British Reward for WWI Neutrality

Deleted member 1487

If Germany wins WW1 they will remains in Belgium forever that what they planned as part of the Bethmann-Hollweg Septemberprogramm. It makes perfect sense for them on a strategic basis to neutralise or even annex Belgium outright:

Much depends on the length of the war, but the Septemberprogramm was just an idea put forth by Bethmann-Hollweg and was quickly rejected as impractical. Much of the German plans for permanent occupation in Poland, Belgium, or even parts of France were the products of the imagination of the fevered minds of Hindenburg-Ludendorff. Granted, it got a LOT of play in certain circles during the hysterical years of the war, but I doubt it would play out that way, especially once civilian resistance kicks up with outside support (Britain won't accept German occupation). France won't be occupied, other than parts ceded under the peace deal. For a few years parts of France proper will be occupied, much like how the Rheinland was after OTL war, but like OTL Franco-Prussian war, most of the occupation will be over once payments start rolling in or at least a fixed amount is paid.

Belgium is another situation entirely. Depending on the length of the war, German bargaining position, and British will to continue the fight, Belgium may see parts occupied, though I highly doubt anything longer than 5-10 years could be maintained thanks to the increasing strength of the Socialists at home. Germany already has too many minorities within her borders and doesn't need more. Certain crazies may not care, but the Socialists do, as do a significant part of the military and nobles.

German internal politics and demographics will really have the largest bearing on the peace and years after than any scheme cooked up by Bethmann-Hollweg or the Kaiser.
 
What I can see is to have Germany gives Tanzania to Britain to fulfill the Cairo-to-Cape Town railway or Germany itself renounces all colonies to Britain. In the short-term run, Britain will be threatened its naval power if they keep neutral and let Germany conquer Belgium and crush France that is why Britain is making an alliance with France to check German naval rise and to prevent German's domination of continental Europe which is against to British interests.

However, in a long-run, Britain will be in better shape if they let Germany dominates continental Europe (because Germany victory in WWI will prevent Nazis to rise or maybe Communism in Russia and make an EU-like federation to stimulate the economic development to compete Britain and the rising United States) and return to its previous policy of Splendid Isolation and granting domination status to their colonies especially India and most of all, those intellectuals who died in WWI will be saved and continues to develop Britain to remain a top dog nation by now.
 
Frankly it is quite cocky to say that the Franco-Prussian war of 1870 stems from French agression. While I agree entirely with the fact that Napoleon III could have tossed asside the Hohenzollern on the throne of Spain affair and accepted the whole thing. You have to admit that this was just to good an opportunity to pass up for Bismark to best Napoleon III and fulfill his dream of uniting Germany.

The fact that German nationalists welcomed the French DoW does not change the fact that it was France who started the war. Prussia agreed to retract their candidate to the Spanish throne and France wanted war anyways. And declaring war because a foreign king has insulted your foreign minister is just naked aggression, nothing more.

Did Napoleon III wanted to annex Rheinland, he sure did without a shadow of a doubt. Is this a good thing or a bad thing. Well unless the French government would have been willing to offer significant concessions to the local population like billingualism and autonomy, the province would likely have been restive and a drain on the treasury.

Administering the Rhineland after a victory in 1871 would have been way more difficult for France than administering Alsace-Lorraine was for Germany, that's for sure. The population of AL was mostly hostile towards Germany in the beginning, but the population of the Rhineland would have hated the French oppressors beyond words. And decent minority rights weren't the order of things back then, so I guess Napoleon III would have tried to Francify the Rhinelanders only to increase their hatred a thousand times.

I must admit however despite the fact that I consider the Kaiserreich to have been a rival of France and Britain I do have some admiration for it. What you guys did what amazing and we would have (and still do to an extent) benefited a lot by implementing some of your policies.

Let us not start WW3 over Saarland and Elssas-Lothringen shall we :)?

No, the current relations between France and Germany are just fine to me. Definitively better than anything that happened between our countries between the 30 years war and WWII, that's for sure!:D
 
So why would the United Kingdom not enter the war? It's not in their interest that a single country achieve hegemony over europe. And Germany having control of the Belgian ports was innaceptable. If you want a neutral United Kingdom in that war you must change the POD.
 

Eurofed

Banned
So why would the United Kingdom not enter the war? It's not in their interest that a single country achieve hegemony over europe. And Germany having control of the Belgian ports was innaceptable. If you want a neutral United Kingdom in that war you must change the POD.

One possibility is the scenario I made up in the other "WI Entente is the aggressor" thread:

PoD 1: a freak accident claims the life of Von Schliffen. In the reshuffle of the German High Command that ensues, a hard look is given into his (in)famous plan, and the conclusion is that it is too diplomatically risky and logistically difficult to implement. The High Command notifies the Kaiser that Russia First is the best option in case of a general European war. Since the East strategy promises a somewhat longer war than the defunct Schliffen Plan, the German government takes steps to secure the friendship of other European powers besides Austria in case of a general war.

