Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran: An Iran war TL

ThePest179

Banned
That or a Coffee Party springs up.

I'm expecting a stronger Green Party myself.

Anyway yeah, Rumsfeldia might look like a vacation spot by the time this TL wraps up.

You have it completely backwards; I speak no hyperbole when I say that the only way for this TL to be more dystopic than Rumsfeldia is to have an all out Third World War with nuclear weapons used liberally. I'm pretty sure that the author doesn't have that in mind.
 
You have it completely backwards; I speak no hyperbole when I say that the only way for this TL to be more dystopic than Rumsfeldia is to have an all out Third World War with nuclear weapons used liberally. I'm pretty sure that the author doesn't have that in mind.

Wouldn't a second civil war be already worse?
 

ThePest179

Banned
How come Russia and China aren't batting an eye? Aren't they sort of in a rivalry with the US?

The former isn't looking to reignite the Cold War (it didn't take until mid to late 2013 for relations to break down again IOTL) and China is a big business partner with the US.
 
Regarding the practicalities of the draft, we would be well advised to keep the Hollywood adage in mind:

"You can have fast, cheap and good. But only two out of three."

The modern US military, the military that is being deployed here is not the same military that we used in WWII, Korea or even Vietnam.

Those wars, in part, were based on mass movements of general infantry, relatively lightly armed with rifles and even more lightly armored, through the use of mechanized transport, supported by mid-grade weaponry and heavy weapons systems.

Things have evolved quite a bit. The move to a smaller volunteer army resulted in a dramatic escalation of investment and training in soldiers and soldier support systems.

Your current infantry soldier, in the most basic terms, is much more expensive than the WWII GI - simply because, 1) Expensive body armour; 2) More expensive weapons; 3) More equipment.

But it doesn't stop there. Infantry doesn't exist in a vacuum. Rather, it exists as a component of a very complex and expensive weapons system, which is hyper-reliant on technology, which means incredibly expensive equipment, highly trained operators and maintenance staff.

That can't be waved into existence. So it's more than simply expanding numbers through a draft. You need massive procurement orders and extreme levels of training to increased the size of the military to have the numbers to function with expected effectiveness.
 
That or a Coffee Party springs up.

:)

of alllllllllll the things in this TL.................................

"Avigdor Lieberman becomes new Israeli PM"

...........this made me literally scream "OH MY GOD!" out loud at my desk.

Anyway yeah, Rumsfeldia might look like a vacation spot by the time this TL wraps up.

IMHO the politics of this TL are kinda wonky. The Left - from MSNBC hosts to NetRoots blogs - would be absolutely APOPLETIC about Cheney starting a war with Iran. Not months or a year later. Immediately. It'd be like how the college campuses exploded when the secret bombing of Cambodia became public. The mood would be existential horror and deep rage at what is (clearly!) an unstoppable bloodthirsty NeoCon war machine. Especially since they'd see the dreaded -DRAFT- coming. (on election night 04, we were posting "How to speak Korean" books on AllHipHop because invading North Korea was next, right? most young lefties cynically expected another war, our parents just assumed they wouldn't be that stupid.....) Not nearly enough was made of this imo. IOTL and ITTL Obama made it a race in the first place because he was able to make lemonade with Hillary's stubbornly hawkish triangulation posturing vis-a-vie the Iraq AUMF vote. The 08 Primary Race was never about actual policy differences (there really weren't any) so much as different personalities. So. Now we have a real, deep, honest-to-god policy difference. And on THAT issue....Hillary has staked out the position that is anathema to her party's base? Yeah that should be a problem. Quite a big one. Frankly its the sort of drastic misstep that COULD persuade super-delegates to buck the election results and support Obama. Probably wouldn't but it theoretically could. For Hillary to secure the nomination by sucking up to a Cheney pet war of aggression......we are talking ULTIMATE betrayal, a confirmation of the Left's worst fears about her. I don't think "The Supreme Court, stupid!" is gonna be enough quell the rabble in that scenario. We're talking open rebellion in the Democratic Party, convention drama, ugly anti-war heckling moments at campaign rallys, maybea crash write-in 3rd party campaign by Kucinich. Obama - given his preternatural ability to lay back in the cut and let his opponents hang themselves - would see where this is going and do the bare minimum when endorsing her. Just enough to avoid any Dolchstoßlegende resentment within the party.

