Best case for ancient Iberian kingdom?

[cincpac overboard]

Before the Second Punic War the eastern and southern coasts of what is now Spain were occupied by independent tribes referred to by Classical authors as the Iberians. Speakers of a non-Indo-European language (or languages), they had centuries of contact with Phoenician and Greek colonies. They also had wider contact with the Mediterranean world through their work as mercenaries, for which they won praise from authors such as Strabo and Thucydides. Evidence of social stratification and urbanization is stronger for the Iberians than it is for the other ethnic groups of of the Iberian Peninsula, save for the Tartessian remnant culture of the southwest region. Iron ore was abundant in the Ebro river basin and silver was produced in significant quantities in the region of what would become Carthago Nova. Native scripts are dated to at least the 4th century BCE, although most of what now survives consists of gravestone inscriptions.

Given these advantages, the Iberians seemed to have the best chance of all the peninsula's ethnic groups of becoming a significant Mediterranean power at least on a par with the great Gaulish confederations of the 1st century BCE, if not on the level of Rome or Carthage. But Carthaginian expansion into the peninsula during the later half of the 3rd century BCE, followed by Roman conquest during and following the Second Punic War put an end to the socio-political advancement and consolidation of the Iberians. How could this have been averted with a POD no earlier than 300 BCE? What material or cultural advances could they gain from their Greek and Phoenician that were not realized OTL? Which tribe has the best combination of wealth, social organization, and military potency to become a true kingdom capable of holding at bay Roman and Carthaginian expansion?

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

Carthaginian expansion is a non-issue if they manage to win the First Punic War, as the carthaginians were drawn to Iberia by their loss at the war. My bet would be the Contestani, as they can assimilate the greek city-states on the coast and use the already established greco-iberian culture (there is even a greco-iberian alphabet!) to their own benefits, with that i think that we could have an interesting mediterranean player if they manage to carve out an kingdom around the spanish mediterranean coast. The thing would be, like, there's a good of a chance that they end up opposing both Rome and Carthage, as the romans have their greek allies (but there's a little chance that they end up not being allies at all) in modern-day Catalonia and Carthage controls the main port cities in the Alboran Sea.

It would be though certainly interesting to see an organized iberian state fighting against Rome or Carthage, like, the iberians were the better infantry around (probanly their quality would be a shock to both the romans and carthaginians, as Carthage wouldn't do the OTL thing) and they would have the greek experience on navy matters, putting them at the same place that Rome and Carthage, but with them existing, western mediterranean diplomacy would be messy at the very least.

 

[cincpac overboard]

Carthaginian expansion is a non-issue if they manage to win the First Punic War, as the carthaginians were drawn to Iberia by their loss at the war. My bet would be the Contestani, as they can assimilate the greek city-states on the coast and use the already established greco-iberian culture (there is even a greco-iberian alphabet!) to their own benefits, with that i think that we could have an interesting mediterranean player if they manage to carve out an kingdom around the spanish mediterranean coast.

My own bet would be on the Ilergetes tribe of the Ebro valley. In OTL during the Second Punic War, Polybius in his Histories refers to the chieftains of this tribe as being the most powerful among the Iberians. The Roman historian Livy records them as being able to raise 20-30,000 infantry and 4000 cavalry in their uprising against Roman occupation after the war. In addition they were also organized enough to engage in pitched battle with the Romans rather than rely exclusively on guerrilla tactics. Their territory sits atop rich iron ore deposits which can feed their war machine.

If we assume Carthage wins the First Punic War, then Carthaginian disinterest in the Iberian peninsula, combined with Roman inability to project power there, means the Ilergetes will have time to finish expanding down the Ebro valley. As they incorporate the tribes of the lower Ebro the Ilergetes would absorb knowledge of the northeastern Iberian script and cement their position as the most powerful military in the Iberian ethnic realm. It also puts them right next to Emporion, the largest of the Greek colony cities on the Iberian peninsula. Even if the city isn't conquered outright Emporion is likely to become politically subordinate to the Ilergetes as the city's OTL alliance with Rome likely won't exist if Rome loses to Carthage. Control over Emporion puts the Ilergetes in much greater contact with the wider Mediterranean world, with trade wealth and Greek cultural influences streaming up the Ebro valley. The Ilergetan city of Iltirta (modern-day Lleida) likely becomes a true metropolis built along Greek lines and an important center of coin production, a role which it had OTL.

