ATC: The Second Bulgarian Empire Survives
- Thread starter Grouchio
- Start date
Technically, the so-called IInd Bulgarian Empire is a Bulgaro-Valach state, ruled by a romanized-bulgar dynasty. They were more interested on keeping their hands in Danube's trade and fighting both byzantines, hungrians and whatever was north (cumans, slaves, etc) than attacking new territories.
If survived, i would more see a pre-Rumania/Bulgarian union, sort of Vlad Tepes Romania with multi-ethnicity, more stronger to resist Ottomans longer, but not able to repel them and a fortiori to avoid their attacks in Hungary (in fact, they would be more than happy to crush such an ennemy).
Maybe no vassals of Ottoman, but in their sphere of influence or (why not) in Poland's. They would probably benefit of any Ottoman's decline in Europe (by exemple Austria's rise-like) to have a real independence.
Now, make it a great european power? Seems hard to do. They didn't have a good position, they're stuck between potential monster states as Habsurgia, Russia, Ottoman Empire and its acess to sea trade is more than "reduced" with these guys : no possibility to create a lasting colonial policy by the way.
Maybe a balkanic or even an european power as Italy or XVII-Sweden, why not. After all, there is oil in this land, and the control of Danube is a real asset.
If survived, i would more see a pre-Rumania/Bulgarian union, sort of Vlad Tepes Romania with multi-ethnicity, more stronger to resist Ottomans longer, but not able to repel them and a fortiori to avoid their attacks in Hungary (in fact, they would be more than happy to crush such an ennemy).
Maybe no vassals of Ottoman, but in their sphere of influence or (why not) in Poland's. They would probably benefit of any Ottoman's decline in Europe (by exemple Austria's rise-like) to have a real independence.
Now, make it a great european power? Seems hard to do. They didn't have a good position, they're stuck between potential monster states as Habsurgia, Russia, Ottoman Empire and its acess to sea trade is more than "reduced" with these guys : no possibility to create a lasting colonial policy by the way.
Maybe a balkanic or even an european power as Italy or XVII-Sweden, why not. After all, there is oil in this land, and the control of Danube is a real asset.
Regional power status is possible, yes. But with larger polities like Poland, Hungary, and of course the Ottomans around...
Dementor
Banned
Not really, only the first two or three rulers claimed rulership over the Vlachs. And it's not entirely clear what exactly was meant under Vlachs in this period; according to an alternative theory this was the name for Bulgarians in Moesia, in contrast to those in Macedonia.
Also it seems likely, judging by their names, that the first dynasty (there were three major and a few minor ones) in the Second Bulgarian Empire was of Cuman origin.
In any case, any Vlach influence was probably minor and for most of the period they didn't control territories north of the Danube. Also, most rulers were far more concerned with their Southern neighbors than their northern ones.
Want to save the Second Bulgarian Empire, snuff the Ottomans in their grave. Shouldn't really be too hard to do, just kill off Osman before 1310 or thereabouts.
At my knowledge, only one claimed in his titulature the empire over vallachians and bulgars, mainly because of the growing influence of romance population in the empire : Ioanista I.
Now, both in chronicles, in cultural references and even in para-historic sciences, it's accepted to see "vallachian" influence, a strong one equal to the bulgarian and roman (byzantine) one.
Just an exemple, the two paws in the coat-of-arms (reconstitued or sourced) of many Asnen are a reference to the valachs and bulgarian origin and base of its empire, even for the "Emperors of Bulgarians and Greeks". Besides, the parenty with bessarabian coat-of-arms is really interesting.
For the pontifical sources, the chancelleries of the era are about a "Kingdom of Bulgarians and Valachians" (Bulgarorum et Blachorum)
This alternate theory is so littely supported that i'think it will disappear with its supporter's death.
Now, if you're saying here that Bulgars of Mesia have been called Vallachs too during a short period, why not. Personally i doubt it as the sources are not that precise about it, and critically because this use of walh could be more about the farmers of Moesia (as in Bulgar, valach is a name for both romance people and goat-keepers) a romanized population that slowly dissolved itself within the turco-slavic higher classes (by the way the presence of it would probably helped to maintain a cultural continuation between bulgarians and moldo-valach that climaxed with the Second Bulgarian State).
