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Slightly off topic; The opium market was a East India Company project rather than a British government thing, the government just chose to side with the EIC when China gave an ultimatum.
Fascinating. Hopefully it can still happen in this TL, since India is largely unaffected by the Napoleonic Wars.
The fears Britain had for France and Russia are very different, Britain feared that Russia was a threat to the balance of power and danger to British interests in the East Med and Asia. Napoleonic France could actually invade Britain; an existential threat, that's why Trafalgar was such an important battle and the subsequent raids on French/Dutch dockyards in the Channel. Who's PM right now? It should be Gladstone I think.
My reasoning was that Russia still posed a threat to British interests. That's why IRL they prevented Russia's puppet Bulgaria from getting a coastline in the Aegean, scared of them breaching the confines of the Black and Baltic seas (the inspiration for 30 pieces of silver). The Great Game was also about the Russian threat to British interests in India and Persia.
The Admiralry and the Board of Trade would strongly oppose making a French Suez the Achillies heel of the British economy. So long as Egypt is pro-French, London isn't gonna trust the Suez, also considering Muhammed Ali is far too canny to place himself
Good point. Unless there's a reconciliation between France and Britain consider it not built.
 
China Teaser
China Big Letters.png

Ok. I want some feedback for a draft map. This is really far away from where we left off but I just got sucked in making this, and want your opinion if it's realistic enough. Sorry if the word size and placement is weird, it was the only way for the text to be readable after shrinking the map down to postable size. The final product will be better in that regard.
While the idea of a successful Taiping rebellion was genuinely mine, I afterward stumbled upon and took heavy inspiration from this map (which you should all upvote because it's gorgeous and on a time period not nearly talked about enough).


What I got so far:

Chinese History largely goes the same way from the POD of 1810 to about 1850. The First Opium war still happens as does mass disillusionment with the Qing as a result. Just like IRL the 1850s sees the Qing deal with multiple enormous revolts including but not limited to the Taiping, Nian, Dungan, Miao, and Hui, the Taiping alone accounting for the bloodiest civil war in history while the second Opium war breaks out. IRL they manage to survive (if permanently crippled). In this timeline, it breaks them.

The main change is that the French, under Napoleon III (yes, that one), wanting to break British monopoly in China, actively supply the Taiping Rebels with French commanders and state of the art equipment (as opposed to IRL when the Great Powers all give these to the Qing). With this additional straw, the Qing Dynasty breaks into many pieces.

Taiping Rebels seized control of Southern China, overrunning Shanghai, Macau, and Hong-Kong and granting them as “holy concessions” to France for their help. By far the largest state, they are plagued with incompetent leadership, debauchery, and semi-sucsessful attempts to integrate Confucian beliefs into Taiping Christianity. France enjoys extreme trade privileges and the opium ban is a scapegoat for crushing anything the Taiping don’t like.

The Nian Rebellion slowly fills the power vacuum they helped create in the north. They turned from Banditry into protection rings to protect against other bandits into basically neo-feudalism, with Zhang Lexing claiming the mandate of a new Han Dynasty. Each local warlord is nominally under the restored Han Emperor based in Beijing, and the entire state held-together through the British backed opium trade.

The British turned the newly independent Tibet and Pignan Guo (Panthan Rebels) into buffer states to protect the British Raj from French and Russian influenced states in the region.


The Dungan Revolt succeeded and the Yetteshir Khanate conquered southern Xinjiang as well as Gansu and Nixia. Independence Celebrations were badly dampened when the Russians forced them into their sphere of Influence.

Qin is basically a hodgepodge of refugees seeking asylum from the Yettishir Khanate raids, Bai Han Feudalism, or Taiping purges. They are held together by the Great Powers to be a buffer state and their economy revolves around being the halfway point between the Opium fields of Calcutta and the buyers in Beijing (and smuggled to Nanjing, of course).

The Manchus fled to Manchuria and watched their empire shatter. The Russians generously offered their protection for the the low price of Outer Manchuria and a lease on the Dalian Peninsula (as well as rights to move troops in between).

