Consequences of :Succesful Paris Commune

[dead_wolf]

Alright guys Perfidious Albion and I have been talking in PM and he's provided a source (Hart-Davis' The Franco-Prussian War) that states that Empress Eugenie was in fact attempting to negotiate with Bismarck to end the war on Bonapartist terms. I haven't read the work myself, and will have to find a copy, but I'm willing to accept the source so let's continue the conversation from there.

Obviously this changes many of my objections raised in the thread regarding a Bonapartist restoration. Now the question is, even if Eugenie's efforts are successful, on what terms exactly are we going to see the Germans agree to?

Bismarck, Wilhelm, and the Prussian General Staff hated the Bonapartist slightly less than then republicans but I'm still not sure they're going to be willing to commit themselves to a long fight for the matter, after all Bismarck was willing to negotiate with the Government of National Defense IOTL. If the campaign against the communards goes on for a long time, say, there's still active fighting and troops are being forced to occupy major cities to keep them in line by winter of 1871, what happens next?

 

[Perfidious Albion]

Sorry that I was unclear, dead_wolf; Hart-Davis is the publisher, Michael Howard is the author.

We should probably note that the negotiations with the Bonapartes were not only due to an inherent belief that monarchies were stabler neighbours than dangerous radical republics (though it's fair to deduce from Bismarck's communication to King Wilhelm I that such sentiments were a part of it, at least in the mind of Bismarck) but also due to the simple fact that there were major delays in the Empress's emissary turning up (due to political considerations within the Bonapartist camp) and so the Government of National Defence, contrary to all previous inclinations, proved willing to accept Germany's terms before the Bonapartes did. So if the Communards appear willing to accept Germany's terms, Germany may well let them stay in power even in spite of the ideological disconnect.

I confess myself highly sceptical that a newly established, highly ideological revolutionary government would be so cautious, especially when any Communard surrender could be spun as treason by French conservatives of all types (who were a majority in France at the time) and used as a rallying cry to depose a Communard government and the Communards, presuming that they're intelligent enough to notice the mood of the country they're in, would be very aware of this threat. (The OP posited a Communard victory against the other French factions, not the magical suppression of everyone in France who disagreed with socialism.) Indeed, if we take a look at OTL, despite the enormous role of the Second Empire's wartime incompetence in establishing OTL's Third Republic, that only made the Third Republic fight harder, because republican ideologues were convinced (as we know in retrospect, wrongly) that defeat in the war, even though Napoleon III had started it, would mean the triumph of reactionaries and the death of their revolution.

 

[dead_wolf]

Well the Commune was after the Germans have already accepted the surrender of the Government of National Defense, and indeed after Wilhem had been declared German Emperor at Versailles. The question now is the Germans win the war and then move to place Napoleon IV back in Paris, and then the communard uprisings begin in Paris, Grenoble, etc.

 

[Perfidious Albion]

Well the Commune was after the Germans have already accepted the surrender of the Government of National Defense, and indeed after Wilhem had been declared German Emperor at Versailles. The question now is the Germans win the war and then move to place Napoleon IV back in Paris, and then the communard uprisings begin in Paris, Grenoble, etc.

Ah. Well, that changes things. The main problem that Germany had with the GND was that it kept on fighting long past the stage where Germany thought that the outcome of the war was already obvious so the GND ought to just give up and surrender… but instead the GND was keeping on fighting, using francs-tireurs, constantly creating yet more armies and throwing them fruitlessly at the German behemoth and generally making a nuisance of itself from the German perspective. The Germans had won the war and they wanted to be able to get their terms acknowledged and then get out of France.

If the GND has already surrendered and the Bonapartes have not (as was the case IOTL), I can't see Germany bothering to reinstall the Bonapartes, unless there's a PoD before the GND surrender which leads to the GND doing something really nasty that turns the opinion of some of the German leaders towards believing that the GND cannot be permitted to continue to exist (it would have to be something quite extreme, I think).

(Of course, we can't discount the fact that realistically any PoD which results in a successful Commune will probably be quite a while before the GND surrender and therefore, for all I know, the OTL outcome might be reversed and the Bonapartes might surrender first, but for the sake of argument let's just say that the Communards succeed due to handwavium without any changes from OTL before the materialisation of the Commune and move on from there.)

