AHC/WI French Civil War instead of Spanish.

Woolly Mammoth · Oct 11, 2013

The challenge is to have using the recognisable interwar period and therefore a PoD no earlier than say 1925 to change the political situation in France so that open civil war occurs between a leftist popular front government - possibly the OTL one, and openly fascist rebellious military/open politically motivated conflict failing that. Any method or plausible scenario is fine. The difficulty I foresee is the overall greater stability of French democracy and the lack of divisive elements in the constitution.

What occurred to me on this thought is changing the situation of the 6 Feb 1934 crises or avoiding it instead having escalating fascist/leftist violence and thus avoiding the wake up call for the left. Then having the fascist supporters rise in around 1936 or whenever a weak left wing government takes control.

King Henry · Oct 11, 2013

Wasn't there a threat of a coup against the Popular Front if they intervened significantly in the SCW? If you're willing to have both, seems easy enough.

kurtstallings · Oct 12, 2013

Same question

Had the same basic thought last night when I noticed the challenge post. I was just looking at some old research I'd done on this scenario and came online to post the same question: is it required that there is no Spanish civil war?

I ask for three reasons:

(1) The Spanish civil war was closely linked to the internationalist fascism of that era; it is difficult to imagine a French civil war driven largely by fascist agitation if economic, ideological or international circumstances were changed in a way defeating the Spanish Nationalists.

(2) It's possible, but kind of a buzz kill. The stakes are higher if France's fate isn't tied to a victory of fascist / authoritarian syndicalism throughout most of western Europe.

(3) Also, in terms of stakes, that victory would raise interesting questions regarding OTL's Axis. Diplomatic histories have illuminated the depth of antipathy many Italian fascists had for Hitler, and Franco opted for formal neutrality even in OTL. A coalition of convenience among Deát's socialist nationalism with the Green Shirts and other fascists, along with various Bonapartist / military authoritarians, might have required the first group to adopt a more strident and realistic view of Hitler's continental ambitions.

zert · Oct 12, 2013

Interesting idea and I am not sure how this may come about. If the French Fascists win then could the balance. If France is Fascist, would they naturnally sideb Hitler or could their be a war between Germany/France/Italy over the future of "TRUE FASCISM"?

RogueBeaver · Oct 12, 2013

IIRC there was once a TL based on Croix de Feu.

Woolly Mammoth · Oct 12, 2013

In terms of the OP I wasn't really considering trying to influence the situation in Spain directly unless doing so was the result or cause of events taking place that lead to a French Civil War. A difficult consideration would be the much greater colonial baggage that would entail - would this perhaps influence the United Kingdom to take a far more interventionist approach by perhaps occupying border areas or directly supporting the "Republican" side of the conflict ?

King Henry · Oct 12, 2013

Britain would almost certainly intervene to restore order as quickly as possible, yes. Germany, Italy and the Soviets may move ahead with any ambitions they have in Eastern Europe ahead of schedule as well.

zert · Oct 12, 2013

Could a French Civil War be a spark that sets off WW2 early?

Woolly Mammoth · Oct 13, 2013

zert said:
Could a French Civil War be a spark that sets off WW2 early?

It would depend how the Germans chose to intervene, as they nearly undoubtedly would. Which in itself would probably depend on the timescale of the Civil War - I imagine that a 1938 or 1939 Germany would tend much more towards directly intervening officially rather than supplies and support. Additionally would the Nazis be tempted into trying to annex areas such as Alsace-Lorraine which would almost certainly be regarded by the French "Republicans" as an act of war.

zert · Oct 14, 2013

Xhavnak said:
It would depend how the Germans chose to intervene, as they nearly undoubtedly would. Which in itself would probably depend on the timescale of the Civil War - I imagine that a 1938 or 1939 Germany would tend much more towards directly intervening officially rather than supplies and support. Additionally would the Nazis be tempted into trying to annex areas such as Alsace-Lorraine which would almost certainly be regarded by the French "Republicans" as an act of war.

Interesting ideas and I am not sure if Germany would try to annex anything. It would be not unexpected but Germany might try to be sure that those regions were occupied by its troops and supporters.