It cultivates the support of Turkey by giving some military and economic support to the Ottoman Empire and this hence strengthens the hand of the Germanophile faction in Constantinople. It pressures Austria to comply with its treaty obligations towards Italy about compensations for the annexation of Bosnia. Vienna drags its feet, but eventually Italy gets guarantees to receive Trento and Gorizia, and its irredentist claims on France, in case of a general war, so Rome tears up the secret neutrality treaty with France. Berlin also makes some openings to Britain about a reconciliation and solution of the naval dispute, but the talks fail to achieve a major breakthrough since Germany is unwilling to give up too many of its naval toys. The talks generate a little more goodwill for Germany in Britain, however.

PoD 2: In Spring 1914, Tsar Nichy has a dream which he interprets as a clear divine mandate to be the gallant protector of Slav peoples. He gives a more aggressive Pan-Slav spin to the Russian diplomacy in the following months.

Come the Franz Ferdinard assassination. Emboldened by Russian support, Serbia flatly refuses Austria any real cooperation about the investigation of the assassination and curbing the activities of Pan-Slav terrorist organizations. Austria declares war. The actions of Austria and Serbia are controversial in European countries, but many are willing to give Austria the benefit of the doubt about its denunciation of Serbia as a terrorist haven.

Seeing this as a clue from Heaven, Tsar Nichy pushes his goverment to mobilize, and when Austria refuses to back down, Russia declares war to Austria. Germany declares war to Russia. France declares war to Germany. Italy, feeling bound by the terms of the defensive alliance, and clutching the guarantees about territorial compensations for its efforts, declares war to France.

Since Russia is going in a belligerant mood at the moment, nobody in St. Petersburg cares fast enough about the actions of the rogue commander of the Baltic Fleet, who has decided that Sweden is going to join the CP and a pre-emptive attack is warranted, so he goes and shells the Swedish fleet. Outraged Sweden declares war to Russia that solidifies its reputation as an aggressor. In the face of recent Russian actions and the array of forces already raised against the Entente, the Germanophile faction in the Ottoman government, which argues this is a unique opportunity to cut down Turkey's traditional enemy, gets the upper hand and the Ottoman Empire declares war to Russia.

In Britain, the majority opinion holds that a war which Serbia, Russia, and France brought upon themselves against most of Europe is no matter to expend British blood and money on their behalf and the anti-German faction is shouted down. Britain declares its neutrality. Soon afterwards, the Home Rule goes into force and Ireland explodes as Ulster Unionists take arms to oppose it, taking Britain's mind away from continental issues.

America clings to neutrality, but majority opinion largely favors the CP, as Americans of German, Italian, and Swedish descent lobby for them.

Bulgaria joins the war and Serbia is overrun and its army encircled and destroyed by Ausirian, Bulgarian, and Italian (through Albania) offensives. Greece switches to pro-CP neutrality. Romania, seeing that the Balkans have become a CP playground, decides that a safer Bessarabia consolation prize is better than a risky Transylvania top prize and joins the CP.

Russia is gradually worn down as the bulk of CP forces are thrown against it from Finland to the Caucasus. French offensives in Alsace and the Alps get a bloody nose against German and Italian defenses. The harried Entente makes tentative peace openings but talks break down as France and Russia are unwilling to pay the price that the CP ask. Dissent grows in Russia until at the beginnig of 1916, it explodes in revolution. The Tsar is toppled and Russia descends into chaos as various factions, included the Communists lead by Trotzki (Lenin is fuming trapped in neutral Switzerland since the CP don't see necessary to give him free passage).

Russia signs a peace treaty, which sets up Finland, the United Baltic Duchy, and Poland (with the Second Partition border) as independent CP satellites and gives Bessarabia to Romania and Transcaucasia to Turkey.

The full might of the CP is hence thrown against France and French defenses are broken through sheer force of numbers. Paris, Lyon, and Marseilles are occupied and France surrenders. In the peace treaty, Germany annexes Lorraine, French Morocco, Ubangi-Shari, Middle Congo, Gabon, French Dahomey, and Ivory Coast. Italy annexes Nice, Savoy, Corsica, the Riviera, Tunisia, Chad, French Somaliland, Senegal, and French Guinea, as well as Trento and Gorizia. Austria annexes Serbia. Bulgaria annexes Vardar Macedonia.

France descends into chaos but CP military intervention crushes Communist insurrection. It's a coin's toss whether the CP intervene in the Russian Civil War to suppress the Reds. If they do, it is fairly likely that after some further convulsions, Russia descends into fascism. If they don't, most likely we get a Trotzkist Soviet Union. France is fairly likely to slide into fascism, but it is anyone's guess whether they are going to have another turn at revanchism after getting beaten twice in two generations (and thrice in a century). Britain wrings its hands for a while about CP hegemony on the continent, but eventually they realize that it's not the devil and they can mkae nice business with it, and relations between the British Empire and CP Europe improve from that point.