How much my ignorance of the chronology of the socialist uprising has distorted things! In that case, Germany might not bother to intervene in a purely internal French affair, since the surrender has already happened and Germany has no need to worry about France any more…

…except the traditional socialist measure of cancelling debts, which a victorious Commune would probably adopt as a populist move, and the risk (from Germany's perspective) of a Communard government not recognising the previous government's bargaining away Alsace-Lorraine. Unless the victorious Commune immediately moves to reassure the Germans (which would go down very poorly with the French people) then its future doesn't look very bright. Well, crap. So Germany does intervene and of course win, and as for which of the two potential governments it chooses to restore…? Whoever Germany feels is likely to be a stabler neighbour. The collapse of the GND will provide a powerful argument for the Bonapartists, but on the other hand Bismarck might recognise the danger of being seen to impose a disliked ruler on the French people, and if the GND retains control of any part of metropolitan France then that will make it easier for them to reclaim control.

 

[Emperor Constantine]

A few questions and observations of the real situation in France. 1. How popular WERE the communes really? I know that many cities had communes established during this time but most quickly collapsed with the fall of Paris. And from reading the Wikipedia page on the Paris commune, it suggests that the communes outside of Paris quickly collapsed, even without the French army. 2. The national assembly was led by the Royalists at the time, so how would they react to a more successful commune? Beg the Germans for help and maybe military support for a restoration? 3. The army situation. From what I read on Wikipedia the Versailles government was able to rapidly create a new army, from units in the provinces and returning prisoners-of-war from Germany, which proved willing to fire on the National guard and the commune forces. So I'm not seeing how the Commune could win from a military POV.

With all this I'm not seeing how the Commune can win this? The most that would realistically happen is a more bloody suppression by the army, along with the government remaining in Versailles longer.

 

[Perfidious Albion]

A few questions and observations of the real situation in France. 1. How popular WERE the communes really?

Sufficiently unpopular that elections in the early Third Republic tended to give great majorities of conservative Catholic royalists. They didn't have the mass popular support that was often attributed to them; it might have been a significant minority, but the majority was royalist. Crucially, the French Army wasn't fond of them and didn't object at all to being used by the government to suppress them.

I know that many cities had communes established during this time but most quickly collapsed with the fall of Paris. And from reading the Wikipedia page on the Paris commune, it suggests that the communes outside of Paris quickly collapsed, even without the French army.

Interesting. I suppose, though, it could be just the realisation of various Communards that if Paris has been retaken by the government and, more importantly, the Army is fully loyal to the government then perhaps it's not a good time to be openly opposing the government.

2. The national assembly was led by the Royalists at the time, so how would they react to a more successful commune? Beg the Germans for help and maybe military support for a restoration?

This boils down to the reason why the Third Republic lasted IOTL; recall Adolphe Thiers's comment that republicanism was the form of government that "divides us [France] least". The royalists weren't agreed on which king they wanted to restore. Bonapartism was more or less discredited by this point, but the Orléanists and the legitimists would block each other's proposals until there came a settled compromise whereby the legitimist candidate would take the throne and declare the Orléanist candidate his heir, and by the time they had compromised republicanism had regained prominence and it was too late for a restoration.

As for German military support, I'd think the government would only do so if the situation were very bleak (although I think that such bleakness is very unlikely because both the majority of public opinion and the Army were supporting the government and the Communards were incapable of resisting those forces). It would be a good way to drive fence-sitters to the Communards. But nonetheless, if they did ask for such support (and I'd think that they would do so eventually, even if by that point the Commune is in more or less total control of France) then the intervention of the German Army would successfully overthrow the Commune, as is obvious to anyone with a brain.

3. The army situation. From what I read on Wikipedia the Versailles government was able to rapidly create a new army, from units in the provinces and returning prisoners-of-war from Germany, which proved willing to fire on the National guard and the commune forces. So I'm not seeing how the Commune could win from a military POV.

Perceptive, and crucial.

With all this I'm not seeing how the Commune can win this? The most that would realistically happen is a more bloody suppression by the army, along with the government remaining in Versailles longer.

Again, perceptive. I agree. Such a thing might have interesting effects on French politics down the line, but I think that it's entirely reasonable to describe the Commune as a fairly minor uprising whose importance was much exaggerated by socialists. (That's not a condemnation of socialism; it's a matter of historical fact.)