It didn't avoid the fact that the walha of Dacia and Danube are named so by all their neighboors (after a contact with the germans expeditions) in earlier sources than XIII, mainly greeks-romanians and Hungrians.
And the racin walh is clearly identied with romance-speaker peoples (or at least, peoples with a strong romance legacy as the welsh)
Maybe, but i think we can agree on this word : acculturation. It's how things always worked in the Balkan peninsula. And when other chronicles quote the Asen where Valachs, i don't see why it would be uncompatible.
The capitals, except the latter was in regions inhabited by a very likely majoritary romance population, except for the latter (that would explain many things, see below).
Basically, we could say that if the first part of SBS' history was undoutbly of both valach and bulgarian origin and basment (sources, both chronicles, or archeologies or even para-historic are clear on it), with the deplacment of the country towards South (where were its interests) concretized in other things by a capital in bulgarian lands, made of Vallachias a region of lesser importance.
At this moment, as the Cuman pressure was no more (and anyway more translated into a vallachisation of Cumans more than anything) the moldo-vallachs used this to gain more and more autonomy from the bulgarian Empire until its final disapperence.
But this is not at all contradictory with the important influence of romance culture and people in the formation of Bulgarian nation. For political and nationalist reason, it's often occulted in bulgarian and romanian historiographies but outside, it's common and recognized knowledge.
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Now, for turning back into the subject of an AH, the "royal way" to have a surving bulgaro-valach state in the Balkans, is to lower the efforts and investment in southern business, and to make the tsars ready and able to fight Hungary and to expand their territories north, until the Prout.
A good thing would be to butterfly the 1204 prise of Constantinople, or at the contrary to make the Bulgarian defeated by the Latins at the battle of Adrianople.
A strong empire, Byzantine or Latin, in the southern Balkans would likely force the Asnen to search a benefit elsewhere.
Dementor
Banned
Actually, it was the first three rulers who claimed that title.
Not really, in fact many later chronicles omit this altogether.
I don't see how this has anything to do with this.
Yes, and that disappeared after the third ruler of the Empire.
What is this supposed to mean?
Vlach does not mean goat keeper in Bulgarian. There is not much evidence of a large surviving (from Roman times) Romance speaking population in today's Bulgaria.
Well, the fact that they abandoned the Vlach claim rather quickly seeks to speak against it.
The capital was always in Tarnovo, so I don't really understand what you mean here.
The influence of the Romance culture and people on the Bulgarian nation is substantially less than of the Bulgarian culture and people on the Romanian nation. Compare the number of loanwords or toponyms, for example.
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Yes, but the Mongols would soon put an end to any such efforts, as happened in OTL (and with that remove any chance of forming a real Bulgarian-Vlach state. In any case, the south was more valuable than any potential northern expansion.
You said it, later chronicles. At this time, it's true, the SBS's valach influence have indeed been lowered by the autonomy (or quasi-independence) of its territories and nobles.
And the bulgar and byzantine base was highlited, explaining the many omissions.
But historiography isn't History. Valach were a base of the state's creation, almost always quoted in contemporaries source.
Dementor
Banned
Of course that's if you accept the ethnic theory for the term Vlach. Which becomes a lot more doubtful when you consider that contemporary Byzantine sources confuse Bulgarians, Moesians and Vlachs and that their Wallachia was apparently the same as Moesia.
What exactly is a Bessarabian style coat of arms?
As far as I know, the Asen dynasty claimed to be descended from the rulers of the First Bulgarian Empire.
And the fact that the title was abandoned, does suggest that the Vlachs were no longer considered an important part of the country. Which could mean that the kingdom no longer controlled any territories with significant Vlach population (though this was as its height, so it seems unlikely) or that the Vlachs were no longer distinguished from the Bulgarians.
Incidentally, domestically the rulers of the Second Bulgarian Kingdom often omitted the Vlach part of their titles.
As I pointed out above, one can't entirely dismiss this theory as nationalistic
Please don't lecture me on my own language. In Bulgarian Vlach means means a Balkan romance speaker, including Romanian in older usage.
Actually, about 20 years. This usage started to disappear after Tsar Kaloyan.
I didn't say that, I was comparing the relative effect.
The postposed article also appears in Albanian and its origin is not well established. It could just as well have come from Thracian or even from Bulgarian.
And I don't see what you mean by cadres and institutions.