Mongolia is de-jure under Qing Rule but in reality is just a mess former provincial officials kowtowing to Russia.

What do you think?
 
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The one I made. The reddit one was just where I got inspiration from it. Saved a lot of time researching how China would fall apart.
Thank you, so it’s a great win for Russia as they essentially grab 2/3s of China as puppets with minimal fuss. Britain has a nice easily defensible buffers to protect India.

France arguably has the best prize in Taiping, although I can’t help but feel that French supplies/trade to China is a feeble thread that can be severed almost laughingly easily by the Royal Navy. Also the size and distance of Taiping means they likely will try to push the boundaries while being forced to remain a French satellite due to being surrounded by enemies.

The neutrals powers -aka the leftovers- including Korea and Japan will probably drift into the other spheres as geography demands or be forced by necessity into some kind maybe some kind of ‘Co-Prosperity Sphere’. Who knows
 
Thank you, so it’s a great win for Russia as they essentially grab 2/3s of China as puppets with minimal fuss. Britain has a nice easily defensible buffers to protect India.
Sort of. Keep in mind Russia's part is large but VERY underpopulated. I think they have maybe 15% of China's population? And while big, the territory isn't exactly valuable.
France arguably has the best prize in Taiping, although I can’t help but feel that French supplies/trade to China is a feeble thread that can be severed almost laughingly easily by the Royal Navy. Also the size and distance of Taiping means they likely will try to push the boundaries while being forced to remain a French satellite due to being surrounded by enemies.
Oh French trade is absolutely on a thread, good point I didn't think of. The U.K. is likely annoyed as hell at losing Hong Kong and Macau (held for the Portuguese in exile). I think they are content to keep smuggling drugs and keeping from a full scale war at the risk of losing their market in Bai Han, where Opium is de-facto legal. And I hesitate to call Taiping China in France's satellite. They are extremely grateful and close to the French for their help, but the Brother of Christ only takes orders from God. It's only through a combination of internal strife and competent advisors begging Chinese Jesus to deal with internal issues before expanding externally do they not try to take more land. Thankfully, with the Manchu threat gone, Chinese Jesus is content to let his empire (sort of) govern itself while he loses himself to orgies and general debauchery.
The neutrals powers -aka the leftovers- including Korea and Japan will probably drift into the other spheres as geography demands or be forced by necessity into some kind maybe some kind of ‘Co-Prosperity Sphere’. Who knows
I kind of forgot about Korea. Guess they would go to Russia, too. At least until Japan goes Meiji triggered by Mathew Perry or a Russian counterpart.
 
Sort of. Keep in mind Russia's part is large but VERY underpopulated. I think they have maybe 15% of China's population? And while big, the territory isn't exactly valuable.

Oh French trade is absolutely on a thread, good point I didn't think of. The U.K. is likely annoyed as hell at losing Hong Kong and Macau (held for the Portuguese in exile). I think they are content to keep smuggling drugs and keeping from a full scale war at the risk of losing their market in Bai Han, where Opium is de-facto legal. And I hesitate to call Taiping China in France's satellite. They are extremely grateful and close to the French for their help, but the Brother of Christ only takes orders from God. It's only through a combination of internal strife and competent advisors begging Chinese Jesus to deal with internal issues before expanding externally do they not try to take more land. Thankfully, with the Manchu threat gone, Chinese Jesus is content to let his empire (sort of) govern itself while he loses himself to orgies and general debauchery.

I kind of forgot about Korea. Guess they would go to Russia, too. At least until Japan goes Meiji triggered by Mathew Perry or a Russian counterpart.
You’re right about the Russian puppets in China, though with a captive export market buying Russian goods and services, the Russian economy is gonna be quite a bit better than OTL. And also ‘China’ out populated Russia but now China’s just a geographical expression and there’s likely more Great Russians than there are Mongols, Manchu etc. Also Manchuria alone has a lot of iron and raw resources that could would quite profitable for Russian companies, and that vast Mongolian steppe could be a very fertile agricultural land, the locals likely won’t like it but that’s not the Tsars problem.

