Could 'a more Germanic' Charlemagne lead to a true pan-Germanic Empire?

[Mario]

Imagine that Charlemagne would have focus on the Germanic part of his realm and would have never involved in the Roman/Italian issues, thus not becoming a Western Roman Emperor.

Instead of this, he would consolidate a properly only-Germanic strong monarchy with a permanent core in actual Germany-Neustria and leaving the most Latinized parts (Aquitaine, North Italy...) to break away under the rule of some of his heirs (this is, keeping the Germanic core united and not dividing it Verdun-style).

And then we could assume that it could expand its influence later to Scandinavia (as Christianism expands there) and also Britain (in a conquest event analogue to OTL 1066).

Do you consider that it could develop into a sort of pan-Germanic kingdom (Germany-Scandinavia-British Isles)? Which consequences it could bring to the Catholic Church if Rome is neglected to its fate and the center of Christianism is displaced to the North? Would a pan-Germanic language replace Latin as administrative/international/religious language?

 

[Salvador79]

Imagine that Charlemagne would have focus on the Germanic part of his realm and would have never involved in the Roman/Italian issues, thus not becoming a Western Roman Emperor.

Instead of this, he would consolidate a properly only-Germanic strong monarchy with a permanent core in actual Germany-Neustria and leaving the most Latinized parts (Aquitaine, North Italy...) to break away under the rule of some of his heirs (this is, keeping the Germanic core united and not dividing it Verdun-style).

And then we could assume that it could expand its influence later to Scandinavia (as Christianism expands there) and also Britain (in a conquest event analogue to OTL 1066).

Do you consider that it could develop into a sort of pan-Germanic kingdom (Germany-Scandinavia-British Isles)? Which consequences it could bring to the Catholic Church if Rome is neglected to its fate and the center of Christianism is displaced to the North? Would a pan-Germanic language replace Latin as administrative/international/religious language?

Many historians portray Charlemagne as deeply Catholic. That must draw him into Italian matters. But even if he wasn`t, what would have motivated him? The Roman territories were more agriculturally productive (not just woodlands everywhere) and thus wealthier. Rome was where glory and grandeur came from. What on Earth would he have wanted with a pan-Germanic Empire of Woods and Swamps? The idea of "nations" or "races" or whatever is a millennium away. Also, the more Germanic the land, the less easy to control: worse infrastructure, less educated people, less people who see any point in an empire that stretches dozens of times farther than they or their fathers had ever travelled before. Thus, if this path had been chosen, the Empire would have disintegrated soon enough, too.

Now, if we assume that, for whatever reason, the path is pursued and the Empire holds together, then it needs a military solution to the Viking threat. If one is found, then bringing the Anglo-Saxons into the fold is conceivable (the Empire becomes the protective shield), though not Scandinavia, as it is once again too vast to be controlled against hostile groups and too poor to deserve any serious effort in that direction.

If this England-Neustrian behemoth works well and contains all its centrifugal tendencies (though how it would do that without the legitimacy of being condoned by Roman Christianity escapes me) for a century or two, then the Middle Ages look very different from the ones we know. A Germanic Patriarchy maybe - in analogy to the Syriac and Coptic ones in earlier centuries?

The key problem is to find some core which would keep the thing together. The answers to your questions depend on what that is

 

[Mario]

Many historians portray Charlemagne as deeply Catholic. That must draw him into Italian matters.

Yes, this is the main reason that compelled him to get into the Italian issues. That's why the PoD should be: he is more Germanic and less Catholic (= he is not interested in the Italian problems).

But even if he wasn`t, what would have motivated him? The Roman territories were more agriculturally productive (not just woodlands everywhere) and thus wealthier. Rome was where glory and grandeur came from.

Mostly the lack of interest of expanding the Empire southwards. Italian territories were more productive but at the late 700s were far from their past glory. The Roman grandeur was forgotten by then, specially out of the former Empire and out of the monastic world. In fact, the 'new' Western Roman Emperors declined to reside in Rome until Otto (late 900s).

Just make Charlemagne to have no interest in battling against the Lombards or anything related to Italy, like his ancestors did.

What on Earth would he have wanted with a pan-Germanic Empire of Woods and Swamps? The idea of "nations" or "races" or whatever is a millennium away. Also, the more Germanic the land, the less easy to control: worse infrastructure, less educated people, less people who see any point in an empire that stretches dozens of times farther than they or their fathers had ever travelled before. Thus, if this path had been chosen, the Empire would have disintegrated soon enough, too.

