Bigger Interbellum Austria

[shillinger]

I came across a map of the preposed borders of Austria after the dissolution of Austria-Hungary. Apparently South Tyrol, the Sudetenland, Sopron, a strip of Hungarian territory near Slovakia and the northern chunk of Lower Styria were territories that the Austrians believed should be part of Austria.

Since South Tyrol and the Sudetenland are out of the question, what are the chances of Austria gaining at the expense of Hungary and Slovenia?

 

[Blair152]

Came across a map of the preposed borders of Austria after the dissolution of Austria-Hungary. Apparently South Tyrol, the Sudetenland, Sopron, a strip of Hungarian territory near Slovakia and the northern chunk of Lower Styria were territories that the Austrians believed should be part of Austria.

Since South Tyrol and the Sudetenland are out of the question, what are the chances of Austria gaining at the expense of Hungary and Slovenia?

That depends. I never heard of Styria or Sporon, for that matter. The South
Tyrol, and the Sudetenland, I have. The South Tyrol's part of Italy, and the
Sudetenland's part of Czechoslovakia, and now, I think, the Czech Republic.
Austria, financially, at least before the Depression, was in a stronger position. She'd paid off all her debts to the Allies by 1928. What's the POD
here?

 

[shillinger]

I never heard of Styria or Sporon, for that matter.

Google them.

The South Tyrol, and the Sudetenland, I have. The South Tyrol's part of Italy, and the Sudetenland's part of Czechoslovakia, and now, I think, the Czech Republic.

Thank you, Captain Obvious.

Austria, financially, at least before the Depression, was in a stronger position. She'd paid off all her debts to the Allies by 1928. What's the POD here?

This isnt a preposed scenario, its a plausability check.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I came across a map of the preposed borders of Austria after the dissolution of Austria-Hungary. Apparently South Tyrol, the Sudetenland, Sopron, a strip of Hungarian territory near Slovakia and the northern chunk of Lower Styria were territories that the Austrians believed should be part of Austria.

Since South Tyrol and the Sudetenland are out of the question, what are the chances of Austria gaining at the expense of Hungary and Slovenia?

Sopron/Pressburg is really the only option that would be politically possible. The Austrians and Hungarians dog-piled voters into the city to get it to turn out for them. Both were not particularly popular among the Allied nations, so it was up for them to work it out and would not be interfered with the way many other votes were by the Allies. Pressburg in fact should have gone Austrian. But it really doesn't add all that much to Austria, just another large city. However, it would hurt Hungary, as urban areas were at a premium in the largely rural nation. Hence the effort made to hold on to it.

The additional part of Styria is vaguely possible with Italian or British support, but it is unlikely they would get help here, as Serbia was intent to expand as far north as possible and the Slovenians were not especially pro-Austria. But if the other choice was joining Italy, they would have loved to be part of Austria instead. I guess it is vaguely plausible if the Austrians fought for it, as there was already border skirmishes going on. If they won and the Allies did nothing, then it could happen. But with the "punish Austria" mentality at the time, I doubt it would happen.

 

[machine3589]

Since South Tyrol and the Sudetenland are out of the question, what are the chances of Austria gaining at the expense of Hungary and Slovenia?

I think the best chance is Sopron. Pressburg and the additional strip of Hungary wouldnt be implausbile, but its a stretch.

IIRC, the only argument the Austrians would have for parts of lower Styria are that the areas in question were German-speaking, but not necessarely ethnically German. There were also large German communities in the cities (ex. Maribor/Marburg), but by that criteria Zagreb, Varaždin and Karlovac would be Austrian cities as well...

 

[shillinger]

Here, I found the map in question.

 

[Dan1988]

Hmm, well if Südtirol could be divided so that only the Alto Adige (aka Bozen/Bolzano) is part of Austria, whilst the rest of Südtirol (i.e. Trento-Trient) remains part of Italy, as well as Sopron/Pressbürg (and maybe even Lichtenstein) and the areas bordering Carinthia, that could work. As for the rest - well, I'm not too sure.

 

[machine3589]

Here, I found the map in question.

That red near Villach is Treviso, right?

 

[Zimmerwald1915]

If you want Austria to get territory that OTL was assigned to Hungary, simply delay the negotiations that dealt with the Treaty of St Germain. IIRC, it was negotiated, presented, and signed before things really went to hell in Hungary. If you can delay it, and have Austria appear a bulwark of sanity on the Danube - heck, throw in some Austrian support of Romania - then the Allies might be inclined to give Austria its claims in Hungary. As for Slovenia, that's tougher.

 

[shillinger]

There were also large German communities in the cities (ex. Maribor/Marburg), but by that criteria Zagreb, Varaždin and Karlovac would be Austrian cities as well...