Random aside; If the Americans are solidly on the side of the French, I’m not sure in this TL, then the Monroe Doctrine is dead in the water. British influence in South America is thus that the UK could ‘suggest’ the Brazilians take the Portuguese royals in return for Angola/Mozambique/Timor Leste and maybe Suriname and Guyana. Brazil gets a lot of territory and an colonial empire for practically nothing, Britain gets an ally in the New World and somewhere to sell a lot of old ships.
 
You’re right about the Russian puppets in China, though with a captive export market buying Russian goods and services, the Russian economy is gonna be quite a bit better than OTL. And also ‘China’ out populated Russia but now China’s just a geographical expression and there’s likely more Great Russians than there are Mongols, Manchu etc. Also Manchuria alone has a lot of iron and raw resources that could would quite profitable for Russian companies, and that vast Mongolian steppe could be a very fertile agricultural land, the locals likely won’t like it but that’s not the Tsars problem.
That's a fascinating idea. I might have buffed Russia more than intended with this.
Random aside; If the Americans are solidly on the side of the French, I’m not sure in this TL, then the Monroe Doctrine is dead in the water. British influence in South America is thus that the UK could ‘suggest’ the Brazilians take the Portuguese royals in return for Angola/Mozambique/Timor Leste and maybe Suriname and Guyana. Brazil gets a lot of territory and an colonial empire for practically nothing, Britain gets an ally in the New World and somewhere to sell a lot of old ships.
Brazil was already holding the Portuguese Court in exile during the war. And Brazil does get rich, but by selling lumber to the British for more ships, since most forests in Europe are in enemy territory.
 
1848: Second Peninsular War
Sorry for the long delay. I hit a bit of a funk and had to drag myself to finish this part. Reddit version higher res below. As always, I welcome and encourage all manner of criticism and feedback. That said, I'm going to deviate from strictly "realistic" and begin making some artistic decisions to keep this scenario interesting, such as the multi-sided Spanish Civil War, following proxy wars (a la the China teaser) and still maneuvering Napoleon III to the throne, because it's more fun than the usual WW1 50 years too early and the completely made up succession of Napoleon's direct progeny that I'm bored of seeing in other timelines.


This is the first part of the 1848 series, a year that is even more infamous than our own timeline.

BB Spain Done - Copy.png

The Spanish Civil War began when King Jose I Bonaparte died in 1844. Celebrations at the king’s death eventually snowballed into riots that just kept growing. By 1848 France had lost control of most of the kingdom. Yet the rebels are not much warmer towards each other, having conflicting views of the ideal Spain going forward. The north-east was the first to collapse, with various guerilla forces eventually taking cities, the rebels fighting under the banner of more regional autonomy and a return to absolutism and the church and the expulsion of the French-tainted liberal ideals. To the west, Republicans in favor of centralized liberal rule but without the Bonaparte tyranny wrested control of Madrid and the northern coast. The British, seizing the opportunity provided by the revolts, have used Gibraltar and the occupied Balearic Islands as a launch point for the Bourbon loyalist forces (majority mercenaries bankrolled by British coin).

French forces were caught in the whiplash of how rapidly the situation deteriorated. They soon found themselves hugging the coast, with only Barcelona and Valencia remaining in their control, and only then because of the large garrisons and ease of connection to France. It is thought this event drove Napoleon II out in stress in the winter of 1847, leading to the Emperor to die of pneumonia without a son. Now his radical cousin, Charles-Luis, self-dubbed Napoleon III, must decide what to do. Either the Bonapartes must reclaim a kingdom which does not want them, or choose a faction to ally with.

The factions:

Bonapartist Spain: Controlling only Catalonia and Valencia, due to heavy French support.

The Regionalists: Reactionaries which see liberalism and centralization as French tainted. The Basque Country and Navarre, both of which suffered extensive occupation during the Peninsular war, are their center. The Regionalists fight for a return for the ancient rights and autonomy granted during the Castilian crown centuries prior, only recently and ruthlessly revoked by the Bonapartists. Both the Basque Country and Aragon, who both experienced extensive French occupation during the War, are the center of the revolt.