You were really much too generous with the election results. She'd get crushed as she goes into Election Day with a base that is not just deeply disillusioned, but outright hostile in many cases. Also, her ground game and grassroots infrastructure was nothing like the operation Obama built, so that's another force multiplier working against her.

I see your points, but disagree somewhat:
In this TL, the left is indeed apoplectic about Cheney starting another war with Iran in ATL Summer 2008. That's why there's quite a view Vietnam-style protests at that time. Not as bad as what happens post-draft, but a few. As for the less-radical left in the media, I suppose I could have said more, but some of the reason for their muted reaction is due to the attacks on oil shipping and Israel. Not as muted as the run-up to Iraq, but public opinion that is mildly in favor of war in ATL Spring '08 will steer left-wing media outlets away from being too critical of the Cheney administration.

As far Hillary's position on Iran being opposite the base, yes that is true. But people have short memories and will have more reason for anger against Iran than was the case for Iraq, even amongst the moderate left. I too considered putting Kucinich in the mix, but decided against it as it would be very difficult for him to rejoin the election in at such a late stage. As for the results of the Presidential election, I think we are in agreement. In such a scenario, Clinton would lose a lot of the Democratic base, who are now increasingly disillusioned and radicalized.
 
Regarding the practicalities of the draft, we would be well advised to keep the Hollywood adage in mind:

"You can have fast, cheap and good. But only two out of three."

The modern US military, the military that is being deployed here is not the same military that we used in WWII, Korea or even Vietnam.

Those wars, in part, were based on mass movements of general infantry, relatively lightly armed with rifles and even more lightly armored, through the use of mechanized transport, supported by mid-grade weaponry and heavy weapons systems.

Things have evolved quite a bit. The move to a smaller volunteer army resulted in a dramatic escalation of investment and training in soldiers and soldier support systems.

Your current infantry soldier, in the most basic terms, is much more expensive than the WWII GI - simply because, 1) Expensive body armour; 2) More expensive weapons; 3) More equipment.

But it doesn't stop there. Infantry doesn't exist in a vacuum. Rather, it exists as a component of a very complex and expensive weapons system, which is hyper-reliant on technology, which means incredibly expensive equipment, highly trained operators and maintenance staff.

That can't be waved into existence. So it's more than simply expanding numbers through a draft. You need massive procurement orders and extreme levels of training to increased the size of the military to have the numbers to function with expected effectiveness.

No disagreements there, but then I'd argue that this war has more in common with Vietnam (or even World War II) than Iraq or Afghanistan. Iraq and Afghanistan are "capital-intensive" wars against opponents that are at a strong disadvantage in terms of training and technology. There simply weren't any soldiers to fight in those wars (in Afghanistan, you have the occasional guerrilla attack and in Iraq the Iraqi military mostly surrendered before they could engage with American forces). The Iran War is different in that the US is fighting against a country that has a decent fighting force and weaponry (nowhere near what the US has at its disposal, but much more than what Iraq and Afghanistan had). You would need warm bodies on the ground to match their soldiers. A lot of them. So you'd have a cheap and fast military in this TL. Not ideal of course, but an all-volunteer force simply wouldn't have the numbers and time/budget constraints would mean that draftees would not be as well-trained as the present-day American soldier.
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Sorry if this seems a bit short, but I wanted to get this out by this week.
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Part 9

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January 2, 2010:

Secretary of State Bolton and Iraqi Prime Minister to meet in Jordan

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January 4, 2010:

Al-Maliki pledges support to US

The Prime Minister of Iraq, Nouri Al-Maliki has said that his country is willing to join the fight in Iran. This is a surprising reversal of his previous skepticism of the Iran War. His own country fought Iran during the Iran-Iraq war and since then the two countries have been bitter rivals. Al-Maliki said that after his recent conversation with Secretary of State John Bolton, he would be happy to provide any assistance that the US needs in support of a full ground invasion of Iran from Iraq.

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January 12, 2010

US forces regaining control in Iraq

After boosting troop strength in the southern part of Iraq, the Sadr Movement appears to be on the defensive. The Sadr movement has reportedly retreated from the outskirts of Baghdad.

