As a compromise settlement, could Spain be divided essentially permanently, with the Carlists turning their strongholds into the Kingdoms of Aragon and Navarra, under the PU of Infante Carlos, with the government of Isabella controlling the rest of the country? This could either be a long-term armistice, with neither side renouncing claims on the other, or as an official settlement, where both parties regarded as legitimate by the other. In either variant would this be a likely solution, or an unacceptable pseudo-compromise?
AHC: Spain Divided in First Carlist War?
- Thread starter frustrated progressive
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What about the Carlists elsewhere in Spain not under the rule of King Carlos (i.e. certain segments of Catalonia)? What about Isabelline loyalists living under Carlos, which might overlap and combine with liberal elements within a state ruled by a reactionary monarch? Plus Carlos himself seems like he was a pretty stubborn guy, so he'd need to be convinced to accept this.
Catalonia is included, see the "Aragon" part. I don't think that it would be the component of a true peace, just the lines of control in a long-lasting armistice.
So this means Castile (grey on the map below) and Granada (yellow) and the remaining colonies go to Isabela,
while Navarre (green) and Aragon-Catalonia-Valencia (brown, sans Rousillon) with the Baleares go to Carlos?
If the "division" takes place, the Carlist are "confined" to the Basque Country, Navarre, north of Catalonia and el Maestrazgo, hardly the best geographic emplacement to create a long lasting state.
When does the settlement takes place? Before or after 1836?
When does the settlement takes place? Before or after 1836?
So this means Castile (grey on the map below) and Granada (yellow) and the remaining colonies go to Isabela,
while Navarre (green) and Aragon-Catalonia-Valencia (brown, sans Rousillon) with the Baleares go to Carlos?
Pretty much, yes. Thanks for the map.
See Westphalian's map, which is the area I was originally thinking of.
Presumably it would take an 1836 or earlier POD to render the Carlists unconquerable in Aragon, Catalonia, Navarra, and the Balearics while still leaving them unable to expand their control beyond that area, but the two sides probably wouldn't agree to a ceasefire based on those terms until several years later. So, it could be anytime from 1837-1840, I'm guessing.
When was this, exactly? I'm basing this scenario on their area of control in 1836.
See the map I've just uploaded. Half of Catalonia and Valencia was out of the Carlist grasp even in their best moment, and the Balearic Islands were out of their reach.
If the Carlists doesn't get a favourable peace by 1836, they are screwed, as the liberal army led by Espartero has the upper hand and the Carlists are to have a very bad time. The longer the war last, the worse for the Carlists.
I'm afraid, but wikipedia doesn't mention the year.
The area around Morella and perhaps Castellón was the most that the Carlists under Cabrera could keep.
Not just half: the better half. Basically, any piece with enough population and trade and industry going on was firmly in liberal hands. Even the provincial capitals in the Basque Country were liberal strongholds because the strict protectionism of the Carlists was a death sentence to their elites. There is a reason Carlists were unable to enter Bilbao before 1937.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
No, 1937.
The Carlists were never even able to capture Bilbao, the industrial centre of the Basque Country and Biscay's capital, during any of the Carlist wars.
Well, then we just need to have a POD enabling them to take firmer localized control.
Would that be implausible?
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Can you imagine the Taliban being supported by either industrialists, traders or urban workers? There you have your answer.
Can you imagine the Taliban being supported by either industrialists, traders or urban workers? There you have your answer.
Exactly. Taliban took Kabul at one point by force. Bilbao could also be taken that way. It almost was, at one point.
Dr. Strangelove
Banned
Because they were running out of money and hoped that by capturing the port they'd be able to open a line of credit with Prussian or Russian bankers. Somehow I think both France and Britain (Britain had even sent an expeditionary force to assist the Cristinos) would take issue with that. Bilbao's industrial burgeoisie would have never supported the carlists, what with them wishing to restore the old privileges, including internal tolls between Navarra, the Basque Country and Castile. There's a reason carlist support came from the most rural and isolated areas in the Basque Country, Navarra, Catalonia and Galicia.