It's not incompatible, though it's not necessary to explain contemporary Bulgarian culture and it's not especially likely.
That was the situation in the second half of the 13th century, but no expansion was possible with the much stronger Mongols. In fact, the Kingdom had probably more influence north of the Danube during the height of its power.
The theory of vlaha as "romance people" is virtually undisputed. Too many occurences from one point to Europe to another. You can say that the sense evolved from this racine, defining rural communauties because romance peoples were the archetyp of these; not that use is contradictory and critically more ancient than the ethnic usage.
I repeat it, you can find "Wallachias" from the Antiquity (Volcos) to modern utilisations (Wales). Interestingly the use of the word as shepherd is mainly slavic (with the noted exception of Greek), and could show a dominance over a population.
In fact, i ask myself if the use in greek of valha for rural groups didn't came from slavic. It is true that slaves influenced the byzantine greek and that would explain a lot (both this use, and a "corruption" to deign non-romance people with), but as i said before i'm not linguist.
There is no a "bessarabian style", i meant common references used. Choice of colors, of figures and of aspects.
And Medieval French Kings claimed to be Troyans. It's a little more prestigious to say "I'm the heir of the former bulgarian Empire. So i've legitimacy to rule the Bulgarians, which i wouldn't have so easily if i was the desdendent of a romanized turk, that i am not at all."
1) I agree with you, as i said before, that the interests of the SBS allowed the Valachs to have more autonomy in the same time "romans" took a more important place within the society. It's not they didn't recognized the Turnovo's rule, but all the territories north of Danube lived their own, while the southern Wallachia were slowly absorbed. They were still dinstinguished tough, but something like "ours" vallachian, opposed to "them", less orthodoxized with less byzantine influence.
As i said, it couldn't be in itself a proof of the disapprence of romance influence. It could be (attention, no affirmation here, just to point that others explanation are possible) 1)The affirmation of a power on a territory, not on a particular people 2)The fact bulgarian could mean slavic and romance, or something else.
It's a theory that is not supported by many people outside slavic Balkans, that didn't care about the ethymological, historical and archeological proofs on what you call "ethnic" theory and critically allow the historiography to claim a continuous presence of a bulgarian ethny that would have be the center of acculturation and not a part (even important) of a melting-pot.
So, it's maybe not a nationalistic theory, but as Granny said "If it have the taste of, the smell of, then be careful because it have some odds to be one".
So, why these many occurences of Vlaha as shepherd, particularly for countries where romance population indeed were formed by sheperding communities?
Admitting that the title wasn't taken for giggles, and that it is admitted that Asen came from today's Romania (wallachian or romanized cumans), we could say that until the abandon of the title, the emperors were bulgaro-vallachian rulers.
In fact, you could even advance that taking the title of "Kings of Vallachs" could be a sign that this power began to vanish a little, and a recall was necessary to fortify it, but i'm the devil's advocate here.
Okay, today's Bulgaria is less influenced by romance culture. But i don't see how it point something about the Asen dynasty and the cultures in the SBS?
Well, indeed we could have here a Thracian racine, but Bulgarian? Or the old-Bulgarian or the medieval slavic were related to thracian, so i can't see how it could have been come from.
Wow, i don't search to explain today's Bulgaria, i just point that what Bulgaria was (and so what it is today eventually) during this period more tied with romance people and influence that stated.
People: I am thrilled by all the knowledge you guys have to contribute to this thread, but what do Vlachs have to do with the survival of the Bulgarian State? What I ask is when Bulgaria could be saved, how it is saved, and by who?
I also hope this turns into an After Action Report (Issac's Empire 2.0-esque) in the near future!
I also hope this turns into an After Action Report (Issac's Empire 2.0-esque) in the near future!
Eventual PoD: Make http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaloyan_of_Bulgaria survive Oct 1207 assassination. He takes Thessalonica. With greater strenght wins the negotioations with the Papacy, and becames Roman Emperor of the East, and takes Constantinople as a capital. The Latin nobles retain their dominions under his suzerainity. The Union with the western chirch is evolved into complete catholicization of the Empire. Due to the mature slavonic language church and culture and dominating demographic position of the Bulgarians in the Balkan peninsula, the Eastern Roman Empire becomes fully catholic and de-greecized. Only the greeks remaining ortodox makes them object of persecution, pushing out of the big cities and eventual demise.