The Bourbons: The Carlist insurrection has encouraged the British to try their hand. They have supported the King’s return to Spain, sending troops and money, and the entire situation based out of British Gibraltar. They have made headway in the south, but halted their momentum in an uneasy and uncertain ceasefire with the other rebels.

The Liberals: Essentially everyone who isn’t a monarchist or reactionary. Liberals, Progressives, Moderates, and everyone else who feels Spain should be a liberal country WITHOUT an absolutist ruler, are part of this coalitional faction. Their supporters are in the liberal cities and towns on the central plateau.
 
Hey y'all. I'm alive. Life's given me a respite and my interest in the subject's returned somewhat. I'm doing another soft reboot and I'd like some advice.

I figured after the failed 6th coalition France would take more land from Prussia and Austria, and my idea is that France tries to cut off Prussia and Austria from Russia to prevent easy coordination. To accomplish this, I have two ideas:

Before:
Before.png


Idea 1: France buffs Poland/Duchy of Warsaw as much as a strong ally in the East. Austrian Moldova is either given to Poland or the Ottomans.
Big Poland.png


Idea 2: France gives Poland less land and creates other client states, specifically the Duchies of East Prussia and Galicia
Several Client Staes.png


Along with this, I'm unsure whether the border of Poland/East Prussia should be the Vistula or the historic Polish border with the HRE (shown in grey). What do you think would be more plausible?
 
My bet is a mix of the two proposals: the Duchy of Warsaw annexing Austrian Galicia entirely, and East Prussia Becoming a French puppet, although this seems very unlikely due to East Prussia being a core region of Prussia, maybe cutting a Polish Corridor such as in 1919 would be the most possible option: it does not eliminate all connections between Prussia and Russia, but it prevents full connection between them.
 
Hey y'all. I'm alive. Life's given me a respite and my interest in the subject's returned somewhat. I'm doing another soft reboot and I'd like some advice.

I figured after the failed 6th coalition France would take more land from Prussia and Austria, and my idea is that France tries to cut off Prussia and Austria from Russia to prevent easy coordination. To accomplish this, I have two ideas:

Before:
View attachment 747858

Idea 1: France buffs Poland/Duchy of Warsaw as much as a strong ally in the East. Austrian Moldova is either given to Poland or the Ottomans.
View attachment 747860

Idea 2: France gives Poland less land and creates other client states, specifically the Duchies of East Prussia and Galicia
View attachment 747861

Along with this, I'm unsure whether the border of Poland/East Prussia should be the Vistula or the historic Polish border with the HRE (shown in grey). What do you think would be more plausible?
I'd go with Idea 1, but giving Poland the Corridor rather than East Prussia. So something like this:
1654546060159.png
 
My bet is a mix of the two proposals: the Duchy of Warsaw annexing Austrian Galicia entirely, and East Prussia Becoming a French puppet, although this seems very unlikely due to East Prussia being a core region of Prussia, maybe cutting a Polish Corridor such as in 1919 would be the most possible option: it does not eliminate all connections between Prussia and Russia, but it prevents full connection between them.

I'd go with Idea 1, but giving Poland the Corridor rather than East Prussia. So something like this:
View attachment 747942

My one worry about the Corridor is that it looks a lot like post WW1 borders. It wouldn't be immersion breaking to have it so similar?
 
East Prussia Becoming a French puppet, although this seems very unlikely due to East Prussia being a core region of Prussia, maybe cutting a Polish Corridor such as in 1919 would be the most possible option: it does not eliminate all connections between Prussia and Russia, but it prevents full connection between them.
Well, there were plans on total elimination of Prussia as a state, so give more of it, including even its "core regions" to soeone else/made them into puppet state isn´t so far fetched (bonus point if there still would be Prussian state... who does not include actual Prussia )
 
So, taking feedback into account, how does this refreshed map look for Eastern Europe in 1836, 10 years after the end of the 6th coalition? The change from the old lore is that France wins the 6th coalition, not just stalemates, and decides to bolster French Clients in the east at the expense of Prussia and Austria. What do you think?

Eastern Europe.PNG
 
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