TheNordicBrit · Oct 14, 2013

Xhavnak said:
It would depend how the Germans chose to intervene, as they nearly undoubtedly would. Which in itself would probably depend on the timescale of the Civil War - I imagine that a 1938 or 1939 Germany would tend much more towards directly intervening officially rather than supplies and support. Additionally would the Nazis be tempted into trying to annex areas such as Alsace-Lorraine which would almost certainly be regarded by the French "Republicans" as an act of war.

I imagine Hitler would try and intervene directly if the fascists had won some hard victories against any republicans. Prior to that it'd probably be scaled back to purely being supplies and maybe a small-scale troop escapade.

In saying that, if the French fascists were winning the war I doubt they'd want, or allow, German intervention. The Germans were still hated in France at the time, and I think if French fascists got them involved people would turn against the Germans and French fascists. Look at OTL French resistance, many of the fighters were actually far-right French people who, though they wanted a fascist regime in France, they didn't want to be under the thumb of Germany.

I doubt Hitler would try and annex any French territory, though he'd try and look out for German-speaking people in France. The reason I doubt it is because the French fascists will be nationalistic, and many were anti-German. It would be stupid of Hitler to try and take land from a fellow fascist country that might not be as anti-German as it could be simply out of debt to German.

Instead I think Hitler would make a demand of the French to look after 'Germans' in Alsace-Lorraine, as Mussolini would request the fair treatment of Italian speakers in Nice, Savoy and Corsica.

The only land-transference I could possibly see happening would be if the civil war was going badly for the fascists and so Germany and Italy intervened and won it for the far-right, at which point possibly Tunisia would be ceded to Italy.

Derek Pullem · Oct 14, 2013

Interesting idea would be a double French-Spanish civil war (two conflicts, separate but co-incident).

Even more interesting would be a Nationalist win in Spain and a Socialist / Communist win in France.

Peversely this might avoid WW2 completely (or at least make it Germany/Italy/Spain? vs USSR/France war. Postulating a weakened France and a neutral Britain / USA Spain would have nowhere near as much to fear).

Woolly Mammoth · Oct 14, 2013

TheNordicBrit said:
I doubt Hitler would try and annex any French territory, though he'd try and look out for German-speaking people in France. The reason I doubt it is because the French fascists will be nationalistic, and many were anti-German. It would be stupid of Hitler to try and take land from a fellow fascist country that might not be as anti-German as it could be simply out of debt to German.

Instead I think Hitler would make a demand of the French to look after 'Germans' in Alsace-Lorraine, as Mussolini would request the fair treatment of Italian speakers in Nice, Savoy and Corsica.

The only land-transference I could possibly see happening would be if the civil war was going badly for the fascists and so Germany and Italy intervened and won it for the far-right, at which point possibly Tunisia would be ceded to Italy.

What might be interesting is if the "Nationalist" forces in France do agree the rights of Germans/Italians in those given areas and then the Republicans regain them - if Germany then did annex AL it may have the effect of fragmenting the Right Wing side of the civil war into pro and anti-German forces. Assuming that the Germans then intervene fully and install a government favourable to them would it possibly resemble a more independent Vichy ?

Also I am curious as to the sides the colonies may choose - I suppose in some cases it would depend upon the allegiance of the individual French governors but some cases might be interesting - I can see the Pied Noir in Algeria supporting the Nationalists but would protectorates attempt to break free ?

Woolly Mammoth · Oct 14, 2013

Additionally if Axis intervention in favour of the pro-German Nationalists in exchange for say the transfer of the aforementioned border areas was the spark that caused the Second World War against the British then what would become of Belgium and the Netherlands ? Given that the actual German "invasion" of France ITTL would have been largely peaceful crossing of Fascist controlled borders the strategic need to invade Belgium would be gone. I can see Belgium being forced possibly by invasion once the war has begun into becoming a Axis puppet, this may occur if Allied Expeditionary forces retreat there. Netherlands may have more chance to prepare defences.

Woolly Mammoth · Oct 21, 2013

Hopefully allowed to briefly raise this thread just once more to ask a question, hoping to use this idea as part of a TL. What I was wondering is who would be the leaders of the "Nationalists" in this scenario - I imagine the initial leaders would be right wing inclined but moderate generals/politicians and those of the "Fascist" side be leaders either from OTL Vichy or far right groups.

Anyone got any suggestions ?