Thus the Second Bulgarian Empire turns into East Roman Empire, but catholicized and slavicized ( bulgarianized ). A slavic catholic powerhouse as such ERE has global consequences: Kaloyan and his descendants prevent the Northern crusades ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ostsiedlung ) and the kingdoms and dutchies of the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polabian_Slavs remain in the orbit of the ITTL ERE, and also via its Cuman and other steppe peoples politically and culturally dominated expands into the OTL Russian lands too. The division line / the borderline between ERE and HRE / is the line Lubeck-Trieste.
In short this bulgaro-catholic ERE evolves territorially like the OTL later Ottoman empire but west-to-east.
Both http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knights_Templar and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teutonic_Knights are "given" by the Pope to Kaloyan *( spiritual head - the Pope, imperial sovereign - the ERE Emperor ), and using the vast human and other resources of the Slavdom under this ERE, the Crusaders mission in the Near east never exhausts. Both orders are HQed in Constantinople. Templars act predominantly south ( Palestine, Egypt, Arabia, Persia ) and the Teutons - north ( consolidation of this ERE in Baltic, Novgorod, Volga-Ural area ). The Templars unobstructedly run and expand their financial operations from Constantinople for the next 1000 years. ITTL Templars specialize in the "soft" power - finance, education, christianization, the ITTL Teutons in the "hard" power - millions strong "conquistadors" force recruiting kids all over the empire and beyond, like OTL Mamluks did.
The Mongols hit a brick wall in their march west and this gives them stronger reasons and bias the Christian mongol factions to prevale. The ITTL equivalents of the Golden horde and the Ilkhanate are catholic ERE vassals.
This Second Bulgarian Empire successfully cleanses Anatolia ( via "importing" several million northern slavs ) from turks and reverts the Islamization course all over South-west Asia ( even today , say, Egypt has 20%+ christian population, ITTL the reverse is complete ). The Egypt case is even easier t handle cause south of Egypt christian kingdoms of Sudan and Ethiopia are integrated.
Such ERE builds up as prime naval and gunpowder empire in the next couple of centuries. ITTL ERE controls from its very beginning both the Silk Road and the sea Spice road. Once taking beachheads on Red Sea, the Persian gulf and Oman gulf/Arabian sea this ERE reaches far towards East and South Africa and India / Malay / Indochina.
Thus the Second Bulgarian Empire turns into East Roman Empire, but catholicized and slavicized ( bulgarianized ). A slavic catholic powerhouse as such ERE has global consequences: Kaloyan and his descendants prevent the Northern crusades ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ostsiedlung ) and the kingdoms and dutchies of the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polabian_Slavs remain in the orbit of the ITTL ERE, and also via its Cuman and other steppe peoples politically and culturally dominated expands into the OTL Russian lands too. The division line / the borderline between ERE and HRE / is the line Lubeck-Trieste.
In short this bulgaro-catholic ERE evolves territorially like the OTL later Ottoman empire but west-to-east.
Both http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knights_Templar and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teutonic_Knights are "given" by the Pope to Kaloyan *( spiritual head - the Pope, imperial sovereign - the ERE Emperor ), and using the vast human and other resources of the Slavdom under this ERE, the Crusaders mission in the Near east never exhausts. Both orders are HQed in Constantinople. Templars act predominantly south ( Palestine, Egypt, Arabia, Persia ) and the Teutons - north ( consolidation of this ERE in Baltic, Novgorod, Volga-Ural area ). The Templars unobstructedly run and expand their financial operations from Constantinople for the next 1000 years. ITTL Templars specialize in the "soft" power - finance, education, christianization, the ITTL Teutons in the "hard" power - millions strong "conquistadors" force recruiting kids all over the empire and beyond, like OTL Mamluks did.
The Mongols hit a brick wall in their march west and this gives them stronger reasons and bias the Christian mongol factions to prevale. The ITTL equivalents of the Golden horde and the Ilkhanate are catholic ERE vassals.
This Second Bulgarian Empire successfully cleanses Anatolia ( via "importing" several million northern slavs ) from turks and reverts the Islamization course all over South-west Asia ( even today , say, Egypt has 20%+ christian population, ITTL the reverse is complete ). The Egypt case is even easier t handle cause south of Egypt christian kingdoms of Sudan and Ethiopia are integrated.