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January 21, 2010

Iranian assault on Hamadan causes American forces to retreat

Light resistance in the city of Hamadan faced by Americans late last year has been replaced by a much stronger force of Iranians. Nearly 100,000 Iranian soldiers have descended upon the city, which is under loose American control. Several dozen American soldiers were killed in battle.

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January 28, 2010:

“Keep the Peace” rally draws 50,000 in Lubbock, Texas

The “Keep the Peace” movement is gaining steam amongst Americans. They blame the nation’s problems on non-whites and non-Christians, and want to end the war in Iran by dropping nuclear bombs on Iranian cities. Their message, once disregarded as fringe lunacy, has become increasingly appealing to many Americans, who are anxiously looking for a source of hope in these challenging times. The group claims that they are not Republicans, who they view as “cowards” for failing to do “what’s necessary to end the Depression and win in Iran”. The movement seems to be much divided on who is the cause of the problems America faces. One speaker said that “McCain needs to grow some balls and deal with the Muslim problem in America”, suggesting they should all be deported back home, along with the Blacks and Mexicans. Another speaker pointed his finger at “the Jews” for causing the Wall Street crash and for Israel’s starting the war in Iran. Yet another speaker blamed the “atheists and intellectuals” for their “traitorous lack of support for our military.”

Who attends these rallies? Most of the people in the crowd were middle-aged White people. We spoke with several of them. The common thread was that they were unemployed, formerly middle-class people who desperately wanted someone to return things to normal. One member of the crowd said that they lost a son in Iran.

The FBI reports that since the start of 2009, there has been a rise in left-wing and right-wing radical activity in the US. It is believed that these groups formed shortly after the beginning of the Iran War and the Depression. Some 50 or so groups are believed to be involved in violent extremist activity. Many of the leaders of these groups have been detained under legislation passed to combat violent extremism and domestic terrorism.

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February 7, 2010:

Anti-war Demonstration in Memphis, TN draws 200,000


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March 3, 2010:

Russian arms discovered in Iran

American soldiers found a cache of Russian-made weapons after raiding a base in northwestern Iran. The stockpile of anti-aircraft missiles appear to have been made in Russia in the last 5 years. The discovery comes two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin called the war in Iran an “illegal fascist imperialist war.” [1] It is unclear whether the weapons were smuggled into Iran from Russia, or were obtained from Russian covert ops. Russia’s support for Iran has troubled some US officials, who fear a possible confrontation between the US and Russia.

[1] Pot calling the kettle black.

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March 21, 2010:

American troop strength reaches 300,000

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March 23, 2010:

American convoy comes under fire near Hamadan, 21 soldiers reported dead

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April 2, 2010:

Deadliest week for American soldiers since Vietnam

The Pentagon reported that US casualties were 306 dead, 2,304 wounded for the week of March 21-27, 2010

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April 5, 2010:

US to relocate Israeli embassy to Jerusalem [1]

Next month, the United States will move its Israeli embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. This change of address will change the Jerusalem consulate into an embassy. The move comes after Vice President Huckabee said that the location of the embassy should reflect the nation's true capital. He suggested that “It's impractical and irrational to have two governments overseeing the same real estate, and with Hamas terrorists, it complicates it even more.” In 1980, most countries shifted moved their embassies from Jerusalem after the perceived threat of another oil embargo by Arab nations.

[1] OTL, Huckabee advocated for this, so this is in character for him

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April 28, 2010:

Oil hits $90 a barrel after Iranian missile destroys refinery near Dubai

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May 24, 2010:

Two years after invasion:
360,000 American soldiers in Iran
13,974 American dead
Estimated 190,000 Iranian dead (130,000 military, 60,000 civilian)

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May 25, 2010:

Confrontation between anti-war and pro-war protestors leaves 9 dead

They organized a protest on the second anniversary of the start of the war in Birmingham, Alabama. The protest turned deadly when members of the right-wing, pro-war “Keep the Peace” movement fought with the left-wing, anti-war group “End the Draft Now.” The “Keep America Safe” members confronted the anti-war protestors, shouting that all of the ‘traitors’ need to leave. After a brief scuffle, several Keep America Safe activists fired into the crowd, killing nine before police interceded and arrested them.

President McCain said he was horrified by the incident and emphasized that the “needless violence” needs to stop. He denounced the actions of the members of “Keep America Safe” as “unpatriotic” and “a violation of Americans’ right to peaceful dissent.”