The key point is to develop a civilized core. Maybe the axis Seine valley - Rhine valley, where agriculture and cities were enough developed by the time. Focus on it, do not divide it (OTL Verdun killed it) and expand it gradually to more peripheral areas.

Of course I am not speaking about nations, in fact this area was plurinational, but they shared many cultural background and trade between them.

Now, if we assume that, for whatever reason, the path is pursued and the Empire holds together, then it needs a military solution to the Viking threat. If one is found, then bringing the Anglo-Saxons into the fold is conceivable (the Empire becomes the protective shield), though not Scandinavia, as it is once again too vast to be controlled against hostile groups and too poor to deserve any serious effort in that direction.

I think the Viking threat should be pushed to a compromise similar to Normandy - France. Grant lands to them and keep them under the Imperial influence. And about Scandinavia I was thinking about Denmark and Scania mainly, as the rest were still too feral to be controlled in any way.

If this England-Neustrian behemoth works well and contains all its centrifugal tendencies (though how it would do that without the legitimacy of being condoned by Roman Christianity escapes me) for a century or two, then the Middle Ages look very different from the ones we know. A Germanic Patriarchy maybe - in analogy to the Syriac and Coptic ones in earlier centuries?

I think that this scenario requires that a new Christian/Catholic authority might replace Rome in the Germanic area (or even as a whole if Rome finally falls). Maybe the Archbishop of Cologne becomes a Patriarch or something like this and the Germanic nations accept his dominance. It would help a lot to keep this Empire together, even more if Rome falls to the Lombards/Caliphate/whatever.

The key problem is to find some core which would keep the thing together. The answers to your questions depend on what that is

I will make a map for better knowledge

 

[Salvador79]

OK, a German Patriarch in Cologne (or Aachen/Aix), and strengthening the ties between half-urbanised regions in the Seine-Mosel(le)-Rhine area seem interesting. Some theological dispute between Cologne and Rome would help cement the division. You`d still have to establish a different Frankish inheritance / succession tradition, and control over peripheral lands (Alemannia, Bavaria, Thuringia, what about Saxony?) would be weak, at best.

I like the idea of a religious split, though. Once converted to the doctrine of the Cologne Patriarchs, Vikings / Normans could in fact become instrumentalised as warriors of the true faith against heretics who are loyal to Rome. If the focus is not supposed to be in the South, then there are still plenty of targets for Viking-enforced conversion on the British isles.

 

[Mario]

I have drawn a map with the core of this eventual Germanic Empire, encompassing the Seine-Meuse-Mosel-Rhine-Main axis, in dark orange.

In light orange the main peripheral areas for early expansion and in light yellow the desired areas of religious/political influence which could fit a later expansion.

 

[Salvador79]

Nice map.
Though, even if we assume that our *Charlemagne doesn`t want to bother with the Langobards anymore, there`s still the question why on Earth he would neglect Southern Gaul? Just because it´s Romanised? That would rather be a counter-argument. I mean, why leave Southern France to others and subdue something as cold and godforsaken as Scania instead???

Also, there are lots of other non-Germanic speaking people around in the regions pained in lighter orange; primarily Western Slavs, but also Balts and Uralic groups. Do you envision them getting Germanised, if you want a pan-Germanic Empire?

 

[Germania09]

I would assume in this version of Charlemagne that he is idealistically pursuing a dream of uniting all Germanic peoples under his rule, rolling back the slavs and as well more importantly bringing the salvation of Catholicism to these pagan peoples. All in all an interesting TL

 

[Mario]

Nice map.

Thanks

Though, even if we assume that our *Charlemagne doesn`t want to bother with the Langobards anymore, there`s still the question why on Earth he would neglect Southern Gaul? Just because it´s Romanised? That would rather be a counter-argument. I mean, why leave Southern France to others and subdue something as cold and godforsaken as Scania instead???

I assumed that without the Italian campaigns, at least one of the other sons of Charlemagne would have survived until his father's death. Then, one of them would have inherited Aquitaine and probably Burgundy; and this kingdom, even if a 'vassal' at first, would have eventually break away from the core if disputes between Charlemagne's heirs are similar to OTL.

Sort of: instead of a West Francia vs East Francia post-Verdun division, a different division that was more or less set by Charlemagne IOTL if more than one son would have survived until his death.

And Scania and the areas in light yellow are areas to be under influence later on, when the Empire had fully become Germanic-Nordic (maybe around 1000s).