Germany and Italy have some political convulsions as the masses claim their due for the war, but eventually they get headed towards a largely stable liberal consitutional monarchy, just like Sweden. It's everyone's guess whether victory breathes new life in the Habsburg empire and it evolves towards a stable Quadruple Monarchy. Alternatively, attempts to reform fail, internal instability resurfaces, Germany tires out of bailing out the Habsburg, and in the 1920s it collapses and is partitioned by Germany (Austria and an autonomous Bohemia-Moravia), Italy (Istria and central Dalmatia), Poland (Galicia), Hungary (with Slovakia, Backa, and northern Transylvania), Romania (southern Transylvania), Croatia (with Syrmia and the 1939 Banovina of Croatia borders, minus central Dalmatia), and Serbia (with most of Bosnia). The Ottoman Empire most likely enjoys a rejuvenation.
 
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Hendryk

Banned
Yup a nation of shopkeepers :) We should have stayed out. After all what has Belguim ever been but a pain in the arse for the UK? Now its the sodding European Union. I'd have had shot of it. Let the Germans exercise themselves around the Champs d'Eylesse and flog a load of obselete tat to both sides (pretty much as the States did to us in any case). Keep an eye on new developments so that you can keep developing industry and technology and jobs a goodun. Come 1916 and there are millions fewer Germs and Froggies decide which ways best to go and join in with the victor and get some spoils...That was and should have remained the way we played it but George V and his boy wanted that damned Entente...
I actually considered reporting this.

Joking aside, do you really think that OTL world does not works something like Victoria or some other Paradox game?
Ask Clive of India if you dont trust me... ;)
I see that Britwank never gets old on this forum.
 

Susano

Banned
Frankly it is quite cocky to say that the Franco-Prussian war of 1870 stems from French agression. While I agree entirely with the fact that Napoleon III could have tossed asside the Hohenzollern on the throne of Spain affair and accepted the whole thing. You have to admit that this was just to good an opportunity to pass up for Bismark to best Napoleon III and fulfill his dream of uniting Germany.
What the hell? Declaring war over a diplomatic depeche published in shortened form in a regional newspaper surely does sound liek aggression to me. If Bismarck had wanted war, he wouldve pushed the Sigmaringen claimant, and not have tried to convince anybody including the Prussian King to drop it. Basically, Prussia already had given in to French demands. And then France adds insult to injury by making additional demands, and afterwards declares war over the most idiotic thing ever in the history of declarations of wars.

Bismarck of course tried to build up the myth that he had planned for the unification of Germany since the beginning in his memoirs, but they are hence not a fully trustworthy souce. In any case, I really dont see at all how one can see the Franco-German War as anything else but a naked, blunt French aggression!

Did Napoleon III wanted to annex Rheinland, he sure did without a shadow of a doubt.
In an ideal situation. One could almost say it was more of a pipedream of him. He cared more for getting Belgium, I think, and even that wasnt followed on consequently at any point in time. But of course in 1870, Napoleon III wasnt fully in command of the situation anymore, anyway.
 
Eurofed

Total BS and you must know that. What a victorious Germany would have sought to establish would have been a Europe compliant to it's interests. I.e. supplying raw materials to Germany industry, denied the ability to develop it's own industrial base or import from external markets. With total control of security being in German hands. Basically an industrial period version of what Napoleon offered Europe with].

At best you have an autocratic state keeping control, for a while at least, on the entire region including it's own poorer elements and strangling it's own partial democracy in the process. At worse continued revolts and unrest at German control until something gives, probably very violently.

Neither Bonapartist France or Imperial Germany were civil or particularly enlightened. In efforts to maintain the monopoly of power they would lose what claims to either of those parameter they had.

Steve

What disaster for Europe whatsoever ? What the Kaiserreich planned for Europe after the victory was to set up a proto-EU, you know that kind of thing that has kept the continent peaceful and prosperous for the last two generations and half. No German Nazism, no Holocaust, no Stalinist domination of half Europe. Either no WWII, or at worst one with a Red or Black Russia in the shoes of Hitler, and ending with a united continent. There are very good reasons to argue that for Europe, Entente victory was a tragedy. British Empire apologists should really stop thinking like the paranoia of the UK ruling elite about continental unity aligned with the real long-term interest of the continent. For Europe's greater good, it would have been much, much better if unity had been achieved decades or centuries earlier by the victory of an enlightened, civil hegemon like Bonapartist France or the Kaiserreich. In all evidence, a lot of unnecessary suffering would have been spared. British victories in 1815 and 1918 may have been good to delay the fall of the British Empire, but were not good for the continent at all. They gave us nothing but nationalist strife, the Holy Alliance reactionary oppression, fascism, and communism.
 
Yup a nation of shopkeepers :) We should have stayed out. After all what has Belguim ever been but a pain in the arse for the UK? Now its the sodding European Union. I'd have had shot of it. Let the Germans exercise themselves around the Champs d'Eylesse and flog a load of obselete tat to both sides (pretty much as the States did to us in any case). Keep an eye on new developments so that you can keep developing industry and technology and jobs a goodun. Come 1916 and there are millions fewer Germs and Froggies decide which ways best to go and join in with the victor and get some spoils...That was and should have remained the way we played it but George V and his boy wanted that damned Entente...

Watch your words I am from Belgium and I don't really like my country being insulted. We did our share of the fighting. It's easy to critizise others country when your own country never know the horror and atrocities of a foreign occupation. And a victorius WWI Germany mean UK lose all influence on continental europe and an economic isolation.
 
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