Such ERE builds up as prime naval and gunpowder empire in the next couple of centuries. ITTL ERE controls from its very beginning both the Silk Road and the sea Spice road. Once taking beachheads on Red Sea, the Persian gulf and Oman gulf/Arabian sea this ERE reaches far towards East and South Africa and India / Malay / Indochina.
well, I agree, but lets call it more moderatelly an extreme variant -- some things in OTL are even more wankish: if you do not know history, would you believe and not mark as wankish the histories of , say, the Roman, Ottoman, Islamic, Mongol, Russian ... empires, which manage to grow 1000-fold in territory and population in mere decades and couple of centuries...? Rome started with 10s of thousands of people controlling territory of hundreds of sq.miles, as was Muscovy, the Caliphate... Kalyoan ERE Emperor time-line should be regarded in this aspect as hundreds of time more possible / probable ( or more numerous within the Quantum Multiverse ).
Dragos Cel Mare
Banned
Not that probable. First up, all those empires were able to get the allegiance of multiple ethnic groups through a mix of concilation and force. From your sources (the notoriously unreliable Wikipedia), Kaloyan only had the latter, unless you butterfly away the head injury that caused him to go on many fits of rage.
Even then, becoming Catholic will only earn him the hatred of the Greeks, who would never accept a papist as Emperor. Remember, they got subjected to atrocities by the Crusaders, while Kaloyan slaugthered the Byzantine nobles who opposed him. No, it's more probable that Epirus and Nicea would intensify their efforts against him, and probably win against his sucessors, albeit later than OTL.
And don't use the Mongols as examples. Genghis Khan was a better military commander than Kaloyan, and had the advantage of a large belt of Grassland that stretched from China to Hungary as well as a style of combat with few countermeasures (Mounted Archery). As for the Ottomans, both the Seljuk and Byzantine empires were collapsing, instead of just the Byzantine.
Lastly, you don't know this, but you sound very condescending.
END POST
Even then, becoming Catholic will only earn him the hatred of the Greeks, who would never accept a papist as Emperor. Remember, they got subjected to atrocities by the Crusaders, while Kaloyan slaugthered the Byzantine nobles who opposed him. No, it's more probable that Epirus and Nicea would intensify their efforts against him, and probably win against his sucessors, albeit later than OTL.
And don't use the Mongols as examples. Genghis Khan was a better military commander than Kaloyan, and had the advantage of a large belt of Grassland that stretched from China to Hungary as well as a style of combat with few countermeasures (Mounted Archery). As for the Ottomans, both the Seljuk and Byzantine empires were collapsing, instead of just the Byzantine.
Lastly, you don't know this, but you sound very condescending.
END POST
Dragos,
Pls, do not take it personal. I mean:
To be honest this sentence vastly surprized me! In fact my lines do not contain ANY notion or emotion.
Well, I base my assumtion / guess on the sheer numbers. A Balkan based Slavic-Catholic empire in fact possesses enormous human and other resources, and its integration would be driven by already set in motion into this direction historical forces. Said in simpler way -- such direction of evolution, makes the whole Central and Eastern ( Slavic ) Europe to "click together" in usefull for its peoples manner -> This map although not 100000...% exact and correct gives usgood impression of both the balance of powers and the current cultural-political "trajectories" which the different polities follow. Respectivelly, "would" follow, or "is easier to follow / meets less historical drag" to follow.
The same is valid here. Even more so. Clockarrow-wise:
1. Byzantine is bust to peaces. Nicaea and Trebison and Epirus are rump petty remnants which could be annihilated ( or ignored ) for decades. The crusaders and "latins" in general are already controlling vast stretches of lands ripped from the body of the dead ERE. A Kaloyanic ERE would strenghten the westerners positions. The greek / hellenic population in Byzantine has never been the majority, and also the OTL history shows that who controls Constantinople AND Thrace is the winner ( OTL Ottoman empire became dominant and strong after taking the Balkans ). The Malthusian line for pre-Industrial Balkans is 10ish million people population, in such Kaloyanic ERE this population goes into the Empire in one go, TOGETHER with the Byzantine political culture and structure and tradition to run it.