 

[Chris Triangle]

Carthaginian expansion is a non-issue if they manage to win the First Punic War, as the carthaginians were drawn to Iberia by their loss at the war. My bet would be the Contestani, as they can assimilate the greek city-states on the coast and use the already established greco-iberian culture (there is even a greco-iberian alphabet!) to their own benefits, with that i think that we could have an interesting mediterranean player if they manage to carve out an kingdom around the spanish mediterranean coast. The thing would be, like, there's a good of a chance that they end up opposing both Rome and Carthage, as the romans have their greek allies (but there's a little chance that they end up not being allies at all) in modern-day Catalonia and Carthage controls the main port cities in the Alboran Sea.

It would be though certainly interesting to see an organized iberian state fighting against Rome or Carthage, like, the iberians were the better infantry around (probanly their quality would be a shock to both the romans and carthaginians, as Carthage wouldn't do the OTL thing) and they would have the greek experience on navy matters, putting them at the same place that Rome and Carthage, but with them existing, western mediterranean diplomacy would be messy at the very least.

I guess they'd just sort of stick to the Southern coast. I don't really get the Carthiginians. On the one hand, they were sort of like the Greeks with their trading colonies rather than aggressively expanding the way Rome did. On the other hand, they would do straight empire building from time to time. I always figured they wanted to keep conquests to the minimum needed to secure their interests. Compared to the Romans, they seem to have been OK neighbors but yet they were in these relentless wars over Sicily.

So if the Iberian tribes start forming states, I think you'd basically see what happened with Sicily happen in Spain: the local powers make a move on them. If they did that, they would probably trigger a pretty serious response and honestly, the Carthaginians could probably win but they wouldn't be able to just make the whole of Iberia a province like Rome would do (and the Romans had trouble subduing it with far more resources). Any victory is temporary and sooner or later there would surely be an opportunity for some power in Iberia to seize Cartagena and the other things. Since there would be other rising trading cities and naval powers in the Mediterranean, Carthage was probably going to inevitably lose their position of power.

 

[cincpac overboard]

So if the Iberian tribes start forming states, I think you'd basically see what happened with Sicily happen in Spain. and deciding that they can get a better deal by seizing Carthage's assets on the coast. IF they did that, they would probably trigger a pretty serious response.

By the time Carthage and the Iberians come to blows, the Carthaginians will likely have expanded and consolidated their North African holdings beyond what they were OTL, giving them an expanded cavalry arm with more Berbers and Numidians than historically. On the other hand, they likely wouldn't have undertaken as many reforms of their army as they did OTL after their defeat in the First Punic War. As mentioned above, the Iberians have experience serving as mercenaries all over the Mediterranean, which could give their infantry a qualitative edge.

There are three possible spoilers for Carthage though. Rome will seek to undermine Carthage at any opportunity, and assuming Carthage maintains naval supremacy, could pull a reverse-Hannibal and send legions overland to support the Iberians. On a lesser scale, Syracuse, which hated Carthage for their attempts at conquering all of Sicily, might decide the time is right to conquer Lilybaeum and push them off the island entirely. Lastly is possible conflict with the Ptolemies in Egypt. If Carthage enlarges its footprint in Libya then border friction becomes almost inevitable, with the Ptolemies deciding, like Syracuse, to take advantage of a distracted Carthage.

 

[Zenevidas]

Syracuse, which hated Carthage for their attempts at conquering all of Sicily, might decide the time is right to conquer Lilybaeum and push them off the island entirely.

They might become a Roman ally