Also, there are lots of other non-Germanic speaking people around in the regions pained in lighter orange; primarily Western Slavs, but also Balts and Uralic groups. Do you envision them getting Germanised, if you want a pan-Germanic Empire?

If they are subdued at an early stage yes, as it happened with most of Pomeranian Slavs IOTL, for example.

 

[Westphalian]

IMO the only realistic way to have the Franks leave Italy and South Gaul alone would be if someone else held them who proved to be stronger.

Either
+ the Arabs, be it via Spain or direct naval action upwrads the Rhone: highly unlikely
+ a resurgent Visigothic/Aquitanian or Burgundian kingdom: Seems unlikely as well and would certainly need a radical weakening of the Franks; and that would compromise the whole Frankish Pan-Germanicism idea.
+ a strong Lombard king not only keeping Italy but also conquering Burgundy: could b, with the author's thumb on the scales
+ a second Justinian-type ERE, conquering Italia and parts of Gaul. Unlikely, with the Caliphate in Syria and Egypt. OTOH, if the ERE brings the Patriarch of Rome back into the fold of obedient prelates of the Universal Church, then the idea of a *Francican or *Germanican church with its own head seems like a natural possibility.

But the Franks simply ignoring the rich southern area for vague "racial" ideas does not sound believable, tbh.

 

[Salvador79]

Then, one of them would have inherited Aquitaine and probably Burgundy; and this kingdom, even if a 'vassal' at first, would have eventually break away from the core if disputes between Charlemagne's heirs are similar to OTL.

Sort of: instead of a West Francia vs East Francia post-Verdun division, a different division that was more or less set by Charlemagne IOTL if more than one son would have survived until his death.

OK.
What are *Burgundy and *Aquitaine doing in this TL? What happens to the *Langobards?

I would assume in this version of Charlemagne that he is idealistically pursuing a dream of uniting all Germanic peoples under his rule, rolling back the slavs and as well more importantly bringing the salvation of Catholicism to these pagan peoples. All in all an interesting TL

It is. But would all of *Charlemagne`s successors share this somewhat historically unprecedented Northern focus? What would compel them?

Perhaps this is not impossible. But I´ve just discovered another major question which needs to be answered, apart from that of the common core: the question of why the fate of this rather large empire stays divorced from that of its Southern neighbours. All the conflicts that will arise, this empire will abstain from intervening? Why? If it really covers the entire area painted in darker yellow, it can easily take on individual Mediterranean states and conquer them or do whatever it feels like with them.

Now, things were different, of course, if the Mediterranean united or allied to some extent, too...

Completely not our Middle Ages, but maybe...

 

[Westphalian]

Here is a map of French and Germanic dialects:

Even in 800, the cities are where the wealth is.
North of Alps and Pyrenees, you have

Paris 25K-30K
Metz 25K
Regensburg 25K
Mainz 20K
Speyer 20K
Tours 20K
Cologne 15K
Trier 15K
Lyon 12K
Rouen 10K
Worms 10K
Poitiers 10K
Provins 10K
Rennes 10K

That is not a complete, but strong bias towards the Romance-language areas; cities in italics. Cities in the Frankish settlement area are underlined. Only Regensburg is neither (Bavarian).

If Charlemagne keeps the Romance-cities, then their cultural pull will ensure that many of the Franks become the French.
If he gives them up, then the remainder might not have enough economic and cultural power to create this Germanic empire.

I do not see a plausible way to solve this.

 

[Salvador79]

Was Metz Romance-speaking? I suppose the long-standing core of the Merowingians was at least strongly bilingual?

 

[Germania09]

It is. But would all of *Charlemagne`s successors share this somewhat historically unprecedented Northern focus? What would compel them?

I understand where you're coming from in that the northern focus is cold, filled with swamps deep forests and undeveloped everything. But think of the same mindset that led Charlemagne to lead what amounts to a Holy War against the Saxons. The idea that while the Southern focus would lead to definite wealth and glory but to the north lies vast tracts of land all for the taking filed with "barbaric" tribes bereft of the rule of law and lacking a proper civilization and all those things. I'm sure his successors will support it for more of the same line if only to gain more and more land for their nobles and for themselves.

 

[Westphalian]

Was Metz Romance-speaking? I suppose the long-standing core of the Merowingians was at least strongly bilingual?

Maybe, I will gladly accept it as blilingual.

 

[Mario]

OK, so to put the ideas in order, I think the most realistic scenario should be like this:

- Main PoD: Charlemagne refuses to intervene in the Italian issues. The Carolingians do not campaign in Italy and Charlemagne never becomes Western Roman Emperor.

