AHC/WI: French Civil War during the Spanish Civil War

[LHB]

What is the best way to get Action Francaise to stage a coup against the Popular Front and plunge France into a civil war situation similar to that which is happening in Spain after the Spanish Civil War begins?

What would this do to international diplomacy and politics with Fascism clearly on the march across Europe?

 

[Seleucus]

It's hard to retrospectively evaluate, but the specific reason Leon Blum didn't want to intervene in Spain was that he believed aiding the Republicans would lead to a fascist takeover in Spain. In a world where the SFIO does better in 1936 election and is hence less reliant on the Radicals, it might seem somewhat plausible for the French to intervene in Spain, followed by an attempt at right-wing rebellion.

 

[fasquardon]

I can't see any likelihood of Action Francaise or any "fascist" group to pulling a coup/plunging the country into civil war. Those were very much weak and marginal groups in France at this time.

Now what could happen is that the politicians try to intervene in the Spanish Civil War (doesn't have to be Blum - most of French politics was too "left wing" for the army) then the army pulls a coup and the whole thing spirals out of control, turning into a civil war.

But the forces in such a civil war would be the army versus the socialists+moderate left+center right with the communists doing whatever Stalin tells them to. Action Francaise and the Fascists would be attacked by both sides in this situation.

fasquardon

 

[Legend-in-Exile]

If France lost WW1 and suffered a similar peace to Germany? That should help to radicalise the French and cause internal divisions.

By the time of the Spanish Civil war France will likely be in a mess politically and economically. Can see that leading to a civil war.

 

[Nanwe]

If France lost WW1 and suffered a similar peace to Germany? That should help to radicalise the French and cause internal divisions.

By the time of the Spanish Civil war France will likely be in a mess politically and economically. Can see that leading to a civil war.

And why would there be a civil war in Spain with Germany winning WWI?

 

[machine3589]

And why would there be a civil war in Spain with Germany winning WWI?

Did WWI have much to do with causing the Spanish Civil War? If not, then I don't really see why we should assume it was butterflied away.

 

[Nanwe]

Did WWI have much to do with causing the Spanish Civil War? If not, then I don't really see why we should assume it was butterflied away.

Because there is a lot of events going on in Spain between 1914 and 1936 perhaps? Or the fact that the SCW is not some kind of pre-ordained event in history?

WWI led to massive inflation in Spain and the 1917 revolutionary general strike, followed by three years of considerable left-wing upheaval in the country (trienio bolchevique, 1917-20) that hardened attitudes leading to the 1923 coup against the reformist government of García Prieto.

 

[skarosianlifeform]

Perhaps France remains neutral in the Spanish War...

BUT : the Cagoule (which, OTL, had links with Italy) pushes harder in its terrorism campaign, or gots "lucky", actually managing to kill the whole government or even the whole Parliament with a well-placed bomb, or a very popular minister. While multipliating assassinations.

A new government (still Front Populaire) is constituted, and starts martial law. Moreover, all "suspects" are arrested, that include all known league members, and many entrepreneurs who were pro-Cagoule.

The official motive can be "terrorism" and/or "trahison" (since Cagoule is linked to Italy), plus association of criminals (this is actually punishable by law in France, I don't know elsewhere). Of course, all those people are to be tried, but in the meantime, dozens of thousands of people had just been arrested, and more had managed to flee (because they were warned by cop friends or things like that).

France enters a "witch hunt", because the Cagoulards and leagues have sympathizers everywhere, who help them to hide, and those people are also tracked. Including in the midst of police and administration.

Moreover, the ARAC (communist league) answers by its own agressions, threats of death...against real or supposed Cagoulards. The Party doesn't condone that but doesn't control his league either. And the ARAC gets a free pass from authorities (at most, some members spend a few weeks or days in prison before being released, and only if they did something REALLY bad), since the commies are in government, while the right-wing leagues are persecuted at the slightest offense.
Right-wing people are incensed, they find unfair that police turns a blind eye on communists but persecutes right-wing leagues, and put all the leagues plus the Cagoule in the same bag, while most of all never were terrorist.

So, France is polarized between the Front Populaire and the far-right. In the middle, republican moderate right tries to maintain its position without taking sides. They don't like Cagoulards (who are terrorists and traitors) but don't like what they see as Front Populaire growing authoritarianism. Especially as the French Communist is very strong in the Front, and they see (wrongly, Stalin never planned that) the roundups and witch hunt as prelude to a communist coup.

Perhaps, then, the Front Populaire government, fed up with far right (and its friends abroad, like Franco and Mussolini), decides to intervene directly in Spain.
They justify that with alleged links between Franco and Cagoule (I believe there were some OTL), instead of just saying "we take sides in a civil war", but nobody is fooled.

 

[Van555]

Because there is a lot of events going on in Spain between 1914 and 1936 perhaps? Or the fact that the SCW is not some kind of pre-ordained event in history?

WWI led to massive inflation in Spain and the 1917 revolutionary general strike, followed by three years of considerable left-wing upheaval in the country (trienio bolchevique, 1917-20) that hardened attitudes leading to the 1923 coup against the reformist government of García Prieto.

Hmm I may need to investigate this further.

 

[Legend-in-Exile]

Because there is a lot of events going on in Spain between 1914 and 1936 perhaps? Or the fact that the SCW is not some kind of pre-ordained event in history?

WWI led to massive inflation in Spain and the 1917 revolutionary general strike, followed by three years of considerable left-wing upheaval in the country (trienio bolchevique, 1917-20) that hardened attitudes leading to the 1923 coup against the reformist government of García Prieto.

Spain was neutral in WW1. Not sure how much who wins or loses matters. The inflation would still happen. Unless Germany wins in a month?

What I originally meant was that France was not divided enough in the 30's for an easy civil war.. Bar a coup from nowhere or some other magic.

A loss to Germany and harsh terms would likely leave them in a similar position to Germany iotl.

Of course you are right that no event is set in stone, but I'm not sure that you can say France losing alters Spain's position too much.

Perhaps the greater instability to the north could even spill over into Spain? Wouldn't be the first time.

 

[machine3589]

Because there is a lot of events going on in Spain between 1914 and 1936 perhaps? Or the fact that the SCW is not some kind of pre-ordained event in history?

Touched a nerve, I see.

The facts that "a lot of things happened in Spain between 1914. and 1936." and that "the SCW is not a pre-ordained event" do not guarantee that any change between WWI and 1936. will certainly lead to the SCW being butterflied away. It might very well end up being the case, but outright assuming that the SCW won't happen with any change doesn't seem that logical to me.

WWI led to massive inflation in Spain and the 1917 revolutionary general strike, followed by three years of considerable left-wing upheaval in the country (trienio bolchevique, 1917-20) that hardened attitudes leading to the 1923 coup against the reformist government of García Prieto.

OK, that's significant. Now, would a German victory necessarely butterfly this away?

 

[David T]

What is the best way to get Action Francaise to stage a coup against the Popular Front and plunge France into a civil war situation similar to that which is happening in Spain after the Spanish Civil War begins?

What would this do to international diplomacy and politics with Fascism clearly on the march across Europe?

Action Francaise had been seriously weakened by the Papal condemnation. La Roque and the Croix-de-Feux might seem a more likely source of the coup, but La Roque went along with the order dissolving the *ligues* and instead formed the PSF, which became more and more "moderate." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_Social_Party It has sometimes been argued that La Roque's commitment to "republican legality" was merely tactical--he knew he could not win an armed confrontation with the government. But whether this is true or not, it is hard to see him attempting a coup and even harder to see him succeeding if he did.