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June 13, 2010:

American troop strength in Iran reaches 400,000

[1] A reasonable estimate, in my opinion. I’m basing it off the fact that there were usually about 130,000 American soldiers in Iraq for most of the war. Iran’s population is three times bigger, so a force of 400K is about right. By my reckoning it would take about a year after the start of the draft to reach that number.

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June 15, 2010:

Iranian attack on American barracks near Qom kills 31

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June 27, 2010:

Kucinich to McCain: End the bloodbath, or face impeachment

Ohio Representative Dennis Kucinich spoke to a crowd of 30,000 at an anti-war rally in Akron, Ohio. He spoke about how the deaths of thousands of Americans are due to the administration’s “illegal and immoral war” in Iran. He claimed that McCain and Huckabee have violated several US and international laws. He accused them of starting a war against Iran without approval of the United Nations, misinformed the American people about the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program, and starting a draft under the pretense of ‘national service’. Kucinich said his fellow Democrats share his beliefs, but lack the courage to show “true opposition” to the McCain administration. He continued by saying that Democrats in Congress need to “rediscover their backbone” and support his articles of Impeachment against the President and Vice President. Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi said that she had ‘no comment’ on Kucinich’s bill during question period earlier today.

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July 3, 2010:

Shock and awe in Tehran

Late last night, a bombing campaign of a magnitude not seen since World War II was carried out against the Iranian capital. Several dozen American bombers reportedly took off from a makeshift airbase some 50 miles southwest of Tehran. Their mission was to destroy important government targets in and around Tehran. After the first bomb fell, air raid sirens sounded, and Tehran residents were asked to seek shelter immediately. The first bombs were dropped on buildings housing the Iranian Ministry of Defense. Several other nearby government buildings were destroyed by bombs a short time later.

Vice President Huckabee remarked that the air display was “just like fireworks on the Fourth of July” and called the bombs “a sign of the pending liberation of the Iranian people.” These sentiments were echoed by Secretary of Defense Randy Scheunemann, who said that the “The Iranian officials are becoming confused. They’re losing their grip on their country.” [1]

[1] Very similar to what Donald Rumsfeld said in 2003.

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July 6, 2010

American bomb hits makeshift children’s hospital, 90 children reported dead [1]

Iranian officials claimed today that 94 children were killed after an American bomb landed on a treatment center for wounded children. The hospital was located next to a weapons facility in the suburbs of Tehran. One administration official claimed that the Iranian government intentionally located the hospital near the weapons facility so as to ‘maximize civilian casualties to embarrass the United States’.

[1] Not too farfetched considering what happened recently in Afghanistan.

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July 18, 2010

American forces surround Tehran

American forces have encircled the city of Tehran. The Ayatollah Khamenei addressed Iranians on state television, urging the residents of the city not to give up to the “agents of evil”, claiming that they will face the “wrath of Allah” if they surrender. The leader of Iran called upon the inhabitants of Tehran to pray that “divine intervention will cause the Americans to be turned back from the city and destroyed”. As a sign of solidarity with the common people, Khamenei said that he will remain in Tehran and is willing to be “martyred for Iran.”

Meanwhile, President Ahmedinejad has apparently disappeared from the city and has not been seen in public in three weeks. His location is unknown, but many suspect he is either hiding in a reinforced bunker beneath the city or may have left the city prior to the approach of American forces. Finding him is of utmost importance to Americans, as he may form a new government elsewhere in Iran.

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July 29, 2010:

Iranian General: ‘We vow to fight until the last man’

General Qasem Soleimani, leader of Iran's Quds force, said that the Iranian military will not give up despite the impending American invasion of Tehran.But this is not merely tough talk. Americans are finding that the Iranian forces will not give up as easily as their Iraqi cousins. So far, the US has captured only 11,000 Iranians as POWs. Most were injured and unconscious at the time of their capture. Several hundred Iranian soldiers are reported to have committed suicide rather than be captured by American forces.