- Consequences: his son Pepin does not die at result of an illness acquired during the siege of Venice, because he would never go there ITTL. This means that when Charlemagne dies, he has two living heirs instead of only one as IOTL.

- As Pepin is older than Louis the Pious, he inherits the bulk of the Empire while Louis the Pious gets Aquitaine, Burgundy and the Spanish March, as it was originally planned by his father IOTL.

- This leads to a division between North Francia (Pepin) and South Francia (Louis the Pious) in a similar way to IOTL West Francia vs East Francia. Louis and Pepin take diverging paths and the two kingdoms split up.

- Both new Kings implement new rules for avoiding further divisions. South Francia gets involved in the Italian issues and the Spanish Reconquista, while North Francia has to deal with Vikings and the Slavic pressure in the East.

Additionally, the North becomes more homogenously Germanized while the South keeps the Latin culture. The Catholic Church remains strong in the South while the North starts to diverge in its own Christian branch.

 

[Westphalian]

OK, so to put the ideas in order, I think the most realistic scenario should be like this:

- Main PoD: Charlemagne refuses to intervene in the Italian issues. The Carolingians do not campaign in Italy and Charlemagne never becomes Western Roman Emperor.

- Consequences: his son Pepin does not die at result of an illness acquired during the siege of Venice, because he would never go there ITTL. This means that when Charlemagne dies, he has two living heirs instead of only one as IOTL.

- As Pepin is older than Louis the Pious, he inherits the bulk of the Empire while Louis the Pious gets Aquitaine, Burgundy and the Spanish March, as it was originally planned by his father IOTL.

- This leads to a division between North Francia (Pepin) and South Francia (Louis the Pious) in a similar way to IOTL West Francia vs East Francia. Louis and Pepin take diverging paths and the two kingdoms split up.

- Both new Kings implement new rules for avoiding further divisions. South Francia gets involved in the Italian issues and the Spanish Reconquista, while North Francia has to deal with Vikings and the Slavic pressure in the East.

Additionally, the North becomes more homogenously Germanized while the South keeps the Latin culture. The Catholic Church remains strong in the South while the North starts to diverge in its own Christian branch.

It's a later PoD, but you could also go with the OTL Divisio regnorum of 806, Charlemangne's will in which he divides the empire among his three sons: Pepin owould get Italy and the Alps up to the Danube, Louis the Pious would get Aquitabnia and most of Burgundy, while Charles the younger would get Neustria and the Germanic parts.

 

[Mario]

It's a later PoD, but you could also go with the OTL Divisio regnorum of 806, Charlemangne's will in which he divides the empire among his three sons: Pepin owould get Italy and the Alps up to the Danube, Louis the Pious would get Aquitabnia and most of Burgundy, while Charles the younger would get Neustria and the Germanic parts.

Yes, so if we assume the correction given that Charles dies as IOTL but Pepin survives because he is not besieging Venice, the partition would be like in this map, with the areas of eventual expansion for each Kingdom:

 

[Westphalian]

This North Frankish kingdom still contains all of the langues d'oïl, with the exception of Poitevin-Saintongeais. While your PoD is great for a permanent differentiation of the langues d'oïl and thelangue d'oc into completely different languages, I am not sure that it helps with the creation of a decidedly Germanic empire.

 

[Mario]

This North Frankish kingdom still contains all of the langues d'oïl, with the exception of Poitevin-Saintongeais. While your PoD is great for a permanent differentiation of the langues d'oïl and thelangue d'oc into completely different languages, I am not sure that it helps with the creation of a decidedly Germanic empire.

The Latin-speaking fraction of the North is greatly reduced compared to the Germanic-speaking area. If Old German(ic) achieves a dominant position in the administration, and also in the Church if the Northern Christianism eventually diverges from Catholicism, the still not consolidated langues d'oeil will probably decline in opposition to the rising Old German(ic).

 

[Westphalian]

The Latin-speaking fraction of the North is greatly reduced compared to the Germanic-speaking area. If Old German(ic) achieves a dominant position in the administration, and also in the Church if the Northern Christianism eventually diverges from Catholicism, the still not consolidated langues d'oeil will probably decline in opposition to the rising Old German(ic).

Obviously I cannot say that the emergence of a Germanic lingua franca (heh!) as tool of the administration cannot happen, since in the end OTL German was not overwhelmed by latinate Italian in the HRE.

So I remain very interested where your TL will lead. Thanky you for sharing your ideas.