his position in Lombardy is in spring 1814, why should the Allies compensate him with anything when they can crush him? Austria alone could easily do that once Napoleon is gone, no need for Allies really for that.
In late 1813 he will very likely ask for Milan at least as a price, I don't think he would have accepted just the Legations even if he had been willing to betray Napoleon...
 
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About the whiff of grapes hot thing, it must be u derstiod that the riot wasn'the really spontaneous and only succeeded because Eugene was not in Milan, Melzi d'Eril was ill and general Pino ordered troops to stay put in the barracks (he was later put in the otherwise aristocrat dominated provisional government so this wasn'the mere incompetence). Eugene has to bring the "Italici Puri" faction on his side by promising independence and cutting ties with France (totally out if character for him) and he must purge the Muratian officers from the army.

In short I think I must agree with the position that independent Lombardy is not really going to happen, not without an extremely contrived set of PODs or basically what is usually called here ASB - personally I like to restrict the term only to supernatural events, but I understand what you mean.

About the Papal Legations, there is always the matter of dispossession the Pope to give land to Napoleon's stepson, it can only work if he really jumps ship together with Bavaria and thus causes true damage to Napoleon's cause and is seen as worthy of compensation, but I don't like PODs that utterly change someone's personality (although I probably used one with Murat in "An Ausonian Tale"). Otherwise we have seen how precarious his position in Lombardy is in spring 1814, why should the Allies compensate him with anything when they can crush him? Austria alone could easily do that once Napoleon is gone, no need for Allies really for that.
In late 1813 he will very likely ask for Milan at least as a price, I don't think he would have accepted just the Legations even if he had been willing to betray Napoleon...

I see that - as usual - you've done your research: I must admit I never considered Eugene as a possible political survivor after the downfall of Napoleon.
I've to say that the attempt to grab the Italian crown at the last and most unlikely moment was a very naive move, the more so since he had not done his groundwork in advance and was not even in Milan (incidentally the events in Milan remember very closely what happened in 1848, when Casati and the aristocracy weakened the position of the Provisional Government in their urge to offer Lombardy to Charles Albert, and Cattaneo did not prove himself to be more politically adept than Eugene was).

However your comment about PODs that utterly change the personality of an individual made me think: it is very hard to believe that Eugene might ditch Napoleon immediately after Leipzig (although it might be argued that Leipzig came after Spain and Russia, and the writing was on the wall). What happens however if by the time of Leipzig there is already a divide between Eugene and his stepfather? It might be a slight (real or imagined) or the distaste at the way Napoleon abandoned his Grand Armee (a sizable portion of which was made up of Italians) to its destiny or a combination of the two, maybe compounded by the fact that Eugene's loyalty is shifting toward the interests of the people he's governing? Eugene certainly knew of the decision of his father-in-law to change his alliance, and was himself contacted: if he is already disillusioned about Napoleon, his decisions might well be different. It may still be a stretch, but not necessarily a major one, and his wife could manage to push him in the right direction. What he is being promised and what he's going to get after the dust settles may well be two different things, and I suppose it will depend on the role he's going to play in the end of Napoleon.
The same approach might as well work to sway Murat, whose relation with Napoleon was not always a good one: in his case I would say that the loyalty towards the people of his kingdom may be the deciding factor (and in his case too the wife would play a significant role).
 
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