Augustus dies in 23 BC

[acgoldis]

From roman-emperors.org:

"Augustus fell seriously ill in 23 BC. As he lay on what he thought was his deathbed, he handed an account of the state's resources to the consul Cn. Calpurnius Piso, and his signet ring to Agrippa...By virtue of these powers and privileges, had anything happened to Augustus in the years 21-13 BC, Agrippa would have been ideally placed to take over the reins of government. Coins of the period 13-12 BC depict Agrippa as virtual co-emperor with Augustus, although the latter was always the senior partner."

What happens if Augustus succumbs to his illness? At the very least, we have a different successor. Do we go back to a republican form of government?

 

[Matteo]

It is very hard to give one single answer to your question because the year 23 was a major point of bifurcation in roman history.

Not only because of Augustus' illness which is supposed to have almost killed him but also because of the republican plots of the beginning of the year and, most important, of the crisis inside the caesarian-augustan party about which Ronald Syme wrote brillantly.

One thing seems sure to me. The armies and the italian elite as well as the provincial elite are not going to permit any instability to reignite civil war. They are not going to afford any risk of political power vacuum. They are not going to afford any internal crisis that could split the party and reignite civil war the same way as happened in the years 44-30.

And they are not going to accept any kind of too obviously monarchical an evolution of the government. Ia am pointing to his because historically, there was a crisis in the caesarian-augustan party in 23 because the senior leaders of the party (of which Agrippa was the figurehead) did not accept Augustus' attempts to promote his nephew and son-in-law Marcellus, only 19 years old, as the heir apparent of the Principate. Syme's analysis is that the party forced the decision on Augustus.

So, what is very probable is that they are going to demand a marriage between Julia and Agrippa the minute young Marcellus dies and that Agrippa is going to succeed to Augustus whether or not young Marcellus is already dead.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

I'm not sure killing Marcellus would be such a good idea or that he would just sit idly by and let himself get assassinated.

 

[Matteo]

I did not mention killing Marcellus.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

I did not mention killing Marcellus.

Well you said: "The minute young Marcellus dies" I assumed that had something to do with doing away with him, but now I remember he died in 23 BC OTL, so my mistake.