2. Serbia & West Balkans -- in OTL Serbia has only two Empire-building rushes -- in 14th century ( due to the weakening of Bulgaria ), and in 20th century ( due to the weakening of Bulgaria, again ). The sources show that western balkans in 12-13th century were in the same fragmented state like now. AND more importantly they were kinda vassalic to Bulgaria.
3. Hungary -- it is strong, not so much as in pre-christianization times, but strong. Ideal victim of the Kaloyanic cumans and the germanic people from west.
4. Poland & West Slavs & HRE -- well formed already, already Papal christian, but politically decentralized in several Dutchies. The Polabian slavs are freshly sunjugated by the HRE and subject of pressure and colonization by germans. Via diplomacy Kaloyanic ERE could "buy out" these Slavs from HRE with the mediation of the thankful Pope who sees how his spiritual empire suddenly inflates in territory and souls several-fold! Not necessary to happen in one go. Kaloyanic ERE could play with the HRE nobility, granting them ERE status, land, serfs to feed on, while in the same time gets nominal and tax and confessional control over the mostly slavic populations under them. Including Bohemia, Moravia, Wagria, Branibor ( Brandenburg ), Carinthia... When both ERE and HRE catholic, the dealing with peoples and territories between them becomes something more solvable in Vatican negotiations and lobbying than on the battle fields. The conquered west slavs anyway will prefer to be served by Slavic catholic priest, and to move towards literacy using the well establised "church-slavonic language" instead of German/ Latin...
5. Principalities of Rus & Novgorodian Republic are only scene of internal clashes between the supporters of Ortodoxy vs. the ones who adopt the catholicization of Constantinople and the Ecumenical Patriarchy there. The Kaloyanic ERE influence though comes in these lands together with the Cuman and Polish and Baltic swords, Norman boats, Cyrillic script used on their own language ...
6. The Steppe. Kaloyan had pretty good connections with the Cumans. They were under strong christianic influence anyway, and the trick here would be diplomatically Kaloyan to "buy" the whole Cuman Confederation with titles, lands and serfs ( dispersed all over the ERE ) to feed upon , as well as with formal millitary positions. In short the best way would be to Teutonize them.
The granted lands to be in the most "pain in the arse" areas -- say to grant these new knights and nobles most of Hungary, strategic tracts of land in the new western territories ( the ex-eastern, the slavic HRE provinces / marches ). In this area Kara Khitai and Uigurs and Naiman are mostly Nestorian Christians anyway. The strong example of the Cumans will be followed by these people too. Especially under the threat from East from the rising Mongols.
7. The Orders, the crussaders, the normans.: The mentioned above adoption of the Templars ( Red Cross ) and the Teutons ( Black Cross ), and their "specialization" -- Red Cross = money, finance, banking & Black Cross = sword, millitary, conquest. The crussaders furnish themselves not only with very nearby and solid base, but also with inexorable source of pilgrims, soldiers, wealth ... even colonist for the Holy Lands, for Egypt, North Africa, the Fertile Crescent, Mesopotamia, the Gulf shores... If ex-Cumans provide the "mounted archery" millitary force, the normans bring in the formula state of the art shipbuilding and naval capabilities.
Well, rage and furiousity are good features for such empire founding ruler. Surviving Thessalonica Oct 1207, means that he'd be inherited directly ( skipping Boril ) by Ivan Asen II -- pretty skillful diplomat.
... and shall perish...
Epirus and Nicaea shall end as fiefs of the new slavic, norman, steppe lords subjects of the Kaloyanic ERE Emperor.
Unavoidable to use cause namely THIS follows in the timeline. Although it is not so sure -- Teutonisation of the steppe people down to Jungaria and Uyguristan and their inclusion in ERE as new nobles with lands granted in the extreme West of the ERE, could easily butterfly Chengis Khan, and the "mongol" story ITTL to unfold with opposite sign in geographical terms. Anti-mongol wave blasting from west to east and taking over Manchuria, Korea, China ... until the end of 13th century. With "teutonized" steppe people from Hungary to Naiman and Tangut ... Kaloyan and jhis successors on the Catholic Constantinople throne would possess 80-90% of the Steppe together with its people properly and tightly engaged in the Empire building.
