In OTL in August 1917 because of Kornilov affair Kerensky released Petrograd Bolsheviks armed them and allow to create some troops. Affair lead to crush rest of Kerensky respect in army. Mentioned red troops were used few months later to gain control over Petrograd during October Revolution. Seize of Petrograd allowed Bolsheviks to become legal authority of Russia, gain massive war supplies, Petrograd military factories and with Moscow main transport hubs.
But what if…
Lawr Kornilov died in 1916 Summer during his escape from Austrian captivity, e.g. lone bullet during escaping trough frontline. Until August 1917 it will probably won’t change ‘gereat history’ (only case of Brusílov successor, I don’t have candidats) but lack of Kornilov Affair should change revolution events.
IMO it should look that.
Bolsheviks will start revolution after announcement of Russian Constituent Assembly election results (which should be worse for them than that OTL), lack of red guards in Petrograd and some support in military circles should help Kierensky in controll situation in Petrograd, probably Moscow will gain by revolutionists. Lenin, Trocky and rest of RSDLP (b) leaders will escape to Moscow. In that situation we have classic civil war with legal authority and rebels. That kind of antibolsheviks have many advantages angainst OTL White Russia:
- Localisation which helped in support from Entente and hinder Red troops movemants
- State administration
- Program of changes, beter for russian peasantry and workers than Whites reactionary
- Support in ppl showed in Constituent Assembly elections (great vistory of SR Party).
In international situation probably Germany will recognize Lenin govermant and signed some kind of treaty but worse for them than OTL Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (less troops moved on west frontline because of Kirensky Russia still in war). Ukrainian People's Republic probably will sign Treaty of Brest-Litovsk as OTL.
Feel free to discuss.
But what if…
Lawr Kornilov died in 1916 Summer during his escape from Austrian captivity, e.g. lone bullet during escaping trough frontline. Until August 1917 it will probably won’t change ‘gereat history’ (only case of Brusílov successor, I don’t have candidats) but lack of Kornilov Affair should change revolution events.
IMO it should look that.
Bolsheviks will start revolution after announcement of Russian Constituent Assembly election results (which should be worse for them than that OTL), lack of red guards in Petrograd and some support in military circles should help Kierensky in controll situation in Petrograd, probably Moscow will gain by revolutionists. Lenin, Trocky and rest of RSDLP (b) leaders will escape to Moscow. In that situation we have classic civil war with legal authority and rebels. That kind of antibolsheviks have many advantages angainst OTL White Russia:
- Localisation which helped in support from Entente and hinder Red troops movemants
- State administration
- Program of changes, beter for russian peasantry and workers than Whites reactionary
- Support in ppl showed in Constituent Assembly elections (great vistory of SR Party).
In international situation probably Germany will recognize Lenin govermant and signed some kind of treaty but worse for them than OTL Treaty of Brest-Litovsk (less troops moved on west frontline because of Kirensky Russia still in war). Ukrainian People's Republic probably will sign Treaty of Brest-Litovsk as OTL.
Feel free to discuss.