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August 2, 2010

Pentagon reports July 25-31 deadliest week of the war

Casualty totals reported to be 483 dead, 3,691 wounded

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August 4, 2010:
Victory over Tehran

Today, the US has successfully toppled the regime in power in Iran for 30 years. The members of the legislative assembly of Iran (known as the Majlis) are reported to be captured, in hiding, or dead. The Ayatollah Khamenei has been placed under house arrest after he was caught trying to make a last-minute escape from his residence in Jamaran (a suburb of Tehran) disguised under a birqa.

Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is still nowhere to be found, as he escaped before US troops encircled the city. President McCain was reportedly very glad to hear the news, and said that the “skeptics and naysayers have been proven wrong” about the ability of the US to capture Tehran. But, McCain cautioned that the war is “not over” and that we must finish the job before “leaving the nation in the capable hands of the American people”.

Antiwar groups have claimed that the Battle of Tehran resulted in the deaths of more than 10,000 Iranian civilians, mostly due to crossfire and bombing. Democratic critics of the administration say that celebration is premature, considering that more than 80% of the country is still out of US control. The vast countryside in the middle and eastern parts of the country are reported to be safe havens for the Revolutionary Guard, who maintain power over these areas.

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Part 10

August 5, 2010:

President McCain: First taste of freedom in Iran

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August 12, 2010:

Mir Hossein Mousavi declared Interim President of Iran [1]

[1] OTL, he was the leader of the Green Movement in Iran in 2009

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August 29, 2010:

Iranian refugees flood neighboring nations

An estimated 2 million Iranians have been displaced by the war. Camps are being set up in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to accommodate them, but many more are arriving every day.

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September 4, 2010:

Suicide bomber attacks American embassy in Jerusalem, 5 dead

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September 16, 2010:

US troops face difficult occupation

Occupying Tehran is no easy task. The city and its suburbs hold 8 million people, the size of Chicago’s metro population. Currently, 50,000 soldiers are charged with the task of securing the city. The people who live in the city are hostile to America’s presence.

The US currently occupies about 80% of Iran’s land area, in two main areas: a thin strip of land along the Persian Gulf coast and a wedge roughly 400 miles long and ten miles wide that stretches from Baghdad to Tehran.

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September 23, 2010:

Ahmedinejad declares government in exile in Mashhad

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October 4, 2010:

8,000 square miles of disputed territory in Khuzestan ceded to Iraq [1]

New province to be called "Al-Ahwaz"

[1] OTL, the province is home to Arab separatists. Perhaps a reward for Al- Maliki's support?

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October 21, 2010:

PM Lieberman launches offensive against Hezbollah

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November 2, 2010
Democrats big winners in landslide midterm elections

The Democrats now have 60 seats in the Senate, and 284 seats in the House [1]. This majority in both houses of Congress strengthens their opposition against the McCain administration. The Democrats claim that their victory is the result of “failed leadership in Iran and the economy.”

[1] Note that these numbers are basically the same as OTL 2008.

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November 23, 2010:

Mutiny reported amongst draftees in Iran and Iraq

With the commencement of universal national service in 2009, morale among the American military is at an all-time low. A new report suggests that the re-institution of the draft has led to serious incidents of mutiny and fragging amongst American soldiers in Iraq and Iran. Some draftees have gone AWOL, wandering off into the desert, never to return. Other draftees are reported to be committing acts of sabotage against American military equipment. Yet others have reportedly converted to Islam as a gesture of protest against the US. Most seriously, some draftees have ganged up and abandoned their commanding officers in the Iranian desert.

The McCain administration downplayed the report, saying that the problem of low draftee morale has been overblown and that these incidents are “rare exceptions to the rule of exceptionally good conduct”. They claim that the national service program has instilled “a newfound sense of national pride amongst the vast majority of American youth.”

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December 18, 2010:
Slate.com
Not too big to fail: What would have happened if we bailed out the banks sooner?

Two years after the start of the Second Great Depression, many have begun to wonder what would have happened if we bailed out the banks in 2008 before they failed. At the time, the first two bailout bills were defeated by strong opposition from both Republicans and Democrats. Some, like many on the right, wanted to stop “big government” from getting involved with the banks and preferred a free-market solution. Others, particularly on the left, said that we ought to punish the bankers who started the mess in the first place. As a result, the third bailout bill failed to rescue the big banks in time, leading to financial collapse.

But since 2008, only a handful of Wall Street executives have been charged with financial crimes. Most were only low-level managers. Critics claim that they were merely scapegoats for higher-ranking executives [1]. Meanwhile, many former Wall Street executives have found a safe haven in places like the Cayman Islands, out of reach from American authorities.