... AND most importantly west-to-east Steppe invasion must bring a version of the Black death not from East Eurasia ( China ) to West Eurasia ( Europe ), but vice versa... What was the population of 1250es China? What was the average density , respectively the infectivity / mortality rate to happen there? ITTL world may look exactly the opposite of our one in population figures ... Imagine Western Eurasia ( + N.Africa ) inhabited with 2 bln. Europeans vs. China world with only 400-500 mln. around current age.
we do not know that, it is hard to compare because the scale of the resources, enemies and battles is quite different... BUT, even if 100% so, how could 1/10th of the Steppe to survive facing 9/10ths comming from the west. In such TL world, most probably no memory of Chengis Khan would at all form.
so were the Cumans-Khitans-Naiman-Uyghurs... + add the catholic religious proselitism and passion in their side of the equation.
Exactly right: The Rum Seljucs will be sqweezed beyond existence between the Cilician Armenia, Crusader Dominions and the Kaloyanic ERE. The seljuk Khwarezmian Shandom will fall hit from North ( Teutonic steppe knights ) and from West ( the debris from the Rum seljuks would follow the path / the winner example of the Cumans ). We can even imagine a Uitimate Crussade which to raise Mecca and Medina about the end of 13th century...
Pls, do not take it personal. I mean:
To be honest this sentence vastly surprized me! In fact my lines do not contain ANY notion or emotion.
Well, I base my assumtion / guess on the sheer numbers. A Balkan based Slavic-Catholic empire in fact possesses enormous human and other resources, and its integration would be driven by already set in motion into this direction historical forces. Said in simpler way -- such direction of evolution, makes the whole Central and Eastern ( Slavic ) Europe to "click together" in usefull for its peoples manner -> This map although not 100000...% exact and correct gives usgood impression of both the balance of powers and the current cultural-political "trajectories" which the different polities follow. Respectivelly, "would" follow, or "is easier to follow / meets less historical drag" to follow.
The same is valid here. Even more so. Clockarrow-wise:
1. Byzantine is bust to peaces. Nicaea and Trebison and Epirus are rump petty remnants which could be annihilated ( or ignored ) for decades. The crusaders and "latins" in general are already controlling vast stretches of lands ripped from the body of the dead ERE. A Kaloyanic ERE would strenghten the westerners positions. The greek / hellenic population in Byzantine has never been the majority, and also the OTL history shows that who controls Constantinople AND Thrace is the winner ( OTL Ottoman empire became dominant and strong after taking the Balkans ). The Malthusian line for pre-Industrial Balkans is 10ish million people population, in such Kaloyanic ERE this population goes into the Empire in one go, TOGETHER with the Byzantine political culture and structure and tradition to run it.
2. Serbia & West Balkans -- in OTL Serbia has only two Empire-building rushes -- in 14th century ( due to the weakening of Bulgaria ), and in 20th century ( due to the weakening of Bulgaria, again ). The sources show that western balkans in 12-13th century were in the same fragmented state like now. AND more importantly they were kinda vassalic to Bulgaria.
3. Hungary -- it is strong, not so much as in pre-christianization times, but strong. Ideal victim of the Kaloyanic cumans and the germanic people from west.
4. Poland & West Slavs & HRE -- well formed already, already Papal christian, but politically decentralized in several Dutchies. The Polabian slavs are freshly sunjugated by the HRE and subject of pressure and colonization by germans. Via diplomacy Kaloyanic ERE could "buy out" these Slavs from HRE with the mediation of the thankful Pope who sees how his spiritual empire suddenly inflates in territory and souls several-fold! Not necessary to happen in one go. Kaloyanic ERE could play with the HRE nobility, granting them ERE status, land, serfs to feed on, while in the same time gets nominal and tax and confessional control over the mostly slavic populations under them. Including Bohemia, Moravia, Wagria, Branibor ( Brandenburg ), Carinthia... When both ERE and HRE catholic, the dealing with peoples and territories between them becomes something more solvable in Vatican negotiations and lobbying than on the battle fields. The conquered west slavs anyway will prefer to be served by Slavic catholic priest, and to move towards literacy using the well establised "church-slavonic language" instead of German/ Latin...
5. Principalities of Rus & Novgorodian Republic are only scene of internal clashes between the supporters of Ortodoxy vs. the ones who adopt the catholicization of Constantinople and the Ecumenical Patriarchy there. The Kaloyanic ERE influence though comes in these lands together with the Cuman and Polish and Baltic swords, Norman boats, Cyrillic script used on their own language ...