I think Maribor had a bigger precentage of German and German-speaking population then the mentioned cities. Plus it is much closer to enthic German territories.

That red near Villach is Treviso, right?

Yes.

 

[mailinutile2]

I think south tirol (or at least its norther part, bozen) would be a much more probable candidate for incorporation to austria than you think of.
If a plebiscite were to be done there the region would be SURELY austrian.
regarding realpolitik, italy was to be cheated anyway respect to the london pact, 1915: in OTL it was cheted regarding eastern adriatic (dalmatia and so on).
ITTL, it could be cheated on the Tirol border, instead, and have eastern adriatic isles as a compensation

 

[shillinger]

I think south tirol (or at least its norther part, bozen) would be a much more probable candidate for incorporation to austria than you think of. If a plebiscite were to be done there the region would be SURELY austrian.

Well of course the Tirol Austrians would vote to join their own country! IOTL they didnt get the chance...

Regarding realpolitik, Italy was to be cheated anyway respect to the london pact, 1915: in OTL it was cheted regarding eastern adriatic (dalmatia and so on). ITTL, it could be cheated on the Tirol border, instead, and have eastern adriatic isles as a compensation.

And what would be ample compensation for South Tyrol? Krk, Hvar, Rab? All of them?

 

[mailinutile2]

And what would be ample compensation for South Tyrol? Krk, Hvar, Rab? All of them?

Fiume, Pola, Dalmatia, maybe even the illyrian coast and a slice of Albania

 

[Dan1988]

I think south tirol (or at least its norther part, bozen) would be a much more probable candidate for incorporation to austria than you think of.
If a plebiscite were to be done there the region would be SURELY austrian.

Hmm, that's exactly what I was thinking with Bozen. Great minds think alike, eh?

 

[machine3589]

Fiume, Pola, Dalmatia, maybe even the illyrian coast and a slice of Albania

That much for measely Bozen, eh?

 

[shillinger]

Fiume, Pola, Dalmatia, maybe even the illyrian coast and a slice of Albania

Its a bit much in exchange for a bunch of mountains.

 

[mailinutile2]

Its a bit much in exchange for a bunch of mountains.

I did not mean all of them, but some of them.
What I meant is that there were many places eligible for a swap.

On the other hand, I do not think that a 1-to-1 swap would be feasible, neither in term of square kilometers nor in terms of thousands of population.
Consider that the exchange is quite critical for the italian ease-of mind, since it would mean pushing the boundary form the mountain to the valley.
Setting aside any technical analysis on how much effective actually is a mountain chain in hampering an invasion, the main point I think is the psycological effect of having it at the border, which often acts as a deterrent to it

 

[Janprimus]

I did not mean all of them, but some of them.
What I meant is that there were many places eligible for a swap.

On the other hand, I do not think that a 1-to-1 swap would be feasible, neither in term of square kilometers nor in terms of thousands of population.
Consider that the exchange is quite critical for the italian ease-of mind, since it would mean pushing the boundary form the mountain to the valley.
Setting aside any technical analysis on how much effective actually is a mountain chain in hampering an invasion, the main point I think is the psycological effect of having it at the border, which often acts as a deterrent to it

Not completely true, this 'only' applies for the area south of Bozen (Bolzano) in the valley of the Adige/Etsch river, although this could be seen as a weak spot. In other areas (further upstream the Etsch/Adige and the Isarcol/Eisack) it would mean a boundary on another mountain range.

 

[mailinutile2]

Not completely true, this 'only' applies for the area south of Bozen (Bolzano) in the valley of the Adige/Etsch river, although this could be seen as a weak spot. In other areas (further upstream the Etsch/Adige and the Isarcol/Eisack) it would mean a boundary on another mountain range.

I think you are right.
And also, it is at least from Clausewitz's time that analysts confute the idea of a mountain range as an "unpassable" boundary.
(non-analists confute it from Hannibal's times, or even from Leonida's times ).
The point, I think is mainly psicological, and has little to do with tactics, logistics or even with geography.
In the mind of the common man (plenty of commonly-minded men in the Army staff, alas), the mountain range begins more-or-less there, thus the italian border had to be pushed there for the Patria to be safe

 

[machine3589]

I did not mean all of them, but some of them.
What I meant is that there were many places eligible for a swap.

On the other hand, I do not think that a 1-to-1 swap would be feasible, neither in term of square kilometers nor in terms of thousands of population.
Consider that the exchange is quite critical for the italian ease-of mind, since it would mean pushing the boundary form the mountain to the valley.
Setting aside any technical analysis on how much effective actually is a mountain chain in hampering an invasion, the main point I think is the psycological effect of having it at the border, which often acts as a deterrent to it

So what would be enough for this "transaction" to go forward?