As the Dow closed below 2,000 yesterday, many have questioned whether the banks ought to have been bailed out rather than left to fail. The consequences, it seems, have fallen on regular Americans rather than the bankers who caused the Depression. Instead of wanting justice, many Americans say that they simply want law and order.

Many are beginning to wonder: If the bailouts had been passed in time, what would the world would be like? No one knows. But perhaps, as it was in 2007, unemployment would still be below 10%. Hunger may still be only a serious problem in poor, war-torn nations. Millions of people may have remained in their homes instead of living on the street. Our stock portfolios, pensions, and retirement savings may have remained largely intact. We may still be using credit cards for most of our purchases, rather than cash. We could still be buying American cars. While critics say that the bankers would have been rewarded for their misdeeds, bailouts may have preserved the status quo before the Depression hit. And to many, the status quo has never looked better [2].

[1] Pretty much the same as OTL.
[2] As much as I’d like to think that people would start “questioning the system”, but the cynic in me says that most people in such a situation would yearn for the good old days when they had jobs and a roof over their head. Security usually trumps social justice.
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2010 is a bloodbath for the Republicans. 2012 should be interesting especially if the economy is still a disaster and Iran is far worse off...
 

ThePest179

Banned
January 28, 2010:

“Keep the Peace” rally draws 50,000 in Lubbock, Texas

The “Keep the Peace” movement is gaining steam amongst Americans. They blame the nation’s problems on non-whites and non-Christians, and want to end the war in Iran by dropping nuclear bombs on Iranian cities. Their message, once disregarded as fringe lunacy, has become increasingly appealing to many Americans, who are anxiously looking for a source of hope in these challenging times. The group claims that they are not Republicans, who they view as “cowards” for failing to do “what’s necessary to end the Depression and win in Iran”. The movement seems to be much divided on who is the cause of the problems America faces. One speaker said that “McCain needs to grow some balls and deal with the Muslim problem in America”, suggesting they should all be deported back home, along with the Blacks and Mexicans. Another speaker pointed his finger at “the Jews” for causing the Wall Street crash and for Israel’s starting the war in Iran. Yet another speaker blamed the “atheists and intellectuals” for their “traitorous lack of support for our military.”

Looks like 4chan is coming out in force. :p

More seriously, this is alarming as hell. Neo-Nazis and the far-right in general are probably having a field day recruiting more people to their cause, to say nothing of the far-left.

June 27, 2010:

Kucinich to McCain: End the bloodbath, or face impeachment

That reminds me, how is Bernie Sanders doing ITTL? I'd imagine he's looking to run in 2012 with things so favorable to the left thanks to the Iran War and Second Great Depression.

November 2, 2010
Democrats big winners in landslide midterm elections

The Democrats now have 60 seats in the Senate, and 284 seats in the House [1]. This majority in both houses of Congress strengthens their opposition against the McCain administration. The Democrats claim that their victory is the result of “failed leadership in Iran and the economy.”

[1] Note that these numbers are basically the same as OTL 2008.

IMO the Democrats would win more seats than IOTL 2008 because of the economy and the war.

As much as I’d like to think that people would start “questioning the system”, but the cynic in me says that most people in such a situation would yearn for the good old days when they had jobs and a roof over their head. Security usually trumps social justice.

Speaking of which, how bad is crime in the US ITTL?

And generally, I'd like to add that civilian and American casualties still seem somewhat low, and that third parties might gain some traction ITTL due to disillusionment with both the Democrats and Republicans, but other than that I don't have any issues. Keep up the good work. :)
 
Woot! Woot! An update! Damn! Those poor bloody draftees shouldn't be fighting this damn war.

The good news is that millennials, who are already pretty left leaning, will be much more so, what with being screwed twice by their elders. Economically and with a horrible war.
 
Will Pelosi be Speaker, or will the new, more radical Democrats elect someone who will fight, like Kucinich?
If Kucinich gets impeachment, will he go after McCain on Iran, or Iran and Iraq? If he goes after him on Iraq, does he risk bringing down some Democrats?
And with the conflict in Iran, will this mean Al-Quaida might manage to sneak in and target both sides?
 
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