6. The Steppe. Kaloyan had pretty good connections with the Cumans. They were under strong christianic influence anyway, and the trick here would be diplomatically Kaloyan to "buy" the whole Cuman Confederation with titles, lands and serfs ( dispersed all over the ERE ) to feed upon , as well as with formal millitary positions. In short the best way would be to Teutonize them.
The granted lands to be in the most "pain in the arse" areas -- say to grant these new knights and nobles most of Hungary, strategic tracts of land in the new western territories ( the ex-eastern, the slavic HRE provinces / marches ). In this area Kara Khitai and Uigurs and Naiman are mostly Nestorian Christians anyway. The strong example of the Cumans will be followed by these people too. Especially under the threat from East from the rising Mongols.
7. The Orders, the crussaders, the normans.: The mentioned above adoption of the Templars ( Red Cross ) and the Teutons ( Black Cross ), and their "specialization" -- Red Cross = money, finance, banking & Black Cross = sword, millitary, conquest. The crussaders furnish themselves not only with very nearby and solid base, but also with inexorable source of pilgrims, soldiers, wealth ... even colonist for the Holy Lands, for Egypt, North Africa, the Fertile Crescent, Mesopotamia, the Gulf shores... If ex-Cumans provide the "mounted archery" millitary force, the normans bring in the formula state of the art shipbuilding and naval capabilities.
Well, rage and furiousity are good features for such empire founding ruler. Surviving Thessalonica Oct 1207, means that he'd be inherited directly ( skipping Boril ) by Ivan Asen II -- pretty skillful diplomat.
... and shall perish...
Epirus and Nicaea shall end as fiefs of the new slavic, norman, steppe lords subjects of the Kaloyanic ERE Emperor.
Unavoidable to use cause namely THIS follows in the timeline. Although it is not so sure -- Teutonisation of the steppe people down to Jungaria and Uyguristan and their inclusion in ERE as new nobles with lands granted in the extreme West of the ERE, could easily butterfly Chengis Khan, and the "mongol" story ITTL to unfold with opposite sign in geographical terms. Anti-mongol wave blasting from west to east and taking over Manchuria, Korea, China ... until the end of 13th century. With "teutonized" steppe people from Hungary to Naiman and Tangut ... Kaloyan and jhis successors on the Catholic Constantinople throne would possess 80-90% of the Steppe together with its people properly and tightly engaged in the Empire building.
... AND most importantly west-to-east Steppe invasion must bring a version of the Black death not from East Eurasia ( China ) to West Eurasia ( Europe ), but vice versa... What was the population of 1250es China? What was the average density , respectively the infectivity / mortality rate to happen there? ITTL world may look exactly the opposite of our one in population figures ... Imagine Western Eurasia ( + N.Africa ) inhabited with 2 bln. Europeans vs. China world with only 400-500 mln. around current age.
we do not know that, it is hard to compare because the scale of the resources, enemies and battles is quite different... BUT, even if 100% so, how could 1/10th of the Steppe to survive facing 9/10ths comming from the west. In such TL world, most probably no memory of Chengis Khan would at all form.
so were the Cumans-Khitans-Naiman-Uyghurs... + add the catholic religious proselitism and passion in their side of the equation.
Exactly right: The Rum Seljucs will be sqweezed beyond existence between the Cilician Armenia, Crusader Dominions and the Kaloyanic ERE. The seljuk Khwarezmian Shandom will fall hit from North ( Teutonic steppe knights ) and from West ( the debris from the Rum seljuks would follow the path / the winner example of the Cumans ). We can even imagine a Uitimate Crussade which to raise Mecca and Medina about the end of 13th century...
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Dragos Cel Mare
Banned
First up, the Latin nobles are going to compete with the Bulgarian nobles, even if there's plenty of land for both. The latter would want the best lands and privileges, causing the Latins to rankle. Not merely that, but Kaloyan might be amenable to Catholicism, but about his relatives, the Orthodox Bulgarian clergy, and the peasantry? You might find that a Papacy-Kaloyan alliance is weaker than you think.
That's not counting the fact that if Kaloyan becomes Emperor, he might think that he should be equal or even superior to the pope.
That's not counting the fact that if Kaloyan becomes Emperor, he might think that he should be equal or even superior to the pope.